who the **** wins the derby ??

I see a brown horse running past other brown horses. ;)

And me TT, and me

Working out Aidan's chosen one really is part of the fun and he's got a raft of good ones to choose from again.
St Nicholas Abbey will go there with all the stats against him and a dodgy prep, Jan Vermeer could be on a completely different journey for all we know, Mikhail Glinka looks like one for the traditionalists (Ballysax etc), Cape Blanco unbeaten, Joshua Tree, Midas Touch and others will probably mop up trials, Fencing Master.

What larks!

Got Joshua Tree and Fencing Master on my mind at the mo. ;\

Dibir and Ibn Sina cannot win then
Many thanks Kincsem for shortening the longlist :)

How far dubai fantom ? ;ç

With regards Al Zir....if a medaglia D'oro wins a g1 over 12f at epsom I'll most likely pack it in imo.

Any news on Burj Nahar?

jair1970

Stats are against St Nick? What stats? The record of recent racing post trophy winners like High Chaparral, Motivator and Authorized going on to win the Derby?

Trying to figure out his first string? Have you just taken up horse racing?

Ballydoyle, name me the last Derby winner to be unplaced on turf as a 3yo before the race??

This is assuming he doesnt have another run

Provided Jan Vermeer is a non-runner, Midas Touch looks the most likely winner to me at this stage.

The Dante may alter that view, but even if we get an impressive winner of that race, 14/1 Midas is still a decent bet imo.

Zilzal, with all due respect, that stat sounds like a pile of b0ll0x.

Formwise, in finishing 6th in the Guineas he has achieved far more than most of the trial 'winners', nevermind the 'placed' horses.

It's pretty damning tbf, points to Derby horses being brought through the Grades and then culminating in a big race, in this case the Derby (we know they don't usually go on much afterwards either). I think Dr Devious was the last, had to look that up quickly though.

I can see the angle Ben but I stand by what I said, form wise he has achieved more than the trial 'winners' and 'placers'.

Yep, but it wasnt on turf and he raced in the Kentucky Derby prior too Epsom, last was the year Before when Generous was 4th to Mystiko.

I go back a few years and i cant ever remember the last one to be out of the top four

Most will say formwise he achieved more in the RP Trophy than most of the trial runners but he's ran to a similar level twice in a row now, and that is perhaps what concerns me.

Thanks Zil, missed the turf bit :)

Very fair point Ben, but if he runs to exactly the same level of form for a third time in a row will that be good enough to win this seasons Derby in your opinion?

That is the 64k Question, 3yos can suddenly leap forward and bridge a gap. Another question being do you trust SNA's form at his price, we still have the Dante and the Irish 2000 to go yet, and as much as i was taken by him in the RP, i have this nagging feeling that hes going to be one of those two year olds that cost people money at three.

I think he will need to step up on his known form, the trip and ground could bring that but it may still not be enough and won't be in my opinion.

Not sure about his price tbh, I think it represents value but I can see why people think it isnt.  The reason I think it could be value is because he has the best form in the race (imo) and is bred to improve greatly for the stiffer stamina test that the Derby will provide. 

if he had been given a more traditional prep like Ballysax and/or Derrinstown then I have no doubt he would have won both of those races in a hack canter and he'd be odds on now.

ben10 Joined: 06 Sep 07
Replies: 1382 10 May 10 16:21 
Most will say formwise he achieved more in the RP Trophy than most of the trial runners but he's ran to a similar level twice in a row now, and that is perhaps what concerns me.

Remember the wind though Ben. He drafted for 1/2 the race. Used NO energy. That RP is meaningless form imo.

amaru Joined: 14 Dec 04
Replies: 290 10 May 10 16:30 
Very fair point Ben, but if he runs to exactly the same level of form for a third time in a row will that be good enough to win this seasons Derby in your opinion?

Imo, no AM. He'll need to be better than 6th in the 2000 to win the Derby and he most likely won't be. 7/2 a very obvious lay imo.

midas thouch is a gud thing.

Imo, no AM. He'll need to be better than 6th in the 2000 to win the Derby and he most likely won't be. 7/2 a very obvious lay imo.


Fair enough that you think he'll need to be better than his 6th in the Guineas but why do you think that he most likely wont be C2?  As a mile winner at 2 you would expect him to need further than that at 3 which the Guineas run seemed to suggest and his breeding points to him being a proper 12f horse.  In my view he has already shown form well up to winning what looks a below par Derby and with the step up in trip sure to bring about improvement I just cant see past him.  I get the real strong impression that Ballydoyle think he could be something out of the ordinary too and think they might muller this one on the day into a very short price.

