SNA- Arc

You are being serious ?

wht u think will win then huh ???

On what basis would you be backing SNA?

Um saying if it turns up doesn't look a good race therefore wont hav much to beat

More chance of me getting laid 30 times in a week than SNA even turning up for the Arc..Even if it runs it has no chance imo

wont hav much to beat

other than the 2 dozen or so better horses in Europe

Be interesting to see where they start him off again

obrien said it wont even be starting for 4 or 5 weeks yet which would rule it out the arc.mind you he said it was a defo for the derby.

:o

where are these better horses then must not know n e thing bout racing if you say he has no chance

Would be one of the all-time great training performances to get this to win an Arc, and it aint happening.

SNA hasn't even contested at over a mile yet in his life and you'd consider backing him against Europe's best in the Arc?

Again, on what basis do you think he could beat these?

The 'basis' you are asking about is this:

1) Went into winter quarters as potentially a superstar.

2) Ran 3 times unbeaten as 2 y old including a Group 1.

3) Was hot favourite for possibly the best 2000 Guineas for a decade and not beaten far.

4) Stable companions he was rated higher than have won the Irish Derby and been placed in the English Derby and King George among others. Even his Guineas form ties in closely with the best the French have to offer.

5) Rated 124 with current favourite rated 128.

6) Will not be over the top.

7) Opposition this year looks particularly weak with 2nd fav. Behkabad finishing only a neck in front of Viscount Nelson (AOB) in the Prix du Jockey Club.

8) Definitely has that touch of class.

Here are a few reasons why it would not be a complete surprise if St Nicholas Abbey won the Arc. There is no doubt however that time is running out but in the past he has shown he is not a horse difficult to get fit.

Good luck.

9. so youve just discarded everything aiden obrien has said about him.

10. Crowded House

The question I answered was 'on what basis do you think he can beat these?' with reference to the finest Europe has to offer in this year's Arc. Not that I thought he would run in it hence the Good Luck.
I find it difficult to read AOB most of the time. Now, apparently, Capo Blanco may run in the St Leger, who knows?

With reference to Crowded House, Graeme83, I think the trainer f u c k e d up. The best form this horse has is sitting out the back getting settled then finishing. But instead of dropping him in class or keeping him to Group 3 level, he is not a Group 1 horse ffs, he ran 2 good races in Group 3, they then ran him in a Group 1 ffs.
After he returned home and they then ran him in a Group 3 but this time they changed the successful tactics and had him up with up with the pace from a terrible draw. Wrong.
Notwithstanding this they then had a brainstorm and raised him in class and trip (12f)against Harbinger in a Group 2 and again had him bang up with the pace or disputing it. Oh dear.
Not learning from this they ran him at Newmarket again over 12f and again sitting in the first three but not settling (watch the race). Had they reverted to his best tactics, like the winner Sans Frontier, sitting out the back he may have got home.
And finally they sent him to the US over 9f and sitting out the back finished 3rd running on.
Ffs Meehan get the trip and tactics right. How many chances do you need.

Crowded House stayed in the US and will be trained there so watch out because given the right trip and tactics there is a good race or races in him.

If he is starting him off again in 4-5 weeks then I reckon that he will have him spot on for Chelters in March.............

Bigrust1 - my reference to Crowded House is my way of saying that winning a Racing Post doesn't make you a very good 3 y/o, let alone an Arc winner. If SNA was as good as they say he is, which he isn't, then he would be aimed and primed for the Arc. The fact of the matter he is complete and utter over hype who wasn't even good enough to run int he Derby. Given that they ran Midas Touch and Jan Vermeer, then it pretty much says it all. I wouldn't be suprised if SNA doesn't even make it to the track. Just look at Steinbeck.

Won't been seen until he starts covering mares next season.

Yes I know Graeme83. My point about Crowded House was that he is only really a Group 3 horse but has been messed about with. And shows how a trainer can completely mess up a good horse.
The St Nick point though I have to disagree with you.
His form, 2 lengths behind Dick Turpin in the Guineas(even when not right), puts him well ahead of Cape Blanco who is a better horse than Midas Touch and Jan Vermeer thus making him their (AOB's) best 3 year old.
How close Cape Blanco is to Workforce is debatable but puts him, St Nick, up there as potentially one of the best 3 year olds around.
I also think he will run again, unless sold to race abroad, because breeding is not as profitable as it was that is why Rip Van Winkle and Fame and Glory remained in training. St Nick has definitely not done enough to go to stud imo.

