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Anaglogs Daughter
05 Oct 10 11:52
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Date Joined: 05 Jan 10
| Topic/replies: 29,479 | Blogger: Anaglogs Daughter's blog
8-11 Frankel, 5-2 Dream Ahead, 5-1 Saamidd, 14-1 Dunboyne Express, Native Khan, 20-1 Seville, Titus Mills, 33-1 Roderic O'Connor, Strong Suit, 40-1 Elzaam, Glor Na Mara.


Frankel has been installed as 8-11 favourite  for the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket.

Henry Cecil's colt was a brilliant winner of the Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot but could face his acid test at Headquarters.

His potential opponents include wide-margin Middle Park winner Dream Ahead (5-2) and Champagne Stakes winner Saamidd (5-1).

"We've seen some terrific performances from several two-year-old colts already this season, and if the market principals all turn up for the Dewhurst, it should be a mouthwatering showdown, with the winner certain to head into winter quarters as hot favourite for the 2,000 Guineas," said Coral's David Stevens.

"However, it is a measure of how highly we rate Frankel that Henry Cecil's charge is odds-on for the race, even though he could face fellow unbeaten Group winners such as Dream Ahead and Saamidd," added Stevens.
Pause Switch to Standard View Frankel 8-11 fav For Dewhurst.
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Report Figgis October 16, 2010 12:21 AM BST
Roughly, yes.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 5:52 AM BST
Well lets hope Frankel is the real deal and can show it on the day. Would love HRAC to be remembered for an all-time great racehorse who can be mentioned in the same breath as the likes of Mill Reef and Balding, Sea The Stars and Oxx, Nijinsky and O'Brien. Maybe this is it lets hope so he couldnt have a tougher test today and the jockey has to be up to it as well.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 5:55 AM BST
Dancing Brave and Harwood... HRAC has never quite had an all-time great Classic colt imo though Reference Point was v good.
Report EIRROG October 16, 2010 6:18 AM BST
great race
Report mginvest October 16, 2010 9:15 AM BST
On reflection Dream Ahead is a horse i like because of the way it travels,but i've not actually backed the thing before and i'm not gonna start today in the best race it's run in. He's a remarkable horse really costing just $11,000 at Keenland last year and only sold on for £35k. Compared to Frankel and Sammidd though his action and stride doesn't look as impressive to me. Frankel really got his head down and strode clear at Ascot and that's what i also liked about Sammidd. He looks totally focused on the job too. I agree with Pedro that the others in the Middle Park were simply stopping and perhaps DA should be bettered judged on the previous run.

I'm tempted to back Sammidd today and have a saver on Frankel in case he is the real deal. Whoever wins we'd have seen a real top class 2yo. Who'll go on next year though?
Report the lay preacher October 16, 2010 10:29 AM BST
the heavy rain for 2 hours last night has made this race a lot more difficult imo .
i thought it would have been cut and dried for frankel now im not so sure.
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 16, 2010 10:35 AM BST
I'm in the Frankel camp but hats off to Laura Pike shes on Facebook and has been putting a video up nearly every other day of Dream Ahead and in her last one yesterday she was in the D.A's box and i have to say he looks better then ever. He's looking as cool as a cucumber ready for today and if their is the slightest **** in Frankels armour i think he'll win it...Let the battle commmence.
Report Sandown October 16, 2010 10:59 AM BST
Today's Dewhurst could be as good as the race in 1970 featuring Mill Reef, Brigadier Gerard and My Swallow.

On my figures there is only one winner today and that is Frankel. I have him on 118 but projecting to 135 the best for a 2 yr old I think I have ever had since I've been doing sectional projections. I don't have any concerns over C&D or ground so the only fear is that he might have left his race behind on the gallops after apparently doing a stunning run.

The other two would look good in an average year and Dream Ahead should finish in front of Saamid but there should be daylight behind Frankel.Is he an odds on chance? Yep, I think he is.

