Lord Grimthorpe on ATR, "Helleborine unlikely to run in 1000, Madame Marek-Head thinks she needs more time". Didn't totally rule her out but would be a big surprise if they change their mind.

tbh DD, when I got the email from Teddy G, 4 days after the trial, and he was still saying the same things, I took the opinion he must have had an update in that time and therefore it does not bode well. That was the point the I backed MC.

Connections of Laughing Lashes are very confident, apparently she has grown out of all recognition. Robbie Power very sweet on her and for the record he was very sweet on his two rides at Cheltenham (Oscars Well & Bostons Angel) so he is not one for talking gibberish.

Connections of Laughing Lashes are expecting a big run in the Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday week with the benefit of a winter on her back.

The Jessica Harrington-trained filly was not out of the first two in four starts last season, rounding off her campaign with a close second in the Group One Moyglare Stud Stakes to old rival Misty For Me.

The grey had previously beaten Misty For Me in the Debutante Stakes, and is reported to have made real progress from two to three.

Harrington said: "She's a very big filly, and even makes (2000 Guineas contender) Pathfork look small. It was surprising she did so well last year.

"She seems in great form and is working very well. I think she will continue to progress as the year goes on."

And while she is the mount of Fran Berry, Harrington's main jumps jockey Robbie Power is very sweet on her chance.

Power said: "Pathfork gets most of the limelight in the yard, but this filly is the one I'm really looking forward to seeing at Newmarket.

"I've never seen a filly develop as much as she has."

Helleborine has never looked a Guineas winner but would give Laughing Lashes a chance even though Graeme83 has her the pin had to land on something.

Moonlight Cloud still the one to beat.

Wondered if JamesP still sees people holding 14s Memory (first post on this thread) currently generally 8s(9 in places) as having poor value now? Maybe going straight there for one of Hannon's could be deemred a negative but perhaps she will have gained enough experience last season and goes well fresh?


jamesp
Date Joined: 05 Jan 02
24 Jun 10 11:17


Based on past seasons, Memory is poor value at 14/1 for the Guineas and does not appeal even at 20/1.  She's yet another example of the way in which bookmakers are squeezing all the value out of the antepost markets.

There are plenty of lightly raced maiden winners (and once-raced maidens) with untapped potential such as Zabeel Park, Seeharn, Gemstone, Googlette, Wild Wind, Kissable, Together, Looking Lovely, Rimth.  More will appear in the coming weeks.  But nothing has really impressed me so far.

Hoping Bonilla will keep the ride dont see why not he rode her beautifully in the Imprudence.

Extremely importantly he has a feel for her this season and how much she had in reserve when winning the Imprudence very comfortably going away, crucial knowledge on energy reserves if he is going to have her up there, perhaps even setting the pace.

eric_morris
Date Joined: 27 Jun 10

About time you stopped copying and pasting old posts, Mr Morris, because there are plenty that make you look silly, too.







Add contact | Send message When: 11 Sep 10 15:10 Joined: Date Joined: 27 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 2,790 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
To be fair the 2 races cannot be related at all on different days other than based on your wrist-watch over a distance of your choosing. Think HRAC will do what is best for the horses future whatever happens you can be sure of that. Saamidd will win the Dewhurst based on that performance I will be having a good bet on him unless Strong Suit runs also.

Davy Bonilla has only ridden one winner in the UK in the last five years (Marchand D'Or in the July Cup in 2008), but then again he has only had nine rides in that time.  If the horse is good enough he is good enough to steer it.  He may come in for a few spare rides at the Guineas meeting.

Going back to Memory last June, I thought she was terrible value at 14/1 at that time, based on her win in the Albany Stakes.  Following her Cherry Hinton victory she was around 5/1, which was also terrible value at that time.  After she drifted back out to around 12/1 after the Moyglare I stated on here that she was starting to look tempting at those odds (if there were genuine excuses for her at the Curragh).  Her current odds are probably about right, but if I were looking for a bet on the Guineas now (without a pre-existing portfolio of bets) I would be worried about that performance in the Moyglare.  Fillies simply don't get beaten that far in their final juvenile race and go on to win the Guineas.  Trends are there to be broken, of course, but for me it was a big negative that Memory missed the Cheveley Park Stakes last season.  It's sheer guesswork, in view of the fact that she's heading straight for the Guineas without a prep race, whether she's back to the form she showed last summer.