It is possible, the classic generation of middle distance colts and fillys are terrible.

Your right[;)] Neill

Ludicrous. What was wrong with him in the Guineas? He was hyped to the absolute max by everyone, sent off evens for the Guineas based on 2yo form only. How you can even attempt to use his 2yo form as a reasonable basis for the likelyhood of him winning the Arc is beyond me. SNA hasn't even run beyond a mile yet. Just because breeding says 1m4f is going to suit, doesn't mean it will. His rating of 124 is also irrelevant. Never raced further than a mile I'd like to point out again.

You say he wasn't beaten far in the Guineas? Neither were Red Jazz, Fencing Master, Elusive Pimpernell (who reversed 2yo form) and Xtension. Red Jazz and Fencing Master haven't won a race since, including FM going off 1/3 favourite. Elusive Pimpernell hasn't raced since. Xtension didn't improve upon that and has now been sold abroad. Only Buzzword and the top three have done anything of note so far.

My question was 'on what basis would you be backing SNA?' and it still hasn't been answered. He has no form whatsoever to say he'll win an Arc, we've yet to see him over 12f or even beyond a mile and just before Derby day O'Brien said he'd lost his 'sparkle on the gallops'.

So what in this world, other than his 2yo HYPE, would make you even consider him for the Arc?

How does his Guineas form put him above Cape Blanco by the way? I'm guessing it's because you believe SNA to be so superior over 1m4f, despite him racing over it yet?

He won't race again i can promise you

Oh dear Wicketd I will refrain from going through the whole formbook with you but will precise the important points just for you.
To start with 'hype' is where a horse is perported to have shown a greater ability 'off' the track than it has 'on' the track.
To counter this I will say that in the Guineas Elusive Pimpernel was beaten 3 1/4 lengths by the winner whereas in the Racing Post Trophy he was beaten 3 3/4 lengths by SNA. That is 'fact' not 'hype'.
On that piece of form alone SNA had every right, if fully fit, to be fighting out the finish in the Guineas. Even allowing for the fact that Elusive Pimpernel 'was' fully fit that day and had already won this season.
The comparison with Cape Blanco is through the French horse Lope de Vega who beat Dick Turpin 1/2 length in the French Guineas (DT beat SNA 2 1/4 lengths in 2000 Guineas) then beat Cape Blanco 8 3/4 lengths in Prix du Jockey Club.
To deal with the other Guineas horses for you:
Xtension has run well in 4 Group 1s and a Group 2 and may be paying the price for some hard races.
Red Jazz won the Free handicap and was blinding fit for the Guineas.
Fencing Master looks a bit dodgy now and Elusive Pimpernel hasn't run since but won the Craven easily and was bang fit in the Guineas.
Early in the season AOB's horses were not running well and he may have asked too much of SNA when he wasn't prepared for it.
Even so he ran very well and I am looking forward to him returning to the track.

You think CB gave his true running in France? This is why your formlines are failing, and always will. It is absolutely HOPELESS to just say horse A beat horse B by 2 lengths, so horse B holds/can be expected to beat horse C by 4 lengths. It just makes no sense. Lope De Vega then went on to finish 8/8 in the Prix Jean Prat, behind Dick Turpin, Xtension and Hearts of Fire. You know that's not his true running, so wouldn't take it literally. Also, you're mixing formlines over different distances, which again is utterly ridiculous.

SNA was a very impressive 2yo, but there have been MANY impressive 2yo's over the years tha have failed to show the same as a 3yo. With STS around last year SNA's potential THREE YEAR OLD career was HYPED to the absolute max. That is fact.

coronation at epsom like yeats?

Brigust, with your interpretation of the formbook, you clearly have this game by the balls.
The only question I have is how you find time to post on here when surely counting your winnings takes up most of the day?

what utter nonsense brigust. Cape Blanco in the french derby ffs, if you're using that form how can you say Behkabads form is awful?

Wickedt tell me what formline shows that SNA was 'hyped' more than his 'form' has shown.
And yes I do follow form lines generally because that is all we have otherwise all there is is 'hype'.
AOB had always thought that SNA was his best 3 year old and I have no reason as yet to believe otherwise.
You are clutching at straws with Lope de Vega's Jean Prat run because he was clearly not right that day and finished last. You will have noticed I did not use this line of form.
Also if you take a line through Lope de Vega, Planteur, Rewilding, Jan Vermeer and Cape Blanco you will get a similar result.
Of course some of the distances get mixed up because this is not a perfect world, you have to take that into consideration otherwise all you have left is hype.
Finally are you saying Cape Blanco is AOB's best 3 year old?

