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platinni
09 May 10 13:40
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Date Joined: 15 Apr 04
| Topic/replies: 3,035 | Blogger: platinni's blog
MAIN EVENT: Duke of york steaks

First race is always a decent betting heat

Weather: dry till wednesday with some showers then.  Good ground at the moment so g, g/f looks likely sans hosepipe hopefully

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Replies: 222
By:
Deep Impact
When: 09 May 10 13:46
Course York
Next Race Wednesday 12th May
Report Date Sunday 9th May; 11:45
Going Good
GoingStick 7.9

Weather Forecast
Weather as at 11am 9 May: Breezy, cloudy and dry. Cool northerly breeze. Forecast: cool and cloudy with passing showers for Sunday night and Monday. Last rainfall: 0.5mm rain Thursday 6May.
Outlook for Tuesday and racing from Wednesday - cloudy, cool and largely dry with sunny intervals. Becoming warmer towards the end of the week.
By:
platinni
When: 09 May 10 13:48
speedy iyo Confused

was going to go out to leopardstown today but cba with the state of that card.  recession in full flow imo
By:
Horsesforcourses
When: 09 May 10 14:47
Value to me at the prices appears to be Inexile @ 12s (recall you were on lto plat ;) ). Still unexposed over the trip, versitile with regards the ground and has a prominent style of racing suited to this race.

Fav looks looks short enough as I think he'll find the trip short enough on this course with drying ground. Ignoring all 3yr olds. ? for me is Starspangledbanner who if on form could have this lot for breakfast despite the penalty.

Just not sure if a) he's running and b) what condition he'll be in given he's not been in Europe for that long...
By:
nibbledat
When: 09 May 10 14:49
agree with inxile
By:
platinni
When: 09 May 10 15:18
i was hfc and he's shortlisted

i agree with ignoring 3yo's

SSB will have the obrien fto syndrome to overcome

main aim is as false a fav as ive seen

but ive just had the guts of a 4pter on sayif :0
By:
nibbledat
When: 09 May 10 15:48
Shocked
By:
nashy
When: 09 May 10 16:34
Sick of these idiots running racing York should be tues to thurs ,good cards at Newmarket and Newbury on friday.
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 09 May 10 16:38
SSB is going to need a mile imo.
By:
Horsesforcourses
When: 09 May 10 16:39
Shocked

Ballsy plat. Was on my shortlist though.

Personally not concerned about the penalty he'll carry but I have a 'rule' about not backing the rides of R. Hills EXCEPT when on a front runner on a turning track - under those specific circumstanes he's just about ok imo! Appreciate he's already one on him but you can be sure if my money were down he'd lose!!

Other concern for me would be the track as on the face of it he needs a stiffish finish to be seen at is best. Just a thought and perhaps nitpicking. His is 14/1 after all rather than 5/2.
By:
platinni
When: 09 May 10 16:42
not sure about needing a stiff test

will be in the box getting a nice tow

dickie is decent enough up with the pace imo and he's choosen him over a couple of others

inxile i like but i think this fella could be different class?
By:
Me2
When: 09 May 10 17:03
EastLower Gooner Joined: 09 Mar 04
Replies: 1582 09 May 10 16:38 
SSB is going to need a mile imo.


Starspangledbanner came placed in the 6f Newmarket Handicap.

However, there is a view that it was a strange race with the impending storm, as with the herd mentality coming to the fore with approaching danger, all the geldings decided to run behind the stallions, and stay there! Confused
By:
downallstar
When: 09 May 10 17:12
Very risky betting AP at York w/o draw info imo. Plain
Why is Main Aim 5/2fav iyo? Confused

Like two in this.... Anglezarke and Society Rock.
I doubt Serious Attitude will turn up here? Would also be of interest if she did.
By:
gsus
When: 09 May 10 17:14
think gosden should let showcasing take his chance, not saying he would win, but must have a decent chance.
By:
EastLower Gooner
When: 09 May 10 17:49
I think SSB will run in and win the Queen Anne at Ascot.

Looked to me like he's been crying out for a step back up to a mile his last few spints. Made all to win the Guineas at Caulfield too. and that was a fluke..he properly poured it on that day.

just my thoughts on the horse...not to say he won win the duke of york though.
By:
platinni
When: 09 May 10 18:48
maybe das but just thought that was an outrageous price

the other reason i backed inxile lto and why im opposing this time is the ground, needs a bit of dig
By:
Benjy
When: 09 May 10 18:58
Mullonmileanhour looked like the one to beat imo. Nobody else seems to have given it a mention though?