Egg on my face awaits me.
Report zilzal1 October 16, 2010 11:11 AM BST
No bet today and i will just enjoy the race
Report ribotman October 16, 2010 11:26 AM BST
can anyone tell me if a horse has stepped up from maiden before to win gp1 at 2yo as prestigious as prix morny.?

i can't although there probably is.
Report Figgis October 16, 2010 11:41 AM BST
Motivator went from maiden to the RPT a few years ago, Armiger did the same a few years before that, those are 2 I can remember.
Report geoff m October 16, 2010 11:58 AM BST
High Chapperall won RPT straight from maiden company.
Report Graeme83 October 16, 2010 1:02 PM BST
Good to Soft
Report Figgis October 16, 2010 1:58 PM BST
Just the slow side of good judging by the time of the first race, no excuses for anybody.
Report Sandown October 16, 2010 2:19 PM BST
Just realised I confused the 1971 2000 Gns with the 1970 Dewhurst - oh well, me memory's not what it was.Laugh
Report no moves October 16, 2010 2:24 PM BST
frankel, overated, soft ground form.
Report kincsem October 16, 2010 2:28 PM BST
Roderic OConnor    34.44    €45.00    €1,505.00

I got a run.
Report kincsem October 16, 2010 2:29 PM BST
Frankel good but not a level above.
Report mightymoyes October 16, 2010 2:29 PM BST
would fancy roderic to turn the tables at epsom.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 2:30 PM BST
SUPERSTAR .. this horse wins the Guineas and Derby. Bring it on.
Report kincsem October 16, 2010 2:31 PM BST
Looking at the replay Roderic O'Connor was coming back to him.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 2:31 PM BST
He would have preferred faster ground but he goes on anything. Queally just said he was a superstar there .. beat him to it Happy
Report Anaglogs Daughter October 16, 2010 2:32 PM BST
Still runing as green as grass it went halfway across the track when he pushed him
Report geoff m October 16, 2010 2:33 PM BST
cant see that running in the Derby eric.
Far too free does far too much early
Henry will keep him to a mile.
Report Masterminded October 16, 2010 2:33 PM BST
well done winners. have to say slightly disappointed with the race
Report kincsem October 16, 2010 2:33 PM BST
Frankel two months older than the runner up.
Report unclepuncle October 16, 2010 2:35 PM BST
Guineas is his to lose but has zero chance in the Derby based on what I just watched.
Report geoff m October 16, 2010 2:35 PM BST
yep after looking forward to that more than any race i can recall just feel a tad deflated it didnt turn into a battle of the big 3 which we all wanted.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 2:36 PM BST
Will go unbeaten next season surely we have another Sea The Stars here. Could be an all-time great given the opportunity sure Cecil will run him in the Derby as there is nothing to touch him at a mile and very likely a mile and a half. His breeding says Derby and he settled well enough though not as well as in the Royal Lodge. HRAC and Franc saying he wont have liked the ground there. More to come lol.
Report Dark Destroyer October 16, 2010 2:36 PM BST
Runner up had the race run to suit. Frankel won easing up. I would be utterly amazed if the form was reversed over any distance.
Report enjbenjy October 16, 2010 2:37 PM BST
Roderic looked like a baby to me. May improve a lot 2-3.
Report mightymoyes October 16, 2010 2:38 PM BST
the both have quite similar breeding dont they, with RoC bit more stamina?
Report tons of sobs October 16, 2010 2:38 PM BST
pauloon
Joined: 29 Jun 08
Replies: 133 13 Oct 10 10:44   
FRANKEL-STEIN 

Prima Donna Joined: 29 Apr 09
Replies: 2552 13 Oct 10 11:14   
NO CHANCE pauloonI'm sure eric morris would agree


FRAKELSTEINCool
Report tons of sobs October 16, 2010 2:39 PM BST
frankelstein LaughCool
Report the lay preacher October 16, 2010 2:39 PM BST
ground was all against frankel there will see a different horse in a fast ground guineas.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 2:40 PM BST
Frankel's stride would be more pronounced on faster ground ... he will be better for the ground Classic time next season imo.
Report Figgis October 16, 2010 2:41 PM BST
A great performance on the clock but unlikely to improve much, if at all, imo.
Report cryoftruth October 16, 2010 2:42 PM BST
Well, I am not sure how far he won by, but Dream Ahead never did a thing and ran miles below his Morny form leave alone the Middle Park. Saamidd ran okay, and Roderick has cope to improve, but Frankel basically outpaced them all and I am not sure he liked the going all that much.

