canford cliff thread reprise

Bookies are at it again. I backed CC myself before his last run, but he has absolutely no chance. I'd have him at 25/1.

Elusive Pimpernel twice got the comment in running "outpaced".

Plat, one of the rules I used to use to find horses to follow were those that fought a battle over 200m and finished 5 lengths + ahead of the 3rd horse (which had to be a good yardstick) and were themselves separated by no more than a neck. i.e. both Canford and Turpin would be on my list. He may not stay be he will win races. IMO

:)

This horse is an absolute joke of a price, will not stay 8f, Hughes will have to get off and push him the last 2f.

sniff

fft - why do you like him?

solid rule of thumb there c2 but i disagree in this case (3 horse race, 1 runs under par and is scratched from guineas )?

surely the dewhurst form puts this to bed?

downallstar 28 Apr 22:26
fft - why do you like him? probably because CC has a big @ss.

Impressive Coventry winner, slamming the highly regarded Xtension in the process.
Run in France wasn't exactly that bad, and we know how highly Special Duty is thought of
LTO was merely a prep race to get him right for this imo

**ney Rebel...
Race hinges on the ground in my view, if it's lightening fast then I rate St Nicholas Abbey as a Win lay and Elusive Pimpernal as a Place Lay with the 6-7 furlong horses who quickened as 2 yr olds coming into play, e.g. lets rewind to the 2000 Guineas with all the non-stayers including**ney Rebel, Vital Equine and Dutch Art... with the horses more proven over the trip (Duke and Eagle Mountain) unplaced...
Too early to write horses off until the draw and ground are known in my opinion.

tt reported

off to bed anyways chap ;)

^ :^0

xtension was 20/1 for that race

Ok, but he's a sprinter. He didn't stay 7f lto, was beaten by another dubious stayer(as in stays a 7-8f), ahead of another 6f horse.
If there had been a proper 7-8f horse in that race this pair would be 50/1 shots.

I didn't mean it like that ydc X-(

for plat, of course

off now for sure.

Goodnight those of you that aren't dc's

tt - ;)

Swagger 28 Apr 22:32
**ney Rebel...
Race hinges on the ground in my view, if it's lightening fast then I rate St Nicholas Abbey as a Win lay and Elusive Pimpernal as a Place Lay with the 6-7 furlong horses who quickened as 2 yr olds coming into play, e.g. lets rewind to the 2000 Guineas with all the non-stayers including**ney Rebel, Vital Equine and Dutch Art... with the horses more proven over the trip (Duke and Eagle Mountain) unplaced...
Too early to write horses off until the draw and ground are known in my opinion.

Well written. Are there other examples (years) like this that would demonstrate your point?

:^0 ,Downy ;) ,Plat :x

**ney Rebel was 25/1; VE 33/1 & DA 14/1.

Canford Cliffs is 7/1 and smaller!!!
You could take a chance with 25 or 33/1, but 6 or 7/1???
VE had won over 7f also, and been Holy Roman Emp.

and been 3rd to...**

Can't believe NM narrows it down to Hannon's runners in today's WE

If I had to back one of the pair it would be DT at 20s to confirm placings.
GL lads, i'm offski's. ;)

My point is that if it's fast ground I would rather have a horse who had won over 6 furlongs or 7 furlongs as a two year old and quickened to win those races than a horse who had won several times ultra-impressively over a mile on slow ground. I'm not knocking SNA who may turn out to be another truly exceptional horse after STS last year, but 6/4 really doesn't represent a good price to me. It's not like Georgeous George who quickened and won races over 6-7 furlongs and was bred to win over a mile (and with K Fallon on board).

People see each race differently but 6/4 for SNA is too short in my view, I take the flip side of the coin to what you say about the prices of Vital Equine,**ney Rebel and Dutch Art - Sea The Stars was 8/1 to win the 2000 Guineas and was arguably bred to have more speed than SNA whereas the latter is available at 6/4. Value is in the eye of the beholder.

fair pt swagger. but 20/20 has won over 7 / 8 . CC didnt win a veritable 3 runner over 7?

The Richard Hannon-trained Canford Cliffs won his Newbury maiden by seven lengths from Rakaan before slamming Xtension (subsequently placed in the Dewhurst) by six lengths when making virtually all in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He rounded off his two-year-old season placed third behind Arcano, in the Prix Morny at Deauville. He reversed that form when beating Arcano 6½ lengths in the Greenham on his reappearance, only to be shaded by his stablemate Dick Turpin, after trying to make all and coming off a straight line, drifting across to the far rail. Hannon has won the 2,000 Guineas three times and hails Canford Cliffs as the best he has trained in his 40-year career. The Tagula colt has only raced at up to 7 furlongs so far, but Hannon has no worries about him stepping up to a mile. Canford Cliffs dam sire is Marju who has an average winning distance (AWD) of 9.2 furlongs for his progeny and his sire Tagula an AWD of 7.1. The Dosage points total of 10 is too low for a reliable reading, but two of those points appear in the stamina wing of his profile (deriving from Busted).This indicates that Hannon knows what hes talking about and that the colt has a good chance of seeing out the mile, particularly as they will employ very different tactics in the big race.

