Was the Racing Post Trophy full of slow horses

I think every 2 y.o UK race last season was full of slow horses as a French trained, Tregoning cast off beat the lot of em easily.

The 2,000 g was run at a crawl. For a horse bred to stay a mile and a half; St Nic did well to hang in there, and will come on leaps and bounds for his first run..

RPT never throws up speed horses. SNA ran a good Derby trial.

The trick is to say that BEFORE the race mate.

Dunno but I reckon time will prove the 2,000 Guineas was.

The finishing position of Canford Cliffs says it all really. They went just a hack canter for the first half of the race and then sprinted, which played right into the hands of the sprinters like Makfi, Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs. You'd have got a completely different result if they had gone a true end-to-end gallop. Fair play to everyone who laid SNA or thought he was too short a price, but it has to be said that you can't draw broad conclusions about the RPT from today's Guineas result.

Dewhurst 2nd, 4th, 7th

Racing Post Trophy only 5th, 6th, 9th

and the best horse from the Dewhurst missing, Steinbeck due to breeding reasons in preference of his stablemate.

1 15 Makfi 9-0 C P Lemaire M Delzangles 3 33/1
touched 40/1 £40000-£1200 Each Way £20000-£600 Each Way
2 11 1¼ Dick Turpin (IRE) 9-0 R L Moore R Hannon 3 16/1
opened 25/1
3 4 ½ Canford Cliffs (IRE) 9-0 R Hughes R Hannon 3 12/1
touched 14/1 £10000-£700
4 17 1 Xtension (IRE) 9-0 A Kirby C G Cox 3 25/1
5 1 ½ Elusive Pimpernel (USA) 9-0 E Ahern J L Dunlop 3 9/2
opened 13/2 touched 7/1 £10000-£1400 Each Way £5000-£700 Each Way (x2) £10000-£1600 Each Way £5000-£900
6 12 nk St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) 9-0 J P Murtagh A P O'Brien 3 Evs f
opened 11/10 touched 6/5 £25000-£20000 £12500-£10000 (x2) £5000-£4000 (x2) £2500-£2000 (x3) £1250-£1000 (x2) £1000-£800 £18000-£15000 £12000-£10000 (x2) £6000-£5000 (x2) £4800-£4000 £3000-£2500 (x2) £2400-£2000 (x4) £12000-£1000 (x8) £5500-£5000 (x2) £2200-£2000 (x3) £1100-£1000 (x6) £550-£500 (x2)
7 9 ½ Fencing Master 9-0 C O'Donoghue A P O'Brien 3 14/1
8 3 nse Red Jazz (USA) 9-0 M Hills B W Hills 3 66/1
opened 80/1
9 10 2¼ Al Zir (USA) 9-0 L Dettori Saeed Suroor 3 16/1
touched 20/1 £10000-£500 Each Way £8000-£400 Each Way £18000-£1000
10 16 2½ Fair Trade 9-0 J Fortune D R C Elsworth 3 50/1
opened 66/1
11 14 ½ Viscount Nelson (USA) 9-0 K Fallon A P O'Brien 3 40/1
opened 50/1
12 5 1 Lord Zenith 9-0 William Buick A M Balding 3 100/1
13 6 1 Hearts of Fire 9-0 S Pasquier Pat Eddery 3 40/1
touched 33/1
14 19 1½ Buzzword 9-0 Ahmed Ajtebi M Al Zarooni 3 80/1
opened 66/1
15 2 1 Awzaan 9-0 R Hills M Johnston 3 8/1
opened 9/1 £5000-£550 Each Way
16 18 ½ Inler (IRE) 9-0 A Culhane J R Best 3 33/1
opened 28/1
17 8 nk Audacity Of Hope 9-0 t J P Spencer P J McBride 3 125/1
opened 150/1 touched 100/1
18 13 5 Greyfriarschorista 9-0 J Fanning M Johnston 3 200/1
opened 150/1
19 7 1½ Elspeth's Boy (USA) 9-0 S Drowne J R Best 3 100/1

jamesp great advocator of the RPT over the Dewhurst .. you were wrong mate

kirk st. moritz 01 May 15:47


Dewhurst 2nd, 4th, 7th

Racing Post Trophy only 5th, 6th, 9th

and the best horse from the Dewhurst given the elbow from the race ;)

The results clearly show which was the best Guineas trial and the horse with the most potential from it criminally left out to make way for his stablemate.