Value for the 2000 Guineas. I would think that Frankel is a shade more likely to win the Guineas than lose and would say real odds should be 10/11, so anything above 6/4 is fair enough for short odds players. Some bookies are 5/6 already and you can hardly blame them.
Report unclepuncle October 16, 2010 2:44 PM BST
Still need to see Dunboyne Exprees again he beat Roderic O'Connor 5 lengths on debut.
Report cryoftruth October 16, 2010 2:46 PM BST
I am a Dunboyne Express fan but Roderick must have improved a mile since he got thrashed by that one.
Report PFtrader October 16, 2010 2:50 PM BST
Bit of an unsatisfactory race imo

Despite winning he pulled awfully hard for the first few furlongs as well as seeing a bit too much daylight on the outside therefore all in all I thought he did well to finish his race the way he did. Dream Ahead didn't run his race and neither did Saamidd though.
Report unclepuncle October 16, 2010 2:50 PM BST
Not disputing that COT (I suggested Roderic was the intersting horse from the whole line of form in another thread back in July), but to be fair Dunboyne also improved to win a Group 3 by 8 lengths on his next start.
Report cryoftruth October 16, 2010 2:52 PM BST
Roderic is not bred to stay as far as Frankel, his dam is bred for a mile and her dam was fast and produced a number of sprinters.

Of course Roderic may improve a lot, but i don't personally see him as an obvious Derby type on pedigree.
Report kincsem October 16, 2010 2:53 PM BST
Racing Post results

1 Frankel 4/6 Fav
2 Glor Na Mara
2 Roderic O'Connor 25/1

????????
Report unclepuncle October 16, 2010 2:54 PM BST
I don't fancy him for the Derby either - I was enquiring about a Guineas price back in July though[;)]
Report kincsem October 16, 2010 3:02 PM BST
I mentioned earlier (this thread?) I was disappointed with CH4.  They did a three horse Dewhurst preview from six horses.  One of them was in the first three.
Report kincsem October 16, 2010 3:03 PM BST
Roderic O'Connor, who finished clear of the remainder, was closing again at the line despite being eased down by Murtagh and looked a vastly improved horse on his last run.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 3:09 PM BST
Frankel was eased at the finish there and on faster ground you can double the winning distance at least.

Hoping he will be given the chance by HRAC to go Derby and Arc after the Guineas. Cant get excited about him beating Rip Van Winkle over and over again sticking to the St James Palace , QEII etc .. yawn if that is the programme. Sea The Stars was given the chance to prove his versatility and greatness over a mile and mile and a half no way will Frankel be remembered as a great horse also in the same breath as Sea The Stars, Sea Bird, Dancing Brave et al unless he goes over middle distances.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 3:13 PM BST
PFTrader he was bumped at the start which the jockey and trainer reported set the horse alight.

Queally said: "He's a superstar, and it's nice to have done it when it mattered. He's done it well and he's very special.

"He got a bit of a bump on leaving stalls and that set him alight, but he quickened up well and put the race to bed. He wandered a bit off a true line on the ground, but we'll forgive him that!"

Cecil added: "He'd been relaxing well at home but that bump set him alight - in his work he is very relaxed, but when you get a nasty bump like that it makes a difference.
Report PFtrader October 16, 2010 3:20 PM BST
eric

I appreciate he was bumped, I put it more down to the fact that Tom couldn't get him covered up properly here and, probably wisely, chose not to tuck him in last on this occasion as he had done at Ascot.

Looking at his previous three runs he has always been directly behind horses early doors, including the Doncaster run with only two opponents. Something for them to work on over the winter, but he is with the right man to do so.

Clearly a high class horse.
Report mythical prince October 16, 2010 5:32 PM BST
the further frankel goes the better he'll be. not as visually impressive as at ascot but looks rock solid. Will improve as a three year old as well. however he does in the guineas he'll equal or improve on that in the derby.
Report _royboy_ October 16, 2010 6:53 PM BST
^^^^

agree with above.
Everyone worried about his sprinting momma, but hes hosed up in the royal lodge and then hes pulled his head off for three furlongs here and put the race to bed. All 'great' derby winners need speed - id rather be a derby backer at 6s than a guineas better at 13/8. Money where mouth is and i just took the rest of the 7.0 on here.
Report A_T October 16, 2010 7:04 PM BST
Frankel won't stay 12f. He's enormously developed - his physique is massive for his age - reminds me of Zafonic. Just can't see that huge frame being for anything other than speed.
Report mythical prince October 16, 2010 7:23 PM BST
i don't see how you can say he "won't" stay 12 furlongs. he "might not" stay but how on earth can you know for sure? you don't.

