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Horse Antepost
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One of my favourite races of the year, and I've been waiting eagerly for the entries to come out, and the markets to open.
Fabalu was bought with the Welsh National in mind, and he has plenty in his favour.
He needs soft ground to be seen at his best, and invariably the race is run on soft ground. Course form is also a bonus around Chepstow, and he finished off last season winning over 3m2f here in heavy going.
Silver By Nature is an intended runner, and likely top weight which would leave this fellow on 10.6, an ideal racing weight, 9 of the last 10 winners have carried 11st or less.
He's a thorough stayer, a relentless galloper, and I think this progressive chaser is tailor made for the race. Being trained by the genius McCain is a bonus.
Veecee have opened up 33/1, which I think is a massive price. I've had my biggest anti-post bet ever on this animal tonight. Cannae wait now.
Fabalu was bought with the Welsh National in mind, and he has plenty in his favour.
He needs soft ground to be seen at his best, and invariably the race is run on soft ground. Course form is also a bonus around Chepstow, and he finished off last season winning over 3m2f here in heavy going.
Silver By Nature is an intended runner, and likely top weight which would leave this fellow on 10.6, an ideal racing weight, 9 of the last 10 winners have carried 11st or less.
He's a thorough stayer, a relentless galloper, and I think this progressive chaser is tailor made for the race. Being trained by the genius McCain is a bonus.
Veecee have opened up 33/1, which I think is a massive price. I've had my biggest anti-post bet ever on this animal tonight. Cannae wait now.
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any news on a prep run?
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Nothing recently Teddy, stable tour intimated he might have run in the Becher, but nowt apart from that.
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i like him but would like a run first
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I know what you mean, just to see if he's come back into training OK. But I did come across this quote from the trainer which convinced me to bet him.
17.11.10 McCain has Fabalu Aintree options Donald McCain has engaged an interesting duo in both the £100,000 Listed totesport.com Becher Chase (1.45pm) and the £60,000 totesuper7 Grand Sefton Handicap Chase at Aintree McCain is looking at both options for last season’s progressive novice Fabalu, as well as Mill Side, who joined his string from Sue Smith during the summer, and the Cheshire trainer, unsurprisingly, has the John Smith’s Grand National in the back of his mind. McCain revealed today: “Fabalu and Mill Side have both been given an entry in the totesport.com Becher Chase and the totesuper7 Grand Sefton but at the moment I’m undecided about which race they’ll run in. “Both of them are doing grand and are ready to go. Fabalu is a grand horse and I’ve always liked him. Mill Side is lightly raced and I haven’t had him very long, so I’m not sure whether he would be one for Aintree next spring but we’re looking to go that way with Fabalu.” |
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Signed in..
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my fancies are any currency and imoncloudnine
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Dance Island for me. I think he's rated 137 but ran Burton Port close with Nicholls' horse who ran second to Massini's Maguire at Ascot in third at Aintree and won easily at Warwick in very soft ground. Also beat Dream Alliance over hurdles at Chepstow (getting loads of weight admittedly) and had a pipe opener over hurdles before running a good second at Haydock to King Fontaine last Saturday. Trainer's comments in the Post that morning suggested he'd still need the run and I think the race has been his target for a while.
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Yeah, I can see where your coming from with Dance Island. Some decent form as a novice. Question I think, is how much he has in hand. Fair price I'd say.
Any currency was well mentioned throughout last season after winning two races, but did nothing afterwards. I think his rating is as good as he is, not a great price. |
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I think his runs at Warwick and Aintree would both suggest he should be mid 140s and he's only run 4 times over fences so should be capable of better.
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GI, it's asking a lot to win the Welsh National on your seasonal debut.
The one that interests me most is Bluesea Cracker. She travelled and jumped like a dream at Cheltenham up to the 2nd last when she clearly blew up. I'm sure she will strip fitter at Chepstow and a rating of 141 should ensure she gets a decent weight |
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why wouldnt they run fab in a hcap hurdle as a prep. he's only 124 so pop around somewhere in a 0-130 would be ideal. like it team
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Dance Island's Aintree form now franked. 33-1 a great price.
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Took 33's Fabalu, hoping for a good run!
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Galant Nuit been aimed at this since the summer. Stays, jumps and goes well on soft ground. Should get in off about 10st 6lb
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javedu - sshhhh!
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Weights published. Burton Port set to concede 26lb to Dance Island for a shade over 3 lengths in the grade 2 novice at Aintree (spotted early by booster). Will be surprised if the former is exposed to such a slog and I'm sure his jumping is not suited by a big field. Before each fence Barry gives it the one, two, three, jump routine.
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Red and white, have a look at the ratings of the 3 horses who finished behind Dance Island at Aintree and tell me how well weighted you think he is then.
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I quite like Fabalu's unexposed stablemate, very eyecatching run last time over hurdles imo.
Not sure whether this race is a target but interesting nonetheless |
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I think the other one to be interested in is Venetia williams' Summery Justice whose Bangor victory from Buffalo Bob was franked at Newbury and should love the extra 5 furlongs on soft ground. Well weighted off 135 I think.
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booster i dont know what happened to the welsh national price wise post on the main forum
 does antone have a link to view the weights , 9 times out of 10 they go up 6 or 7 before the race. |
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Bigmart, I'm no good with computers but if you click on the Post website, go to cards, big race cards, and Welsh National, it will show there. My 2 fancies are 135 and 137 so should get reasonable racing weights.
