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These 69 comments are related to the topic:
Welsh National - Fabalu

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Replies: 69
By:
jameschildshieldwinner
When: 05 Dec 10 09:54
Beryl, Bluesea is not in the P.P. @ Leopardstown. Whilst the trainer did not totally commit to the Welsh Nat.,it is the only race Bluesea is in over the Christmas period.
By:
Beryl
When: 05 Dec 10 11:10
Hi James,

I was referring to Becauseicouldnotsee.

I've already backed Bluesea at 14s for the WN. I'm worried now I won't get a run for my money after reading the trainers comments. Hopefully the warmer weather promised for the end of this week will hang around for a couple of weeks and convince him to run her.
I think she has an outstanding chance - An Irish National winner running off 140 with conditions very likely to suit.
I would fear Becauseicouldnotsee if he turned up as he to is well treated and improving.
By:
betilyerded
When: 06 Dec 10 20:05
Booster. I think youre getting a little carried away with Dance Islands form. His defeat of Dream Alliance over hurdles -he was getting best part of 2 stone after a long lay off. (The 3rd that day hasnt won since). He won a tinpot 4 runner novice chase beating a 10 yo who hadnt won a race for 3 years and a Nicholls horse beaten out of sight in the Badger Ales. Dance Island was stuffed next time by Blazing bailey who in turn got humped next time. I ask you to watch again the Aintree race and the heap that they jumped the last in. The race was slow by 30 seconds on GOOD ground which to my mind suggests it is very suspicious form and I stand by my comments regarding Burton Port that I made earlier. I agree that the Midlands National form as such isnt up to much but the horse showed lots of guts to win which you obviously need to win at Chepstow. I was taken by the way he bombed clear in a novice chase at Chepstow despite being hampered twice on the run in. It reminded me so much of when Mini Sensation won the Welsh National - the difference being in the region of 25lb!
Red and White - I was referring to Tom Segals comments regarding Dance Island needing better ground and then tipping him for a race that is usually run on bad ground. He does suggest that its factored in the price which is fair but the chances of "better" ground in late December seem a touch remote to me.
By:
booster
When: 07 Dec 10 06:05
Betilyerded. point taken about the Aintree race but it's a fact that he's rated at least 7lbs lower than any of the other horses in the top 5 and all he did was stay on up the straight looking like he needed further. The horses he beat easily on debut at Warwick were no slower than L'Aventure, a close up second of only 3 finishers over 4 miles at Uttoxeter.

At Chepstow, Dream Alliance won the Welsh National next time so I'm not certain he was that unfit. I backed him in the hurdle race as a good judge I know reckoned he was thrown in at the weights on chase form. The Real Deal was also pretty decent at the time but has admittedly gone nowhere since.

On balance, I'd say 33-1 more attractive than 12-1 the 150 rated Synchronised.
By:
red and white
When: 07 Dec 10 08:06
Was puzzled by Dance Island's omission from the antepost betting list in yesterday's post. Doesn't seem to be a problem. I'm not a fan of the paper - bring back the Life!
By:
betilyerded
When: 07 Dec 10 15:44
Fair enough booster. We'll agree to disagree as they say, racings all about opinions after all. Good luck with your bet anyway - lets hope the race is actually on after all this horrible weather. I havent gone in on Synchronised as I missed the price and i am worried about his rating though he is on an upward curve. Ive had a bit e/w on Maktu at 25's as I recall Pat Murphy stating last season that this would be its target and he did win it with Supreme Glory. There was plenty to like about his reappearance and hope theres more to come - just not sure he has the class to win. Like bigbucksanders I am warming to the chance of Notre Pere who has definitely been given a chance the t'handicapper and put in a very promising run last time. If memory serves he absolutely hosed up a couple of  years back so 16's isnt a bad price. I was also looking at Officier De Reserve who ran well in the same renewal and hinted at ability with V Williams last season. However he ran abysmally last time out and cant be backed on the back of that performance.
By:
booster
When: 07 Dec 10 16:24
Funny you should mention Maktu as I liked his first run and had a look at the form when the weights came out and thought he'd have a chance but price has shortened a bit now. He must go well anyway. The one of Venetia's I like is Summery Justice as I was very impressed at Bangor when he beat Buffalo Bob. Looked like he'd love a step up in trip. Notre Pere did look like he was running well when hampered at Aintree but hadn't shown much for a while.

