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I don't dispute that he is a very good horse, and COULD be a very good 3yo. I just think that the hype thrown onto his potential 3yo career was ridiculous, and happened because of what STS achieved.
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no chance of winning the Arc - probably won't even run
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Can't see him running in the Arc myself,could see him back at HQ for the champion stakes AFTER a small race here in Ireland,Cape Blanco going to Doncaster.
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brigust you brought up his french derby form as an example of the weakness of the race, behkabad may have only beaten viscount nelso a neck in the french derby having a bad ride but he has improved since in winning the grand prix de paris & has been trained for this race, he will need to improve again but thats a hell of a lot more likely than st nicholas abbey improving enough to take this.
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Bellamy I brought the French Derby form up but never said Behkabar was awful but it would take another step forward for him to be top class, imo. He is definitely a case of the best available though if not the best possible.
I too cannot see SNA running in the Arc but I will not be laying him anytime soon. Thank goodness the 3 year old milers look top class this season because the longer distance runners do look a bit limited, I think you will agree? |
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Behkabad looks like a well exposed plodder to me. If it's won this year by a 3 year old colt it'll be a relatively unknown improving type who runs the race of its life and Arc day then disappears without a trace.
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*on Arc day
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more chance of a comet wiping out all life on earth than st nicholas abbey winning the arc.
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the shortness in the betting suggests hes going to turn up. idegive him a big chance wouldnt suprise me 1 buit if he won it
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Wow, that short MP?
You obviously don't think he will follow in the footsteps of his sire, Montjeu, and run in the Prix Niel on September 12th then on to the Arc? |
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I wouldn't lay him, noone kmows what is going on with him, I hardly feel qualified to have an oppinion
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SNA among the Prix Niel entries on 12th Sept. Next declaration stage 9th Sept. Would definitely be interesting.
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The gullible being reeled in again. He has an entry so they can say that's how much they think of him but he isn't quite ready yet. If he wins the Arc John McRirick will win 100m olympic gold.
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Please don't call me gullible Graeme. Personally I don't think he will run in either the Niel or the Arc but I won't be laying him anytime soon. If you read what I said I said it would be interesting. And even you have to agree that 'if' he ran it would be 'interesting'. So chill out ffs.
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It's our duty as forumites, punters and viewers to stop giving their horses more attention than other peoples. It only adds to the hype and gives lazy journos the ammo to write about them all the time. Why don't we make threads about other trainers whos horse won't run....let's make a thread about John Oxx sending Arazan.
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No Graeme. It gives those 'in the know' an opportunity to step up to the plate and let us know what is going on. That is what I am looking for. Anyway the Niel is for 3 year olds and Arazan (4) is more 'hype' than SNA because he hasn't won anything of note, he is just reputation.
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"Arazan (4) is more 'hype' than SNA because he hasn't won anything of note"
That's a load of mince. How can their be more hype surrounding an injured horse than SNA, who is one of the most over hyped horses of all time. What has SNA done apart from win a race that Crowded House won a year before ? |
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good to see everyone's opinions :)
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Is that the same race won by Derby winners Authorized, Motivator and High Chaparral? He has won a Group 1 unlike Arazan. He has finished 6th in the 2000 Guineas unlike Arazan. He was unbeaten as a 2 year old unlike Arazan. He is ready to return to the track unlike Arazan. Is that enough for you?
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Same race won more recently by Crowded House and Ibn Khaldun. It is known that SNA was getting done on the gallops by Midas Touch. Now they have either sprinkled magic dust on him, or he just isn't anywhere near as good as the hype suggested ?...it was the same as Rainbow View and it will be the same as other horses. It's no big deal but you need to take the blinkers off. The horses O'Brien trains have 4 legs like everyone elses.
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that when the problem wid SNA was highlighted as previously was murdering all on the gallops it may have been a mixture of Midas Touch improving has shown good from this year and SNA being below form that why he has been off. Basically due to hype his guineas run was deemed below par but look what all the horses around him has done since. The point of this thread was to highlight that if were to run in a poor looking arc 50s on here a few weeks back would look good on the day ;)
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Ok let's look at Fencing Master, Red Jazz and Al Zir.
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Calm down Graeme, you do make me chuckle.