zafonic was far more visually impressive in his dewhurst. he really bolted up and was an out and out miler. frankel seemed a bit tap for toe when they first quickened, but then was well on top at the line, and the further they went the more he was pulling away from a horse like dream ahead. it reminded me much more of new approaches dewhurst, who was by the same sire, than zafonic's.

as for the pulling, he was far less headstrong than that aforementioned bolger horse and that didn't stop him winning the derby. 6-1 seems more than generous about his epsom prospects.
Report A_T October 16, 2010 7:48 PM BST
Noone knows anything for sure before a race but IMO Frankel will not stay the Derby trip. He did well today in slow conditions that I don't believe suited Frankel. I think he wants good ground and under the usual conditions at Newmarket in May he will surely be unstoppable.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 8:36 PM BST
It takes a good imagination or a layer to think a horse who has cruised through his 3 races virtually on the bit until asked and passed the line on fairly testing ground with the jockey not touching him with the whip National Hunt distances clear still going clear at the mile pole wont stay the Derby trip even when he is bred for it. What more can you want remember the same from Sea The Stars layers on here before the Derby. Sea The Stars may be a distant memory if HRAC does the right thing and lets him loose on the Derby then Arc. That's the campaign that will mark him out as an all-time great, not hammering Rip Van Winkle time and again over a mile how dreary would that be for a horse like Frankel with massive massive potential. If he won the Arc 8 lengths and was rated alongside Sea Bird history would be made. You dont buy a 100 grand Ferrari and then just drive it to the shops when you can test its performance to the limits and go in the record books instead.

HRAC has a monster here and he has to maximise its potential and that means upping to the best races there are, the Derby then Arc with a mile and a quarter prep in between. However the great man knows all this he has waited decades for this one to come along, he will try the horse and let him tell him. Stoutey just winning the Derby and Arc am sure HRAC will want to do Guineas, Derby, Arc with Frankel now he has the horse to do it. This is what dreams are made of, what an anti-climax the St James Palace would be, some not too good horses have won that but only great horses win a Guineas, Derby and Arc trebles.
Report A_T October 16, 2010 8:44 PM BST
Kirk I look forward to your posts when he wins the Guineas and is not run in the Derby. Laugh
Report Authorized October 16, 2010 8:51 PM BST
As a son of Galileo, Frankel must take his chance in the Derby. I've not seen a top class offspring of Galileo fail to stay 12f and this list of his Group 1 progeny proves it.

14f+ Alandi, Allegretto, Sans Frontierre
12f  Cape Blanco, Lush Lashes, New Approach, Red Rocks, Soldier Of Fortune
10f  Lily Of The Valley, Rip Van Winkle
8f   Misty For Me, Nightime
7f   Frankel, Teofilo

The only winner under 12f to try that trip was Rip in the Derby who was running on despite running green.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 9:41 PM BST
To be fair it aint going to be worth discussing it on here as there will be many on the Pricewise Derby tip the owners other horse and then there is Frankels layers. Little chance of getting a balanced discusssion when he is being discounted by some when breeding, class, the way he travels, the better ground, the way he finishes a mile full of running without the use of the whip at all against multiple Group 1 race winners without breaking sweat on slowish ground going clear makes him a far more likely Derby candidate than other Derby winners we have seen recently over a mile beforehand.
Report Brodie October 16, 2010 9:43 PM BST
what does henry say about his plans? let's get some 'balance'.
Report eric_morris October 16, 2010 9:50 PM BST
A_T i have Frankel the Guineas antepost also however they dont come along often like this. If he wins the Guineas then his breeding was ignored to stick to beating other tired old milers I think it would be a great shame if my favourite trainer of all time doesnt try to surpass the achievements of the owners greatest horse to date Dancing Brave. He deserves an all -time great colt before he retires. The problem with layers on here is often they come on to p1ss all over good horses like this with mega negativity to suit their lays, fine but discussions cant be balanced with that, lets just leave it until next year and trust the trainer to decide is the best way.
Report geoff m October 17, 2010 12:17 AM BST
Kirk
The problem with layers on here is often they come on to p1ss all over good horses like this with mega negativity to suit their lays, fine but discussions cant be balanced with that, lets just leave it until next year and trust the trainer to decide is the best way.

I would respond

The problem with backers on here is often they come on to big up all over good horses like this with positivity to suit their backs, fine but discussions cant be balanced with that, lets just leave it until next year and trust the trainer to decide is the best way.