For what it's worth I still think that SNA's win in the RPT was the best performance by a two-year-old last season. A true gallop today would probably have shown the true merit of the form. Sadly we'll never know. I suspect that the Guineas form will prove very unreliable and is likely to be turned upside down in the next few months.

Disagree they crawled early, that would have suited SNA if it was ran like the RP Trophy, in fact it gives you even less reason to stick up for him

Replica of the RPT no excuses please. Steinbeck would have burned that up straight out the stalls ...

I'm not really surprised that the Dewhurst form as a whole worked out better than the RPT form today - the slow early pace played into the hands of the sprinter types. Even so, it has to be conceded that SNA was found out for pace in what turned into a 4f sprint.

He wasnt good enough as he wasnt fast enough which is normal for RPT winners. Wisen up.

Did you have a saver on the winner Kirk.............

No ... I lost on the race. Unusual for me ;)

Steinbeck I had for a fortune in doubles singles in my book ... gutted they ran this speedless nag, a Montjeu on fast ground over a mile instead for stud reasons. Sea The Stars is going to be a millstone around all our necks now.

I need to sit down......................

Kirk they would have run Steinbeck if hed been ready for the job.
Form book is choc full of them taking on each other with their best horses.
Hawk Wing V Rock
H.Wing V High Chapperal
Rip Van & Masttercraftsman
etc etc
A 2,000GNS winner for Footstepsinthesand would have been just as important.

Kirk, forgive me for saying so, but you take a remarkably simplistic view of horse racing. Everything is always black and white to you, there are no shades of grey, no nuances. There is absolutely no point in arguing with you. As far as you're concerned, the Dewhurst form has worked out better than the RPT form, the RPT horses were all slow middle distance types, and you are completely vindicated.

I think it's far more complex than that. For one thing, Elusive Pimpernel was beaten 3¼ lengths today, so he finished closer to the Guineas winner than he had done to the RPT winner last October. For another thing, the Dewhurst form was turned upside down, with the Dewhurst runner-up Fencing Master finishing behind not only horses he had beaten in the Dewhurst (Dick Turpin and Xtension) but also the RPT winner and runner-up. SNA was certainly disappointing today and I reckon he probably ran about 10lbs below his best. Was it the ground, the trip, the way the race was run? Or perhaps he has simply not progressed as well as the others. It's too early to draw firm conclusions.

St Nic was the best middle distance horse in a middle distance trial and won it impressively. Elusive Pimpernel was the best middle distance horse in the Craven and won it impressively. But people ignored the fact he was racing against middle distance horses. The winner and placed horses indicate the pace was slow and Fallon isn't the man to put on a potential pacemaker. St Nic surely better on slower ground (knee action/breeding), despite what his trainer says.

jamesp you got it badly wrong when you boil all your bullsh1t down to simple facts. You were wrong .. simplistic dont patronise mate I was right about him .. it isnt rocket science even if your bullsh1t tries to make it out that way.

jamesp 01 May 15:47
The finishing position of Canford Cliffs says it all really. They went just a hack canter for the first half of the race and then sprinted, which played right into the hands of the sprinters like Makfi, Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs. You'd have got a completely different result if they had gone a true end-to-end gallop.

Nonsense, imo.

.. and I have done a bit of rocket science .. that is complex unlike horse X is out of horse Y who won over z F blah blah ;)

Good work getting the Hannon pair placed C2, was well impressed with them, totally surprised me, especially Canford who was running on all the way.

WD with the winner Ben :)

You going to be on later for the Derby? Is it on ATR?

On reflection he might have made more use of Canford but rode him like the stable thought he was a non stayer.

I'll probably be about later for the Derby, don't think it's on ATR but BJG posted a link on the Kentucky Derby thread.