I'm like you, can't wait for racing to start, looks like Cheltenham this weekend will be a great card, then we need Kempton and Chepstow to be on for a Merry Christmas. Oh and Ascot for the Ladbroke.
By:
stevo1
When: 07 Dec 10 16:33
Maktu should have good racing weight,as weights will rise, loves soft and Chepstow.
As poster above stated not sure if classy enough, but may not have to be in what could be sub-standard renewal?
By:
Reefer 2001
When: 07 Dec 10 21:17
Plenty of Maktu fans on here.  I got what I could at 25's with Billys and took some more 20's.  The positives for this horse are unbelievebale and the one thing nobody has mentioned is his sire is the same as Dream Alliance, another postive.  Here's todays update and all is going well so far.  14's is still a very good price.

Pat Murphy's two-year plan will finally be acted out later this month when Maktu challenges for a slice of glory in the Coral Welsh National.

Murphy, whose greatest success as a trainer was in the demanding Chepstow handicap with Supreme Glory back in 2001, has been convinced Maktu has the right attributes since his hurdling days and bookmakers seem to agree - the chestnut is no bigger than 14-1 in the ante-post market.

Maktu has won at the course twice already and acquitted himself well in a busy but fairly low-key first season over fences before finishing a close second to King Fontaine in a handicap at Haydock.

The cold spell scuppered another possible outing, but Murphy, based in East Garston near Hungerford, is undeterred.

He said: "We haven't been badly hit by the weather and it would have been nice to have given him another run at Chepstow last Saturday but he's a really clean-winded horse and he'll have no problems with fitness."

Murphy's forward-planning comes from his early inspirations.

He continued: "Two years ago he ran in a three-mile handicap hurdle on Welsh National day and I said to the owners that we'd be back for the National itself two years later.

"So basically his career has been counting back from December 27, 2010.

"From my time with Pat Taaffe and Dermot Weld, I learned that you have to plan ahead.

"Dermot is particularly good at earmarking targets a long way ahead - he didn't go and win the Belmont Stakes on a whim, it was a year in the planning."

Comparing Maktu with Supreme Glory, Murphy assessed: "They are both good stayers who jump well, so you would say there are similarities, although this one would be a bit speedier.

"Mind you, Supreme Glory would find another 10 miles an hour whenever you put a row of fences in front of him!"

Lucinda Russell reports Silver By Nature to be on course for another crack at the race having been beaten just three-quarters of a length into second by Dream Alliance last December.

The grey was well beaten in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury last month for Russell expects him to improve for that first run of the campaign.

"He was quite tired after Newbury. It took quite a bit out of him and it was probably the travelling as well," said the Kinross trainer.

"We felt he might need his first race and it certainly was the case.

"He's come out of it fine. We've given him an easy week and he's now back in full training again."

Silver By Nature is a 12-1 shot with the sponsors for the Welsh National over a stamina-sapping
By:
sintonian
When: 08 Dec 10 08:45
I think Synchronised is a shocking price currently tbh. He is lightly raced and will like conditions, but when he won the Uttoxeter National ApMcCoy had to get off afterwards as the horse half-collapsed and was all out shattered. Something you might expect given the test of the race, but he is 7lb higher here and we've only seen him once since when he was beat 36 lengths last time over hurdles. That race was obviously a prep, but it's not certain that the Uttoxeter has not left it's mark imo.

