Horse Antepost
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For anyone who still believes that the outcome of horseraces can be predicted in advance, this race proved that it is often how the race pans out that determines the result, and luck in-running is very hard to determine beforehand.
The race pace was fairly even to start - a good strong gallop but not out of the ordinary . From 1000m (5f) to 600m(3f) the pace quickened and as the 3f pole is at the beginning of a right turn the field was moving at this point. What happened between the 3 and 2f pole determeined the outcome. The field slowed significantly at this point and runners at the front couldn't go anywhere and the runners from behind made upo the ground on them so that the whole field concertined.
The chief sufferer at this point was Serafina, who went from being 1-2 lengths in front of Workforce to 3 lengths behind him, losing all momemtum, and being shoved wide.
As they entered the straight, the pace picked up again but there were no electifying tun of foots to come. Workforce had an incredibly clear run through given the problems that everyone else faced apart from the japanese Nak. Festa.
Behkabad never saw daylight until too late. Planteur didn't stay. Fame and Glory didn't have the toe and got hampered. Sarafina ran on to make up all bar 2.5 lengths and was the one who was most unlucky.
This Arc was not run in an exceptional time. I make Workforce running to 125 some way below his Derby rating. It was an exceptional training performance and an exceptional ride. Maybe Moore made his own luck. It was an exceptionally rough race. On another day, and with better luck, the **** horse might have won; so might Sarafina, so might Bekhabad. But take nothing away from Workforce. To my mind, and to open up the KG debate again, this was the horse that Stoute expected to win then and he in no way ran to form that day.
From a punting standpoint, I won on the race, not daring to leave Workforce uncovered, but I would have won more more if any of the next 4 home had prevailed, so only half a drink. Nevermind. Before the race I had Workforce putting up the best time performance on 135 and I expected Bekhabad and Sarafina to improve considerably. They didn't improve as much as I expected but that was down to the way the race was run.
The race pace was fairly even to start - a good strong gallop but not out of the ordinary . From 1000m (5f) to 600m(3f) the pace quickened and as the 3f pole is at the beginning of a right turn the field was moving at this point. What happened between the 3 and 2f pole determeined the outcome. The field slowed significantly at this point and runners at the front couldn't go anywhere and the runners from behind made upo the ground on them so that the whole field concertined.
The chief sufferer at this point was Serafina, who went from being 1-2 lengths in front of Workforce to 3 lengths behind him, losing all momemtum, and being shoved wide.
As they entered the straight, the pace picked up again but there were no electifying tun of foots to come. Workforce had an incredibly clear run through given the problems that everyone else faced apart from the japanese Nak. Festa.
Behkabad never saw daylight until too late. Planteur didn't stay. Fame and Glory didn't have the toe and got hampered. Sarafina ran on to make up all bar 2.5 lengths and was the one who was most unlucky.
This Arc was not run in an exceptional time. I make Workforce running to 125 some way below his Derby rating. It was an exceptional training performance and an exceptional ride. Maybe Moore made his own luck. It was an exceptionally rough race. On another day, and with better luck, the **** horse might have won; so might Sarafina, so might Bekhabad. But take nothing away from Workforce. To my mind, and to open up the KG debate again, this was the horse that Stoute expected to win then and he in no way ran to form that day.
From a punting standpoint, I won on the race, not daring to leave Workforce uncovered, but I would have won more more if any of the next 4 home had prevailed, so only half a drink. Nevermind. Before the race I had Workforce putting up the best time performance on 135 and I expected Bekhabad and Sarafina to improve considerably. They didn't improve as much as I expected but that was down to the way the race was run.
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I also have the race as an ordinary time for the conditions but I have Workforce running very near his Derby time, only 1lb slower. Before the race I had him as the 4th highest rated on the clock. 3lbs behind Cape Blanco (rated over a shorter trip) and just 1lb behind Behkabad and Planteur. I don't agree about the hard luck stories, in my view the best horse on the day won. Workforce went there a relatively fresh horse, it's obvious that others like F&G, Cape Blanco and Behkabad didn't perform right up to there best for one reason or another but I'm not making excuses for them, it's all about finding the best horse on the day.