Apparently RUK are showing it for free

Cheers Ben, see you later.

kirk st. moritz 01 May 18:00
.. and I have done a bit of rocket science

I didn't realise rocket science was part of the GCSE Physics curriculum - anyway good luck in your exams this summer Kirk ;)

zilzal1 01 May 16:05
I need to sit down......................

Because Kirk lost? :)

Kirk, not the most gracious winner, but you are 100% correct here, imo.

Sorry that should obviously read "winner".

:)

Kirk and Charlton, you've clearly drawn your own conclusions from today's result, so good luck with your betting in future based on those conclusions. Personally, I will be looking to lay Canford Cliffs every time he runs over a mile in future, as I believe he didn't quite get home today and will be vulnerable against genuine milers in truly-run tests from now on. His future clearly lies back over 6f in races like the July Cup. We presumably won't see SNA over a mile ever again, so there's no point in my making excuses for him: to be frank, he was rather disappointing, even allowing for the way the race panned out. His best trip should turn out to be around 10f. I'm sure that Elusive Pimpernel will do better than he achieved today and still has the potential to win a Group 1 over 8-10f. Overall, it was probably not a vintage Guineas: the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th were all rated in the range 116-118 going into the race and finished within a couple of lengths of each other. SNA (rated 124) clearly ran well below his official rating.

For the sake of forum harmony, I will accept that you were right about him not having the speed to win a Guineas under today's conditions. All I would say in my defence is that Aidan O'Brien let it be known that SNA was clocking the same times at home as the stable's top milers of the past (such as Rock Of Gibraltar, George Washington, King Of Kings, Footstepsinthesand et al). If I got it wrong, so did Aidan!

Kirk has a touch of arrogance in him that doesn't like it when races don't go his way. Only last night he was propounding that 'they knew' and the money was down.
I'd hazard a guess that he's whacked a load on St Nick but is reluctant to admit his lemming bet. Sour Fkin grapes.

Long history of**iness on here and proven time and again to throw toys out of the pram when beaten and losing.

Poor really.

FWIW The race was chock full of 10f types (ST Nick, Fencing Master, Pimpernel) and they all ran as you'd expect. Sure enough in a MILE race the milers came to the fore. Makfi, Turpin, Cliffs and Xtension show little pretension to 10 or 12 furlongs and although it's no good to us now, let us all remember to look for milers in a Guineas and that Sea the Stars was special and they don't come around often

All I would say in my defence is that Aidan O'Brien let it be known that SNA was clocking the same times at home as the stable's top milers of the past (such as Rock Of Gibraltar, George Washington, King Of Kings, Footstepsinthesand et al). If I got it wrong, so did Aidan!

Sorry, but he would say that though. This is a man who loves talking about running milers, and even middle distance horses, in July Cup's, because they all have "so much speed, such a high cruising speed, he's as good as we've had." They never turn up though. lol

Horses run the closing furlongs of races slower than the early part of the race.
Visually St Nicholas Abbey appeared to be sprinting past the field in the Racing Post Trophy. My guess (and one reason I opposed him) was that it was more likely the others slowed significantly and SNAs stamina allowed him to maintain his pace, as you would expect from a 12f horse.

I said on another thread "never trust a wide margin win on soft over 8f by a 2-y-o".

What a completely thick idiot you are as usual jair1970. As I observed what the stable and Lads thought you are now telling everyone it is what I thought even though I have made dozens of posts to the contrary for months before the race. You really arent the sharpest tool on here ... tool yes ... sharpest no.

Hard to take for jamesp and his @ss kissers when they get it so badly wrong I'm afraid.


jair1970 02 May 01:34


Kirk has a touch of arrogance in him that doesn't like it when races don't go his way. Only last night he was propounding that 'they knew' and the money was down.I'd hazard a guess that he's whacked a load on St Nick but is reluctant to admit his lemming bet. Sour Fkin grapes.

Long history of**iness on here and proven time and again to throw toys out of the pram when beaten and losing.



-------------------------

kirk st. moritz 30 Apr 22:51


The money has come in strongly for him ... we now know what the stable think of his chances.




kirk st. moritz 30 Apr 22:51


...and Lads are shortest.