Ring any bells.
Report bbsband October 17, 2010 6:38 PM BST
very very true Geoff....
Report Loanwolf October 17, 2010 7:01 PM BST
Statistically  any Frankel bet next years  for 2k guineas has to be a lay.I was at Ascot when frankel won impressively. However the overall impression I gained was that this was a very big colt  better able to carry the weight than any other horse in the race.I suspect he is an early maturing horse and that over the winter  the physical advantage he now has will be eliminated.Laying Frankel at 6/4 or 7/4 for next years guineas is a brilliant bet
Report grendel October 18, 2010 9:36 AM BST
On my figures Frankel is good enough to win a Guineas now, my speed figures for the last 3 guineas winners are:-

2008 Henrythenavigator 87
2009 Sea The Stars     89
2010 Makfi             87

Frankel Donc. Run      90
Frankel Ascot Run      79
Frankel Nmkt  Run      89

Based on my figures Frankel would have to regress between now and May to not post a figure that would've won any of the last 3 2000 guineas
Report zilzal1 October 18, 2010 9:50 AM BST
And the problem with traders on here is that they ramp either way in order to go all green..........
Report PFtrader October 19, 2010 10:20 PM BST
Interesting article in the Guardian

Frankel, the two-year-old star of the 2010 season and hot favourite for next year's 2,000 Guineas, could finish the campaign as only the second-best juvenile of the crop according to the official ratings.

Henry Cecil's unbeaten colt has been raised 1lb to a mark of 124 after his victory in the Group One Dewhurst Stakes on  Saturday, while Dream Ahead, only fifth of six runners in that event, is rated 126, thanks to his nine-length win in the Middle Park Stakes earlier this month. Dream Ahead's new mark is a 2lb drop on his figure immediately after the Middle Park, which was run on soft ground.

"I don't want to denigrate Frankel in any way," said Matthew Tester, the British Horseracing Authority's two-year-old specialist. "And I think that there is every chance he will turn out to be the horse that Henry Cecil expects him to be, but there is no way you can prove it by beating a maiden winner [Roderic O'Connor] and a maiden [Glor Na Mara], which is what he did on Saturday."

Neither Frankel nor Dream Ahead is expected to race again as a two-year-old and the only realistic chance for a boost to Frankel's final rating appears to lie with the horses he beat so comprehensively when 10 lengths clear in the Royal Lodge Stakes at Ascot in September.

"By the end of the year, the figures may look different," Tester said. "There's going to be a lot of debate about Dream Ahead, about the fact that he won by nine lengths on soft ground, and whether it's right to have him ahead of Frankel or whether we call them the same horse.

"It is likely to depend on where we put the Royal Lodge Stakes. I think there's a good chance that we will end up with a higher rating for Frankel, because the placed horses from the Royal Lodge [Klammer and Treasure Beach] will come out and boost the form."

Treasure Beach could do just that on Saturday at Doncaster in the Racing Post Trophy, for which he is one of 11 entries after three horses were added to the field at a cost of £17,000 each today.


Interesting to see they have already reduced Dream Ahead's official rating by 2lb despite him not seeming to run his race in the Dewhurst.

Still think it would be strange to see Dream Ahead finish the season rated higher than Frankel.

Might need the likes of Klammer and Treasure Beach to frank the Royal Lodge form to pull them out of a hole here.
Report pedrobob October 19, 2010 10:55 PM BST
Dream Ahead's Middle Park is a common error that the handicapper makes in allotting marks to horses. He doesn't appear to take account of speed figs which often tell a different story, and is quite happy to rate slow run races literally where far inferior horses finish close up to far superior animals.

In the case of the Middle Park, he has refused to accept that maybe the remainder of the field ran well below par, rated Dream Ahead accordingly and not flattered by his his 9 length winning margin. Yet speed figure for the race showed Dream Ahead had clocked just an ok time for a Group 1 and was nothing out of the ordinary.... so far.

30 mins earlier, Hooray ran 0.19 secs faster than Dream Ahead, and yet the handicapper rated that one 116. I know Figgis will argue for a slower going allowance as the ground deteriorated, but still don't see it being as much as 10lbs?

