Horse Antepost
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SWANSONG
1 750993 Akarem K R Burke 6 90 99 99 0-7 3-21
2 094932 Bandama Mrs A J Perrett 4 90 99 100 1-9 0-7
3 0-7008 Bazart K R Burke 5 87 98 88 0-2 0-1
4 331811 Black Rock M A Jarvis 3 Philip Robinson 97 99 91 0-2 1-1
5 425507 Chicken Soup D J Murphy 5 95 89 71 1-6 0-0
6 463244 Chocolate Caramel Mrs A J Perrett 5 84 89 74 0-3 1-11
7 21/442 Cutting Crew W R Swinburn 6 95 102 95 0-3 2-5
8 21-072 Dollar Chick M Johnston 3 73 78 80 0-2 0-1
9 438251 Dzesmin R C Guest 5 83 89 70 5-10 3-11
10 113613 Esthlos J Jay 4 Luke Morris(3) 83 94 83 0-1 1-3
11 513-32 Gabier G L Moore 4 82 88 59 0-0 0-6
12 7-1201 Greek Envoy T P Tate 3 103 109 93 0-1 1-2
13 098084 Happy As Larry D J Murphy 5 67 74 58 0-4 0-0
14 333112 Harry Tricker Mrs A J Perrett 3 93 97 79 1-2 0-2
15 1-0641 Heaven Knows W J Haggas 4 R Hills 94 103 98 0-2 0-1
16 623198 Heron Bay G Wragg 3 Steve Drowne 105 103 103 1-3 1-4
17 90-554 Inchloch B G Powell 5 82 89 84 1-3 0-3
18 619295 John Terry Mrs A J Perrett 4 91 98 92 1-4 1-6
19 -28076 Kings Quay J J Quinn 5 86 88 67 0-8 0-4
20 078471 La Estrella D E Cantillon 4 84 83 64 0-1 2-9
21 /31-67 Lake Toya Saeed Bin Suroor 5 100 97 85 0-0 0-3
22 624238 Lundys Lane A M Balding 7 Francis Norton 97 106 102 2-19 0-5
23 211471 Malt Or Mash R Hannon 3 97 105 105 2-2 1-2
24 324740 Mighty Moon J OReilly 4 James OReilly(5) 71 86 57 0-7 0-6
25 221448 Minkowski J E Hammond 4 99 96 0-0 1-2
26 143162 Music Review R A Fahey 3 78 80 70 1-1 2-8
27 11-241 New Guinea Saeed Bin Suroor 4 103 106 94 0-5 2-4
28 030016 Night Crescendo Mrs A J Perrett 4 94 103 87 0-5 0-0
29 266441 Oh Glory Be R Hannon 4 86 98 87 0-2 2-7
30 830134 Philanthropy K A Ryan 3 N Callan 90 96 75 1-2 1-4
31 111 Pippa Greene P F I Cole 3 Jamie Spencer 97 101 63 0-0 1-1
32 416 Prairie Tiger N J Vaughan 3 80 83 46 0-1 0-0
33 /12-55 Rampallion Saeed Bin Suroor 4 96 103 103 0-1 0-2
34 599120 Realism M W Easterby 7 89 95 88 4-17 0-6
35 344122 Sanbuch L M Cumani 3 99 108 109 1-4 0-3
36 089005 Spume D J Murphy 3 65 69 68 0-3 0-0
37 3-6612 St Savarin R A Fahey 6 95 101 55 1-9 1-8
38 42211 Tropical Strait D W P Arbuthnot 4 86 66 49 0-0 2-3
39 211210 Turn Of Phrase N Wilson 8 75 79 64 2-7 4-13
40 54706- Wingman G L Moore 5 76 - - 0-8 0-12
41 1-8825 Young Mick G G Margarson 5 103 111 45 2-8 6-13
fyi - very little rain due in the next week so some at the top of the market might be taken on eg pippa ;)
opinions welcome
1 750993 Akarem K R Burke 6 90 99 99 0-7 3-21
2 094932 Bandama Mrs A J Perrett 4 90 99 100 1-9 0-7
3 0-7008 Bazart K R Burke 5 87 98 88 0-2 0-1
4 331811 Black Rock M A Jarvis 3 Philip Robinson 97 99 91 0-2 1-1
5 425507 Chicken Soup D J Murphy 5 95 89 71 1-6 0-0
6 463244 Chocolate Caramel Mrs A J Perrett 5 84 89 74 0-3 1-11
7 21/442 Cutting Crew W R Swinburn 6 95 102 95 0-3 2-5
8 21-072 Dollar Chick M Johnston 3 73 78 80 0-2 0-1
9 438251 Dzesmin R C Guest 5 83 89 70 5-10 3-11
10 113613 Esthlos J Jay 4 Luke Morris(3) 83 94 83 0-1 1-3
11 513-32 Gabier G L Moore 4 82 88 59 0-0 0-6
12 7-1201 Greek Envoy T P Tate 3 103 109 93 0-1 1-2
13 098084 Happy As Larry D J Murphy 5 67 74 58 0-4 0-0
14 333112 Harry Tricker Mrs A J Perrett 3 93 97 79 1-2 0-2