Here is just one of those posts...

kirk st. moritz 12 Jan 21:42


Disagree with you, thought the RPT was full of cr@p slow animals. The Dewhurst was where it was at for milers and for only his second run in his life after a setback and making the running only to fade late Steinbeck turned in a tremendous run.

kirk st. moritz 28 Jan 10:23


All the evidence adds up that the RPT was full of staying types other than one horse who may be quick enough at a mile though there could be better.




jamesp 28 Jan 10:35


I just think you're wrong. Elusive Pimpernel would have gone close in the Dewhurst on good to firm ground. On good to soft ground I'm reasonably confident that he would have won it. York is a slightly quicker track than the Rowley Mile (the standard time at York is 0.4s faster than Newmarket over 7f), but even allowing for that, Elusive Pimpernel ran 7f in 1:22.45, while Beethoven ran 7f in 1:23.49. Elusive Pimpernel is not as slow as you like to think.




kirk st. moritz 28 Jan 10:36


No chance

Correct jamesp I wasnt going to change my opinion ...

jamesp 25 Feb 10:21


Kirk is clearly not going to change his opinion about the horses SNA beat in the RPT, and I'm not going to try to change his view, but this is a discussion forum after all, so here's a summary (from previous threads) of why I believe that SNA did not simply beat a bunch of slow middle distance types in last year's RPT.

It's true that the RPT runner-up Elusive Pimpernel had previously looked outpaced over 7f on quick ground at York, but that race (which was only the second of his career, so he was entitled to show some greenness) was run at a fast pace and he's not sure to get much further than a mile to 10f on pedigree (he's by speed influence Elusive Quality). The RPT third Al Zir had won a couple of 7f races, showing plenty of pace, and he's not an obvious stayer on breeding - Godolphin rate him very highly and seem to have pencilled him in for the Guineas (either the English or French). The fourth Dancing David had won a mile maiden at Newbury, where he quickened twice (the sign of a smart horse), and being by Danehill Dancer is not an obvious stayer either - his half-brother Ordination did stay 12f (but he was by Fantastic Light). The RPT fifth Morana, on the other hand, does look more of a staying type and is likely to want 10f+, having looked short of pace when managing to get up to win over a mile at Ascot. RPT sixth Shakespearean had won the G3 Solario at Sandown over 7f and then a mile sales race at the Curragh, on both occasions making all/most of the running - on breeding he won't necessarily be a stayer either.

In my opinion, several of the horses that finished in prominent positions behind SNA in the RPT will turn out to be milers or 10f horses this year. Elusive Pimpernel is a very smart horse in his own right and has the class to win a Group 1 somewhere this year, most probably over a mile or 10f. It's no fault of SNA that the winning time for the RPT was relatively ordinary (according to the Racing Post figures), although it was actually only just over a second slower than standard on officially 'good to soft' ground, so they were certainly finishing at quite a fast pace (even if they appeared not to go any great pace through the early stages).

It was a high class renewal of the RPT, in my opinion, and SNA simply destroyed the opposition in a respectable time, making the opposition look slow and one-paced. I'd be absolutely amazed if APOB does not consider SNA to be his number one Guineas horse. Canford Cliffs has been mentioned as a possible threat over a mile, but as I have explained in previous posts on other threads I don't think he will stay a mile - he looks like a 6-7f horse through and through.




jamesp 25 Feb 10:37


Elusive Pimpernel, Al Zir, Dancing David and Shakespearean have all been entered for the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (the French 2000 Guineas) - Morana is the only one of the first six home in the RPT not to have been entered for this mile classic. Elusive Pimpernel, Dancing David and Morana are all entered for the Irish Guineas. They are not just slow middle distance horses!

;)

kirk st. moritz 24 Feb 22:02


Slick'N'Smooth apologies if I came across a bit strong on the RPT but I am probably alone on here in thinking it was not a good renewal the winner aside for milers. I believe this will be borne out the coming season with the Dewhust throwing up way more mile Group winners than the RPT. I have very very little doubt about that and cant see where people are coming from with the RPT re milers?

