Horse Antepost
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The runners declared with age.
1 Allterrain 7
2 Auroras Encore 8
3 Ballycarney 6
4 Brooklyn Brownie
5 Chorizo 9
6 Classic Frontier 8
7 Clifton Debut 7
8 Cold Mountain 8
9 Cullahill 8
10 Dennis The Legend 9
11 De Soto 9
12 Ginolad 10
13 Hemington 7
14 Keepitsecret 9
15 Knowhere 12
16 Larry Luso 8
17 Leac An Scail 9
18 Lothian Falcon 11
19 Lyes Green 9
20 Martha’s Kinsman 11
21 Midnight Gold 10
22 Minella Four Star 7
23 Mr Ed 12
24 Mumbles Head 9
25 No Panic 7
26 North Island 8
27 Ouzbeck 8
28 Petite Margot 11
29 Quattrocento 6
30 Rock Diplomat 10
31 Sea Wall 8
32 Seize 8
33 Seymar Lad 10
34 Shammy Buskins 8
35 Sheriff Hutton 7
36 Skipper’s Lad 8
37 Take The Stand 14
38 Templer 9
39 That’s Rhythm 10
40 The Ferbane Man 6
41 The Whisperer 9
42 Tisfreetdream 9
43 Valley Ride 10
44 Victor Daly 9
45 Western Gale 7
46 Winchester Road 8
1 Allterrain 7
2 Auroras Encore 8
3 Ballycarney 6
4 Brooklyn Brownie
5 Chorizo 9
6 Classic Frontier 8
7 Clifton Debut 7
8 Cold Mountain 8
9 Cullahill 8
10 Dennis The Legend 9
11 De Soto 9
12 Ginolad 10
13 Hemington 7
14 Keepitsecret 9
15 Knowhere 12
16 Larry Luso 8
17 Leac An Scail 9
18 Lothian Falcon 11
19 Lyes Green 9
20 Martha’s Kinsman 11
21 Midnight Gold 10
22 Minella Four Star 7
23 Mr Ed 12
24 Mumbles Head 9
25 No Panic 7
26 North Island 8
27 Ouzbeck 8
28 Petite Margot 11
29 Quattrocento 6
30 Rock Diplomat 10
31 Sea Wall 8
32 Seize 8
33 Seymar Lad 10
34 Shammy Buskins 8
35 Sheriff Hutton 7
36 Skipper’s Lad 8
37 Take The Stand 14
38 Templer 9
39 That’s Rhythm 10
40 The Ferbane Man 6
41 The Whisperer 9
42 Tisfreetdream 9
43 Valley Ride 10
44 Victor Daly 9
45 Western Gale 7
46 Winchester Road 8
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I think number 3 on the list could be interesting off logically a low weight.
Lothian Falcon interesting.
Physio has sorted out his problems. Fit as a flea now.
Will love the trip and ground and should be a big price based on latest dud runs.
Physio has sorted out his problems. Fit as a flea now.
Will love the trip and ground and should be a big price based on latest dud runs.
Sir Epicure,this horse had some serious form a couple of years ago.
You would of thought that Betfair would have a market up for this by now.
The final declarations are made today for this.Betfair should have a market up by the late afternoon.
Be having a look at this tomorrow, but agree regarding former Gold Cup runner up Take The Stand, he's earned his retirement.
The markets up on Betfair,if you can call it a market at the moment.
Race run at Stratford in 2001 and distance changed from 4M 1/2F to 3M 4F last year.
Trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-3
6yo: 2-0-7
7yo: 3-2-21
8yo: 2-5-26
9yo: 1-3-29
10yo: 1-8-29
11yo+: 0-6-29
Horses aged 5 to 8: 8-7-57
Horses aged 9 or older: 2-17-87
Younger horses clearly hold the call with 5 to 8 year olds winning 8 of the last 10 from less than 40% of the total runners.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-15-76
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 3-9-68
Horses carrying higher weights have held the call in this lately with 7 of the last 8 winners carrying 10-9 or more
Record of top Weight: 1-0-11 (5P5P16U5BPP)
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 1-1-20
Official Ratings
Horses rated 134 or higher: 1-0-16
Horses rated 120 to 133: 6-16-70
Horses rated 119 or lower: 3-8-58
6 of 10 winners (last 4) were officially rated 120 to 133. Also 16 of 18 places in the past 5 years were filled by horses rated 120 to 133.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last NH start
8 of 10 winners won on 1 of their last 2 NH starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
7 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 handicap chases
5 of 10 winners had run in 6 or less times over fences
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions had won over 2M5F/6F)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher
4 of 10 winners were course winners (5 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on 2 of 3 runs here)
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 chase or hurdle last time out
6 of 10 winners ran at Stratford, Newton Abbot or Uttoxeter last time out
Trainers
Peter Bowen (2-1-14) has trained the winner twice in the past decade (2004 & 2006).