15 1-0641 Heaven Knows W J Haggas 4 R Hills 94 103 98 0-2 0-1
16 623198 Heron Bay G Wragg 3 Steve Drowne 105 103 103 1-3 1-4
17 90-554 Inchloch B G Powell 5 82 89 84 1-3 0-3
18 619295 John Terry Mrs A J Perrett 4 91 98 92 1-4 1-6
19 -28076 Kings Quay J J Quinn 5 86 88 67 0-8 0-4
20 078471 La Estrella D E Cantillon 4 84 83 64 0-1 2-9
21 /31-67 Lake Toya Saeed Bin Suroor 5 100 97 85 0-0 0-3
22 624238 Lundys Lane A M Balding 7 Francis Norton 97 106 102 2-19 0-5
23 211471 Malt Or Mash R Hannon 3 97 105 105 2-2 1-2
24 324740 Mighty Moon J OReilly 4 James OReilly(5) 71 86 57 0-7 0-6
25 221448 Minkowski J E Hammond 4 99 96 0-0 1-2
26 143162 Music Review R A Fahey 3 78 80 70 1-1 2-8
27 11-241 New Guinea Saeed Bin Suroor 4 103 106 94 0-5 2-4
28 030016 Night Crescendo Mrs A J Perrett 4 94 103 87 0-5 0-0
29 266441 Oh Glory Be R Hannon 4 86 98 87 0-2 2-7
30 830134 Philanthropy K A Ryan 3 N Callan 90 96 75 1-2 1-4
31 111 Pippa Greene P F I Cole 3 Jamie Spencer 97 101 63 0-0 1-1
32 416 Prairie Tiger N J Vaughan 3 80 83 46 0-1 0-0
33 /12-55 Rampallion Saeed Bin Suroor 4 96 103 103 0-1 0-2
34 599120 Realism M W Easterby 7 89 95 88 4-17 0-6
35 344122 Sanbuch L M Cumani 3 99 108 109 1-4 0-3
36 089005 Spume D J Murphy 3 65 69 68 0-3 0-0
37 3-6612 St Savarin R A Fahey 6 95 101 55 1-9 1-8
38 42211 Tropical Strait D W P Arbuthnot 4 86 66 49 0-0 2-3
39 211210 Turn Of Phrase N Wilson 8 75 79 64 2-7 4-13
40 54706- Wingman G L Moore 5 76 - - 0-8 0-12
41 1-8825 Young Mick G G Margarson 5 103 111 45 2-8 6-13
fyi - very little rain due in the next week so some at the top of the market might be taken on eg pippa ;)
opinions welcome
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Replies: 110
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Horsesforcourses 05 Nov 20:20
What do think of Badama for this one Plat? Forecast looks good for him and runs off same mark as when second lto over c+d. Few of the market principles might not turn up unless the going changes which could make the 16s look generous... |
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initial shortlist, subject to change and very much weather dependent
7 21/442 Cutting Crew W R Swinburn 6 95 102 95 0-3 2-5 10 113613 Esthlos J Jay 4 Luke Morris(3) 83 94 83 0-1 1-3 12 7-1201 Greek Envoy T P Tate 3 103 109 93 0-1 1-2 14 333112 Harry Tricker Mrs A J Perrett 3 93 97 79 1-2 0-2 15 1-0641 Heaven Knows W J Haggas 4 R Hills 94 103 98 0-2 0-1 19 -28076 Kings Quay J J Quinn 5 86 88 67 0-8 0-4 23 211471 Malt Or Mash R Hannon 3 97 105 105 2-2 1-2 25 221448 Minkowski J E Hammond 4 99 96 0-0 1-2 30 830134 Philanthropy K A Ryan 3 N Callan 90 96 75 1-2 1-4 31 111 Pippa Greene P F I Cole 3 Jamie Spencer 97 101 63 0-0 1-1 32 416 Prairie Tiger N J Vaughan 3 80 83 46 0-1 0-0 33 /12-55 Rampallion Saeed Bin Suroor 4 96 103 103 0-1 0-2 35 344122 Sanbuch L M Cumani 3 99 108 109 1-4 0-3 36 089005 Spume D J Murphy 3 65 69 68 0-3 0-0 37 3-6612 St Savarin R A Fahey 6 95 101 55 1-9 1-8 |
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my fancy is heaven knows better on soft ground but has got form on gd/fm and the way he won at newbury over 1m2f only taken the lead in the last 100yds so the 1m4f will really suit and think he is a big player