I do feel pretty strongly on this after watching the races over again and realise I am up against the crowd on this one. Good luck.

At the end of the day SNA will not turn out to be the equal of STS.

There can be no excuses after yesterday; Ballydoyle are a very professional organisation if they didnt think there was going to be enough pace they should have sacrificed one of their runners as a pacemaker.

What im inclined to think is that SNA was found out over the mile trip, on ground that he didnt particularly like.

Several people on here argued throughout winter that he was horrendous value and not certain to be top class over a mile.

I think the post-mortum of the race should be along these lines: to those who doubted him, place one big notch in the 'I was right column' :)

jamesp 05 Mar 17:08


Re: SNA and the Derby trip. This has already been discussed at length on other threads, but basically his dam was bred to be a miler (by Sure Blade out of top class 6f winner Flamenco Wave) and his full sister Cascata (by Montjeu) stays 10f but appeared not to get 12f on her only attempt at the trip last year. So the breeding suggests a slight doubt about SNA getting the Derby trip. He's got so much speed that I think the 2000 Guineas is his best chance of winning a classic.




kirk st. moritz 05 Mar 18:05


Breeding .... a Montjeu winning the Guineas?




push 05 Mar 18:09


Not impossible Kirk, Pennekamp was by Bering an Arc winner and Mark of Esteem was by Darshaan French Derby winner ( when 1m 4f ).




unclepuncle 05 Mar 18:20


Kirk - given how much you post on here you really should know by now to give jamesp opinion a lot more respect.

kirk st. moritz 06 Mar 18:15


Montjeu ... SNA wont want it very fast. Think they will go easy on him as a Derby prep if it is.

DATE RACE CONDITIONS WGT RACE OUTCOME JOCKEY OR TS RPR
04Nov00 Chu 12Fm G1 786K 9-0 7/13 4½L, Kalanisi[16/5F]9-0 M J Kinane

Shark12 02 May 13:07

I think the post-mortum of the race should be along these lines: to those who doubted him, place one big notch in the 'I was right column' :)

I have got to admit Kirk should take No 1) spot of the i was right column.

Geoff I concur, as does Charlton.

SNA Looked like a sprinter in this race full of boats lol

I allways find checking P & L on the race is a better guide to wether "I was right" tho .

James, for what it's worth, I completely agree with you. Stunned as to why people think it was run at a proper gallop. Joke race, result would've been the same with an extra couple of furlongs, they went that slow early on.

Well done on Special Duty - I was proved wrong. Although kind of the same thing happened in the 1000 if you ask me. Gutted about Sent From Heaven though.

who thinks it was run at a true gallop?

Cheers SK and bad luck with Sent From Heaven (she clearly benefited, like the winner and runner-up, from the low draw but ran a blinder at big odds - another great advertisement for Barry Hills). It was a very puzzling result (like the 2000G) and at first glance it does not look a great renewal and the form may prove unreliable. We'll see.

Kirk has gone to great lengths to point out where I and others have been in error and where (to his credit) he was right about SNA and the Racing Post Trophy (RPT). I don't wish to get involved in a protracted debate on the subject, but I think it is frankly still too early to make sweeping judgements, based on the Guineas result, about the relative merits of the Dewhurst and the RPT form. I think it's fair to conclude that Dick Turpin has done particularly well from two to three and that he ran much better in the Guineas than he did in the Dewhurst (where he clearly didn't get home and was running just 13 days after his race in France). I think it's also fair to conclude that SNA ran below his best, since there was a 4 length turnaround in form with Elusive Pimpernel from the RPT. We should therefore focus on Xtension, Elusive Pimpernel, Fencing Master and Al Zir.

Elusive Pimpernel beat Al Zir by 2½ lengths in the RPT and the margin between them was very similar (3 lengths) in the Guineas, so it's reasonable to assume that they probably ran more or less to form (not allowing for the fact that they would have been better served by a more even pace throughout the race). Xtension and Fencing Master were separated by just a nose in the Dewhurst, and Xtension reversed the form by just over a length in the Guineas, so again it's reasonable to assume that they ran more or less to form. What these form lines lead me to conclude is that (as I thought before the Guineas) there is very little to choose in terms of basic form and ability (and speed) between the Dewhurst principals and Elusive Pimpernel - they can all be rated in the range 116-118.

