Red Cadeaux - Cesarewitch

Has been knocking on the door all summer , at Chester, at Haydock. Should put in another bold show.

Perfectly good shout and weighted to turn the form round with Theola. You've got the price and he looks like a definite runner.

Not scare-mongering but 2nd fav Universal Truth looks pretty weak on the exchange right now. Mind you that is far from conclusive as we all know.

Love this horse. He deserves to win a big h'cap this year, just not sure if he'll be staying on strongly enough at the finish. Last time at HQ it looked to me like he was running out of stamina.

been backing RC all year and he done really well

however i have reservations on three fronts,

i am not convinced about his ability to stay this trip (see above)

he has had easier opportunities than this will be to win and he has managed to get beat (i reckon he is a thinker as opposed to a doer)

he has ran in quite a few hcaps and see no reason why he will improve or prove well enough hcapped to win this hot heat

i suspect he will be on the scene and will prob start shorter but i wont be backing him

GL

While I agree with both the previous posts I also think it is highly signficant that Murtagh, who almost certainly would have had the choice of several fancied contenders, has decided at such an early stage to stick with RC.

Good luck - even though my picks are Bergo and My Arch

the blinkers will make the diference hopefully..[;)]

I am sick of Red Cadeaux. He would have won me a deal of cash at Chester, and he simply would not go past. He is a definite dodgepot and a complete barker. Trouble is he has all the ability to win and now I am against him I fear the sound of sod's law about to strike.

I do fear though that spurs and a long tom will be required for him to consent to put it all in at the finish. Blinkers don't sound like enough to me.

just been watching glorious goodwood reruns (i know a bit late) - terrific cesarewitch trial from sentry duty. 20s with corals, double some firms - what do they know?

I am avoiding too much ante post on this race. The trouble is the draw. its fatal to be drawn out wide and almost impossible to win if you get unlucky with the darw. It means you need almost double the normal price because you have a bout a 50% chance of losing oyur money before the race has even started.

and you have a 50% chance of your money doubling or trebling in value before the race,  so surely the draw factor shouldnt prevent anyone betting ante post ?

I agree with Cryoftruth.
Fancied it at Chester also but after that put it down as bestman but never the groom.
Not sure what exactly is his distance and don't think trainer knows either.

Didn't think Michael Hills was the strongest that day but do agree he should have won.

best price 14s now....was put up in raceform update today.

Interestingly .. I wonder who rides ... Ryan Moore obviously rides a few winners for Ed and if he is confirmed could go off near fav .. punters would be all over it like a cheap wet suit.

ignore that! DD has already said Murtagh rides..

I know Oceans Minstrel has been beaten numerous times this year to suggest he isn't well handicapped, but I think he shaped best of all in the Trial and fancy him to reverse form with the first 2, certainly the winner on the revised terms. There was plenty of 33's after but at 25's I still think he's worth a shot. And you can make a case of him being well treated on last year's form at much shorter distances.

Theola thrashed it ,cant see it turning the form round , fancy Theola .

unlikeley to even place,ces will be run at much stronger pace and doubt it will get home.

one i like at a massive price on hear is john dunlops "swingkeel",beaten about 3leneths by bergo at royal ascot and is 11 lbs better in.also was a little unlucky in the chester cup,but was still in front of red cadeaux who he meets on roughly the same terms.is a fresh horse and had a nice little pipeopener behind a decent horse over a trip to short in free agent,at salisbury lto.as won on any ground,will stay the trip,and is 4/5 times the price of bergo and red cadeaux!

^^

I think that your namesake will win the handicap on sat

Murtagh rides Sentry Duty(alledgedly)

i thought Peslier was on Sentry

Admiral Barry is a very strong contender.Continues to improve.

Swinging Hawk 33/1 looks the value to me, by Hawk Wing Saldenschwinge - (In The Wings (11.7f) so should love this trip & going, Ian Williams has a good strike rate with his 4yo+ horses, ran no race LTO when 9/4 fav but this one is better than that!

2 points here:

Red Caduex need some cut.  It will be fast on Saturday.

Swingkeel ran a shocker in this last year so can't have that.

Most of the form lines point to Theola.  She stays very well and had a shocking draw at Goodwood.  16's looks good

Ed dunlop on red cadeaux
"he certainly deserves another win,he is an intented runner and the 2 mile 2 furlongs trip should be fine as long as the ground is not to soft, which it shouldnt be, it should be beautiful ground.
i dont thing the ground for red cadeaux will be any faster than it was on its last run at the course in mid september

interesting that Dunlop says that, i was always under the impression this horse thrived on soft going. anyway i cant complain the 20/1 is looking healthy now

I think he means the horse does not want Soft ground over 2m2f.

the draw wasn't an issue for Theola at Goodwood. It was a tape start and they lined up where they wanted. The problem was that she didn't travel a yard.

Theola will also be 7 lb worse off with Red Cadeaux from last time.

Theola I've already backed, took a chance on the ground and looks like it's come right. Obviously suited by Newmarket looking at his win there. Will be well suited to the way this race unfolds, always like hold up horses in this. No weight, must have big chance.
  My Arch is another I follow but haven't bet yet, thought the price has been too short. Will thrive on the extra trip but drying ground's a worry. Might get outpaced at a crucial stage.

