canford cliff thread reprise

Bookies are at it again. I backed CC myself before his last run, but he has absolutely no chance. I'd have him at 25/1.

Plat, one of the rules I used to use to find horses to follow were those that fought a battle over 200m and finished 5 lengths + ahead of the 3rd horse (which had to be a good yardstick) and were themselves separated by no more than a neck. i.e. both Canford and Turpin would be on my list. He may not stay be he will win races. IMO

:)

sniff

solid rule of thumb there c2 but i disagree in this case (3 horse race, 1 runs under par and is scratched from guineas )?

surely the dewhurst form puts this to bed?

Impressive Coventry winner, slamming the highly regarded Xtension in the process.
Run in France wasn't exactly that bad, and we know how highly Special Duty is thought of
LTO was merely a prep race to get him right for this imo

tt reported

off to bed anyways chap ;)

Ok, but he's a sprinter. He didn't stay 7f lto, was beaten by another dubious stayer(as in stays a 7-8f), ahead of another 6f horse.
If there had been a proper 7-8f horse in that race this pair would be 50/1 shots.

for plat, of course

off now for sure.

Goodnight those of you that aren't dc's

Swagger 28 Apr 22:32
**ney Rebel...
Race hinges on the ground in my view, if it's lightening fast then I rate St Nicholas Abbey as a Win lay and Elusive Pimpernal as a Place Lay with the 6-7 furlong horses who quickened as 2 yr olds coming into play, e.g. lets rewind to the 2000 Guineas with all the non-stayers including**ney Rebel, Vital Equine and Dutch Art... with the horses more proven over the trip (Duke and Eagle Mountain) unplaced...
Too early to write horses off until the draw and ground are known in my opinion.

Well written. Are there other examples (years) like this that would demonstrate your point?

**ney Rebel was 25/1; VE 33/1 & DA 14/1.

Canford Cliffs is 7/1 and smaller!!!
You could take a chance with 25 or 33/1, but 6 or 7/1???
VE had won over 7f also, and been Holy Roman Emp.

Can't believe NM narrows it down to Hannon's runners in today's WE

My point is that if it's fast ground I would rather have a horse who had won over 6 furlongs or 7 furlongs as a two year old and quickened to win those races than a horse who had won several times ultra-impressively over a mile on slow ground. I'm not knocking SNA who may turn out to be another truly exceptional horse after STS last year, but 6/4 really doesn't represent a good price to me. It's not like Georgeous George who quickened and won races over 6-7 furlongs and was bred to win over a mile (and with K Fallon on board).

People see each race differently but 6/4 for SNA is too short in my view, I take the flip side of the coin to what you say about the prices of Vital Equine,**ney Rebel and Dutch Art - Sea The Stars was 8/1 to win the 2000 Guineas and was arguably bred to have more speed than SNA whereas the latter is available at 6/4. Value is in the eye of the beholder.

The Richard Hannon-trained Canford Cliffs won his Newbury maiden by seven lengths from Rakaan before slamming Xtension (subsequently placed in the Dewhurst) by six lengths when making virtually all in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He rounded off his two-year-old season placed third behind Arcano, in the Prix Morny at Deauville. He reversed that form when beating Arcano 6½ lengths in the Greenham on his reappearance, only to be shaded by his stablemate Dick Turpin, after trying to make all and coming off a straight line, drifting across to the far rail. Hannon has won the 2,000 Guineas three times and hails Canford Cliffs as the best he has trained in his 40-year career. The Tagula colt has only raced at up to 7 furlongs so far, but Hannon has no worries about him stepping up to a mile. Canford Cliffs dam sire is Marju who has an average winning distance (AWD) of 9.2 furlongs for his progeny and his sire Tagula an AWD of 7.1. The Dosage points total of 10 is too low for a reliable reading, but two of those points appear in the stamina wing of his profile (deriving from Busted).This indicates that Hannon knows what hes talking about and that the colt has a good chance of seeing out the mile, particularly as they will employ very different tactics in the big race.

from Raceform

Horrible aftertiming but I backed both Arcano and Dick Turpin against C Cliffs in the Greenham as I thought CC was woefully underpriced and wouldn't stay the trip. I now think I got a wee bit lucky and that he had to do the donkey work himself up front as he travelled so well with nothing else to go with him and that he is better in a bigger field - both his defeats came in very small muddling fields. Should he get a low draw near rail where Hughesy can lay him up off what should be a good end to end gallop then I would give him a good chance on fast ground. I remember someone else made a good point on here that if Dick Turpin didn't run in the Greenham then CC would have won his trial by 7 lengths. I think he will stay, the question is if he's good enough in my view.

another thing about canford cliffs is a quick check on breeding and what pops up under sire - tax free and dam sire - asset as the top progeny. not a sprinter however

compared with awzaan sire - haafhd, dam sire - zaar plus a whole host of decent milers and middle distance types

maybe im just blinkered :^0

If quoting Mordi Plat, at least be consistent - from June 2009:

Thinking further ahead I rather suspect he'll need his first run next year as he's such a big horse. So he could end up losing the Craven or the Greenham and still win the Guineas.

He's got the first part right ;)

The distance doesnt change .
But the ask on a horses stamina limitations does.
I would argue that its far more difficult for a potential non stayer to get a mile on heavy than it is on Gd To Firm.

Horsesforcourses 29 Apr 05:40
If quoting Mordi Plat, at least be consistent - from June 2009:

Thinking further ahead I rather suspect he'll need his first run next year as he's such a big horse. So he could end up losing the Craven or the Greenham and still win the Guineas.

He's got the first part right ;)


the stuffiness of the horse has nothing to do with my point hfc. he may be correct there but his comparisons to RP is laughable

all about opinions

Wins, imo