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Looks a bad race this year surly if he turns up won't take much winning
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You are being serious ?
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wht u think will win then huh ???
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On what basis would you be backing SNA?
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Um saying if it turns up doesn't look a good race therefore wont hav much to beat
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More chance of me getting laid 30 times in a week than SNA even turning up for the Arc..Even if it runs it has no chance imo
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wont hav much to beat
other than the 2 dozen or so better horses in Europe |
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Be interesting to see where they start him off again
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obrien said it wont even be starting for 4 or 5 weeks yet which would rule it out the arc.mind you he said it was a defo for the derby.
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:o
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where are these better horses then must not know n e thing bout racing if you say he has no chance
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Would be one of the all-time great training performances to get this to win an Arc, and it aint happening.
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SNA hasn't even contested at over a mile yet in his life and you'd consider backing him against Europe's best in the Arc?
Again, on what basis do you think he could beat these? |
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The 'basis' you are asking about is this:
1) Went into winter quarters as potentially a superstar. 2) Ran 3 times unbeaten as 2 y old including a Group 1. 3) Was hot favourite for possibly the best 2000 Guineas for a decade and not beaten far. 4) Stable companions he was rated higher than have won the Irish Derby and been placed in the English Derby and King George among others. Even his Guineas form ties in closely with the best the French have to offer. 5) Rated 124 with current favourite rated 128. 6) Will not be over the top. 7) Opposition this year looks particularly weak with 2nd fav. Behkabad finishing only a neck in front of Viscount Nelson (AOB) in the Prix du Jockey Club. 8) Definitely has that touch of class. Here are a few reasons why it would not be a complete surprise if St Nicholas Abbey won the Arc. There is no doubt however that time is running out but in the past he has shown he is not a horse difficult to get fit. Good luck. |
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9. so youve just discarded everything aiden obrien has said about him.
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10. Crowded House
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The question I answered was 'on what basis do you think he can beat these?' with reference to the finest Europe has to offer in this year's Arc. Not that I thought he would run in it hence the Good Luck.
I find it difficult to read AOB most of the time. Now, apparently, Capo Blanco may run in the St Leger, who knows? |
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With reference to Crowded House, Graeme83, I think the trainer f u c k e d up. The best form this horse has is sitting out the back getting settled then finishing. But instead of dropping him in class or keeping him to Group 3 level, he is not a Group 1 horse ffs, he ran 2 good races in Group 3, they then ran him in a Group 1 ffs.
After he returned home and they then ran him in a Group 3 but this time they changed the successful tactics and had him up with up with the pace from a terrible draw. Wrong. Notwithstanding this they then had a brainstorm and raised him in class and trip (12f)against Harbinger in a Group 2 and again had him bang up with the pace or disputing it. Oh dear. Not learning from this they ran him at Newmarket again over 12f and again sitting in the first three but not settling (watch the race). Had they reverted to his best tactics, like the winner Sans Frontier, sitting out the back he may have got home. And finally they sent him to the US over 9f and sitting out the back finished 3rd running on. Ffs Meehan get the trip and tactics right. How many chances do you need. |
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Crowded House stayed in the US and will be trained there so watch out because given the right trip and tactics there is a good race or races in him.
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If he is starting him off again in 4-5 weeks then I reckon that he will have him spot on for Chelters in March.............
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Bigrust1 - my reference to Crowded House is my way of saying that winning a Racing Post doesn't make you a very good 3 y/o, let alone an Arc winner. If SNA was as good as they say he is, which he isn't, then he would be aimed and primed for the Arc. The fact of the matter he is complete and utter over hype who wasn't even good enough to run int he Derby. Given that they ran Midas Touch and Jan Vermeer, then it pretty much says it all. I wouldn't be suprised if SNA doesn't even make it to the track. Just look at Steinbeck.
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Won't been seen until he starts covering mares next season.
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Yes I know Graeme83. My point about Crowded House was that he is only really a Group 3 horse but has been messed about with. And shows how a trainer can completely mess up a good horse.
The St Nick point though I have to disagree with you. His form, 2 lengths behind Dick Turpin in the Guineas(even when not right), puts him well ahead of Cape Blanco who is a better horse than Midas Touch and Jan Vermeer thus making him their (AOB's) best 3 year old. How close Cape Blanco is to Workforce is debatable but puts him, St Nick, up there as potentially one of the best 3 year olds around. I also think he will run again, unless sold to race abroad, because breeding is not as profitable as it was that is why Rip Van Winkle and Fame and Glory remained in training. St Nick has definitely not done enough to go to stud imo. |
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It is possible, the classic generation of middle distance colts and fillys are terrible.
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Your right[;)] Neill
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Ludicrous. What was wrong with him in the Guineas? He was hyped to the absolute max by everyone, sent off evens for the Guineas based on 2yo form only. How you can even attempt to use his 2yo form as a reasonable basis for the likelyhood of him winning the Arc is beyond me. SNA hasn't even run beyond a mile yet. Just because breeding says 1m4f is going to suit, doesn't mean it will. His rating of 124 is also irrelevant. Never raced further than a mile I'd like to point out again.