Maybe Matthew Tester overrated Dream Ahead's Middle Park win? He is meant to rate on what horses achieve, not on what he think they will achieve in the future (this was the reason why he preferred Frankel when interviewed on Friday, even though he had rated Dream Ahead higher)
Report grendel October 20, 2010 10:50 AM BST
On my time figures Dream Ahead ran less than 3 lengths worse in the Dewhurst than the Middle Park.
Report pedrobob October 20, 2010 11:27 AM BST
pftrader, again Matthew Tester is barking up the wrong tree by hoping that Klammer or Treasure Beach will boost the Royal Lodge form by the end of the season, in order to justify a higher rating for Frankel. They won't - they are not up to Group standard.
The Royal Lodge was poor form for a Group 2 before the race (bar Frankel) and poor form after it (bar Frankel).
Based on sectionals for Ascot, Frankel took 6 1/2 lengths out of White Moonstone in 2 of the last 3 furlongs, having got to the 3f marker in even time. You could argue that Frankel is a 21lbs+ better horse than White Moonstone on that stat itself - yet White Moonstone (110) was only rated 14lbs inferior by the handicapper. He's either overassessed White Moonstone or underassessed Frankel.

That's why obviously personal preferences is to base ratings on what horses do against the clock when put under pressure against a decent gallop.
So many races are not evenly or strongly run, that the current handicapping system of relying on collateral form is constantly flawed.
The handicapper has got the wrong figures for:
a) those beaten in the Royal Lodge (too high)
b) 126 Dream Ahead in the Middle Park (too high based on a 9 length beating of horses who were patently walking across the line and didn't run their race - Dream Ahead was not accelerating in the final furlong, he was gently decelerating up the hill.... and as previous, too high compared to Hooray)
c) Frankel (too low on both Royal Lodge and Dewhurst)
Report pedrobob October 20, 2010 11:30 AM BST
agree Grendel on the Dream Ahead Dewhurst run, had him around 12lbs below Middle Park effort
Report grendel October 20, 2010 12:07 PM BST
pedrobob, as you are a master of sectionals, what would you say was the fastest single furlong Sea The Stars produced, and do you have sectionals for the Juddmonte that year?

I was of the opinion that Sea The Stars top speed was not great but he had speed stamina in abundance which dictated the way Kinane rode him from midfield.  In this respect he was able to race close to even paced races and therefore produced huge speed figures.
Report Figgis October 20, 2010 12:24 PM BST
Pedrobob
Have a look at the time differences between the first 2 races and the Cheveley Park, there is definitely around a 10lbs slow down.
Report pedrobob October 20, 2010 12:31 PM BST
I think Sandown or others may be your person for sectionals, Grendel, I only worked some out to answer a question about Frankel/Dream Ahead performances.

Shame that Turftrax folded their sectional times data, had just stated to study those when they stopped producing the info.

Think you right about Sea The Stars. He also had instant touch button acceleration, which meant he could get out of trouble (Juddmonte, Arc). Shame never kept in training, a match off with Harbinger/Workforce would have been something else.
Report Figgis October 20, 2010 12:38 PM BST
I agree that most of the other Middle Park runners didn't run to form, but that still doesn't mean Dream Ahead didn't run a big figure. Harbinger ran a big figure in the KG but there's no escaping the fact that not one of his opponents ran to their best. In fact I'd say most wide margin wins in big races are a combination of a big effort by the winner and the others not quite being at their best. As for Dream Ahead not accelerating in the final furlong, the same is true for most truly run races.
Report grendel October 20, 2010 12:46 PM BST
for the first 5 races on that 1 Oct meeting @ Newmarket i had these times slower than their class with winning distances:-

1 Havant        2.9  3¼l
2 Cityscape     1.6  7l
3 Hooray        1.8  4½l
4 Dream Ahead   2.4  9l
5 Loving Spirit 2.9  5l