All I said is that it is possible TisWal, He's obviously a good horse and it's going to be an ordinary renewal, Sole Power won the Nunthorpe.

If o'Brien said St Nick was going to run and threw in a few positive work reports the price would tumble.

So you're willing to concede that LDV wasn't right on that day, but are happy to use Cape Blanco formlines when he wasn't right in the French Derby? Do me a favour. Distances should never get mixed up when comparing horses through formlines. Can't believe I'm having to actually say that.

SNA's RP Trophy win finished off a very good 2yo career, BUT, it was that win that got people carried away, and ultimately hype this horse up to the max. Some on this forum were hyping it up to win the Guineas/Derby/Arc ffs! STS' perfect season left people looking for a horse to take over.

Desmond I hope you are not gambling today on these cards. Fifteen low grade handicaps and 3 maidens. I'm definitely not risking money today, thanks.

Bellamy did I say Behkabad's form was awful? I don't think so. But lets face it if he wins the Arc it will not be among the best Arc's ever run, will it.

Wicketd     25 Aug 10 17:17 


SNA's RP Trophy win finished off a very good 2yo career, BUT, it was that win that got people carried away, and ultimately hype this horse up to the max. Some on this forum were hyping it up to win the Guineas/Derby/Arc ffs! STS' perfect season left people looking for a horse to take over.

That is a matter of opinion!All I can tell you is that if you had seen SNA working you too would of been of the firm opinion that he was indeed a great horse,for what its worth I think he was hard trained for NMKT and by the time of the GNS he had had enough,certain horses don't last forever,if he can come back to his best then write him off at your peril as he will take a very good one to get past!

I don't dispute that he is a very good horse, and COULD be a very good 3yo. I just think that the hype thrown onto his potential 3yo career was ridiculous, and happened because of what STS achieved.

no chance of winning the Arc - probably won't even run

Can't see him running in the Arc myself,could see him back at HQ for the champion stakes AFTER a small race here in Ireland,Cape Blanco going to Doncaster.

brigust you brought up his french derby form as an example of the weakness of the race, behkabad may have only beaten viscount nelso a neck in the french derby having a bad ride but he has improved since in winning the grand prix de paris & has been trained for this race, he will need to improve again but thats a hell of a lot more likely than st nicholas abbey improving enough to take this.

Bellamy I brought the French Derby form up but never said Behkabar was awful but it would take another step forward for him to be top class, imo. He is definitely a case of the best available though if not the best possible.
I too cannot see SNA running in the Arc but I will not be laying him anytime soon.
Thank goodness the 3 year old milers look top class this season because the longer distance runners do look a bit limited, I think you will agree?

Behkabad looks like a well exposed plodder to me. If it's won this year by a 3 year old colt it'll be a relatively unknown improving type who runs the race of its life and Arc day then disappears without a trace.

*on Arc day

more chance of a comet wiping out all life on earth than st nicholas abbey winning the arc.

the shortness in the betting suggests hes going to turn up. idegive him a big chance wouldnt suprise me 1 buit if he won it

Wow, that short MP?
You obviously don't think he will follow in the footsteps of his sire, Montjeu, and run in the Prix Niel on September 12th then on to the Arc?

I wouldn't lay him, noone kmows what is going on with him, I hardly feel qualified to have an oppinion

SNA among the Prix Niel entries on 12th Sept. Next declaration stage 9th Sept. Would definitely be interesting.

The gullible being reeled in again. He has an entry so they can say that's how much they think of him but he isn't quite ready yet. If he wins the Arc John McRirick will win 100m olympic gold.

Please don't call me gullible Graeme. Personally I don't think he will run in either the Niel or the Arc but I won't be laying him anytime soon. If you read what I said I said it would be interesting. And even you have to agree that 'if' he ran it would be 'interesting'. So chill out ffs.

It's our duty as forumites, punters and viewers to stop giving their horses more attention than other peoples. It only adds to the hype and gives lazy journos the ammo to write about them all the time. Why don't we make threads about other trainers whos horse won't run....let's make a thread about John Oxx sending Arazan.

