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What a Friend, Grand National
What a Friend, Grand National
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Replies: 178
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He's an undeniably well handicapped horse on strict figures. But I don't subscribe to the idea that "quirky" is an advantage round Aintree. He might take to it, he might not. But for every Last Suspect that wins a National, there are 10 winners that travel really well in the race. Anyway, he's just finished 4th in a Gold Cup, so he's hardly in need of rejuvenation. For what it's worth, I expect that to be his career high water mark. Whether he needs to repeat it to go close in a National where 10 or fewer are going to be carrying 11st plus is a different matter. I can see the draw for connections in running him, but he's not for me.
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he does jump big from time to time so he should cope. i think he might put up a bold show
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trev w
National isn't a lottery anymore. |
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Tidal Bay will run him down........
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14/1 is still a good price imv.
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Mully 22 Mar 11 09:43
Surely the race comes too soon after Cheltenham? Check out your stats for Cheltenham runners at Aintree in the last five years...absolutely woeful. This is a bookies benefit/media machine horse. They love cranking up a horse like this and turning it into a favourite. I wouldn't back it with your money. Big Buck's Orsippus Mad Max Sir Harry Ormesher General Miller (technically  )Burton Port Albertas Run Peddlers Cross From Dawn To Dusk Khyber Kim Dee Ee Williams Megastar All ran at the festival last year and won at Aintree. The stats for those who WON at the festival mightn't read as well however |
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Two of that list were certs anyway [;)]Maybe I should have expanded to "Those that ran in the Top 4 in Cheltenham Festival races".
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WHAT A GREAT CHANCE WHAT A FRIEND 4.1 ON THE DAY
14.1 NOW GET ON HE IS THE CLASS NAG IN THE RACE |
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Mully My will ran a blinder in the National after coming 5th in the Gold Cup. WAF is a far better horse than him. Plus if the race takes it's toll it will at the end when he's traded at 5's 4's and 3's in running like big Fella thanks last year.
When your on at 50's down to 16's there's some serious room for trading here.  |
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If you can find yourself in a winning position out of it fair enough. I shall be there in the stands cheering on some others
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would have enjoyed trading my 200 if i hadnt done so last tuesday CV! :(
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if it jumps round aintree i will be amazed,even in gold cup ran as if something is hurting him, max lay.
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Ran as if something hurting him? You read some really daft stuff on these forums.
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career best by 9 pounds i think
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watch the race again.
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WAF rated 171 now. Will be off 156 in the National.
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Flush.....if your comments relate to his high head carriage,that is just a trait of this particular animal.If it relates to something else,then I guess you have seen something that no-one else has.
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I was there at Newbury when he came 2nd at short price & I backed him. Looked decidely 'iffy' at the busienss end of the race imho. Have a feeling he may well bag a place but I doubt he has the attitude needed to win.
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One of my favourite tweets. Joe C must be top price
 @carvillshill He really is a pig though, What A Friend. Would fancy one of the police horses to do him in a finish.... #mycoral 9:18 PM Mar 13th via web in reply to carvillshill jamesaknight James Knight |
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agreed he shows some dodgy head carriage....but lets not forget he's won 5/10 chases ffs
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What A Friend has a stone in hand only if we believe his Gold Cup rating which, according to BHA handicapper Phil Smith, is based on Midnight Chase having run up to his mark. This also means Denman and Kauto Star running roughly to theirs.
Smith wrote: I have based the race around Midnight Chase (163-163) beaten 19 lengths who has won four handicaps at Cheltenham so it seems reasonable to assume he has run to his rating. Denman (179-177) must have come close to his Hennessy third, while Kauto Star (174-173) has put up his best performance since the 2009 King George. What A Friend (159-171) has always looked in need of decent ground and some form of headgear and would now be 15lbs. well in for the John Smith’s Grand National where he is due to run off 156. Now we are past the Gold Cup euphoria, I find all this increasingly hard to believe. The two Ditcheat champions were widely believed to be in decline, and Midnight Chase's yard is not firing (and though Midnight Opera won today, that was due in large part to the odds-on jolly being unable to jump). |
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charwell, agree he was a mess in the finish there, as he has been in the past, but thats the whole point of the blinkers he had on in the gold cup, which did the trick. also that race was 3 mile on tacky ground, is a different animal on good ground, n relishes further trips
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ram...for me..the old boys jumped superbly throughout..and did'nt come across as in decline...even though we know they must be..
it was the fastest gold cup ever..i think..so marks of 177 down 2 for denman and down one for kauto dont seem that far wide to me...so on that basis i'd be happy to agree with WAF 171. but as a backer i probably would[;)] |
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No evidence for me that Denman was ever in decline. Hennessey run was very good given the weight he was giving away and Diamond Harry and Burton Port are certainly no mugs
Kauto Star possibly, although given he bled in the KG it is hard to tell. The ground in the GC supposedly better for him than it would have been for Denman but i've never understood the whole Denman needs cut to be at his best discussion. It's not necessary for him at all. What A Friend is absolutely chucked in and the best horse to contest the Gold Cup for a good few years imv |
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^ Gold Cup in last sentence should read Grand National ffs
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If this thing wins the National I will give up the game.
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^ daft statement
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Honestly cant see him taking to the place.
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I don't think he'll like it.
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Waffer doesn't mind the hustle and bustle of big fields, think he'll be ok tbh
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Clearly the mist talented horse to contest the National in many years.
2 Grade 1 wins and a Hennessy 2nd. |
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i have followed waf since he first ran and bet him a good few times.
i have seen a lot of horses who jump like waf and i will be laying him full bank, if he finishes course i will be surprised, he is no alverton and alverton jumped a fence a lot better than waf you will be accomodated cvb  |
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I've him at 50's down to 25's and 16's e/w. All I want is him to trade at 6's 5's 4's in running and I'm laughing
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trev w -- the fastest Gold Cup ever probably just means they were running over the wrong trip after the rails movement to open up fresh ground.
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dont think so mate[;)] i think it means they got from a to b quicker than any other gold cup horses because they are an excellent bunch
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i love this horse,im a sucker for these classy quirky types,only thing that would put me off is he might spit the dummy out if not liking the look of those fences,he cant have the ground firm enough
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It would be his jumping which would be a worry. He jumps in the main like he doesnt look and holds his breath and sometimes jumps quite high without the confidence needed for the Aintree fences. I can see him pecking on landing badly, stuttering to find his stride etc. Not for me. You need a confident jumper when carrying a high weight.3 or 4 mistakes and the horse will be struggling. He has the pace but he needs to jump better.
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If he jumped like Ballabriggs he would be a good thing.
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jockeys say u need a smart horse that clouts one early on and learns quick. i actually liked the fact that he balooned a few before, it has been known to happen[;)] look at the first fence jumps
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Here is Cheltenham CoC Simon Claisse on the morning of Gold Cup day talking about his plan to run the Gold Cup over the wrong trip.
http://cheltenham.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/good-ground-for-gold-cup-day-at-cheltenham/831104/ A mile and a half of fresh ground has been provided for the chase course while the hurdles course remains good, good to soft in places. Speaking to Sky Sports News at 6.50am, Claisse said: "We've provided fresh ground on the chase course and the team have been out moving about a mile and a half of rail. "My forecasters is saying we'll get 2mm of rain in the next couple of hours, the rain is about an hour away, and the going is good all round on the chase course. |