for going allowance, i then look at the fastest times and work out the second placings calculated difference, so race 2 and 3 were 2.8 for Penitent and 2.8 for Rimth, i settled for 2.8secs per furlong as being the going allowance for the first 5 races before the longer distance races took place and settling on Cityscape and Hooray running their winning margins as a performance that much above the class of the race on the day and Dream Ahead 0.4secs/mile above in his race with the beaten horses paying for going off too fast and underperforming
Report Figgis October 20, 2010 12:51 PM BST
Can't have that Cityscape's race can use the same allowance as Hooray's. It would either mean that Cityscape is brilliant (he's been underrated in his last 2 runs but I wouldn't go that far) or Hooray ran much slower than she has before, which would make no sense.
Report grendel October 20, 2010 12:58 PM BST
do you actually compile speed ratings figgis?
Report Figgis October 20, 2010 1:05 PM BST
Yes, but on a pounds scale, not the flawed Mordin/Beyer methods.
Report geoff m October 20, 2010 1:10 PM BST
Why do you percveive Mordin/Beyer methods are flawed Figgis?
Report grendel October 20, 2010 1:11 PM BST
explain to me the difference between your pounds scale and the flawed Mordin/Beyer methods
Report Figgis October 20, 2010 1:12 PM BST
Geoff m, well for a start using class pars is a very basic way of producing figures, I think even Beyer acknowledged that.
Report grendel October 20, 2010 1:38 PM BST
can you go through how you get your ratings from start to finish please figgis, you've got me intrigued as I didn't realise i'd been doing it wrong for 15 years, i wondered why i backed so many losers
Report Figgis October 20, 2010 1:57 PM BST
Lol, I'm not trying to imply that speed figures will give all the winners. It's a bit difficult to go into all the aspects here (and even if it wasn't I'm not sure I'd want to give hard work away for free) but I am more in agreement with the likes of Timeform and Ragozin methods of producing speed figures than Mordin and Beyer. I don't use his exact methods myself but the Simon Rowlands guides are a good start.
Report PFtrader October 20, 2010 5:41 PM BST
Some good stuff here guys although you lost me at 'the' Laugh

I was of the opinion the handicapper had overrated Dream Ahead after his Middle Park win, he has as much as admitted so already by reducing his handicap mark by 2lb and I wouldn't be surprised if the mark was reduced further. Dave Edwards in the RP Weekender also summed it up pretty well I thought.

To most observers Frankel is the better 2 year old and it would be disappointing if the record books show that he was only the 2nd best juvenile according to official ratings.
Report grendel October 21, 2010 8:49 AM BST
Figgis, Figgis,Figgis !!

I'm afraid you have demonstrated how little you know about the subject, go back and read your replies and you'll realise the big clanger you've dropped.  If you're gonna bluff your way through a thread make sure what you say makes a little bit of sense.
Report pedrobob October 21, 2010 10:20 AM BST
Figgis     20 Oct 10 12:24 
Pedrobob
Have a look at the time differences between the first 2 races and the Cheveley Park, there is definitely around a 10lbs slow down.


Wrongly or rightly, Figgis, I've used the same going correction for the first 3 races that day, and allowed 6lbs for the Middle Park (after listening to your previous wise words). That meant I had Hooray improving 10lbs on her previous best, and the 2nd and 4th, Rimth and Ragsah running to previous form or shade of improvement.

I was not prepared to give Cityscape a Group 1 speed figure, which his 7 length win suggested he was entitled to, and like the Middle PArk, am assuming the others just did not show up for the gig. I will review some sectionals of that race and see whether a mistaken view.

Figgis     20 Oct 10 12:38 
I agree that most of the other Middle Park runners didn't run to form, but that still doesn't mean Dream Ahead didn't run a big figure.


My view was that Dream Ahead ran just an ok figure for a Group 1 2yo over 6f at this time of year,
but somewhere closer to the 115-116 mark, well short of the 128 that the official handicapper came up with. That doesn't mean he's not capable of 128 in the future as obviously did it well. But a lot of people got carried away with his 9 length win there, assuming he had quickened away from a  decent field, when in fact the sectionals appeared to show that he maintained an even gallop - accelerating very slightly into the dip and decelerating slightly up the hill.
Report Sandown October 21, 2010 10:25 AM BST
Frankel won the Dewhurst in a strong even pace posting a better final time performance (124 vs 118) than at Ascot but with a lower projection of 128 vs 135 which I gave him in the R.Lodge because of his strong finishing burst at Ascot. To my mind the horse is better at 8f now; whether he will stay further I can't say at this point from the figs.

He is as good a 2yr old as you are likely to see and it is highly unlikely that anything better will emerge before the 2000Gns. Backing him now is effectively a bet on him getting to the race well prepared.

Collateral handicappers take several races to reach the conclusions that can be reached earlier using time figs and sectionals. Once they have a horse pinned they are not far out. Where collateral ratings are of very little help is in judging potential for improvement.
Report Figgis October 21, 2010 11:21 AM BST
Pedrobob, the view you're taking on Dream Ahead is a reasonable one. When the ground slows during a meeting it can sometimes be difficult to pinpoint exactly where the changes occurred, particularly when 2yo races are involved. Looking at the races following the Middle Park, I'm adamant the ground had slowed. Whether it slowed significantly before the Middle Park can only be a matter of judgement. Some people have questioned such as Timeform rating the performance so highly but in my view it's just as reasonable to estimate that the ground did slow after the Cheveley Park.

