Medermit

Dont back him for it until late, he should be going for it he is better suited to the extra trip but connections being snobby and will end up in Arkle imo, probably unplaced, outpaced from 2 out.

NRNB will do tho. Ain't got speed for Arkle imo.

I think the ankle is the race to go for, the last few winners all seem to want a bit further than 2 miles, eg. Sizing Europe and forpaddy going for king George and my way de solon was a staying hurdler

^^^ oh ffs is there another new race at this years festival. This is starting to take the Piss

We had the Arkle now we have The Ankle

The Ankle is at Aintree, just above The Elbow

apologies for my spelling and grammar, thought I was on the betfair forum.

I thought the Elbow was above the Arse. Suppose I dont know my ...

if he runs in arkle his jumping will let him down,too quick.the jewson race is better for him i feel,but see no reason at all why he should beat hells bay.was beaten fair and square by him the other day and had HB not clouted the last would have been pretty comfortable.

There has to be a few will beat him for pace in the Arkle all jumping well that's for sure.

Irish Arkle looking a very interesting race with a couple who could also end up in either the Arkle or Jewsons.

Loosen My Load and Reve De Sivola the only high profile horses on for the Jewson and they have been fairly beaten this season so far that race is still up for grabs imo.

Both races look weak IMO - if the Arkle is there to be had on good to soft I expect him to end up there.

WHAT WE NEED IS THE ADDITION OF A 2M 2F RACE TO PLUG THE GAP, THAT WOULD BE PERFECT!

LOL Ming

Soft gnd and Ghizao wins this.
Damn this is a weak renewal, will c+p my trends for the race on here tomorrow.

Cheers downallstar. I think the Jewsons will be much weaker than the Arkle tbh.

agree with most of the posters if they run in the arkle they have made the wrong decision.

but that of course doesnt mean they will make the right one

Think the Arkle is the only way to go myself, Ghizao to beat and not keen on any other poss runners bar Mikael if they go that way and win a race before hand

Medermit hurdles rating is a big pointer, added stamina and jumping improving will be hard to beat I hope!

After his debut win at Aintree I was massively put off. He then refused on his next start. But since then he has come on a load and improved with each run. I think the Arkle is his most likely target and it would be silly to ignore his improvement lately. His jumping has got better. 14/1 aint a bad price given his hurdles rating as pointed  by others. imo

Arkle Novices Chase 2miles


Past Winners
Horse/age/price/lto/seasons form/Hurdles OR
2010 Sizing Europe..........8yo 6/1 -1 - 1,1,1,1 - 160
2009 Forpadydeplasterer.. 7yo 8/1 -1 - 1,2,2,2 - 143
2008 Tidal Bay ................7yo 6/1 -2- 1,1,1,2 - 149
2007 My Way De Solzen..7yo 7/2 -1- (2)1,2,1,1 - 163 - (hurdles form in brackets)
2006 Voy Por Ustudes......5yo 15/2 -1- 1,1,1,1 - 130
2005 Contraband..............7yo 7/1 -3- 2,2,1,3 - 143
2004 Well Chief ...............5yo 9/1 -1- 1 - 142
2003 Azertyioup ..............6yo 5/4f -1- 1,1,1 - 150
2002 Moscow Flyer..........8yo 11/2 -F- F,1,1,1,F - 151
2000 Tiutchev ..................7yo 8/1 -1- 1,1 - 156


Age
Only two winners older than seven since 1990 from 73 runners; Moscow Flyer & Sizing Europe; although quite a few 8yo's have placed during that time. However, in the previous 15 years, seven winners were 8yo's!! The four wins by 5yos have all come since 1998, although they no longer get a weight allowance.

Of the 30 placed horses in the last 10 years we have:

5yos 7/30 (only one to place since the weight allowance was removed was a mare receiving the mare's allowance)

6yos 4/30 (a worrying trend)

7yos 11/30

8yos 8/30


Winners Age
5yo 2/10 (none since the weight allowance was removed)
6yo 1/10
7yo 5/10
8yo 2/10


Form
22/23 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in all completed starts over fences.
12/12 had ran 1-5 times over fences
12/12 had won at least once over fences
11/12 hadn't fallen over fences - Moscow Flyer the exception.
11/12 had an Official rating of at least 142 over hurdles.
Only one winning favourite in the last 12 runnings; however the last 20 winners started at 11/1 or shorter.



