Horse Antepost
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Any views on which race this will go for at the Festival? The Jewsons seems the best option for him. Was really impressed with his last run, after watching it a few times think he should of won as Hells Bay seemed to get first run. Hells Bay scraped the paint all the way around aswell. Anyone put me off taking a double figure price? Any firms NRNB on this?
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Dont back him for it until late, he should be going for it he is better suited to the extra trip but connections being snobby and will end up in Arkle imo, probably unplaced, outpaced from 2 out.
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NRNB will do tho. Ain't got speed for Arkle imo.
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I think the ankle is the race to go for, the last few winners all seem to want a bit further than 2 miles, eg. Sizing Europe and forpaddy going for king George and my way de solon was a staying hurdler
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^^^ oh ffs is there another new race at this years festival. This is starting to take the Piss
We had the Arkle now we have The Ankle  |
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The Ankle is at Aintree, just above The Elbow
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apologies for my spelling and grammar, thought I was on the betfair forum.
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I thought the Elbow was above the Arse. Suppose I dont know my ...
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if he runs in arkle his jumping will let him down,too quick.the jewson race is better for him i feel,but see no reason at all why he should beat hells bay.was beaten fair and square by him the other day and had HB not clouted the last would have been pretty comfortable.
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There has to be a few will beat him for pace in the Arkle all jumping well that's for sure.
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Irish Arkle looking a very interesting race with a couple who could also end up in either the Arkle or Jewsons.
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Loosen My Load and Reve De Sivola the only high profile horses on for the Jewson and they have been fairly beaten this season so far that race is still up for grabs imo.
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Both races look weak IMO - if the Arkle is there to be had on good to soft I expect him to end up there.
WHAT WE NEED IS THE ADDITION OF A 2M 2F RACE TO PLUG THE GAP, THAT WOULD BE PERFECT!  |
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LOL Ming
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Soft gnd and Ghizao wins this.
Damn this is a weak renewal, will c+p my trends for the race on here tomorrow. |
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Cheers downallstar. I think the Jewsons will be much weaker than the Arkle tbh.
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agree with most of the posters if they run in the arkle they have made the wrong decision.
but that of course doesnt mean they will make the right one |
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Think the Arkle is the only way to go myself, Ghizao to beat and not keen on any other poss runners bar Mikael if they go that way and win a race before hand
Medermit hurdles rating is a big pointer, added stamina and jumping improving will be hard to beat I hope! |
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After his debut win at Aintree I was massively put off. He then refused on his next start. But since then he has come on a load and improved with each run. I think the Arkle is his most likely target and it would be silly to ignore his improvement lately. His jumping has got better. 14/1 aint a bad price given his hurdles rating as pointed by others. imo
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Arkle Novices Chase 2miles
Past Winners Horse/age/price/lto/seasons form/Hurdles OR 2010 Sizing Europe..........8yo 6/1 -1 - 1,1,1,1 - 160 2009 Forpadydeplasterer.. 7yo 8/1 -1 - 1,2,2,2 - 143 2008 Tidal Bay ................7yo 6/1 -2- 1,1,1,2 - 149 2007 My Way De Solzen..7yo 7/2 -1- (2)1,2,1,1 - 163 - (hurdles form in brackets) 2006 Voy Por Ustudes......5yo 15/2 -1- 1,1,1,1 - 130 2005 Contraband..............7yo 7/1 -3- 2,2,1,3 - 143 2004 Well Chief ...............5yo 9/1 -1- 1 - 142 2003 Azertyioup ..............6yo 5/4f -1- 1,1,1 - 150 2002 Moscow Flyer..........8yo 11/2 -F- F,1,1,1,F - 151 2000 Tiutchev ..................7yo 8/1 -1- 1,1 - 156 Age Only two winners older than seven since 1990 from 73 runners; Moscow Flyer & Sizing Europe; although quite a few 8yo's have placed during that time. However, in the previous 15 years, seven winners were 8yo's!! The four wins by 5yos have all come since 1998, although they no longer get a weight allowance. Of the 30 placed horses in the last 10 years we have: 5yos 7/30 (only one to place since the weight allowance was removed was a mare receiving the mare's allowance) 6yos 4/30 (a worrying trend) 7yos 11/30 8yos 8/30 Winners Age 5yo 2/10 (none since the weight allowance was removed) 6yo 1/10 7yo 5/10 8yo 2/10 Form 22/23 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in all completed starts over fences. 12/12 had ran 1-5 times over fences 12/12 had won at least once over fences 11/12 hadn't fallen over fences - Moscow Flyer the exception. 