You say he wasn't beaten far in the Guineas? Neither were Red Jazz, Fencing Master, Elusive Pimpernell (who reversed 2yo form) and Xtension. Red Jazz and Fencing Master haven't won a race since, including FM going off 1/3 favourite. Elusive Pimpernell hasn't raced since. Xtension didn't improve upon that and has now been sold abroad. Only Buzzword and the top three have done anything of note so far. My question was 'on what basis would you be backing SNA?' and it still hasn't been answered. He has no form whatsoever to say he'll win an Arc, we've yet to see him over 12f or even beyond a mile and just before Derby day O'Brien said he'd lost his 'sparkle on the gallops'. So what in this world, other than his 2yo HYPE, would make you even consider him for the Arc? |
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How does his Guineas form put him above Cape Blanco by the way? I'm guessing it's because you believe SNA to be so superior over 1m4f, despite him racing over it yet?
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He won't race again i can promise you
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Oh dear Wicketd I will refrain from going through the whole formbook with you but will precise the important points just for you.
To start with 'hype' is where a horse is perported to have shown a greater ability 'off' the track than it has 'on' the track. To counter this I will say that in the Guineas Elusive Pimpernel was beaten 3 1/4 lengths by the winner whereas in the Racing Post Trophy he was beaten 3 3/4 lengths by SNA. That is 'fact' not 'hype'. On that piece of form alone SNA had every right, if fully fit, to be fighting out the finish in the Guineas. Even allowing for the fact that Elusive Pimpernel 'was' fully fit that day and had already won this season. The comparison with Cape Blanco is through the French horse Lope de Vega who beat Dick Turpin 1/2 length in the French Guineas (DT beat SNA 2 1/4 lengths in 2000 Guineas) then beat Cape Blanco 8 3/4 lengths in Prix du Jockey Club. To deal with the other Guineas horses for you: Xtension has run well in 4 Group 1s and a Group 2 and may be paying the price for some hard races. Red Jazz won the Free handicap and was blinding fit for the Guineas. Fencing Master looks a bit dodgy now and Elusive Pimpernel hasn't run since but won the Craven easily and was bang fit in the Guineas. Early in the season AOB's horses were not running well and he may have asked too much of SNA when he wasn't prepared for it. Even so he ran very well and I am looking forward to him returning to the track. |
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You think CB gave his true running in France? This is why your formlines are failing, and always will. It is absolutely HOPELESS to just say horse A beat horse B by 2 lengths, so horse B holds/can be expected to beat horse C by 4 lengths. It just makes no sense. Lope De Vega then went on to finish 8/8 in the Prix Jean Prat, behind Dick Turpin, Xtension and Hearts of Fire. You know that's not his true running, so wouldn't take it literally. Also, you're mixing formlines over different distances, which again is utterly ridiculous.
SNA was a very impressive 2yo, but there have been MANY impressive 2yo's over the years tha have failed to show the same as a 3yo. With STS around last year SNA's potential THREE YEAR OLD career was HYPED to the absolute max. That is fact. |
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coronation at epsom like yeats?
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 Brigust, with your interpretation of the formbook, you clearly have this game by the balls. The only question I have is how you find time to post on here when surely counting your winnings takes up most of the day? |
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what utter nonsense brigust. Cape Blanco in the french derby ffs, if you're using that form how can you say Behkabads form is awful?
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Wickedt tell me what formline shows that SNA was 'hyped' more than his 'form' has shown.
And yes I do follow form lines generally because that is all we have otherwise all there is is 'hype'. AOB had always thought that SNA was his best 3 year old and I have no reason as yet to believe otherwise. You are clutching at straws with Lope de Vega's Jean Prat run because he was clearly not right that day and finished last. You will have noticed I did not use this line of form. Also if you take a line through Lope de Vega, Planteur, Rewilding, Jan Vermeer and Cape Blanco you will get a similar result. Of course some of the distances get mixed up because this is not a perfect world, you have to take that into consideration otherwise all you have left is hype. Finally are you saying Cape Blanco is AOB's best 3 year old? |
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All I said is that it is possible TisWal, He's obviously a good horse and it's going to be an ordinary renewal, Sole Power won the Nunthorpe.
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If o'Brien said St Nick was going to run and threw in a few positive work reports the price would tumble.
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So you're willing to concede that LDV wasn't right on that day, but are happy to use Cape Blanco formlines when he wasn't right in the French Derby? Do me a favour. Distances should never get mixed up when comparing horses through formlines. Can't believe I'm having to actually say that.
SNA's RP Trophy win finished off a very good 2yo career, BUT, it was that win that got people carried away, and ultimately hype this horse up to the max. Some on this forum were hyping it up to win the Guineas/Derby/Arc ffs! STS' perfect season left people looking for a horse to take over. |
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Desmond I hope you are not gambling today on these cards. Fifteen low grade handicaps and 3 maidens. I'm definitely not risking money today, thanks.
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Bellamy did I say Behkabad's form was awful? I don't think so. But lets face it if he wins the Arc it will not be among the best Arc's ever run, will it.
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Wicketd 25 Aug 10 17:17
SNA's RP Trophy win finished off a very good 2yo career, BUT, it was that win that got people carried away, and ultimately hype this horse up to the max. Some on this forum were hyping it up to win the Guineas/Derby/Arc ffs! STS' perfect season left people looking for a horse to take over. That is a matter of opinion!All I can tell you is that if you had seen SNA working you too would of been of the firm opinion that he was indeed a great horse,for what its worth I think he was hard trained for NMKT and by the time of the GNS he had had enough,certain horses don't last forever,if he can come back to his best then write him off at your peril as he will take a very good one to get past! |