Place Trends
24/30 placed horses won on their last start
28/30 placed horses had 1-5 chases starts
27/30 placed horses had 2-5 chase starts
30/30 placed horses had won at least 1 chase
26/30 placed horses had won at least 2 chases
26/30 placed horses had a Hurdles OR of at least 140 (Have given Kicking King provisional 140 mark based on his novice form)


Shortlist

Horses that have finished 1st or 2nd in all starts over fences, with a black mark against any fallers; must have had a rating over hurdles of at least 142; and posted a career best over fences lto. Preference given to 7 year olds for the win, and 7/8yo's for the place.

Horse - Age - Form - Hurdles OR
Ghizao - 7yo - 1,1 - 135
Finian's Rainbow - 8yo - 1 - 142
Medermit - 7yo - 1,R,1,2 - 158
Royal Charm - 6yo - 1,1 - 145
Captain Chris - 7yo - 2,2 - 146
Noble Prince - 7yo - 1,2 - 148
Realt Dubh - 7yo - 1,F,1,2,1 - 135
Flat Out - 6yo - 1 - 142

Cheers downallstar!

Good stats. IMO Medermit at 14/1 is good value. Placed at festival before, King has won arkle with my way and voy por and often need something that gets a bit further to win at festival.

With Flat Out now out for season, race starting to get a bit thin. Anyone know potential next race?

Now hopefully goes on to win arkle, jumped and travelled very well yesterday, come on!

Medermit won`t win an Arkle. Was fortunate to win yesterday and is not in the same class as Finians Rainbow or Ghizao. You are throwing your money away imo. Couldn`t beat Hells Bay for goodness sake!!!!!

ive thought for a while that the winner will come from top two in betting may dutch them.

thefarmer

Remind us over what distance the Arkle is run and over what distance Medermit was beaten by Hell's Bay? The horse may or may not win but the way he travelled and jumped yesterday and his ability as a hurdler make him a serious player in an Arkle which doesn't appear to have a truly outstanding candidate at this stage.

Fortunate to win yesterday???

Idled in front, had plenty in hand at the line imo.

that was a trip probably captain chris needed aswell, think medermit 2 miles is medermits trip now his jumping looks settled, so econmical.

Aftertiming alert!

Backed Medermit and watched him the whole way round and it was the best round of jumping I think I've seen anywhere since Somersby won at Sandown (beating Crack Away Jack) in December 09.

A repeat of that over 2 miles at Cheltenham and I would think the current 5/1 would be looking rather tasty.

the farmer must have been on a whiskey cider mix to think Medermit was a fortunate winner.

I see there is still the odd fcukin idiot on here

King says will go for the Arkle. Looks the right choice imo. Need to stay 2 and a half miles to win the Arkle imo.

I'm on GHIZAO at 12's, but must admit the way MEDERMIT won last Saturday was a worry for me. He ticks all the statistical boxes.
The only doubt I have is his Cheltenham form, as he's not won there yet. He should have won the Supreme (as - in my opinion - he's shown he's a better hurdler than Go Native), but at the end of the day, he didn't.
All his wins - apart from a Plumpton novice chase - have come on flat tracks.

Sandown not really a flat track tbh.

i thought economical summed him up pretty well. nice to see him win today.

Was clever at his fences. Will take all the beating in the Arkle imo.

I admit, easter1986, that I was teasing a little with the "flat" track issue.
But if you compare Sandown with Cheltenham, they are not similar. There is about an 18-metre height difference between the highest and lowest points at Cheltenham.
Medermit jumped really well at Sandown, and after the 'pond' fence he looked to be cantering with the rest all in trouble. It was a very impressive display.

agree Baracouda have backed also at decent prices and looks very interesting for he Arkle, jumped very well, travelled by far the best in a decent looking race and 2 mile trip is perfect will be right there as the top rated hurdler.

anyone who says too slow or wont run well at Chelts are talking rubbish in my books the one to beat and will probably be fav on the day. Finnians Rainbow's odds are very short in my opinion.

top rated hurdler for sure,but this is a chase,and from what i have seen of him at 2m over fences,i have my doubts to be honest.FR looks much more accomplished jumping at speed imo

Not sure how you can be that impressed with what FR has done so far over fences, going off at 2/5 and 1/7.

Only thing with a pulse it's beaten is Hell's Bay, who had to give weight, and is a 2m 4f/2m 5f horse anyway.