from Raceform

Hi Plat - I won't claim to have known this 100% beforehand as I wasn't sure but I just checked the RP website and**ney Rebel had only won over 6 furlongs before winning the 2000 Guineas. I actually agree that C Cliffs is starting to look underpriced now between 6/1-7/1 but the stable have been hyping him up so much it's hardly unexpected!
My personal view is if it's geneuinely fast ground the winner will come from Awzaan, Canford Cliffs or Al Zir. I think all three quickened and travelled well as two year olds over 6-7 furlongs. My worry about Awzaan is his size and as a result if he has trained on. I know he has little chance to reverse form with SNA from the Donny Trophy but I really think Al Zir will run a big race on Saturday and I think he could do it.

Horrible aftertiming but I backed both Arcano and Dick Turpin against C Cliffs in the Greenham as I thought CC was woefully underpriced and wouldn't stay the trip. I now think I got a wee bit lucky and that he had to do the donkey work himself up front as he travelled so well with nothing else to go with him and that he is better in a bigger field - both his defeats came in very small muddling fields. Should he get a low draw near rail where Hughesy can lay him up off what should be a good end to end gallop then I would give him a good chance on fast ground. I remember someone else made a good point on here that if Dick Turpin didn't run in the Greenham then CC would have won his trial by 7 lengths. I think he will stay, the question is if he's good enough in my view.

sry about that, ive written down he had for some reason. but his best performance was over 7 but CC's is still the coventry which is a poor sign imo. CR was a skinner so again i wouldnt be using his win as a blueprint personally

another thing about canford cliffs is a quick check on breeding and what pops up under sire - tax free and dam sire - asset as the top progeny. not a sprinter however

compared with awzaan sire - haafhd, dam sire - zaar plus a whole host of decent milers and middle distance types

maybe im just blinkered :^0

mordin said that sea the stars couldnt possibly get the trip in the derby as he was too keen and showed too much speed :^0

and the dante won by black bear island where they all finished in a heap was the best derby trial for 15 years ;)

If quoting Mordi Plat, at least be consistent - from June 2009:

Thinking further ahead I rather suspect he'll need his first run next year as he's such a big horse. So he could end up losing the Craven or the Greenham and still win the Guineas.

He's got the first part right ;)

8f is 8f regardless of going imo.

The distance doesnt change .
But the ask on a horses stamina limitations does.
I would argue that its far more difficult for a potential non stayer to get a mile on heavy than it is on Gd To Firm.

I see the point your making here lads(geoff) but the ground would only suit/aid a horse if its his ground. ie. a doubtful stayer who loves hvy will not be aided by Gf.
The only way this race suits a sprinter is if its slowly run, if its run at a true pace, then the best horse over 8f will win imv.

Horsesforcourses 29 Apr 05:40
If quoting Mordi Plat, at least be consistent - from June 2009:

Thinking further ahead I rather suspect he'll need his first run next year as he's such a big horse. So he could end up losing the Craven or the Greenham and still win the Guineas.

He's got the first part right ;)


the stuffiness of the horse has nothing to do with my point hfc. he may be correct there but his comparisons to RP is laughable

Racing Post Weekender

Nick Mordin: "It seems to me that unless some wild outsider scores, the 2000 Guineas just has to go to one of Richard Hannon's pair Canford Cliffs and Dick Turpin."

Ken Pitterson: Canford Cliffs, Dick Turpin, Arcano "All three were in need of the run but I doubt any will have a bearing on the 2000 Guineas result."

all about opinions

sh1t draw

Wins, imo

Wild Outside = Makfi. The frenchies know. ;)

bestmate 28 Apr 22:46
Can't believe NM narrows it down to Hannon's runners in today's WE


I am starting to believe it!!

Clearly Dick the value now. Going to back it.

Not convinced DT wants a mile personally

Is it possible Dick Turpin is an early season horse? Or are those runs in Group 1 company as good as he is?

ben is correct

C2
DT is a no hoper for me. Can't see his dad producing a classic winner I haven't ruled out CC yet

Bestmate

The more I look the more open this race is. The only thing I am convinced of is that at the prices the fav is a lay.

Others of interest are Hearts of Fire, Xtension and Al Zir

Gonna be a good one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DT didn't stay 7f as a 2yo, and only stayed 7f beating two 6f horses lto.

St Nicholas Abbey might win but less than 6/4 in a 19 runner field is terrible. Realistically he would need a winning form line with the other low priced horses to justify it.

kinksem

I am not sure if you are joking, however I will rise to the bait.