Emma Lavelle (1-0-1) has only saddled one runner in the race before and that was the winner, Fire And Rain, last season.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-8) and Sue Smith (0-2-8) have each filled a couple of places from their 8 runners.
Irish-trained runners (0-2-6) have managed to fill 2 places from 6 representatives.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 10/1
Rheindross’ win at 25/1 in 2005 has been the only big shock in this race in the past decade, the majority of the winners came from the first 5 or 6 in the market.
Favourite (1-3-14) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 6.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 5 to 8
• Carrying 10-9 or more
• Officially rated 120 to 133
• Had last run in a class 3 chase in the past 55 days
• Finished in the first 4 last time out
• Won 1 of last 2 starts
• Run in 8 or less handicap chases
• Won over 3 miles or further
• Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher
• Course winner or having first course start
• Trained by Peter Bowen or Emma Lavelle
• Priced 5/1 to 10/1
Trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-3
6yo: 2-0-7
7yo: 3-2-21
8yo: 2-5-26
9yo: 1-3-29
10yo: 1-8-29
11yo+: 0-6-29
Horses aged 5 to 8: 8-7-57
Horses aged 9 or older: 2-17-87
Younger horses clearly hold the call with 5 to 8 year olds winning 8 of the last 10 from less than 40% of the total runners.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-15-76
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 3-9-68
Horses carrying higher weights have held the call in this lately with 7 of the last 8 winners carrying 10-9 or more
Record of top Weight: 1-0-11 (5P5P16U5BPP)
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 1-1-20
Official Ratings
Horses rated 134 or higher: 1-0-16
Horses rated 120 to 133: 6-16-70
Horses rated 119 or lower: 3-8-58
6 of 10 winners (last 4) were officially rated 120 to 133. Also 16 of 18 places in the past 5 years were filled by horses rated 120 to 133.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last NH start
8 of 10 winners won on 1 of their last 2 NH starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days
7 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 handicap chases
5 of 10 winners had run in 6 or less times over fences
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions had won over 2M5F/6F)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher
4 of 10 winners were course winners (5 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on 2 of 3 runs here)
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 chase or hurdle last time out
6 of 10 winners ran at Stratford, Newton Abbot or Uttoxeter last time out
Trainers
Peter Bowen (2-1-14) has trained the winner twice in the past decade (2004 & 2006).
Emma Lavelle (1-0-1) has only saddled one runner in the race before and that was the winner, Fire And Rain, last season.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-8) and Sue Smith (0-2-8) have each filled a couple of places from their 8 runners.
Irish-trained runners (0-2-6) have managed to fill 2 places from 6 representatives.
Price
8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 10/1
Rheindross’ win at 25/1 in 2005 has been the only big shock in this race in the past decade, the majority of the winners came from the first 5 or 6 in the market.
Favourite (1-3-14) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 6.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 5 to 8
• Carrying 10-9 or more
• Officially rated 120 to 133
• Had last run in a class 3 chase in the past 55 days
• Finished in the first 4 last time out
• Won 1 of last 2 starts
• Run in 8 or less handicap chases
• Won over 3 miles or further
• Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher
• Course winner or having first course start
• Trained by Peter Bowen or Emma Lavelle
• Priced 5/1 to 10/1
Shortlist is -
Minella Four Star
That's Rhythm
Victor Daly
Classic Frontier
I am not going to break the winning habit and I am going to back MINELLA FOUR STAR here. Has been schooled at DEP's from what little I know and I think they quite like this one off near enough bottom weight. Can make use of limitless stamina and getting weight all round. You seen what they can do with Junior, I think they'll do the same with this one which also came from Alan's yard.
You ?
Minella Four Star
That's Rhythm
Victor Daly
Classic Frontier
I am not going to break the winning habit and I am going to back MINELLA FOUR STAR here. Has been schooled at DEP's from what little I know and I think they quite like this one off near enough bottom weight. Can make use of limitless stamina and getting weight all round. You seen what they can do with Junior, I think they'll do the same with this one which also came from Alan's yard.
You ?
Knowhere always runs very well fresh. Come down a bit in the handicap and stays well. Will take all the beating. 20/1 [:p]
7 time winner
2 wins each year, 07,08 ,09
All in May- Aug
All Good,Good/Firm
Only start this year - a win (May)
Course winner
Trainer in red hot form
Ridden by the greatest jockey
KEEPITSECRET - current 11/1 BOG has to be value.
2 wins each year, 07,08 ,09
All in May- Aug
All Good,Good/Firm
Only start this year - a win (May)
Course winner
Trainer in red hot form
Ridden by the greatest jockey
KEEPITSECRET - current 11/1 BOG has to be value.
Has to be Ouzbeck for me, Lavelle won this last year and Ouzbeck's record over fences below graded level is 111U11, unseated came at right handed track, other 5 wins came at left handed track. All his win on good or firmer
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