Coordinated Cut for me - even if he gets beaten in the Dante.

Maidstone Mixture spaff

Looking at the pattern for recent years it seems the 2000 Guineas is working out to be the best Derby trial. Sir Percy, New Approach and Sea The Stars 3 of the last 4 winners, and the second in Authorized's Derby Eagle Mountain ran well in the Guineas

Looking at St Nicholas Abbey, its obvious how highly Ballydoyle rate him. They wouldn't have ran him at Newmarket had they thought he couldn't win it, but as it turns out he was outpaced and still ran creditably despite that. The Derby always looked to have been the long term plan, and there was no doubt his ability as a two year old.

APOB's weren't running that well around Guineas time if I recall correctly  so it was a massive effort imo

I've not seen any horses in the other Derby trials yet that made me think they were up to Derby class, and Workforce, as good as he looked on his debut still hasn't achieved much and looks a bit of a hype job imo.

However the Dante looks to be the strongest trial by some way, so as yet, i'm holding fire on SNA, although it looks ever increasingly that he will be getting my cash

gl

I agree with fft tbh

  forum getting slower imo.

Hey Am

In an average year, he'll need to be a timeform 130+ horse. At the moment we have his best form in the RP which I do not believe.I am quite sure he drafted off the others, so the form is menaingless. The 2000 6th was OK but at 5/4 THEY thought he would do better. This on its own is a very strong pointer to future failure at all levels, i.e.beaten when heavily backed. His other notable run was when beating the very Layali something.I watched that race and he made heavy weather given he was 5/2 on. He has shown me nothing which suggests he will be 130+ in the next few weeks and though he could be the probabilities say he won't be (how many horses are?). In all a lay at 7/2 and a back at 7/1. GL

St Nicholas Abbey will win the Derby

Thanks Zilzal for pointing out that St nick has a whopping great unwieldy '6' next to his name.
Not the mark of a Derby winner.

Sure he could win and sure he could be special BUT we went through this last year with Rip Van Winkle.

He couldn't even beat his stable let alone win off the back of a Guineas flop.  What makes St Nick different?
It's 8 YEARS since Aidan won this and he couldn't even win it with an Arc winner, that 'they' let go off 25/1?

So yes, 'Ballydoyle' i've just started following horse racing and know nothing.  Lump into St Nick have a great day.  FFS

Jair


None so blind as those that will not see.

Brian Boru

s.n.a all day long .
the point  zilzal made about finishing 6th is not relevant this year because a lot of horses especially obriens were
not ready because of the freakish winter.
the point ben made about him possibly not training on a few weeks ago will be a sensational call if correct.
if however he has trained on there will be only one winner of
the derby.if you take the view that i did that he should never have been in the guineas field then 7/2 for the derby is a fair price. especially when you consider that if he never ran in the guineas he would be sitting at 6/4 for the derby just now.

well thats the closest thing to a derby winner...that i've seen so far this season...

Strongest of the trial races (bar the Guineas) and he did it pretty well. Still think SNA will win though

Cape Blanco, 5/1 to win today and 6/1 to win the Derby. Makes no sense at all. Duly laid at 6/1.

Why not? Impressive enough today and beat useful yardsticks, he's shown he's trained on from his 2 y/o career, arguably he should be favourite for the Derby now imo

Although I re-iterate my above statement regarding SNA

He was only such a big price today due to stable form and how O'Brien's horses have run so far in England.

The 6/1 assumes

(1) That if you run today's race 1000 times, the winner would never lose.
(2) The quality of today's race is superior to all other races in which any of the runners have run (not only the trials).

They may both be true but the odds in not in favour. 6/1 is as idiotic as the 7/1 Workforce laid yesterday.

Also, AOB's horses have always come on for the first run and he had a reported setback on Sunday.

Two other reasons for why he was such a big price today. Good performance to overcome these difficulties, but i'm happy with my 25/1.

Murtagh definitely on St Nick, so guesssing Heffernan will be onboard which is fine.

(1) That if you run today's race 1000 times, the winner would never lose.

Of course not, but you can only run that race once, and he did it very nicely, and deserves his place in the market

(2) The quality of today's race is superior to all other races in which any of the runners have run (not only the trials).

Apart from possibly the 2000 Guineas, i'd say it was some way the best 3 y/o  middle distance race for colts we have seen so far this season



And 6/1 about CB is not as idiotic as 7/1 Workforce. CB is 6/1 AFTER winning a recognised Derby trial comfortably and Workforce was 7/1 AFTER winning only a maiden race



I'm not trying to be pedantic, just think that the price about him at the moment is very fair imo, if not borderline value

Cape Blanco was 5-1 today because Workforce and Chabal were overrated.