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* their best
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the best horse on the day won.
Really don't agree with you. He mayhave been the best on the day but there were so many hardluck stories and because the race was not run in an exceptional time, there is a very strong chance that the result would have been different if Workforce had met with the same degree of interfence. The fact that he didn't says a lot for Moore's judgement but also underlines the fact that its small differences that often determine results. |
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The Japanese horse actually tightened up Workforce just as Moore was making his run but Workforce had the acceleration to get out trouble. Behkabad didn't show the same when he got a clear run. Obviously Sarafina suffered major interference but her late finish would also be exaggerated by not being able to make a move sooner and she wasn't gaining at the end of the race.
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Best horse clearly won, not run since the lamentable effort in the King George, was touch and go whether it would run and still wins.
The king George will remain a mystery, as he is clearly a very good horse. |
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Michael Stoute admitted on the BBC he overtrained Workforce for the King George, surprised this wasnt picked up by more punters.
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Maybe, but he's hardly going to want to publicly blame the horse.
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Figgis
You under-estimate what actually happens when a horse loses ground as a result of being impeded. It not only loses the distamce - about 5l in safinas case - but also because it has been slowed down it takes a huge effort to regain its momemtum to get back to its previous speed. The fact that she finished just 2.5 lengths down is proof that given an equally clear run as WF she would have gone very close indeed to winning. As for Behkabad its clear fromthe video that his jockey tried to go outside the horse in front (which inadvertantly started the knock back which caused the interference to Serafina.) He then stuck to the inside and never got out until about 1f out. he is a horse that doen't have an instant turn of foot and needs time to wind up. He is also a stayer and the shape of the race wqas not in his favour. If Moore had been on the runner-up the result would have been different too. Just 3 reasons why the best horse on the day was maybe not the winner. |
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Sandown, I can't agree about Behkabad, if anything it looked to me that Workforce was getting further away from him at the finish. Sarafina hadn't shown form as good as Workforce beforehand so I'd be very doubtful that the interference cost her the race, we see "unlucky" losers every day that don't go on to reverse the form, but it's all about opinions. I agree though that Moore made a difference.
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I agree Sandown, imo Sarafina would have won with a clear run. She was at least a length, if not 2, in front of Workforce when Midas Touch nearly brought her down leaving her about 3 lengths behind him when in the end she was 2 and 3/4 lengths behind him in the end. If she didn't lose those 4-5 lengths she HAS to be at the very least upsides Workforce and thats not considering the energy she used up staying on her feet and coming round everything, energy which would have made her final run ever better!! I am convinced Sarafina would have won but thats only my opinion.
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Senor E.B
I worked out the maths on this once for myself, in very simlpe terms.Roughly speaking, for every 10% faster you need 20% more energy. So, dropping speed is more damaging than the actual ground lost in terms of extra energy required. The jockey almost came off, she slowed appreciably and she was pushed wide. Unlucky loser? i should say so and I that's not talking through my pocket as I won reasonbly well on WF although she would have won me more. |
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Think Workforce is the type of horse who needs to be held up out the back, dodging all those who raced up the front
Certainly helps when you get 8lbs off older animals like the japanese horse Richard Hughes said the Arc would run like a handicap, fair play to Moore he played his cards the way they were dealt but then again the uk racing scene is chock full of 'chimpanzees' (as mick channon would hav it) like him who would prefer to sit out the back watching events unfold The King George showed he won't take prominent running so the moral of the story appears to be back him at 6/1 in a big field Unlikely we'll get such punting conditions again More likely he'll be giving up first run to other G1 winners in the future, probably without the aid of a handy (& some would say anachronistic at this time of the season) 8lb 3yo weight allowance If I were prince cab calloway he'd be off to stud next yr |
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Win Only pointed it out earlier, WF had no prep.
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Fair play to workforce, and point taken about sarafina, but Nakayama Festa had to be snatched up at the 3f pole by his jockey just as he'd begun his run costing him momentum that he did well to regain and nearly take the spoils.
