Horse Antepost
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The runners declared with age.
1 Allterrain 7
2 Auroras Encore 8
3 Ballycarney 6
4 Brooklyn Brownie
5 Chorizo 9
6 Classic Frontier 8
7 Clifton Debut 7
8 Cold Mountain 8
9 Cullahill 8
10 Dennis The Legend 9
11 De Soto 9
12 Ginolad 10
13 Hemington 7
14 Keepitsecret 9
15 Knowhere 12
16 Larry Luso 8
17 Leac An Scail 9
18 Lothian Falcon 11
19 Lyes Green 9
20 Martha’s Kinsman 11
21 Midnight Gold 10
22 Minella Four Star 7
23 Mr Ed 12
24 Mumbles Head 9
25 No Panic 7
26 North Island 8
27 Ouzbeck 8
28 Petite Margot 11
29 Quattrocento 6
30 Rock Diplomat 10
31 Sea Wall 8
32 Seize 8
33 Seymar Lad 10
34 Shammy Buskins 8
35 Sheriff Hutton 7
36 Skipper’s Lad 8
37 Take The Stand 14
38 Templer 9
39 That’s Rhythm 10
40 The Ferbane Man 6
41 The Whisperer 9
42 Tisfreetdream 9
43 Valley Ride 10
44 Victor Daly 9
45 Western Gale 7
46 Winchester Road 8
1 Allterrain 7
2 Auroras Encore 8
3 Ballycarney 6
4 Brooklyn Brownie
5 Chorizo 9
6 Classic Frontier 8
7 Clifton Debut 7
8 Cold Mountain 8
9 Cullahill 8
10 Dennis The Legend 9
11 De Soto 9
12 Ginolad 10
13 Hemington 7
14 Keepitsecret 9
15 Knowhere 12
16 Larry Luso 8
17 Leac An Scail 9
18 Lothian Falcon 11
19 Lyes Green 9
20 Martha’s Kinsman 11
21 Midnight Gold 10
22 Minella Four Star 7
23 Mr Ed 12
24 Mumbles Head 9
25 No Panic 7
26 North Island 8
27 Ouzbeck 8
28 Petite Margot 11
29 Quattrocento 6
30 Rock Diplomat 10
31 Sea Wall 8
32 Seize 8
33 Seymar Lad 10
34 Shammy Buskins 8
35 Sheriff Hutton 7
36 Skipper’s Lad 8
37 Take The Stand 14
38 Templer 9
39 That’s Rhythm 10
40 The Ferbane Man 6
41 The Whisperer 9
42 Tisfreetdream 9
43 Valley Ride 10
44 Victor Daly 9
45 Western Gale 7
46 Winchester Road 8
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Replies: 24
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Down to 18 runners tommorow.
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Take The Stand ? ffs Bowen give it a rest
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Yeah 14 seems a bit old.
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Who do people fancy for this one? Good To Firm 3m4f
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I think number 3 on the list could be interesting off logically a low weight.
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Lothian Falcon interesting.
Physio has sorted out his problems. Fit as a flea now. Will love the trip and ground and should be a big price based on latest dud runs. |
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Equimine,he ticks quite a few boxes with regards to form.
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Sir Epicure,this horse had some serious form a couple of years ago.
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Indeed ;-)
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You would of thought that Betfair would have a market up for this by now.
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The final declarations are made today for this.Betfair should have a market up by the late afternoon.
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Ballycarney is declared, gets in with 10st 1lb.
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Be having a look at this tomorrow, but agree regarding former Gold Cup runner up Take The Stand, he's earned his retirement.
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The markets up on Betfair,if you can call it a market at the moment.
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Race run at Stratford in 2001 and distance changed from 4M 1/2F to 3M 4F last year.
Trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 5yo: 1-0-3 6yo: 2-0-7 7yo: 3-2-21 8yo: 2-5-26 9yo: 1-3-29 10yo: 1-8-29 11yo+: 0-6-29 Horses aged 5 to 8: 8-7-57 Horses aged 9 or older: 2-17-87 Younger horses clearly hold the call with 5 to 8 year olds winning 8 of the last 10 from less than 40% of the total runners. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-15-76 Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 3-9-68 Horses carrying higher weights have held the call in this lately with 7 of the last 8 winners carrying 10-9 or more Record of top Weight: 1-0-11 (5P5P16U5BPP) Horses racing from out of the handicap: 1-1-20 Official Ratings Horses rated 134 or higher: 1-0-16 Horses rated 120 to 133: 6-16-70 Horses rated 119 or lower: 3-8-58 6 of 10 winners (last 4) were officially rated 120 to 133. Also 16 of 18 places in the past 5 years were filled by horses rated 120 to 133. Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last NH start 8 of 10 winners won on 1 of their last 2 NH starts 9 of 10 winners had run in the past 55 days 7 of 10 winners had run in no more than 8 handicap chases 5 of 10 winners had run in 6 or less times over fences 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (both exceptions had won over 2M5F/6F) 10 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher 4 of 10 winners were course winners (5 exceptions were having first course start and other was placed on 2 of 3 runs here) 9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 chase or hurdle last time out 6 of 10 winners ran at Stratford, Newton Abbot or Uttoxeter last time out Trainers Peter Bowen (2-1-14) has trained the winner twice in the past decade (2004 & 2006). Emma Lavelle (1-0-1) has only saddled one runner in the race before and that was the winner, Fire And Rain, last season. Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-8) and Sue Smith (0-2-8) have each filled a couple of places from their 8 runners. Irish-trained runners (0-2-6) have managed to fill 2 places from 6 representatives. Price 8 of 10 winners were priced between 5/1 and 10/1 Rheindross’ win at 25/1 in 2005 has been the only big shock in this race in the past decade, the majority of the winners came from the first 5 or 6 in the market. Favourite (1-3-14) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 6.00. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: • Aged 5 to 8 • Carrying 10-9 or more • Officially rated 120 to 133 • Had last run in a class 3 chase in the past 55 days • Finished in the first 4 last time out • Won 1 of last 2 starts • Run in 8 or less handicap chases • Won over 3 miles or further • Won a class 2 or 3 chase but no higher • Course winner or having first course start • Trained by Peter Bowen or Emma Lavelle • Priced 5/1 to 10/1 |
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Ouzbeck (res Aurora's Encore)
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Shortlist is -
Minella Four Star That's Rhythm Victor Daly Classic Frontier I am not going to break the winning habit and I am going to back MINELLA FOUR STAR here. Has been schooled at DEP's from what little I know and I think they quite like this one off near enough bottom weight. Can make use of limitless stamina and getting weight all round. You seen what they can do with Junior, I think they'll do the same with this one which also came from Alan's yard. You ? |
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templer/clifton debut.
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Knowhere always runs very well fresh. Come down a bit in the handicap and stays well. Will take all the beating. 20/1 [:p]
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7 time winner
2 wins each year, 07,08 ,09 All in May- Aug All Good,Good/Firm Only start this year - a win (May) Course winner Trainer in red hot form Ridden by the greatest jockey KEEPITSECRET - current 11/1 BOG has to be value. |
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Has to be Ouzbeck for me, Lavelle won this last year and Ouzbeck's record over fences below graded level is 111U11, unseated came at right handed track, other 5 wins came at left handed track. All his win on good or firmer
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Get in there!
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wd lumberg , great post
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well done Lum.
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