CHABAL ONLY WINS FIRST TIME OUT /WORKFORCE MAIDEN WINNER/COORDINATED CUT HAD AN ERECTION IN THE PADDOCK NEARLY TOOK MY EYE OUT/OTHER RUNNER SHOULDNT HAVE ...CAPE BLANCO CROCKED ...........SNA DERBY STROLL

whatever murtagh rides on the day imo :o

And 6/1 about CB is not as idiotic as 7/1 Workforce. CB is 6/1 AFTER winning a recognised Derby trial comfortably and Workforce was 7/1 AFTER winning only a maiden race

Good point FFT, but that still doesn't change my mind!



LOL at Henry

Midas Touch won his Derby trial in the fastest time put up for the trial for 20 years and he is still 16/1 with Lads

speaking of times CB was only .5sec slower than Sariska today which IMO lends much weight to his performance

And he carried more than she did. What would the wfa be at this time of year over 10.5f?

Everone still happy that St Nick is the number 1 hope for the Derby?

As if that makes the slightest difference to which Ballydoyle horse will run best...

You been drinking mate?

Is coordinated cut gay? an erection in a paddock full of colts FFS

LOL GELDING SOON IMO  as for cape blancos time York can be a slow track often the ground was lightning fast yesterday which does have a massive bearing 2 or 3 secs at the very least on a normal year spencer said ground shouldnt be this quick not safe loads of non runners in other races THE GROUND IS THE ONLY REASON TIMES WERE SO FAST

Looks like Chabal will get his chance at Epsom. Agree with the trainer about the ground being too fast for him at York. IF he shows his earlier form he still has a chance and was never going at York.



BIN SUROOR UPBEAT ON CHABAL

By Ashley Iveson, Press Association Sport

Saeed bin Suroor is confident Chabal can still show his true colours at Epsom next month following his disappointing display in Thursday's Dante Stakes at York.

The former Jim Bolger inmate was sent off favourite for the recognised Derby trial following success on his Godolphin debut at Sandown, but he trailed home a well beaten fourth of the five runners.

Bin Suroor feels the quick ground that prevailed on the Knavesmire was the main cause of his downfall and a tilt at Classic glory in the Investec Derby remains on his radar.

"In his last piece of work before York, Ted Durcan rode him in a gallop at Newmarket and it was really good," said bin Suroor.

"I was shocked to see the horse run so bad but his best form is in softer ground and it was too fast for him.

"The next morning the horse was healthy, sound and he ate his feed.

"I'm still happy the horse has the class, he's still in the Derby and it's more than likely he's going to run."

Bin Suroor could well be represented at Epsom with 2000 Guineas ninth Al Zir ready to step up in trip.

"Al Zir is by Medaglia D'Oro and needs a mile and a quarter plus," the trainer told Racing UK.

"The English Derby could be perfect for him as the horse is getting better all the time."

I hope he is right,had some 20-1 before the dante and 100-1 plus after, just incase they ran it, my each-way double with Timepiece could still be alive,thats made my day, thanks Kirk.

If you look at Azmeel's price there is no way Chabal who beat him comfortably last time can be considered as having less chance than him now after running on ground he just didnt act on at York.

Always perplexing how horses are written off by connections (normally wealthy ones) for a Classic after one under par run. It is as though they actually believe that was as good as they are quite often and didnt meet the grade even though they have shown much earlier they could with a good run.

To be fair it is generally a ridiculous notion that they think they know she/he wont win a Classic so wont run her/him basedon opinion.

Great to see Bin Suroor shattering this notion and showing common sense, it may pay off if the horse who smashed Azmeel at Sandown shows up for the Derby.

As with SNA, history is against you. Name the last Derby winner
a-To be out of the 1st three in its prep
b- To be beaten in the Dante

History generally follows the one strike and out rule mentioned below. That is the point I am making otherwise more outsiders may have won, generally there has been a 'you are not good enough because of this run' attitude amongst the more wealthy connections which means trial winners are often not re-opposed on the day by a large number of trial victims.

Have always been perplexed by this as there is no doubt there would have been reversals from time to time because horses are horses, have off days like us. We just accept this as being the way it is imo.

Not complaining mind because it makes antepost what it is and surer than it would be if they did re-oppose.