SNA was in a different class from Elusive Pimpernel last year and ran a long way (perhaps 10lbs) below form in the Guineas. Why was this? Some, like Kirk, are adamant that no son of Montjeu will ever be effective at a mile at three (particularly on quick ground), yet Aidan O'Brien was convinced on the basis of the times SNA was clocking on the gallops that SNA was every bit as fast as the stable's star milers of the past. So, for me, it's a bit of a mystery: one possibility is that SNA may not have trained on quite as well as his contemporaries (something ben10 had anticipated, based on his breeding), or he may not have been suited by the slow early pace (which benefited the speedier types) in combination with the fast ground, or he may just have needed the race.

Whatever the reason for SNA's disappointing performance in the Guineas, and there's no denying that it was disappointing, it simply doesn't make sense at this stage to conclude that the RPT was full of 'slow' horses. Elusive Pimpernel, as he proved in the Craven, is very effective at a mile, may get 10f, but certainly won't be a 12f horse. He has a terrific turn of foot once he gets into top gear. Similarly, Al Zir is bred to be effective at 8-10f - he's by 8-10f horse Medaglia D'Oro (sire of Rachel Alexandra) out of a speedy mare, he showed plenty of pace when winning twice over 7f last year and he looks like a miler (to my eyes).

We need more evidence before coming to firm conclusions about the relative merits of last year's Dewhurst and RPT. I'm prepared to admit in due course that the RPT was full of slow middle distance horses, but until the principals from that race actually run over further than a mile, I think it's premature to be dogmatic about it.

Dear Kirk,

Apologies for my post of last night 1.34am. I wish that I could say that I had been out celebrating the winner of the Guineas but alas that was not so. I had however been out and buoyed by the night's festivities chose to respond to a the condescending, patronising and sneering tone i'd detected in some of your posts. I see now that it was clear that you were against St Nicholas Abbey and its form and were eager to aggressively pour scorn on the opinions and efforts of other forumites in an attempt to make up for the unbelievable fact that you'd lost money on a race you'd studied, backed and traded upon for a very long time. That your judgement could be so right, yet your profitability be so poor must have been difficult to take for someone who holds his beliefs with such unswerving certainty. The knawing hole that Steinbeck left in the old P and L account would have also contributed to such upset.

;)

Yours

A Blunt tool.

the dewhurst form did not work out better than the r.p.t. imo.
the dewhurst was for horses that were going to be 7f or milers and the r.p.t. was for horses that are going to be 1m2f or 1m 4 f horses.
so when the r.p.t. horses run over these distances then we can judge .for what its worth i thought s.n.a. ran a blinder and will be surprised if he is beaten all season when stepped up in trip.

Wont bother me mate I won thousands on Special Duty today ... I rarely lose antepost but admit if I do lose. I know why I lost on that one race and it is because I didnt spend the time I would normally producing a balanced book which is very unusual for me, did the same with the 1000 but got away with it... it would probably be a normal procedyure for someone with so much arrogance and so little knowledge to go with it as yourself. It is not condascending to be right about something going against the crowd whether it be last years Champion Hurdle being very poor when the rest were applauding it or the RPT both which I went against the crowd with and was right on both. You do your thing and I'll do mine ... happy with that.

p.s if aidan obrien was so convinced that sna was a miler he would never have started his career off at a mile .

the lay preacher you miss the point the whole argument was about their merits as a Guineas trial .... not other further distances which I said they were ... middle distance types. The Guineas showed which was the best Guineas trial conclusively, I even pointed out the importance of the ground .. the lack of admission of being wrong on these counts generally shows the mark of the man imo.

