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The Arc - what the sectionals show
The Arc - what the sectionals show
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Replies: 142
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PS That's their chances - not what I would lay or back them at fyi
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Figgis
PPS I'd take your 6/1 Bekhabad should you put it up  And lump on! |
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Sandown
I take it we're pricing up the hypothetical market on the basis of what we know now and everything getting a clear run, not another race being run after they'd already run in the Arc? |
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Sandown 07 Oct 10 10:17
requestingflyby Judging speed with aid of a stopwatch is useless or even worse. Every thing is relative. Sit in a car going at 60mph and watch car going at 100 mph - you seem to be at a standstill. Sit in a car doing 20mph and watch one go by at 60mph and it will seem faster than the one doing 100 in the first scenario. Its all relative. WF finished in 25.64 (slow by prev Arc winners ) and at Epsom it was 23.48 which was fast but the ground was fast. Fortuni over the same C&D finished in 23.51 and he was rated 85. Sandown, just had a go at doing some sectional times of the Epsom meeting and by my reckoning, the final 2f were run by both Fortuni and Workforce at Epsom quicker than 23 secs. Some perspective should be put on comparison with the "85 rated Fortuni" Fortuni finished in over 16 lengths slower final time than Workforce, and is now rated a 90+ horse, was also carrying 6lbs less than the 3yo. Add in the 15lb WFA allowance at that time of the year, 2lbs per length at 1m4f and Workforce has produced a 53lbs better figure than an "85 horse", who is clearly better than that. Looking at the comparisons of the sectionals at Epsom using the path crossings, Workforce has produced an amazing burst of speed from around Tattenham Corner into the finishing straight.... and run the final 2f somewhere closer to 22 secs than 23. He has smashed the track record, he must have run fast somewhere along the line, even accounting for Good To Firm ground? Sandown 07 Oct 10 11:39 I've only just updated my figures for the meeting after putting in the times for the last race over C&D which was a lowly h/c run just 3.2 secs slower than the Arc and in which the winner was given a RPR of 89 The 4yo Loonora who won the 12f hcap, carried 1lb less than Workforce. She finished in 3.2 secs slower time (or 16 lengths), and allowing for WFA/sex allowances, that makes Workforce 37lbs superior, maybe worth on RPR of 126, even though RP actually awarded 130. You are suggesting Workforce is slow compared to other Arc winners (WF finished in 25.64 (slow by prev Arc winners ) , and even on the references to the Derby, you are also suggesting his sectionals are nothing special. Do you not think you have underestimated this horse and hence not giving him the credit maybe deserves? |
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Figgis
how would you price up such a race? And what would you make Cape Blanco if he was added to the field? |
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pedrobob
Don't know where to start, really. Taking sectionals requires ideally stop-motion and digital timing so that you can get the furlong markers right. If using a stop-watch allow for reaction times.The parallax at Epsom is a real problem. I use TF's weight for age scale which has a 9lb difference. When making calculations it is necessary to allow for downill & uphill. Epsom is about as tricky a track as you can get apart from Goodwood. longchamp is a strange track too in that they finish faster than they should for a flat track and an allowance for that has to be used. The 7f track is odd too as is the 5f track. I'm not certain how I will leave the going allowance for Sunday because taking the handicap it pulls the figures down although I'm not happy with the rating reliability for the h/c winner . So its all a bit of a fudge.The sectionals for WF are what they are. I agree that he made a big move from the path to the 2f pole and deserves credit for that but I have given him a high 135 for the race anyway.What else? O yes. I don't work with lengths - stick with seconds, its more reliable as the conversion ratio changes with speed. |
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made a big move from the path to the 2f pole and deserves credit for that but I have given him a high 135 for the race anyway
in the Derby |
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Sandown Joined: 06 Dec 01
Replies: 529 07 Oct 10 13:51 Figgis how would you price up such a race? And what would you make Cape Blanco if he was added to the field? Which race? A hypothetical re-run or a race after the Arc? |
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Figgis
A new hypothetical race of course which won't ever take place |
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pedrobob
And 2bs per length is too much - more like 1.5 lbs |
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Well obviously I was well wide of the mark with Cape Blanco, but on viewing the race I don't believe he'd have won even over a shorter trip. He was over the top imo, which I had always said was a possibilty and why I wasn't full of confidence. It's difficult to price such horses up accurately beforehand because they could just as easily finish last as first. The same applied to Workforce before the race, he had competitive figures at his best and with obvious question marks about his rivals it was no surprise to see him win, but equally I wouldn't have been surprised to see him finish last, judged on his previous run and his unideal preparation, although in hindsight his long rest probably worked to his advantage.
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Before the Arc some people argued that the form of Bekhabad was not up to Arc winning standard and that the best form going into the Src was that shown when Workforce won brilliantly by miles at epsom. Some people disagreed - fair enough. if everone agreed there would be no book on here would there?