O'Brien's a definite runner?
By:
mr phantom
When: 09 May 10 19:57
I think Sayif is excellent shout from plat for this, surely way overpriced with PP's @14/1
By:
nibbledat
When: 09 May 10 20:04
sayif needs it like a road doesnt he. cant see him getting it
By:
Horsesforcourses
When: 09 May 10 20:08
Two reasons why I don't fancy that one benjy:

1. Seemed to get outpaced lto before staying on - no dip/uphill finish here
2. He's half the price of Inexile yet look at those horses that competed in both races - Mullionmileanhour beat BM 3.75l, Inexile beat him 4.5l. Mullionmileanhour beat Evens and Odds 2.75l, Inexile beat him 5.5l. Clearly not as simple as that but as I say, he's nearly half the price.

Inexile was expected to need the run lto yet still won and I liked the way he battled on. I don't have the same going concerns as Plat and think he'll actually appreciate the better ground over this trip.
By:
Horsesforcourses
When: 09 May 10 20:10
Love it when a race divides opinion!!

I really cannot see Sayif liking this flat course personally. Clearly not a stack of evidence to support that theory but that's my gut feel and i'm sticking with it.
By:
turnip turns
When: 09 May 10 20:11
Devil trust the gut.
By:
Horsesforcourses
When: 09 May 10 20:16
Rude not to! Silly
By:
turnip turns
When: 09 May 10 20:19
Baby doing well H ?
By:
zilzal1
When: 09 May 10 20:28
I do think Society Rock could take this lot, i dont normally like 3yo's in May but will have a little on this lad


Is Forte Dei Marmi a 100 horse???
By:
Benjy
When: 09 May 10 20:29
Cheers for the reply hfc.

Mullionmileanhour was slightly outpaced at Newmarket and I guess the sharper course won't suit, although they will go off very fast I expect with Inxile in the line up. Maybe holding him up will be to his favour as I'm sure he'll be finishing well. That was only his fourth start in life as well (and his 2nd in 2 years) so it's possible he could still be improving.

Not sure how much Inxile was expected to need the run lto though tbh. I backed him that day but took sp and remember him returning half the price I thought he might.
By:
Benjy
When: 09 May 10 20:42
Society Rock was very impressive on the eye lto to be fair. Golden Jubilee bet maybe as a cover.

Aviate winning the Musidora would be ideal for my Oaks bet. Hopefully it's not too dificult a race.
By:
Horsesforcourses
When: 09 May 10 21:27
Good thanks tt although we're in the slightly unusual position were she wants to sleep through the night so we're having towake HER for feeding! Madness...

Tbf benjy I can 't be too harsh re Mullionmileanhour as he was my second pick behind Inexile. What I posted was just the reasoning behind how I finally settled on the pick ahead of yours.

The comment re needing the run came from the RP report so quite possibly not true. However he did seem to improve with each run at the begining of last season so perhaps there's a bit more improvement to come.
By:
Soap
When: 09 May 10 21:31
Fol entered on Thur - think will go and see him for first time for a while as racing looks good.

I think Fol is back on a winning mark especially if jock with the claimer who rode it last few times. Has started not trapping as well as used to, and if ****es that will have major shout based on its big run at York last year.
By:
trev w
When: 09 May 10 22:03
seems to be some negativity towards the fav...but hes won 1st time out last 2 seasons...and could do it again imo.

however offers no value wse.

i,ve had a bit on millon...as he has the potential to be very good...being so lightly raced...he placed @ ascot over 5f...so dont think he needs a stiff 6f...but i do think he needs some cover...which he may not get.

main bet is damien e/w 33s...felt he coming to get inxile @ donny...but maybe the soft ground/1st time out did for him.

dissapointed to see him not win @ thirsk...but think the rail helped the winner that day..whereas damien came wide round the small field.

33s looks fair...and can run on most ground.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 10 May 10 18:10
Anglezarke sniff
By:
platinni
When: 10 May 10 18:13
nope ^
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 10 May 10 18:24
Hard luck then plat Sad
By:
platinni
When: 10 May 10 18:26
solid stats race this and ur fella fails them all im afraid

better luck next time buster

chin up
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 10 May 10 18:27
Laugh
By:
platinni
When: 10 May 10 18:31
Blush
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 10 May 10 18:40
Like the 3 y/o form tbh. A replication of the run behind Ialysos at Haydock or in the King's Stand are good enough to take this imo.
Hasn't won over 6 yet but crying out for the step back up imo
Ok run at Brighton was **** but that's factored in to the price, she's normally very consistent and you can forgive a horse one poor run.

RE: Sayif, from the stats angle don't horses under penalties usually struggle in this race? Confused
By:
platinni
When: 10 May 10 18:45
not sure but KA nearly scored last year from poor draw Confused

besides what hfc says this goes to a horse with proven 6fl form or even a mile(lend a hand and monsieur bond).  couldnt touch a horse with best form at a min
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 10 May 10 18:55
Not 100% with that, but War Artist narrowly failed the year before iirc as well.

Not convinced Sayif is in the same class as Sayif or King's Apostle tbh, although this does appear a weaker renewal than those two races
By:
turnip turns
When: 10 May 10 18:59
Not convinced Sayif is in the same class as Sayif Laugh
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