To think a Montjeu is going to perform over as mile on fast Newmarket ground as on the ground with give he has run on before against middle distance types is frankly absurd.

the lay preacher the above were to jair1970 who hasnt learned much in his 40 years other than arrogance without knowledge.

kirk we are reading from the same scpipt m8 i gave sna very little chance of winning the guineas and couldnt believe obrien even ran it
but i do think he will go on to be a champion.i also agree the dewhurst was the better guineas trial but i think the best 2 horses are still sna and ep who i thought ran a tremendous race from what turned out to
be the worst draw of all.

Someone "alledgedly" had an antepost bet on Steinbeck in the 2000Gns and lost the bet because it was withdrawn.
Get over it and stop **ing like an amateur.

the lay preacher, think he ran it chasing Sea The Stars for his masters .. stud rules ok.

Elusive Pimpernel will thrive over a longer trip he takes a while to get into top flight (the Craven was a dire race) can see 1m2f as being his trip bound to win group races now over further than a mile. SNA will also improve for a trip though I am keeping my cards close to my chest on that one for now as judging by the Guineas I probably have a better idea than connections on his ideal conditions now ;)

Yeah but be honest Kirk, you started having a right pop at people cos you were wound up that you'd lost. Perhaps if you'd spent more time balancing the book than posting on here...?

Always great to hear when someone has won unquantified 'thousands', an admirable admission. What was that about the mark of a man? Sorry that you're unhappy with the condescending suggestion, glad to hear that patronising and sneering are acceptable descriptions though.

Ironically, I completely concur with regards rowing against the tide, it's the only way you've got a chance to do anything in this game. I was strong on Canford Cliffs whereas all others thought no, nice to see he got clse and beat the 10f types even if he couldn't win, pace or no pace. Either that or thinking ahead and building a bigger picture than what's in front of you, hence the satisfaction and facscination of Ante-Post betting.

PS I'm neither 40 or arrogant

I am over things like that very quickly kevo .. it doesnt mean I was wrong about the horse only the breeding priorities which are now v v important when placing a position on their animals moreso than ever. It is great to prove people like you wrong time and again kevo ... whether it be last seasons CHurdle or SNA in the Guineas ... it is getting too easy now though tbh.

That is wrong ... there was a mega thread discussing SNA for the Guineas and I pointed out on that how strongly I felt about the RPT irrelevance to the Guineas (in fact I posted it above) .. you need to get over your inferiority complex .. just accept I will always be better than you at this then you can relax.

jair1970 02 May 23:24


Yeah but be honest Kirk, you started having a right pop at people cos you were wound up that you'd lost. Perhaps if you'd spent more time balancing the book than posting on here...?

What is wrong?

What inferiority complex?

I see a man reluctantly admitting he's got something wrong (ie. lost on the race) and masking/diverting from it with something he got right (SNA) and also keen on massaging his own insecurities by believing that he;'s superior to other people.

It's like playground stuff Kirk, get a grip man!

kirk, the breeding angle that you put forward is just another invention and pathetic excuse just because you got it wrong again.

Not another 900 post thread :-(

I got it right against the crowd ... long term that is very important. Long term I win antepost with my own judgement and not taking a 33/1 French winner of this years Guineas doesnt deter me at all as I know it was my worst balanced book ever on the race. If that's all you have got to have a dig at me you are going to lose this argument long term. Looking at both of your contributions on here you are pretty clueless but do represent the typical profile of losers baiting winners on here .. nothing new there.

zilzal1 .. this is a summary of that thread but not popular to those who would rather it was swept under a virtual carpet.

Love these idiots who have a pop then claim you started the 'playground stuff' ... LMAO clown.

jair1970 02 May 23:32


It's like playground stuff Kirk, get a grip man!

You do tend to blame everything else but yourself though, ive never actually seen anyone with a bigger ego than you.

Do you ever say to yourself "Ive made a pigs ear of this, not in public as i wouldnt expect that

Quite Zilzal, quite...

Hence the widespread disdain created by mindless arrogance.

but do represent the typical profile of losers baiting winners on her

You didn't win Kirk.

I know, it's hard to take

Thanks, James. I backed her each way on Friday evening at 50s. Didn't want the horrible scenario of her finishing 2nd or 3rd and not getting paid for it. But 4th? Urgh, I'd rather she'd have finished last.

