Horse Antepost
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01 May 10
15:22
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04 Feb 07
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Replies: 81
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I think every 2 y.o UK race last season was full of slow horses as a French trained, Tregoning cast off beat the lot of em easily.
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The 2,000 g was run at a crawl. For a horse bred to stay a mile and a half; St Nic did well to hang in there, and will come on leaps and bounds for his first run..
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RPT never throws up speed horses. SNA ran a good Derby trial.
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The trick is to say that BEFORE the race mate.
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Dunno but I reckon time will prove the 2,000 Guineas was.
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The finishing position of Canford Cliffs says it all really. They went just a hack canter for the first half of the race and then sprinted, which played right into the hands of the sprinters like Makfi, Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs. You'd have got a completely different result if they had gone a true end-to-end gallop. Fair play to everyone who laid SNA or thought he was too short a price, but it has to be said that you can't draw broad conclusions about the RPT from today's Guineas result.
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Dewhurst 2nd, 4th, 7th
Racing Post Trophy only 5th, 6th, 9th and the best horse from the Dewhurst missing, Steinbeck due to breeding reasons in preference of his stablemate. 1 15 Makfi 9-0 C P Lemaire M Delzangles 3 33/1 touched 40/1 £40000-£1200 Each Way £20000-£600 Each Way 2 11 1¼ Dick Turpin (IRE) 9-0 R L Moore R Hannon 3 16/1 opened 25/1 3 4 ½ Canford Cliffs (IRE) 9-0 R Hughes R Hannon 3 12/1 touched 14/1 £10000-£700 4 17 1 Xtension (IRE) 9-0 A Kirby C G Cox 3 25/1 5 1 ½ Elusive Pimpernel (USA) 9-0 E Ahern J L Dunlop 3 9/2 opened 13/2 touched 7/1 £10000-£1400 Each Way £5000-£700 Each Way (x2) £10000-£1600 Each Way £5000-£900 6 12 nk St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) 9-0 J P Murtagh A P O'Brien 3 Evs f opened 11/10 touched 6/5 £25000-£20000 £12500-£10000 (x2) £5000-£4000 (x2) £2500-£2000 (x3) £1250-£1000 (x2) £1000-£800 £18000-£15000 £12000-£10000 (x2) £6000-£5000 (x2) £4800-£4000 £3000-£2500 (x2) £2400-£2000 (x4) £12000-£1000 (x8) £5500-£5000 (x2) £2200-£2000 (x3) £1100-£1000 (x6) £550-£500 (x2) 7 9 ½ Fencing Master 9-0 C O'Donoghue A P O'Brien 3 14/1 8 3 nse Red Jazz (USA) 9-0 M Hills B W Hills 3 66/1 opened 80/1 9 10 2¼ Al Zir (USA) 9-0 L Dettori Saeed Suroor 3 16/1 touched 20/1 £10000-£500 Each Way £8000-£400 Each Way £18000-£1000 10 16 2½ Fair Trade 9-0 J Fortune D R C Elsworth 3 50/1 opened 66/1 11 14 ½ Viscount Nelson (USA) 9-0 K Fallon A P O'Brien 3 40/1 opened 50/1 12 5 1 Lord Zenith 9-0 William Buick A M Balding 3 100/1 13 6 1 Hearts of Fire 9-0 S Pasquier Pat Eddery 3 40/1 touched 33/1 14 19 1½ Buzzword 9-0 Ahmed Ajtebi M Al Zarooni 3 80/1 opened 66/1 15 2 1 Awzaan 9-0 R Hills M Johnston 3 8/1 opened 9/1 £5000-£550 Each Way 16 18 ½ Inler (IRE) 9-0 A Culhane J R Best 3 33/1 opened 28/1 17 8 nk Audacity Of Hope 9-0 t J P Spencer P J McBride 3 125/1 opened 150/1 touched 100/1 18 13 5 Greyfriarschorista 9-0 J Fanning M Johnston 3 200/1 opened 150/1 19 7 1½ Elspeth's Boy (USA) 9-0 S Drowne J R Best 3 100/1 |
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jamesp great advocator of the RPT over the Dewhurst .. you were wrong mate
kirk st. moritz 01 May 15:47 Dewhurst 2nd, 4th, 7th Racing Post Trophy only 5th, 6th, 9th |
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and the best horse from the Dewhurst given the elbow from the race ;)
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The results clearly show which was the best Guineas trial and the horse with the most potential from it criminally left out to make way for his stablemate.
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For what it's worth I still think that SNA's win in the RPT was the best performance by a two-year-old last season. A true gallop today would probably have shown the true merit of the form. Sadly we'll never know. I suspect that the Guineas form will prove very unreliable and is likely to be turned upside down in the next few months.
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Disagree they crawled early, that would have suited SNA if it was ran like the RP Trophy, in fact it gives you even less reason to stick up for him
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Replica of the RPT no excuses please. Steinbeck would have burned that up straight out the stalls ...
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I'm not really surprised that the Dewhurst form as a whole worked out better than the RPT form today - the slow early pace played into the hands of the sprinter types. Even so, it has to be conceded that SNA was found out for pace in what turned into a 4f sprint.
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He wasnt good enough as he wasnt fast enough which is normal for RPT winners. Wisen up.
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Did you have a saver on the winner Kirk.............
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No ... I lost on the race. Unusual for me ;)
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Steinbeck I had for a fortune in doubles singles in my book ... gutted they ran this speedless nag, a Montjeu on fast ground over a mile instead for stud reasons. Sea The Stars is going to be a millstone around all our necks now.
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I need to sit down......................
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Kirk they would have run Steinbeck if hed been ready for the job.