Chabal looked a good horse before the Dante,trained like a good horse,form franked by Azmeel,well backed on the day,if you accept it didnt go on the firm ground,there were lots of NR at York,then it must still have a chance in an open Derby,when the favorite still has something to prove.

Chabal was backed as if the ground would be no problem at York.We are now getting this as an excuse as to his bad run! Maybe he is just not good enough? Cant see him placing at Epsom whatever the ground conditions.

Think he was being backed because Stoutey was making it loud and clear Workforce wouldnt like the ground and the winner might need the run. Madness to have a bet in that race anyway at the prices with all the unknowns.

The Sandown trial was a crawl, the form means nothing.

Bullet Train is the only horse that appeals to me at the prices. The Lingfield trial didn't reveal a great deal because it was a slowly run affair but it looked like he had come on from Newbury, where I thought he looked very promising considering he probably needed the run. I still think he has untapped potential, whereas much of the opposition look relatively exposed.

SNA's RPT win is still the best piece of form but I thought he was hugely disappointing in the Guineas and I don't buy the excuses. While it would be foolish to write off his chances, only an idiot would want to back him at the current price.

The other two O'Brien runners, Midas Touch and Cape Blanco, look much of a muchness, I have Midas Touch just 1 pound ahead of his stablemate. They seem a similar standard to Frozen Fire and it usually takes a bit more than that to win the Derby. Both horses are open to improvement but watching the style of the victories I wouldn't say it's obvious they will.

I doubt Bullet Train is a great horse but he might not need to be to win this year.

I agree Figgis, its a wide open Derby unless SNA is a superstar and the jury is still out . Have done a King Henry treble for a bit of fun, bullit train , timepiece , manifest , pays a 1000-1 , good luck with your bets.

Spirit, the last time I did a Cecil Oaks/Derby double it came up, with Ramruma and Oath (chronic aftertiming), both of their chances were a bit more obvious though, good luck.

I have a bet done a while back, bullet train at 50's and timepiece at 20's, just for fun 5 euro ew double! Have them both backed separately also of course. Good night out if they both come in! [smiley:crazy] C'mon d master!

town moor Joined: 30 Nov 07
Replies: 172 14 May 10 09:13   
Is coordinated cut gay? an erection in a paddock full of colts FFS 

no but there were some talented yorkshire fillies about

are there any lesser races still considered to be trials left to run??

Is the Predominate stakes still run at Goodwood,or is it finnish now ?

It's now called the Cocked Hat Stakes  must be soon imo.

3.45 Wednesday innit

TT

Looks a pile of gash to me

Agreed,bunch of handicappers by the looks

Laid off my rewilding bet today and had a bit on bullet train to go with my earlier al zir bet. Still not convinced about coordinated cut MP.

Contenders

SNA - Ran just Ok in the 2000 Guineas but was champion 2yo. Bred to stay 12 furlongs and the stable seem to believe he is their best chance and seems the probable ride of JM. If he wins we will all be looking back at how obvious it was - a decent run in the guineas when the stable was totally out of form, and still the best horse on form. However at 2/1 or shorter there are just too many doubts now for this to be sensible. I would be a backer myself at 5/1.

Cape Blanco - always well regarded by the stable (Hard to know what to make of JM's post Dante comment that he can only be running for second place if SNA turns up at Epsom). Cape Blanco is unbeaten in 4 races, acts on any going and has just won the best English Derby trial by 3 lengths. He is bred to stay a mile and a half alright and has a very obvious chance.

Midas Touch - Won a maiden last year by 7 lengths and was behind Jan Vemeer in a French bog at the end of the season. won the best Irish Derby trial very well in a very fast time, and although that trial looked the most miserable renewal I can remember before the race, he won well, is progressive, and is absolutely certain to stay very well indeed. May be more of St leger horse but has a chance at Epsom.

Bullet Train Henry Cecil's Derby horse. There was a time when this alone would make him a short listed animal and the great man is certainly becoming more competitive again which is just wonderful news. There are few trainers with the knack of getting inside a horse's head and understanding their individual needs. Has improved 22 lbs from first to third run - said to be still a bit immature. has huge scope for improvement, but needs to be avout 14 lbs better than his lingfield Derby trial would suggest. If the Derby was being run in July, I would be more hopful. Has a chance as he is bound to stay 12 furlongs without being so stoutly bred you would worry that he might be too slow. A chance but its a big ask for a horse described as "still learning" by the great man.