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I backed Sarafina and think she would have won with a clear run. Whereas they usually get away with it (StS, Zarkava, Hurricane Run etc) for once in the Arc the big field did for those trying to come from behind. Very rough race probably too many mediocre horses in it.
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I've watched the replay a number of times now, and I cannot agree with the suggestion that Workforce "had an incredibly clear run through given the problems that everyone else faced apart from the japanese Nak. Festa;!"
Watching the race live, I was amazed that the horse saw daylight as he had to battle his way thru' (past Fame And Glory) and, rather than impeding Lope de Vega, that horse died on its feet 2f out in front of him and Workforce only just found the room to jink past, at all times being held in by Nakayama Festa on his outer. There were lots of hard luck stories, and I admit that Sarafina had a bad knock from Midas Touch - but why Mosse didn't see that one coming (every other jockey avoided the horse) I don't know. I can see why Behkabad can be considered unlucky, as he could not find a way past Fame And Glory, Cavalryman and Planteur. I thought the jockeyship of Dettori and Murtagh was poor as the trouble they found was of their own making. Over the final 2f, I don't think that Sarafina made-up more than a yard (if that) on Workforce. The 1st-4 all stayed the trip best and were passing beaten horses. It is hypothetical to suggest that without the bump from Midas Touch, Sarafina would have maintained its 2-length advantage over Workforce and won. It's likely that Mosse would have held-up his horse until the colts had committed themselves, and so he may not have asked Sarafina for an effort until he was passed by Workforce on his inner (by which time it would have been too late). Mosse had no other choice but to go for it after losing ground (due to the bump), but that is not how he would have ridden the horse had the race gone as planned. The best horse won (IMO). |
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People can't agree before a race, they can't agree after a race. I don't say that Serafina would have won, just that she lost a lot of ground and momemtum which cost her much more than she lost by. That's a fact. Whether there would have been a different outcome if she hadn't been affected is not fact, but opinion.Same with bekhabad and the second. There is more than enough doubt involved for me not to be able to say with any degree of certainty that the best horse won. Neither can anyone else.
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Topweight is spot on about Nakayama Festa, the reverse camera on the last bend showed how the weakening Midas Touch caused a lot of carnage and knocked Festa off his stride plus some other horses!!! Ebina rode a cracking race up until the last furnlog where he proved he wasn't strong enough in a finish!!! Congrats to Workforce backers.
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one of the best threads for a while
 it seems the ground was a lot better than i thought, or am i wrong about that. in the abbaye they were quite close to standard but thats run on a shute. any opinions on the ground (time wise)? |
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the best horse won. fact
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Round course was just about soft, gart.
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gart
The times indicate that the ground rode soft generally but there were some oddities. The time for Wootton Basset was incredibly fast if a true soft ground allowance is used and Misty For Me finished in a faster time than soft ground should allow. The Arc front 4 did not finish in fast times and even Sarafina was only faster relative to the others. The Abbaye was run in a time you'd expect with Gilt Edge Girl's rating.The RP Topspeed have described the ground as "good to soft" but I think it was a bit slower than that. It was certainly not as soft as Sat's times indicated. |
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Topspeed rating for Workforce given as a slow 107
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I agree with you Sandown, that Sarafina lost a lot of ground - probably about 4 lengths - but she was then able to take advantage of an unimpeded run down the outside for the best part of 3 furlongs; something that was denied to those that finished in the 1st-5 (Nakayama Festa apart).
Workforce certainly did not get a clear run, but neither did Behkabad (who was without racing room until the last 150 yards). As for Fame And Glory, he was knocked about like a pinball and (IMO) suffered worst of all as he had no race left to recover in. Cavalryman also suffered interference. You cannot look at the performance of a single horse in isolation, in a race that was pretty rough. |
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No Mastermind, that's opinion. Yours, not mine. But I am not saying either that WF wasn't the best horse in the race.Maybe.Maybe not.