In the expected absence of Helleborine, the ones to focus on are obviously (in no particular order) White Moonstone, Hooray, Memory, Havant, Moonlight Cloud, Misty For Me, Laughing Lashes, I Love Me.  Memory, as already noted, has been off the track a long time and was well beaten by both Misty For Me and Laughing Lashes in the Moyglare.  There has been no definite news concerning Misty For Me's participation (she's currently a massive 17/1 on here) and there must be a slight worry that she won't be fully wound up for the Guineas first time out, but she has rock-solid form (including two Group 1 wins) and wouldn't need to improve much on her two-year-old form to win the Guineas.  Laughing Lashes was only a length behind her in the Moyglare and has done particularly well from two to three, but I suspect she may prove best with a bit of juice in the ground.  The Oh So Sharp Stakes is not normally a terribly good guide to the Guineas and for that reason alone I tend to side against soft-ground winner Havant, whose stablemate Cape Dollar ran a lifeless race on Saturday in the Fred Darling.  Moonlight Cloud was impressive in her prep race, when everything fell neatly into her lap, but the Guineas will be an altogether different test.  She is very highly regarded and may well prove capable of finding the necessary improvement on her bare form.  White Moonstone showed plenty of pace and excellent acceleration last year, but she was less than impressive on her final start in the Fillies' Mile where she was nursed home by Frankie Dettori in the yielding ground.  I Love Me's Rockfel form took a knock on Saturday in the Fred Darling, where the two fillies that finished ahead of her last autumn failed to land a blow.  I'm not convinced that she's good enough on what we've seen so far, but she could be open to improvement on faster ground.  Hooray brings the best form to the race and if she stays the mile she should win, as she doesn't need to improve on her Cheveley Park Stakes form.

In conclusion, I think that Hooray will win the Guineas if she stays the trip.  If Hooray doesn't get the mile, the fillies with the best credentials are White Moonstone, Misty For Me and Laughing Lashes.  If I had to pick just one it would probably be White Moonstone, not least because she seems to have been more or less written off (without good reason) by some observers.

The race is definitely a real puzzle and I wouldn't be surprised if we had a shock winner, but I Still think Moonlight Cloud will be 3/1 or less on the day so 6/1 still good value from a purely punting point of view.

Agree JamesP re the book/risk unless you are absolutely sure about one and connections running them, however you must have a view on Hooray will stay or not? You can say that for many in the Guineas it is an important part of picking the most likely winner. You could equally say Havant will win if she runs fast enough but it isnt really giving an opinion.

I think Moonlight Cloud will be 7/2 or 4/1 on the day. They will show the replay and money will come for her. The others not having a run will be in a glut behind her in the betting then it is probably down to rumours of recent gallops/well-being/stable money nearer the time.

really sad that nearly all in the top 10 in the betting havent run in a trial, oh for the sonic lady, salsabil,shadayid,f footsteps,era

JamesP I think Frankel will stay the Derby trip for example and it affects my strategy on the Derby, get the feeling you are still sitting on the fence with Hooray, if she loses you can say she probably didn't stay howeever I fully understand re your book which many others on here dont have an appreciation of.

In fact, pretty sure Dettori has already said WM was over the top in the fillies mile. Makes the run all the better imo.

Thought Hooray looked the interesting one considering her rating and form lines via Rimth. The worrying thing for me would be that at the moment you have no idea whether she will be entered or not. I haven't seen anything from the SMP since the 29th March, they must know by now if she is a live contender or not.

I think she will run SMP has done the play down routine before. Nobody committing to whether she will stay or not. Dont think a 3 yo trial is just a sign of well-being they are much more than that, they determine how horses have improved or stayed still, sometimes regressed from 2 to 3 yo. Horses will generally have to improve on their 2 yo showings to win a Guineas.

Maybe the trainer/owner/jockey combination of Moonlight Cloud will hold her price up - most punters won't recognise them. If it was a Criquette Head, Abdullah horse I think 3/1 would be right. Natagora was about 6/1 a week before the race and went off 11/4.

A lot will depend on the vibes on the other main contenders. Havant won't get her ground (could she even be a n/r?), White Moonstone has the Godolphin factor, Prescott is hardly shouting Hooray's chances from the rooftops, Misty For Me is looking an unlikely runner judging by the prices, Memory has a 6 next to her name etc,etc. Only Laughing Lashes seesm to have any postive vibes - though I think her price will depend massively on how Pathfork runs the day before.

i do like m cloud,and if hooray looks like running she will be my second bet,following the franking of cheveley park form in fred darling.

Hooray looked a lot better when she was allowed to bowl along in front. Her duel for the pace with MC (similar stamina question marks) could be the downfall of both of them.

Yes fairpoint Unc.