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You sure Blue Sea Cracker blew up lto ? Im not tbh she was there to win imo because Andrew McNamara was aboard he has ridden her to victy twice before. She also had a recent outing over hurdles before Cheltenhams. Will like conditions of the National,though.
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Dance Island tipped by Pricewise. Thanks for the tip booster. Judging by his profile he's been laid out for the race and the track/distance will suit better than Aintree. He'll have a nice racing weight too as they're sure to go up and bring him in to the handicap proper.
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I can understand him tipping up Synchronised as he did dance away with a Chepstow Nov Chase before winning the Midlands National (though quite what he beat is open to conjecture) and a mark of 150 will not make it a walk in the park but to go for Dance Island whos best from is arguably on better ground in the hope that they get unseasonally good ground at Chepstow in the middle of winter is a bit strange. Its obviously based on Burton Ports form but if you watch the race they were in a heap behind, the time was rubbish, no horse has won from it and my view is the Burton Port that won that day was not the one who ran in the RSA chase a few weeks earlier or who indeed ran so well last week in the Hennessey. In other words he won in spite of being nowhere near his best. Also Maktus form with King Fontaine gives him a far better chance than Dance Island. Gallant Nuit is the obvious fly in the ointment and was entered up all over this weekend but wont be going anywhere soon (bar Redcar beach, which worked okay for Kalahari King I suppose). I just wonder if he will be tempted to go for a very valuable 3m chase at the December meeting if the ground is suitable.
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Fabalu taken out of the market? That aint a good sign
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Was any reason given for missing the Becher? He seemed very keen to run him. Hope you havent lost too much
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Opened VC account just to take 33's. Thankfully they would only let me have £30 on, was going to bet more. I think GI had lot more than that on by the sound of things, hope I'm wrong though.
It's easy to say now, but I was kind of curious as to why he missed The Becher, didn't seem to be any explanation. Fingers crossed it's just a niggle, and nothing more ominous. |
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Betilyerded, I'd have to say that Dance Island's Aintree form is a stone at least better than the very poor race for last year's Midlands National and, when you look at the 3 horses who finished directly behind him, Take The Breeze was 2nd behind Massini's Maguire at Ascot, Lenabane was rated 144 and Knockara Beau has reasonable form with all last year's staying novices and is rated 149. Rated 137, it's undisputable that he's well handicapped. Throw in his defeat of Dream Alliance over 3 miles on soft ground at Chepstow over hurdles and a chase debut victory over one of the most demanding jumping courses at Warwick over 3 miles 2 furlongs and you can see that Dance Island at 33-1 was massively overpriced.
In a race full of exposed horses I'd be happy to be on each way at 33-1 with a saver on Summery Justice at 25-1. |
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I never set too much store by Aintree form anyway but Dance Island's run behind Burton Port hints strongly at ability. Reading his article I thought Tom Segal was more taken by his thrashing of follow up Welsh National winner Dream Alliance at Chepstow on soft(don't know why you think he needs 'unseasonal' ground betilyered, Turtle Island horses love the soft).
Warwick is a track that needs jumping and for a horse to go there and win on its first ever chase over 3m2f says a lot about his jumping and staying ability. I don't take the form behind Burton Port literally and neither did the handicapper obviously (I mentioned the weight differential earlier as a reason for Burton Port's connections ducking what I think would be a slog for him). Nor do I think the handicapper has Dance Island's measure over fences. |
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As regards Dance Island's defeat of Dream Alliance over hurdles, its needs to be remembered that it was Dream Alliance's first run for 19 months and that he blew up badly down the straight. The 10 length margin probably looks better on paper. I have never seem DA so tired after a race (apart from Aintree, but it turned out he had a virus then).
I think that Dance Island's current mark is about right, but he is one I would keep an eye on as he certainly has the potential to improve and should be on anyone's short list for the Welsh National. |
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FCH, does that mean that the horses who finished beind him at Aintree are all badly handicapped? Can't see how Take The Breeze is as he ran second at Ascot behind Massini's Maguire. I can buy the argument that he has to prove he stays on heavy ground but not that he's handicapped about right.
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tried a few quid on Giles Cross the other day 40/1.
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Agreed I am on Giles Cross at 40's
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Does anyone have a copy of the Post from the day of the Welsh National Pricewise? I'm interested in Venetia's comments (if any) regarding the chances of Summery Justice.
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No I dont. But she is likely to run Mobaasher aswell .. I backed him in the foxhunters where he was going well until he got badly hamepred at the 11th fence, then plugged on for 5th. If he is on a going day, he could be a danger
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I have the RP from Thurs but no comments from Venetia. Not studied the race as much as some of you guys but Becauseicouldnotsee is interesting based on his Festival run with three shoes and Chicago Grey is an intriguing entry also.
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Sint, I do believe Bluesea blew up last time. Trainers comments in the Racing Post on Thursday tend to back up that theory.
Jockey was very easy on her from two out. Trainer had been training her for the Hennessy but ditched that idea when Denman was confirmed as a runner which would have had her running too far out of the handicap. So maybe her last race came a couple of weeks too soon based on original plan. Was disturbed to see that trainer wasn't committing to Welsh National. |
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Rease, agree with you about Becauseicouldnotsee. Big player but is also one of the favourites for the PP Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, so I am reluctant to back until nearer the day.
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