No idea what you are on about Grendel, but seeing as you rate Frankel's Doncaster win already higher than the last 3 Guineas winners, I think I'd rather keep it that way.
Report Figgis October 21, 2010 11:38 AM BST
Sandown, I agree with you about Frankel's ability, but don't you think you're under estimating the possibilty that something at least as good could emerge on Guineas day? Henrythenavigator, for instance, improved substantially from 2 to 3. Even if it is just a matter of Frankel getting to the race well prepared, the chances of that are more odds against than odds on imo.
Report cryoftruth October 21, 2010 11:47 AM BST
I must say I think he is an odds on chance, unlike many on here and in the media who think 6/4 is very poor value.

The last 2 runs make Frankel a 128 horse. His first main target is the guineas. Henry is going to take no chances and go for the Greenham to sharpen him up and take the freshness out of him.

His form is pretty outstanding, and apparently it is backed up by time figures that I do not pretend to follow closely anymore.

It seems to me that Frankel can be rated at least 126 and his ability may be some way better than he has shown. he had a rotten race in the Dewhurst, adn Henry looked very cross that he had not been able to show what he can really do.

If the same frankel turns up at HQ, he would be long odds on to win and the chances of that are pretty short.

I would not be  Frankel layer at odds against now. The chances of anything we have seen improving past him are very remote, and something coming from left field out of a  maiden equally remote.
Report Figgis October 21, 2010 11:50 AM BST
Cryoftruth, no offence, we all get it wrong, but didn't you say the same about Crowded House and St Nic?
Report Sandown October 21, 2010 12:25 PM BST
Figgis

As I've said, I believe that Frankle is capable of posting a rating in the mid 130's, I beleive that 8f is his best trip at present, he can handle soft and fast grnd and the chances of anything improving past him come May are slight, albeit not impossible. So, for once, I agree with cryoftruth.
Report grendel October 21, 2010 12:30 PM BST
Figgis Joined: 28 Sep 04
Replies: 695 20 Oct 10 12:24   


Pedrobob
Have a look at the time differences between the first 2 races and the Cheveley Park, there is definitely around a 10lbs slow down.

Figgis Joined: 28 Sep 04
Replies: 695 20 Oct 10 12:51   


Can't have that Cityscape's race can use the same allowance as Hooray's. It would either mean that Cityscape is brilliant (he's been underrated in his last 2 runs but I wouldn't go that far) or Hooray ran much slower than she has before, which would make no sense.

spot the flaw in the logic!
Report Figgis October 21, 2010 12:33 PM BST
Both statements look consistent to me, Grendel.
Report Figgis October 21, 2010 12:42 PM BST
Sandown
What would you say are the average chances of a horse training on from 2 to 3? Good 2yos like Teofilo, Crowded House, Ibn Khaldun and SNA, while I accept you probably didn't rate them as highly as Frankel, didn't even manage to hold their form the next season.
Report zilzal1 October 21, 2010 12:54 PM BST
Id have to agree with figgis here, i just think that he is an exceptional 2yo and his trainer made a point of that after the Royal Lodge.
I also think that Dream Ahead will prove difficult to keep sound and that Saamid's temper wont improve with age.
This makes it a very interesting winter
Report grendel October 21, 2010 1:06 PM BST
Raceform has going correction the same for Cityscapes race and Hoorays race, for the day they have

1 0.53
2 0.53
3 0.53
4 0.68
5 0.68
6 0.83
7 0.83
8 0.83

In their opinion the ground slowed 0.15 following the Cheveley Park, something i'm not going to buy into as its virtually uncalculable for the two races given their nature, the last 3 races were over longer and I did give a slower allowance as they were significantly slower than the previous 5.  For Cityscape, Hooray and Dream Ahead I had their performances improved on their best by 6.75l,6l and 6l respectively which is fair enough given it was a lightly raced 4yo and two 2yo's
Report Sandown October 21, 2010 1:48 PM BST
Figgis

I don't know but I'm saying that if he gets there in good shape then he should win not that he represents an A/P bet at his current price.
Report Figgis October 21, 2010 2:14 PM BST
Ok, Sandown, fair enough [;)]
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