AOB elected SNA as his best 3 year old this year. Nothing that has happened so far has disproved that fact. In fact there is still every possibilty he may be proved right. Of course there is also the possibilty that SNA may not be as good as they or we first thought. Don't forget Ryan Moore chose Workforce instead of Harbinger. And I am sure MS was fully behind him. Things happen and, unlike you, we do not have the benefit of hindsight. If, as you say, SNA was over hyped then that would provide you with a great opportunity to make some dough so instead of moaning just cash in. However where I totally and absolutely disagree with you is when you say the horse was over hyped. He was not. He was, hopefully, the champion we all look forward to every year through the winter months and the beginning of a new flat season, the classics. No-one knew what the future held but he was unbeaten in three races. He had won possibly the best Group 1 of the year impressively. His trainer stated he was the best he had in training and his list of good 2 year olds was long. That is not hype. That is fact. Whether you believe that or not is your problem. The trainer, the jockey, the press, the formbook and everyone else who follow him may have been wrong but they are facts, like it or not. |
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Give over Rust. I have believed the hype with regards to o'briens horses because it has worked out more often than not in the past few years. However this season it's abundantly obvious his 3 y/o are not up to the standard you'd expect. SNA may be his best 3y/o, but that doesn't mean a great deal considering he's vying with Jan Vermeer, Cape Blanco and Steinbeck. The Racing Post trophy you enthusiastically refer to on a regular basis was run on gd/sft, and the top 5 included Morana and Dancing david. These are facts.
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Graeme, Graeme, Graeme. You must start trying to make your case without the benefit of hindsight. That is the position I am, and have always been working from.
At the time of the Guineas the winner of the RP Trophy (SNA) hadn't run but the 2nd and 4th had run, in the Craven, and run impressively. Supporting the so called 'hype' surrounding SNA. Al Zir, had been unbeaten prior to his 3rd in the RP trophy, and the word from Godolphin, at the time and supported by FD riding him in the Guineas, that he was their best 3 year old. Everything surrounding SNA and even the subsequent success of the first three in the 2000 Guineas show that AOB had every right to think he was thier best horse. This is definitely and absolutely not hype. Subsequent results may mean they, and I, were wrong but that is only with the benefit of hindsight. A precious commodity available only to a select few. |
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There's nothing wrong with hindsight when a horse does nothing at 3 and is hyped after beating Dancing david and Morana at 2 on gd/sft.
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He could be anything
, that's why I'sd haste to lay him, what if he brings his early homework to the track? |
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entered up in dundalk for breeders cup prep
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Maybe they are moving the Arc to Dundalk this year. I'm sure Rusti will be along to explore the possibility.
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Graeme, Graeme, Graeme. Please read the thread. I did say I didn't expect SNA to run in the Niel or the Arc. Only that it would be interesting if he did.
You must agree it would be interesting if he did, surely? And of course you did say you wouldn't be surprised if SNA never ran again. Let's not forget that, shall we. |
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A few things here.
Graeme - SNA was not getting tonked on the gallops by MT, this is fact - not silly speculation or rumour. When judging horses i find it more profitable to judge a horse on ability and form rather that it happened to win a certain 2 year old mile race that i simply have never liked. The fact it ran in the racing post, which seems to be your whole anchor of your argument is not only silly but illogical. Btw im a celtic man and am not after an argument. Cheers. |
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What has come out of the RP ?
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Same as the Dewhurst...........SFA!
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Shakespeare
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'There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing is done!'
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Brigust must have the patience of a saint for this argument.
I'm betting graeme was on the Rip Van Winkle is all hype bandwagon last year too after the Dewhurst/Guineas/Derby. |
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But the trouble is they hardly ever go off at really fancy prices because of the hype, even in you followed RVW through the losing times you cant have made much of a profit unless you like Martin Gayle
Then you ARE going to go skint following the wrong one |
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Aidan O'Brien's highly-touted St Nicholas Abbey is a fascinating possible contender for the Diamond Stakes at Dundalk on October 1.
The Montjeu colt has been off the track since losing his unbeaten record when sixth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in May, but features among 32 entries for this 10-furlong contest - part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge 'Win And You're In' Series. Ralph Beckett's Muhannak won the inaugural running in 2008 and went on to land the Breeders' Cup Marathon at Santa Anita, while O'Brien's Mastercraftsman was victorious last year and signed off his career with a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. As well as St Nicholas Abbey, the Ballydoyle handler has left in the classy Steinbeck and Beethoven. Other interesting entries include Marco Botti's Gitano Hernando, off the track since finishing sixth in the Dubai World Cup, and Gordon Elliott's Ebor winner Dirar |
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brigust1 Joined: 07 Dec 01
Replies: 599 25 Aug 10 07:06 The 'basis' you are asking about is this: 1) Went into winter quarters as potentially a superstar. 2) Ran 3 times unbeaten as 2 y old including a Group 1. 3) Was hot favourite for possibly the best 2000 Guineas for a decade and not beaten far. was it[smiley:crazy] |
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Was it what? Hot favourite? Possibly the best 2000 Guineas for a decade? or Not beaten far?
The last 10 2000 gns winners were: Golan Rock of Gibraltar Refuse to Bend Haafhd Footstepsinthesand George Washington Cockney Rebel Henrythenavigator Sea the Stars Makfi Of these only Rock of Gibraltar, George Washington, Henrithenavigator and Makfi could claim to have won the best Guineas of the last decade and Makfi's race is still running. |