What happens - Workforce wins the Arc, showing a decent turn of foot on the ground and confirming his Epsom run was a high class effort and Bekhabad is unplaced. This is commonly known as the proof of the pudding. Now we have pages on how bekhabad was robbed by the way the race was run and that Workforce is still not much cop. I suspect the official handicapper, the racing post ratings and Timeform will have Workforce well ahead of Bekhabad. nevertheless there is no doubt that the people who thought Bekhabad's form was stronger than it turned out to be, will still argue the point. A bit like creationists and flat earth believers you cannot reason against blind faith. |
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''This is a freakishly good year for three year olds. So the fact that I rate Cape Blanco, Rewilding, Planteur and Behkabad ahead of Workforce shouldn't be allowed to obscure the fact that he's an exceptional talent.''- Nick Mordin
Funny, i had no intentions of letting that fact affect my opinion! |
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was a bit drunk when i posted all that, [smiley:crazy] however I don't think you have to watch the race over and over again to deduce bekhabad was not an unlucky loser.
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cryoftruth
Your sarcasm is a bit trying.Here are my last comments on the Arc thread, the second last on the Bekhabad thread and the para from this thread's opening post. In what way did I underestimate WF or state that Behkabad or Sarafina SHOULD have won? Arc thread Sandown When: 30 Sep 10 12:48 Workforce running increases the risk factor because of the uncertainty. He is capable of winning or going very close based on his Epsom form. The ground should help him as has the right action for it. It may have been the fast round at Ascot but it was also the fact that he had a very hard race at Epsom imo and looked less physically imposing at Ascot. Is he back to best or not? He has to be covered whatever if you are making a book. Bekhabad thread Sandown When: 19 Sep 10 16:11 pedrobob Appreciate that what you are saying is that those ratings are what you think those horses are "capable" of, and have not necessarily achieved, an important distinction. your understanding of what I am saying is spot on. All I would add is the qualifier "assuming that they are given a tactical ride which allows them to achieve an even pace." Of course, this might never be possible if the horse must be ridden from off the pace.Think Dancing Brave in the Derby. Then there are the other key factors of ground, distance, fitness etc. My ratings based on the final times for the bets performances of the horses you list are: Workforce 129 Cape Blanco 119 Harbinger 123 Behkabad 114 Planteur 113 Sarafina 98 NB It's very rare for final time ratings to actually match collateral ratings which in effect are also an assumption of what the horse could achieve on the clock The Arc - what the sectionals show Sandown 04 Oct 10 10:39 Joined: Date Joined: 06 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 1,713 | Blogger: Sandown's blog But take nothing away from Workforce. To my mind, and to open up the KG debate again, this was the horse that Stoute expected to win then and he in no way ran to form that day. From a punting standpoint, I won on the race, not daring to leave Workforce uncovered, but I would have won more more if any of the next 4 home had prevailed, so only half a drink. Nevermind. Before the race I had Workforce putting up the best time performance on 135 and I expected Bekhabad and Sarafina to improve considerably. They didn't improve as much as I expected but that was down to the way the race was run. |
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By: mythical prince When: 07 Oct 10 14:53 was a bit drunk when i posted all that, however I don't think you have to watch the race over and over again to deduce bekhabad was not an unlucky loser.
I have never said that Behkabad was an unlucky loser. What I have said time and time again is that the rough house resulted in any number of horses losing their chance and that WF got a clear run through (which was lucky). If he had met the same interference then the rsesult might have been different. |
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Crikey COT, You dont do "Gracious winner" very well, do you??
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yes sandown but it seems plenty were suggesting he was an unlucky loser. I mean the argument for sarafina is much stronger after further analysis (really shouldn't have polished off that entire bottle of whiskey last night
 ) however as usual in racing it's only opinions as we can never know for sure if she had won if she hadn't suffered interference. |
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zilzal1
Cryoftruth is guilty of reading something as he wants to read it and not as the actual words might be interpretated by anyone else. Now we have pages on how bekhabad was robbed by the way the race was run and that Workforce is still not much cop. I must have missed these pages A[i] bit like creationists and flat earth believers you cannot reason against blind faith.[/i Just so |
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Sandown, i'd concede WF got lucky in terms of avoiding the carnage in behind, sure, no worries. But I am gald he did. Im glad he backed up his Derby win, and deep down I think we all are. He is the main reason why we are discussing this race imo. If the Japanese horse had of Won there'd not be much discussion.
I'd also suggest if WF did not get through the gaps .. then many of us would be saying here and now the race was not run to suit, and that he was unlucky. It was a nightmare race for many, but the reality is imo , the best horse still Won. Thankfully. |
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Hate it when people do that. Spin something deliberatley.
Most posts on here are well thought out .. except for that one by COT |
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Yes sintonian, this has been a well constructed and debated thread, with plenty of thought provoking comment.
Whether I am right or wrong, or neither, there is food for thought here. But, as in all walks of life, it is those who are incapable of joining-in who want to spoil the party. What is it that mum's say to their children; "play nicely and you'll be invited back". |
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Bekhabad going to the US .. they will decide on WF next week .. I dont think he'll go though, had a tough race imo.
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