Theola out,tweaked a muscle. I never seem to have much luck ante-post.I don't need it, but can't seem to leave it alone.

ul Soul.

Deauville Flyer looks the clear value at 25s to me at this stage, a good pace over this trip is just what he needs.

Cheers Sint, unlucky Tompkins too, only left with Dazinsky, who he said obviously doesn't stay this trip when he ran over it behind Theola. Curious he's running him really.

UL to Theola backers but im very happy about that as a big red cad a/p backer, was one of the main dangers in my eyes

William Buick booked to ride La Vecchia Scuola

So cry is worried about the draw in a 2 1/4 mile race, I'd better bone up on the draw for the GRAND NATIONAL.

You could do worse than bone up on the draw history in the recent past for this race

Has one of the biggest draw biases of the racing calender, no matter that it's a 2m2f race

agree roger. similar to the Chester Cup in that sense.

bone up, bone up

Anyone got a boner yet ?

bazzar you clearly know fukk all...you should do your homework before you pi$$ take.

Don't be bard on bazzar. Until a few years ago I would have been likely to doubt the sanity of someone worrying about the draw in a 18 furlong race - it makes no sense. However its the single turn at the 10 furlong pole that stuffs the ones drawn out wide. They lose so much ground. If you are drawn high and drop your horse out the back on the inside, you have too much to do. if you are on the outside on the bend you are well stuffed. The only hope is to ride like Pat Eddery did when he won the Ebor on Give The Slip. break very smartly from the outside and get to the front and cross over to the rail Then slow the pace down to make up for the extra early effort. Sound easy - its not. The draw for the this race is basicall more important than for the Chester Cup or for the Stewards cup come to that. Sounds crazy - but its true bazzaar honest.

red cadeux  stall 5,  but only 32 runners

where d'ya get that please koo?

wetherbys

cool

Agree about the draw for this race done a study a few years back and found that those drawn between 17-23 were best drawn.

The reason is that these horses have the straightest route to the turn.

It will be a huge effort for a horse to win from other stalls especially those drawn low.

Have backed ocean's minstrel for the race a steering job !

I think something like 75% of the winners of the race in the last decade or so were drawn hight than 23 - a huge trend that does seem to prove the point.

Universal Truth must go off shorter than the 8's on offer here.  Like to be up with the pace which will suit from 32 and i'm Sir Tom will bang home the point again.  Red Cadeux backers can't be happy with 5.

Still can't accept that the draw plays a part in the result, if the jockey is convinced that he is badly drawn, then HE/SHE MUST take
avoiding action, although this has nothing to do with Cesarewitch,
Gitano Hernando was given a very poor ride in DUBAI WORLD CUP, totally sacrificing an excellent draw, in the belief that the leaders could be picked up and passed at ANY time, all of a sudden there is nowhere to go because of a wall of horses in front and around.
As regards EDDERY he used to throw a good draw away regularly in sprints and paid the price for it on several occasions.
Indeed it is endemic amongst jockeys to tootle along at the back and look like an unlucky loser, riders of YOUMZAIN, please note.

One of the worst judges of draw bias, gets it wrong FAR more times than right is McCririck, if he says that a draw is wrong then back your own judgement against his, I have backed many winners of the AYR GOLD CUP and totally ignored the draw on EVERY occasion.

As regards the AYR GOLD CUP, the earliest winner I can remember backing was ROMAN WARRIOR drawn one I think and top weight, many years later I backed ABLE ALBERT drawn 26 I think, I also remember backing a horse called EGUALITA and I only bring this up because it may have been before ROMAN WARRIOR, although I don't think so, but I backed it to win at MANCHESTER and that course closed in 1963.

King Revo had it won everywhere but the winning post a few years ago from stall one so low numbers shouldnt give up hope...still I find this one of the strangest draw bias stats around and hard to ignore.
Seems to be a race where horses who have previously run well in it will do so again so Dayia the main hope for me at the moment

CRY, we do agree wholeheartedly on your post in the Thatcher birthday thread.

Al Eile placed from stall 1 a few years back I remember.

I've been going to Champions Day since the mid-90's and this draw bias has always been there for the Ces, other than one yer when they rounded the turn and came down the stands side for reasons best known to themselves. One of Mary Reveley's won it (Turnpole?) and I think that was  a single figure draw.

Other supposed draw biases are nothing of the sort. It's to do with pace rather than the draw, other than at obvious places like Chester, in most cases.

My Arch, 16.5 on here  is enough for me to ignore ground worries.

tend to agree with bidders itch, Oceans Minstrel for me .. trainer form a worry though

Red Cadeaux driffy, had few quid win 16.5.

come on red cad back into 10s, top 4 will do nicely, 1st and the champers is out

Oceans Minstrel was bursting through at the finish

So Trev W and Rojerthebutler, it appears that no less a person than Lanfranco Dettori read my piece on the draw for the CESAREWITCH and tested my theory with a win on Never Can Tell,
if you accept everything you are told you will believe that ALL politicians are serving the electorate.
Mind you lots of people believe that there is a god.