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Sandown, I have the 7f course a bit quicker than the round course, this gives Wootton Bassett a figure equal to his very good York effort and has Goldikova a few pounds slower than her excellent best. The 5f straight was quickest of all and reads more like good ground, but I have no idea how much that time would have been affected by any wind conditions.
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Aidan's pacemaker causes carnage again. Did they really need to run Midas Touch ?
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No Sint!!!
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Wildenstein's was as much to blame. Baffles me why those connections always have a pacemaker since it never does more than set a steady pace which is pretty much guaranteed anyway.
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Agree with various posters that Sarafina would have gone very close with a clear run. Whilst others such as Fame And Glory and Behkabad didn't get an unimpeded run, they didn't pick up strongly enough once in the clear, like Sarafina, to suggest they could have got much closer.
But one thing that has not been been noted about the winner. Some seem to think Moore got lucky whilst others didn't. In a race that wasn't run at a breakneck gallop, hence the bunching towards the straight, Workforce came from further back than ALL his protagonists, and clear run or not, he had the class and speed to avoid any trouble that was coming - and that is a big credit to the horse, and also the jockey. Remember, things got tight for Workforce as well, especially when Nakayama Festa looked to be slamming the door in his face, but he had the speed and courage to get himself out of it. I suspect the best horse won, and given a rerun, would certainly be with Workforce. |
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Ye you have pretty much said what I was going to pedrobob. The reason I think the best horse won Sandown is because he could easily have been right in the middle of it all. He was right on the rail furthest back and still managed to scythe through the lot of them before the carnage. Good riding from Ryan Moore but he couldn't have done it without the bravery, strength and ability the horse had beneath him.
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Fair play to Workforce but Pedro your comment about Festa looking to slam the door in his face is a bit strong, they both galloped as straight as a dye to the line, the head on shot with the lanes proves that!! The best jockey won the race on the day and that's how I see it!!
It's pretty obvious now that Workforce is a better horse fresh (three hard runs in succession couldn't have suited a big horse like him) and it would be good to see him stay in training because I think like many others he will be an even better 4 year old! |
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whatever way u look at it, sarafina was almost brought down so its stupid to assume she would not have finished closer than she did at the line, its that simple.
like many i feel she wouldve won. i also think the **** horse wouldve won if ryan was on board that one and the **** rider on WF, the **** rider looked more tired than his horse imo! |
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i disagree wavingbuses. I dont think she would have been much closer at all maybe a length. She took a fair old bump but I don't think she lost more than a length or 2 maximum. She starts to power home gets within 2 and a half lengths but fails to get any closer. I backed her as well as workforce and I agree the bumping certainly did her know favours but imo being wide helped her a lot. I don't really see her as much of a battler tbh.
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And as for the Japanese horse he never once got past Workforce and although Ryan Moore is one of the best you can't say it was only the jockey.
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Come on Sarafina lost more than a length or 2 she lost at least 4 lengths on workforce just from the interference from midas touch. Then you can add in extra lengths to compensate the loss of engergy and momentum but that can only be opinion, I think she would have finished around 6 lengths closer. I'm not saying she would have won for definate as Workforce may have pulled out more we will never know. I'm not trying to be argumentative it's just my opinion.
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No matter how good a horse is, race preperation is absolutely key, especially at the top level. Imho, Workforce had simply not recovered from his Derby effort in time for the KG. Similar can be said of Rewilding in the Leger.
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I would have liked to see Rewilding in the Breeders Cup Turf and Cape Blanco in the Classic, funnily enough Arc placed(and unplaced) have a better record at the BC
Didnt have a bet in the Arc as there were quite a few scenarios in my mind and as i didnt play AP, none of them appealed on the day |
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i can see where your coming from with momentum but there is no way to measure how much was lost is there? if you look at the corner when shes bumped shes maybe a length in front of workforce who is just quickening up at the time. after the corner she is 2 lengths behind workforce who is quickening away. the jockey would never have commited sarafina that early anyway so its a combination of losing momentum and being left behind by a horse committing to his run early.IMO she would not have won anyway. She may have got closer but she's not as good as the winner or the 2nd horse IMO.
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