11/12 had an Official rating of at least 142 over hurdles. Only one winning favourite in the last 12 runnings; however the last 20 winners started at 11/1 or shorter. Place Trends 24/30 placed horses won on their last start 28/30 placed horses had 1-5 chases starts 27/30 placed horses had 2-5 chase starts 30/30 placed horses had won at least 1 chase 26/30 placed horses had won at least 2 chases 26/30 placed horses had a Hurdles OR of at least 140 (Have given Kicking King provisional 140 mark based on his novice form) Shortlist Horses that have finished 1st or 2nd in all starts over fences, with a black mark against any fallers; must have had a rating over hurdles of at least 142; and posted a career best over fences lto. Preference given to 7 year olds for the win, and 7/8yo's for the place. Horse - Age - Form - Hurdles OR Ghizao - 7yo - 1,1 - 135 Finian's Rainbow - 8yo - 1 - 142 Medermit - 7yo - 1,R,1,2 - 158 Royal Charm - 6yo - 1,1 - 145 Captain Chris - 7yo - 2,2 - 146 Noble Prince - 7yo - 1,2 - 148 Realt Dubh - 7yo - 1,F,1,2,1 - 135 Flat Out - 6yo - 1 - 142 |
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Cheers downallstar!
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Good stats. IMO Medermit at 14/1 is good value. Placed at festival before, King has won arkle with my way and voy por and often need something that gets a bit further to win at festival.
With Flat Out now out for season, race starting to get a bit thin. Anyone know potential next race? |
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Now hopefully goes on to win arkle, jumped and travelled very well yesterday, come on!
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Medermit won`t win an Arkle. Was fortunate to win yesterday and is not in the same class as Finians Rainbow or Ghizao. You are throwing your money away imo. Couldn`t beat Hells Bay for goodness sake!!!!!
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ive thought for a while that the winner will come from top two in betting may dutch them.
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thefarmer
Remind us over what distance the Arkle is run and over what distance Medermit was beaten by Hell's Bay? The horse may or may not win but the way he travelled and jumped yesterday and his ability as a hurdler make him a serious player in an Arkle which doesn't appear to have a truly outstanding candidate at this stage. |
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Fortunate to win yesterday???
Idled in front, had plenty in hand at the line imo. |
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that was a trip probably captain chris needed aswell, think medermit 2 miles is medermits trip now his jumping looks settled, so econmical.
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Aftertiming alert!
Backed Medermit and watched him the whole way round and it was the best round of jumping I think I've seen anywhere since Somersby won at Sandown (beating Crack Away Jack) in December 09. A repeat of that over 2 miles at Cheltenham and I would think the current 5/1 would be looking rather tasty. |
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the farmer must have been on a whiskey cider mix to think Medermit was a fortunate winner.
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I see there is still the odd fcukin idiot on here
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King says will go for the Arkle. Looks the right choice imo. Need to stay 2 and a half miles to win the Arkle imo.
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I'm on GHIZAO at 12's, but must admit the way MEDERMIT won last Saturday was a worry for me. He ticks all the statistical boxes.
The only doubt I have is his Cheltenham form, as he's not won there yet. He should have won the Supreme (as - in my opinion - he's shown he's a better hurdler than Go Native), but at the end of the day, he didn't. All his wins - apart from a Plumpton novice chase - have come on flat tracks. |
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Sandown not really a flat track tbh.
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i thought economical summed him up pretty well. nice to see him win today.
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Was clever at his fences. Will take all the beating in the Arkle imo.
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I admit, easter1986, that I was teasing a little with the "flat" track issue.
But if you compare Sandown with Cheltenham, they are not similar. There is about an 18-metre height difference between the highest and lowest points at Cheltenham. Medermit jumped really well at Sandown, and after the 'pond' fence he looked to be cantering with the rest all in trouble. It was a very impressive display. |
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agree Baracouda have backed also at decent prices and looks very interesting for he Arkle, jumped very well, travelled by far the best in a decent looking race and 2 mile trip is perfect will be right there as the top rated hurdler.
anyone who says too slow or wont run well at Chelts are talking rubbish in my books the one to beat and will probably be fav on the day. Finnians Rainbow's odds are very short in my opinion. |
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top rated hurdler for sure,but this is a chase,and from what i have seen of him at 2m over fences,i have my doubts to be honest.FR looks much more accomplished jumping at speed imo
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