No Graeme. It gives those 'in the know' an opportunity to step up to the plate and let us know what is going on. That is what I am looking for. Anyway the Niel is for 3 year olds and Arazan (4) is more 'hype' than SNA because he hasn't won anything of note, he is just reputation.

"Arazan (4) is more 'hype' than SNA because he hasn't won anything of note"




That's a load of mince. How can their be more hype surrounding an injured horse than SNA, who is one of the most over hyped horses of all time. What has SNA done apart from win a race that Crowded House won a year before ?

good to see everyone's opinions :)

Is that the same race won by Derby winners Authorized, Motivator and High Chaparral? He has won a Group 1 unlike Arazan. He has finished 6th in the 2000 Guineas unlike Arazan. He was unbeaten as a 2 year old unlike Arazan. He is ready to return to the track unlike Arazan. Is that enough for you?

Same race won more recently by Crowded House and Ibn Khaldun. It is known that SNA was getting done on the gallops by Midas Touch. Now they have either sprinkled magic dust on him, or he just isn't anywhere near as good as the hype suggested ?...it was the same as Rainbow View and it will be the same as other horses. It's no big deal but you need to take the blinkers off. The horses O'Brien trains have 4 legs like everyone elses.

that when the problem wid SNA was highlighted as previously was murdering all on the gallops it may have been a mixture of Midas Touch improving has shown good from this year and SNA being below form that why he has been off. Basically due to hype his guineas run was deemed below par but look what all the horses around him has done since. The point of this thread was to highlight that if were to run in a poor looking arc 50s on here a few weeks back would look good on the day ;)

Ok let's look at Fencing Master, Red Jazz and Al Zir.

Calm  down Graeme, you do make me chuckle.
AOB elected SNA as his best 3 year old this year. Nothing that has happened so far has disproved that fact. In fact there is still every possibilty he may be proved right. Of course there is also the possibilty that SNA may not be as good as they or we first thought. Don't forget Ryan Moore chose Workforce instead of Harbinger. And I am sure MS was fully behind him. Things happen and, unlike you, we do not have the benefit of hindsight. If, as you say, SNA was over hyped then that would provide you with a great opportunity to make some dough so instead of moaning just cash in.
However where I totally and absolutely disagree with you is when you say the horse was over hyped. He was not.
He was, hopefully, the champion we all look forward to every year through the winter months and the beginning of a new flat season, the classics. No-one knew what the future held but he was unbeaten in three races. He had won possibly the best Group 1 of the year impressively. His trainer stated he was the best he had in training and his list of good 2 year olds was long. That is not hype. That is fact. Whether you believe that or not is your problem. The trainer, the jockey, the press, the formbook and everyone else who follow him may have been wrong but they are facts, like it or not.

Give over Rust. I have believed the hype with regards to o'briens horses because it has worked out more often than not in the past few years. However this season it's abundantly obvious his 3 y/o are not up to the standard you'd expect. SNA may be his best 3y/o, but that doesn't mean a great deal considering he's vying with Jan Vermeer, Cape Blanco and Steinbeck. The Racing Post trophy you enthusiastically refer to on a regular basis was run on gd/sft, and the top 5 included Morana and Dancing david. These are facts.

Graeme, Graeme, Graeme. You must start trying to make your case without the benefit of hindsight. That is the position I am, and have always been working from.
At the time of the Guineas the winner of the RP Trophy (SNA) hadn't run but the 2nd and 4th had run, in the Craven, and run impressively. Supporting the so called 'hype' surrounding SNA. Al Zir, had been unbeaten prior to his 3rd in the RP trophy, and the word from Godolphin, at the time and supported by FD riding him in the Guineas, that he was their best 3 year old. Everything surrounding SNA and even the subsequent success of the first three in the 2000 Guineas show that AOB had every right to think he was thier best horse.
This is definitely and absolutely not hype. Subsequent results may mean they, and I, were wrong but that is only with the benefit of hindsight. A precious commodity available only to a select few.

There's nothing wrong with hindsight when a horse does nothing at 3 and is hyped after beating Dancing david and Morana at 2 on gd/sft.

entered up in dundalk for breeders cup prep

He could be anything, that's why I'sd haste to lay him, what if he brings his early homework to the track?

Maybe they are moving the Arc to Dundalk this year. I'm sure Rusti will be along to explore the possibility.

