I think it is relevant sintonian. Some horses love the chase, but never like getting their head in front (I'm sure we all know loads of these types). I'm not saying Sarafina is such a horse, it is just another variable to consider.

Gerald Mosse seemed quite satisfied with Sarafina's run - said the knock from Midas Touch gave her a breather.

If Mosse did say that then he has an agenda to pursue. Perhaps he is being defensive over being caught out when he might have seen it coming. Getting checked in a run, almost being knocked out of the saddle, is a blow from which you do not recover at any level. It's a short run in at Longchamp and it was a big result that Serafina even got placed after that. She could easily have finished last and I wouldn't have been surpised. To say that she wasn't gaining on the winner at the end and therefore wouldn't have won is a nonsense statement. In actual fact she gained 0.64 secs from the 2f pole; more like 1 second from when it happened although I couldn't get the clock on it to be sure. Coming round the outside also gave away ground. It was an unbelievable run.

Workforce covered the last 2f in 25.64 secs (Sea The Stars did it in 23.0,Zarkava in 22.48,Dylan Thomas in 24.24 - go back to soft grnd Arcs like Dalakhani who ran 25.36,Sakhee in 25.24, - Montjeu took 25.92 in much softer ground)- WF is a stronmg galloper who got the breaks probably because the jockey bought some lucky heather before the race).

This was a race where there were enough hard-luck stories to say that the result might have been very different and for that reason to say that the best horse won is silly. STS and Zarkava, yes you can say that. This time, no its not clear.

Just to be clear. I am in no way saying that WF is an average horse. On his Derby win I gave him the highest rating for years but no-one wanted to believe he was that good. The Arc win was in a below average Arc time and although it was obviously a better race than the Derby, the level he ran to wasn't.There was no luck needed at Epsom but there was on Sunday.

Sandown, it isn't unusual for the Arc to turn out to be a weaker race than the hype and strong line-ups suggest it will be. Sea the Stars, Dylan Thomas and Zarkava had all run better performances on the clock than they did in the Arc.

Sandown: you've been on this forum a very long time so as a long-term player I respect your opinion.
Accepting all your statements about lucky breaks and racetime etc, at the end of the day, horses have to have a level of ability in order to succeed at Group 1 level, and that ability has to be relevant to the race they are competing in.

Workforce has the ability to succeed over 12f at Group 1 level. That cannot be disputed now.
Nakayama Festa ditto, as does Behkabad and Fame And Glory (Youmzain also, but he has come to the end of the road now).

Sarafina is unproven at Group 1 level over 12-furlongs, despite 2 attempts, both on her favoured "soft" ground.
Also, none of her family have succeeded at any Group level over 12f.
Yes, she suffered interference, but before you can consider her to be unlucky you need to know that she would have been capable of winning had the interference not occurred. Until she wins a Group 1 over 12f then the jury is out - personally, I think she will struggle to win a Group 1 at 12f (for reasons above).

Going back to the Arc, I would agree that Sarafina gained ground on Workforce between the 2f and 1f poles - but that was when Workforce was weaving his way to the front, whereas Sarafina was motoring in-the-clear down the outside, so no surprise there - but, once Workforce was in the clear, I don't think Sarafina made significant impression.

Wayward Lad

Sarafina is top-class I can assure you. I had my doubts over whether she would stay 12f - on her last 2 runs I no longer have those doubts. I believe that soft gtound is not her favoured ground - I believe she is better on fast ground. The official ground descriptions of her wins are misleading. Look at her action. However, she is only medium-sizedat best and not too robust and I think the Arc was not her cup of tea.I believe she can win a G1 at 12f against her own sex. Whether she can against colts depends on ground, field size. Against colts she may be better over 10f but her breeding suggests she should get 12f (DI 0.6 CD -0.21) even though her sire was a miler.

geoffm

I believe bookies like to lay unlucky horses if they are over-bet next time

Workforce had to avoid all these problems just like every other horse. It wasn't like he was on his own with a free run down the outside. He used his class and pace to weave and avoid trouble which the others failed to do.

Sarafina was flying at the end of the Vermeille!!! So was her 100-1 pacemaker Ashiyla, after Thierry Jarnet stopped looking around and gave her a push and shove! Sarafina only beat the pacemaker by a short head in that race, I personally don't think Sarafina is as good as people are making out and to say she would have won the Arc without the interference is a bit daft!!!

The 3 year old fillies this year have been pretty average to say the least and she is probably the best of them!!!

Looking at the replays of the Arc I think WF was below his best and still ultra impressive. The thing I liked the most about this performance it looks like the first time he didn't hang. 5 starts an Arc a Derby and IMO he has been a big baby all year up to the Arc. His best performance was the Derby showing his raw talent but I think the Arc was soo much more professional. I hope he does continue to train on as a 4 year old because we could see one of the best 4 year olds ever.

I'm still staggered to find that people here think Bekhabad wasn't unlucky? Fair enough, Sarafina nearly got knocked over but her momentum going forward wasn't that badly impeded, but she probably lost a couple of lengths as a consequence.

Bekhabad was stopped at least twice, if not three times, losing as much ground, probably more. He was going at least as well as Workforce when they were both attempting to make ground, and while I'm not saying he would have won, Bekhabad should have been serving it up to Worforce in the final stages.

Also, and this is another thing I find strange from people who have watched the race here, Bekhabad showed a clear turn of foot when gaining any room. He used it to get through the sandwich late on that included Fame And Glory and Cavalryman, and then quickened again when in the clear. However, there was a 100 yards to go, he was never going to get to the first three, so why would Lemaire bother?

It was a stupid ride with hindsight and sell everything you have to back him in Hong Kong if he races there. Unless he messes up again, he'll bolt up. Indeed, they are missing a trick not going for the BC Turf.

What people forget is that "unlucky" horses are ridden from where they are, and end up getting caught in traffic, because:
a) they are not good enough to make their own pace or be ridden prominently, and need pacemakers etc
b) are not classy (relative to the race they are in) or speedy enough to get out of trouble when it does arrive

Sandown, have you done sectionals on every horse in this race? Does it show which horse ran the best furlong or 2 furlong split time? Would be 80% sure it was Workforce, only other possible candidate would be Sarafina, Behkabad not even close

When looking back at most Arcs, they are nearly all rough races due to 20 strong fields going around bends, rather than up a straight. Yet despite the hard-luck stories of those behind, the winner is invariably proven to be the best horse.

Anyway, enough of all this, what about the real star of the card and the best performance shown, Goldikova

Sandown, I too was surprised how well the Japanese horse ran (basically 'cos I had no idea about the horse's form) but his final time figure was pretty decent, taking the severe wfa difference into account.

Behkabad not good enough.

I've never really taken to Goldikova. A lot of the Group 1s she's won have been weak affairs - races only promoted to G1 status in recent years - and that she's never been run in the Sussex or QEII is disappointing. Still they've found a away to keep winning races with her and her consistency over 3 seasons has been remarkable.

We get this in NH too - where the latest Irish novice chaser is always the new Arkle.

Hawkwing got to the furlong pole on the bridle on very testing ground tbf.

Goldikova's form over the last three years has been sensational and she has proved how amazing Zarkava was. Two of the best I've seen!!