Looking at the two races, I think it's very fair to say that the form should be looked at with very skeptical glasses. In the 1000, of the 3 horses to come off the pace, the first two were both seen as very pacey horses who might not get the trip. Coming off a crawl, these horses were able to use their natural speed in a sprint finish. In the circumstances, I think Gile Na Greine ran a blinder to finish 3rd. It's very possible that she's a miler since all the stamina-laden horses finished way out the back. As far as I can see, after Gile Na Greine, the next stoutly bred horse in the field is Lady Darshaan in 10th. And they're all back there. Pollenator, Pipette, Hibaayeb - all live Oaks hopes and all way out the back. I can't accept for a second that the draw bias had everything to do with this since Nurture managed to beat Hibaayeb, Habaayib managed to beat Seta, etc.

In time, I think it's very possible that Special Duty may turn out to be a non-stayer.

Almost exactly the same scenario reared its ugly head in the 2000 Guineas. They went absolutely no pace, which given there were 3 Ballydoyle runners, is absolutely laughable. Ballydoyle make an absolute mess of their race tactics constantly and this was right up there with last year's Derby. A comical, comical attempt. The only way a Montjeu Racing Post Trophy winner was going to win was with a suicidal gallop. Where was Air Chief Marshal? Where was Alfred Nobel?

The first 4 home were all very pacey horses and their sire + damsire stamina index figures support this. All were between 15.8 and 17.7. That's incredibly low. Only Sea The Stars,**ney Rebel, King of Kings and Island Sands were below 19.2 in the past 15 years. Fair enough Dubawi's a new sire so Makfi's figure could drastically (and in likelihood will drastically) increase, but Dick Turpin (17.6), Canford Cliffs (16.3) and Xtension (17.7) were all able to use their turn of foot to come off a crawl. Poor Elusive Pimpernel, I'm amazed he got so close.

I'll be stunned if the form's upheld, stunned.

Ballydoyle committed breeding suicide by not running Steinbeck. Horses like Mastercraftsman do sod all for their breeding empire - ordinary milers who outstay the opposition. Ballydoyle need another Rock of Gibraltar type and Steinbeck was exactly the type of horse to do it.

p.s. Al Zir would've been a lot closer were it not for stumbling out of the stalls. I'm still baffled as to why he didn't go to Kentucky instead.

Another thing - I wasn't unlucky. She ran an absolute blinder but 3 horses were clearly her superior today. And given the clear bias towards those drawn low today, another couple could easily have finished in front of her.

Ive got to say never known anyone be so right about a race yet do his gonads.
Thats some achievement Kirk, to be against the "over hyped" staying even money fav.

The profit & loss tells you how right you where. It aint rocket science.
YBM @ his finest.

just accept I will always be better than you at this then you can relax.

LOL, Kirk, right or wrong you need to see someone fella. Maybe thedoctor.

My own take on the race was that St Nicholas Abbet was disappointing. The Dewhurst form wasn't exactly advertised though was it?

The crazy thing abouyt the race was that aiden, again, had 2 horses in the race that were absolutley guarenteed to appreciate the race being as much as a test of stamina as possible. This is also true of Al Zir and even more so of Elusive Pimpernel.

Between them all they did not find the gumption to use a pacemaker. Esp[ecially surprising to me was that Frankie never bothered trying to nick the race from the front.

As it turned out the race was essentially run like a training gallop. The mile was run at crawl for the first half mile and then was a 3 furlong burn up at the end. Unsurprisingly with a race run like this the doubtful stayer Canford Cliffs ran a blinder and the 7 furlong horse Dick Turpin nearly managed to steal it. The winner, was French trained, and he would have loved the was the race was run, since the fench style is to have no pace at all and then a big sprint at the end.

I suppose that I would have to agree with kirk in respect tp his assertion that the Racing Post Truphy was full of horses that were unsuited to a 4 furlong sprint race on fast going. This doesn't mean though that the form of the Racing post Trophy was poor. The line through Elusive Pimpernel to at least 3 other group winners including the breeders cup Juvenile winner was just too strong for this to be sensible.