What were the reasons PW put up for backing ?
By:
bigmart
When: 08 Dec 10 19:03
synchronised makes far too many mystakes not for me !
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 08 Dec 10 19:32
any currency for me, will plod plod plod when most have cried enough, can see him in the frame
By:
betilyerded
When: 08 Dec 10 20:12
Sintonian - you can hear TS reasons for putting up Synchronised for the race on RPTV but basically he won nicely at the course last season and he stayed and stayed when he won the Midlands national. Thinks hes the right type.
TINnotaTON - Im begining to think Any Currency is tripless. You would think a staying on 3rd over 3miles at Chelters in Dec behind the likes of The Package and The Totherone would set him up for the 4 miler at the festival but even with the extra mile and an arguably easier race he still gave an identical effort and stayed on too late. His target was the staying handicap at the called off Sandown meeting last week so they obviously feel he needs a vertical finish to have a chance. He will pop up one day but where?
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 08 Dec 10 20:23
your probably right mate, would just back him for the reason i gave above.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 08 Dec 10 22:21
Would be sceptical about the Midlands National form - only three finished and it was run in a swimming pool. Giles Cross pulled up when he reappeared and L'Aventure not sighted since. Type of race to bottom a horse.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 08 Dec 10 22:23
Sorry, L'Aventure retired but you get the point.
By:
childofthesixties
When: 09 Dec 10 08:22
i like the look of maktu but one i fancy at a massive price is flight commander,he was a top notch hurdler rated 154,he will run off a mark of 130 if he takes part,his novice campaign has been slow but he could have been layed out for a race like this,i notice he is entered for a hot novice race at cheltenham saturday,maybe it is his prep,also he won in the sludge at chepstow as a novice hurdler
By:
betilyerded
When: 09 Dec 10 18:09
I take it you mean Flight Leader. I agree he does have decent hurdle form but has yet to show a glimmer of that over fences, beaten a country mile behind Synchronised and Maktu last season. Cant see it myself unless it hoses up at the weekend. Oh and the last 10 yo to win this was Riverside Boy (having been 2nd the previous season).
TINaTON - see your horse is running tomorrow. E/W steal??!!
By:
TINnotaTON
When: 09 Dec 10 18:40
he's tripless BET, 5 mile 1 1/2 furlongs yes, tomorrows trip no, Laugh
seriously may have a place wager but he's 6lb higher tomorrow due to being out the handicap
By:
ak1979
When: 10 Dec 10 08:37
Fabalu not running?
By:
GI MAC
When: 10 Dec 10 08:51
Sadly no  Sad

He was taken out of the betting before the last declaration stage. Not actually heard what the reason was.
By:
ak1979
When: 10 Dec 10 09:06
He was pulled out of the Becher too, something cant be right :(
By:
Fabulous
When: 10 Dec 10 09:09
I've not been able to find out what's up with him, a bit worrying, he's surely close to a return to action if he's getting these entries!
By:
javedu
When: 13 Dec 10 19:34
From www.DavidParryracing.com;
"Having pulled up sharply at Cheltenham on saturday, Galant Nuit has been checked over by our vets. Whilst nothing serious, he does have soreness in a heel & as that means missing a few weeks work, he is out of the Welsh National. We will see what happens but most likely scenario is that he heads to Newcastle for the Eider chase, to Cheltenham for the Kim Muir (3rd last year) or to Uttoxeter for the Midlands National."
By:
Ilnamar
When: 14 Dec 10 10:43
What actual weight will the top weight carry (is it 12-0?) and what horse is this likely to be?

thx in advance...
By:
boy wonder 07
When: 14 Dec 10 11:14
silver birch 11-12
By:
betilyerded
When: 14 Dec 10 11:23
I think he means Silver By Nature. Weights due to go up by 10lbs.
By:
Rod Tidwell
When: 14 Dec 10 19:39
Any Currency taken out today according to trainer's website
By:
Ballydoyle
When: 15 Dec 10 06:55
This race is becoming a right pain in the arse.

Backed 4 on Thursday - Galant Nuit, Any Currency, Maktu and Dance Island and now down to 2Cry
By:
Prescription Drugs
When: 15 Dec 10 16:34
Bluesea Cracker was running a nice race at CHelt before getting outpaced, trainer seems committed to coming over now and should have a nice weight...
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