Rewilding After progressive for on soft going for Fabre, got faster going for the first time in the Goodwood trial, and absolutely slaughtered a decent field (there were three horses in the field all rated over 100). Looks to have the ideal conformation for Epsom, stays 11 furlongs and sure to get 12. Actually has rather better form than Bullet Train and is also very progressive but also more battle hardened. Aiden's horses are a bit in and out. He has a decent chance at Epsom and I disagree with the Morning line pundits who thought 10/1 was far too short a price. The Goodwood form looks pretty decent to me and he did murder a decent lot there. Not a horse to dismiss lightly imo.

Workforce - won a maiden in amazing style although the form of that race was very modest, showed he is a group horse when finishing second in the Dante, maybe feeling the good to firm going. Only raced twice and so both inexperienced and open to significant improvement. Looks likely to stay the trip okay and would have a chance. Interestingly the bookies take very different view about his chances with Korals as long as 14's but Hillz and others as short as 8's.

Azmeel - 20's still available about this colt, who overcame some trouble in running to win the Dee Stakes (won in the past by Oath en route to Epsom). A progressive colt who may have improved a bit since he was beaten by Chabal, and sure to like the track. Azmeel is in my view a probable but not absolutely sure stayer at Epsom, but he has been carefully brought along and educated by his shrewd handler and I certainly would not put anyone off having a decent bet at 20/1.

Chabal is worth a mention. He ran 34 lbs below his Sandown form at York, with the possibility of the fastest ground that he has faced being the only excuse that I have seen. He is obviously capable of running far far better than he did at York, and his price on here of around 60 is pretty generous for a horse that won a trial at Sandown convincingly from Azmeel who went on to win the Dee Stakes quite nicely. If you just gorget about the York run , as I am inclined to, he would have a similar chance to Bullet Train and Rewilding. He is huge value.

As for any bets just now, I am inclined to wait for the going and the  overnight decs before making a decisoon, although a few quid on Chabal is not stupid, just as a metter of value.

gota say i'm looking forward to the derby & oaks more than ever atm....
decent size fields with an open feel about both races...

who the **** wins the derby?

clearly not st nicholas abbey.

mp,why is it clear then?

That irish mob have ruined it for me. I can honestly say after logging in god knows how many times and looking forward to it for a long time that i just don't give a **** now. It's a British classic and they have ****ed us about no end.

Just to mention, i took 33s on JV a very long time ago, so it's not sour grapes. He's also still 14s for the Arc so nobody is missing out anyway. I'm just fed up with that mob treating British punters with utter contempt, and feeding us lie after lie.

What lies??

Lies about their horses having niggles/potential set backs or problems in training. They are either the unluckiest bastards on this planet, or they are telling us fibs. No other top trainers have these problems on a regular basis.

There just stupid paddys after all.
Ignore them......while they just hoover up all the money!

Thats about it warmdown,got it in one!

How do you know they are lies???

What was the most the great MVOB ran in the Derby??

I remember three in 1977, dont ever recall more though

cape blanco wins.

Here comes the Irish offended card already. I never said any Irish people were stupid. Too many Irish trainers show a lack of respect, and to me it's plain and simple. Bolger does it, Curley and O'brien also do it. We're close to what many see as our biggest classic, yet out of O'briens horses, more and unconfirmed than confirmed. We know what other people plans are, yet this mob trudge on to the track with entourages and dark sun glasses as if they're more important than other people. British trainers don't go over the Irish courses and treat people with utter contempt, so we should be afforded the same custom.

I should also add that many Irish people are getting fed up with them as well. That's going by one of the comment sections on an Irish racing site anyway.

Agree with you to an extent but am wondering how you know what the lies are???

I call them liars because they with hold information and tell us they don't know what will happen with certain horses when they do. Their horses set backs and injuries are completely disproportionate with other trainers in racing. They are nothing without punters both sides of the pond, so should therefore be more open about their intentions. Even from a breeding operation viewpoint, i see no benefit for them to act in this way, other than to attention seek and be awkward. they remind me of celebrities who like to turn up late at events to add to their own ego.

I would like to see your stats on the disproportionate occurrence of set backs and injuries from the operations you mention with other operations?? Not having a go I am genuinely interested...

Just backed SNA @5.5  reason,price innit,taken a chance tbh,gut feeling it will run,and that price won't be around,still like Bullet Train and will back it,just waiting for the right price,by backing SNA have gone against what i've been saying,but it was 7/4 then,everything has a price,including me

There's another reason i think he's lying. There are funny prices floating about for SNA to place & win, yet he said there wouldn't be a decision until they train Tuesday/Wed. It appears to me that the decision has already been made.

Seems someone has also decided to cover on Bullet Train before the price collapse.