Graeme, Graeme, Graeme. Please read the thread. I did say I didn't expect SNA to run in the Niel or the Arc. Only that it would be interesting if he did.
You must agree it would be interesting if he did, surely?
And of course you did say you wouldn't be surprised if SNA never ran again. Let's not forget that, shall we.

A few things here.

Graeme - SNA was not getting tonked on the gallops by MT, this is fact - not silly speculation or rumour.

When judging horses i find it more profitable to judge a horse on ability and form rather that it happened to win a certain 2 year old mile race that i simply have never liked. The fact it ran in the racing post, which seems to be your whole anchor of your argument is not only silly but illogical.

Btw im a celtic man and am not after an argument.

Cheers.

What has come out of the RP ?

Same as the Dewhurst...........SFA!

Shakespeare

'There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealing is done!'

Brigust must have the patience of a saint for this argument.
I'm betting graeme was on the Rip Van Winkle is all hype bandwagon last year too after the Dewhurst/Guineas/Derby.

But the trouble is they hardly ever go off at really fancy prices because of the hype, even in you followed RVW through the losing times you cant have made much of a profit unless you like Martin Gayle

Then you ARE going to go skint following the wrong one

Aidan O'Brien's highly-touted St Nicholas Abbey is a fascinating possible contender for the Diamond Stakes at Dundalk on October 1.

The Montjeu colt has been off the track since losing his unbeaten record when sixth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in May, but features among 32 entries for this 10-furlong contest - part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge 'Win And You're In' Series.

Ralph Beckett's Muhannak won the inaugural running in 2008 and went on to land the Breeders' Cup Marathon at Santa Anita, while O'Brien's Mastercraftsman was victorious last year and signed off his career with a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

As well as St Nicholas Abbey, the Ballydoyle handler has left in the classy Steinbeck and Beethoven.

Other interesting entries include Marco Botti's Gitano Hernando, off the track since finishing sixth in the Dubai World Cup, and Gordon Elliott's Ebor winner Dirar

brigust1 Joined: 07 Dec 01
Replies: 599 25 Aug 10 07:06 
The 'basis' you are asking about is this:

1) Went into winter quarters as potentially a superstar.

2) Ran 3 times unbeaten as 2 y old including a Group 1.

3) Was hot favourite for possibly the best 2000 Guineas for a decade and not beaten far.

was it[smiley:crazy]

Was it what? Hot favourite? Possibly the best 2000 Guineas for a decade? or Not beaten far?

The last 10 2000 gns winners were:
Golan
Rock of Gibraltar
Refuse to Bend
Haafhd
Footstepsinthesand
George Washington
Cockney Rebel
Henrythenavigator
Sea the Stars
Makfi

Of these only Rock of Gibraltar, George Washington, Henrithenavigator and Makfi could claim to have won the best Guineas of the last decade and Makfi's race is still running.

best guineas of decade? i mean canford the 1st 3 are good milers!canford outstanding!really poor 3 yrs olds this yr imo!awful!

There are times when a thread reaches a low from which it cannot be rescued. I think this thread has just reached that point.

agreed!!just look at the derby!poor!

its had a good run lol

brigust1 Joined: 07 Dec 01
Replies: 609 27 Aug 10 13:05   


Calm  down Graeme, you do make me chuckle.
AOB elected SNA as his best 3 year old this year. Nothing that has happened so far has disproved that fact. 

cant agree with that im afraid. has done nothing on the track this year to uphold that theory.

Well we shall see MP. One run finishing 6th in the Guineas at Evens favourite may not be as bad as you think. Why don't we wait until the season has ended and then we will see. I'm happy to give him the benefit of any doubt considering AOB's other 3 year olds, although good, do not look brilliant or look like being brilliant. There is still time and mileage for SNA to reach the top.

Hopefully Crowded House will finally get an opportunity to show his full potential. A good 2nd in a warm Grade 1 yesterday at Del Mar.

Of St Nicholas Abbey, O'Brien said "We had it in the back of our minds to go to Longchamp for the Prix Niel this weekend but he probably won't be ready to go there, so the likelhood is that we will take him away for a racecourse gallop in the next week or so instead. We'll see how he gets on and then decide what to do."

Oh dear. Not looking good is it? Although saying 'PROBABLY won't be ready to go there' this weekend, is a major plus, if we are only talking about days, not weeks. Let's hope.