Form book is choc full of them taking on each other with their best horses. Hawk Wing V Rock H.Wing V High Chapperal Rip Van & Masttercraftsman etc etc A 2,000GNS winner for Footstepsinthesand would have been just as important. |
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Kirk, forgive me for saying so, but you take a remarkably simplistic view of horse racing. Everything is always black and white to you, there are no shades of grey, no nuances. There is absolutely no point in arguing with you. As far as you're concerned, the Dewhurst form has worked out better than the RPT form, the RPT horses were all slow middle distance types, and you are completely vindicated.
I think it's far more complex than that. For one thing, Elusive Pimpernel was beaten 3¼ lengths today, so he finished closer to the Guineas winner than he had done to the RPT winner last October. For another thing, the Dewhurst form was turned upside down, with the Dewhurst runner-up Fencing Master finishing behind not only horses he had beaten in the Dewhurst (Dick Turpin and Xtension) but also the RPT winner and runner-up. SNA was certainly disappointing today and I reckon he probably ran about 10lbs below his best. Was it the ground, the trip, the way the race was run? Or perhaps he has simply not progressed as well as the others. It's too early to draw firm conclusions. |
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St Nic was the best middle distance horse in a middle distance trial and won it impressively. Elusive Pimpernel was the best middle distance horse in the Craven and won it impressively. But people ignored the fact he was racing against middle distance horses. The winner and placed horses indicate the pace was slow and Fallon isn't the man to put on a potential pacemaker. St Nic surely better on slower ground (knee action/breeding), despite what his trainer says.
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jamesp you got it badly wrong when you boil all your bullsh1t down to simple facts. You were wrong .. simplistic dont patronise mate I was right about him .. it isnt rocket science even if your bullsh1t tries to make it out that way.
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jamesp 01 May 15:47 The finishing position of Canford Cliffs says it all really. They went just a hack canter for the first half of the race and then sprinted, which played right into the hands of the sprinters like Makfi, Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs. You'd have got a completely different result if they had gone a true end-to-end gallop. Nonsense, imo. |
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.. and I have done a bit of rocket science .. that is complex unlike horse X is out of horse Y who won over z F blah blah ;)
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Good work getting the Hannon pair placed C2, was well impressed with them, totally surprised me, especially Canford who was running on all the way.
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WD with the winner Ben :)
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You going to be on later for the Derby? Is it on ATR?
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On reflection he might have made more use of Canford but rode him like the stable thought he was a non stayer.
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I'll probably be about later for the Derby, don't think it's on ATR but BJG posted a link on the Kentucky Derby thread.
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Apparently RUK are showing it for free
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Cheers Ben, see you later.
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kirk st. moritz 01 May 18:00
.. and I have done a bit of rocket science I didn't realise rocket science was part of the GCSE Physics curriculum - anyway good luck in your exams this summer Kirk ;) |
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zilzal1 01 May 16:05
I need to sit down...................... Because Kirk lost? :) Kirk, not the most gracious winner, but you are 100% correct here, imo. |
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Sorry that should obviously read "winner".
:) |
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Kirk and Charlton, you've clearly drawn your own conclusions from today's result, so good luck with your betting in future based on those conclusions. Personally, I will be looking to lay Canford Cliffs every time he runs over a mile in future, as I believe he didn't quite get home today and will be vulnerable against genuine milers in truly-run tests from now on. His future clearly lies back over 6f in races like the July Cup. We presumably won't see SNA over a mile ever again, so there's no point in my making excuses for him: to be frank, he was rather disappointing, even allowing for the way the race panned out. His best trip should turn out to be around 10f. I'm sure that Elusive Pimpernel will do better than he achieved today and still has the potential to win a Group 1 over 8-10f. Overall, it was probably not a vintage Guineas: the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th were all rated in the range 116-118 going into the race and finished within a couple of lengths of each other. SNA (rated 124) clearly ran well below his official rating.
For the sake of forum harmony, I will accept that you were right about him not having the speed to win a Guineas under today's conditions. All I would say in my defence is that Aidan O'Brien let it be known that SNA was clocking the same times at home as the stable's top milers of the past (such as Rock Of Gibraltar, George Washington, King Of Kings, Footstepsinthesand et al). If I got it wrong, so did Aidan! |
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Kirk has a touch of arrogance in him that doesn't like it when races don't go his way. Only last night he was propounding that 'they knew' and the money was down.
I'd hazard a guess that he's whacked a load on St Nick but is reluctant to admit his lemming bet. Sour Fkin grapes. Long history of**iness on here and proven time and again to throw toys out of the pram when beaten and losing. Poor really. FWIW The race was chock full of 10f types (ST Nick, Fencing Master, Pimpernel) and they all ran as you'd expect. Sure enough in a MILE race the milers came to the fore. Makfi, Turpin, Cliffs and Xtension show little pretension to 10 or 12 furlongs and although it's no good to us now, let us all remember to look for milers in a Guineas and that Sea the Stars was special and they don't come around often |
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All I would say in my defence is that Aidan O'Brien let it be known that SNA was clocking the same times at home as the stable's top milers of the past (such as Rock Of Gibraltar, George Washington, King Of Kings, Footstepsinthesand et al). If I got it wrong, so did Aidan!
Sorry, but he would say that though. This is a man who loves talking about running milers, and even middle distance horses, in July Cup's, because they all have "so much speed, such a high cruising speed, he's as good as we've had." They never turn up though. lol |
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Horses run the closing furlongs of races slower than the early part of the race.
Visually St Nicholas Abbey appeared to be sprinting past the field in the Racing Post Trophy. My guess (and one reason I opposed him) was that it was more likely the others slowed significantly and SNAs stamina allowed him to maintain his pace, as you would expect from a 12f horse. I said on another thread "never trust a wide margin win on soft over 8f by a 2-y-o". |