Only 2 of the last 19 Arkle winners were aged over 7. Medermit is 7, FR is 8.

7 of the last 16 winners have been French bred, despite only about 25% of the horses being French bred. Medermit is French bred.

5 of the last 10 winners were the highest rated hurdler in the field. I think I'm right in saying that distinction this year will go to...Medermit.

The ability to see out a longer trip than the 2 miles and to jump superbly (as it did on Saturday) puts this one high up my list for the week with Persian Snow (Bumper), Menorah (Champion Hurdle) and
Big Zeb (Champion Chase)

hes jumped and travelled well over 2m,thats what i have been impressed with.Medermit has not.

To win an Arkle it helps to jump and travel,basic but true.Yes it also helps if you stay well,i think that both will do that.

Now Med might do that on the day at 2m,but i have my doubts,i dont have any with FR.

Fair enough. We'll find out on the day.

Looking at your stats Baracouda it seems as though Mikhail D`Haguenet is the likely winner and not Medermit. He fits all your stats and is probably the best horse in the field although his lack of experience is a worry at this stage. Interesting.

Not saying FR cant win but I'd be disapointed if I couldnt jump and travel in the class he has lined up in so far over fences

I agree.

As for MDH, you are correct, although another stat (I didn't mention) is that finishing in the 1st 2 last time out is virtually a necessity for an Arkle winner.

MDH has 2 entries for this weekend, no idea which one he will be going for, Saturday at Leopardstown I guess, but that's 2m 5f and the Navan race on Sunday is 2m. Mullins hasn't updated his Twitter since April, so that's no help! The horse has RSA and World Hurdle entries, though I think the latter must be unlikely. Surely if he goes to Leopardstown then that makes the RSA more likely?

Plus MDH's sire has had 20 hurdle winnwers but no chase winners .

I see Quel Esprit is entered in the Moriarty as well and he is Mullins RSA horse as i understand. It wouldn`t surprise me to see MDH rerouted to Navan on Sunday for an easier prep ahead of the Arkle. I think we will know a lot more after this weekend but in anticipation of a big run from MDH i have taken some of the 38 available on here. The MDH sire stat is certainly a worry although i wouldn`t place a great deal of significance on such a small sample size.

surely the arkle contender who has travelled best and jumped best is ghizao??if not i dont know what ive been watching..

Agree about Ghizao. His form is head and shoulders above the rest at the moment. He beat Captain Chris far easier than Medermit did giving him 10lbs. Quite why they are so close in the betting is a mystery to me. Having said that i still feel that MDH is worth a punt at big odds as i can see his odds cut massively if he wins convincingly over the weekend.

irrespective of what wins the arkle ,i agree with tweedle on the evidence ive seen sofa

thefarmer Date Joined: 06 Apr 08
Add contact | Send message When: 11 Feb 11 20:41 Agree about Ghizao. His form is head and shoulders above the rest at the moment. He beat Captain Chris far easier than Medermit did giving him 10lbs. Quite why they are so close in the betting is a mystery to me. Having said that i still feel that MDH is worth a punt at big odds as i can see his odds cut massively if he wins convincingly over the weekend.

- Captain Chris was much better going right handed and was suited by the step up in trip, to compare the form of Medermit and Ghizao through Captain Chris directly would be inaccurate in my opinion. - Wasn't a Medermit fan until he won last time.

I am sorry shevvy but i will have to disagree with you on that one. I was expecting a vastly improved performance from Captain Chris going right handed but his jumping was probably even worse last weekend than it was at Newbury. How he managed to get within half a length was remarkable given his jumping errors. I wouldn`t say i am a Ghizao fan but anyone who says Medermit has superior form to Ghizao is clearly blinkered imo.

fair point re Ghizao,he has looked good so far.i have a feeling though that FR will prove to be different class,but i CAN see why anyone would prefer Ghizao,i dont,but then my nice price on FR may be something to do with it

i do genuinely feel that FR will prove to be something special at 2m chasing,hopefully the horse will back that up.

MDH goes for the longer race today, think that rules him out of the arkle.

also throw in the fact that he was winning over 2m4/2m5 2years ago..had a year off with injury..and in two runs this season,fell and ran a stinker....anyone still wanna back it for cheltenham??

Mikael right in the mix for the RSA based on that, cruising and just being put in the race before being badly hampered there. The horse in front of him beat RSA 2nd fav Jessie's Dream last time so asking a lot to give him such a big head start and beat him.