St Nick has excellent form lines to nearly all the other runners. He has absolutely thrashed 2 of them including the second favourite, and through the second holds everything else on form by around 10 lbs.

isnt gonna stay, simple!!!

tbf to mordin, he said paco boy would stay last year before the queen anne and he was right.

what hughes said immediately after the coventry stuck in my mind. he said that canford was the best horse he ever rode. after just winning the queen anne on paco boy, thats some praise.

Canford's racing style nothing like Paco Boy's nor is his depth of form. I've always said Paco Boy would be fine over a mile, you can find the threads on here.

Richard Hannon (0-2-16) hasn't won the race since 1990 and has only seen 2 of his 16 runners make the places since 2000. Canford Cliffs in July Cup = NAP !

St Nicholas Abbey's form lines to the others rest on the Racing Post Trophy win as far as I can see. That was on good/soft and the early pace was slow. He holds Elusive Pimpernel and Al Zir on that. I suppose EP holds Poet's Voice as he beat him two months earlier on g/f. Al Zir beat two horses in his previous race. And we know that EP beat Dancing David again in the Craven.

You can connect Xtension to Canford Cliffs, CC with Dick Turpin, DT and Xtension to the Dewhurst horses, but how do you compare the Racing Post form to the Dewhurst?

But the question for me is "Do the race conditions of the 2000 guineas suit the favourite?"

The 2000 will probably be run at a fast pace on good/firm, and the field has matured from 2-y-o to 3-y-o. Is 6+ month old form still relevant? There are a lot of variables and I think less than 6/4 about a Derby pedigree horse in the 2000 Guineas is terrible. It is a poor return for the risks.

All of SNAs times were slowish, and he hasn't run on firm. His pedigree is for 10f /12f with cut in the ground.

11/1 on hear now.

While the very early pace may have been slow in the RPT, I find it hard to believe that anybody can think it was a falsely run race. You only have to watch the video to see that it didn't develop into a 2f sprint. Also the style of the victory, beaten distances and imo fast time under the conditions all point to a result that was in no way affected by lack of pace. I think anybody who thinks SNA will struggle to keep up with a faster early pace is clutching at straws.

how can anyone say that canford doesn't stay seven is joking fastest greenham time ever pulling 6 clear of arcano and wasn't even fit

all about opinions.

arcano not good enough to be entered so wouldnt be quoting that form line too much. plus he hung like a monkey and was beaten lto. gl with ur bets

out to 13 on here very weak

A good read.

We all remember Ravens Pass fondly :x

Canford sniff

Canford Sh1t

who's place laying then ? own up

who's **cing backing him to place at 9/4 ?????????? , OWN UP!!!!!!!


more like imo ;)

yes ive laid him at over 2's

My hero, great race from stall 4. Where do they go next?

Hope they go for the Golden Jubilee and not the ST James Palace.

I guess the Jersey could be possible as he'd be a certainty - then on to the July Cup and Nunthorpe (the same as Mozart)

pulled early and finished 3rd. He stays ,we can put that to bed. UL place layers

He'd be a certainty in the GJ imo B-)

fair play to Mordin there.

think he's a cert for the Jubilee myself.

Gunny knows B-)

jubilee - canford
kings stand - overdose

:p

he pulled early...but if they went a good gallop from the off...he may well have felt it more late on....did he truly stay or does his proximity at the end show just how pedestrian it was early on.....ran a great race when all said and done.

This is where Hannon can earn his training fees If he can get that horse to switch off and settle he can win good races over a mile and not just the obvious 7 furlongs
Paco Boy anyone ? :D

I agree entirely with nibbledat :)

Surely St James Palace Stakes will be easier race for him
9/1 on here looks good value?

Overdose and Canford are my 2 favouritest horses at the mo :x

he's a sprinter out of the top drawer who's class got him home well over a mile

hacks up in the GJ :)

And he didn't dive sharp left! Just remembered. WD Hannon if he corrected that ;)

Emma Spencer confirms the St. James Palace for CC
Rubs hands. :D

be interesting to see how Hannon campaigns his two from now on.

CC still hasn't beat Dick Turpin yet btw.

Is a fair point Brodie. If they'd ridden CC to stay the mile would he have done so? I think the St James is the wrong race

Massive run from, quite surprsied tbh.

Beat at 7f, now beat at 8f, droppig backing in trip again ? Still one to be wary off imvho.

Didn't Canford do really well to get this close to the high-drawn leaders from stall 4? Must be the horse to take from the race.

wp backers, defo the horse from the race

Pulling as hard as he did through the first 1/4 mile and still finishing where he did was quite something. Must have an engine,.

brodie 15.31 and he didnt dive left well done hannon if he corrected that .
he didnt correct that at all . this is the first time he has ran on any decent ground and the more give in the ground he gets the better he will be .
irish guineas should be his next target imo.
as he obviously stays a strong run mile.

wd to Nick M. Had narrowed it down to Hannon's horses

he stays baby ![:D]

Indeed he does. Will Nick M be right that he will go 10f?