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backed him lto starry and dont be fooled with his winning margin, he hacked up. howevere i wouldnt be touching him on g/f. gl
hfc, threw a lot of money at this horse and if johnny cant get him up to win i dont know who will. good few in the race wholl be leaving it late too. obviously well handicapped and should be on the shortlist but he's in my bad books X-( ;) |
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Harry tricker for me if the ground stays fast
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Malt Or Mash - 1.5pts e/w @ 12s. Went up 4lbs for the win lto but still holds a few of these (including Badama) and I like his attitude. Just hope he turns up now...
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Malt or Mash = Max Bet.
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looks a good race, Kings Quay is also entered at Wincanton and will probably run there.
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If softer it would be St Savarin but on g/f Heron Bay has some of the best form in this race, notably his beating of Filios at RA, the pair clear, and this will be a much easier task than his 2 subsequent runs. He's a group horse anyway innit. Could do with a comment that he's deffo going for this so small play to start...
16/1 muchos grassyass |
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AR - if you like him and have a copy of the RP, check out the antepost markets page - sure I saw one firm is going 25s. At the very least the sponsors are goings 20s for you...
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Well I thought they were earlier...
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:0 Cheers bud, must admit I just flashed oddschecker up for the price. Haven't gone in yet guess I need to look around and thank you v.much for the heads up ! ;)
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Maybe the gamble has started already :^0
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Sponsors showing 16s... Labducks are 20s though...
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Only 12s @ Korals :0
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Just about to mention Lads! Doesn't show on the main page in Oddschecker but if click on the horse's name (for the history) it shows all current prices including some aren't on the main screen. Lads one example... Often find this the case with AP markets.
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See if he runs now worth a tickle for me in case he does cheers HFC.
The MoM / Sanbuch form is also strong my concern was MoM's number of races but he's a tough bugger sure to run well so gl ! |
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No of runs is my main concern but it appears he's been freshened up with this in mind. Sponsors now go 8s from 12s :0
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On his York running Philanthropy has every chance of confirming the form with Sanbuch, and quite possibly has the beating of MOM who is very closely handicapped with the Cumani horse. Neil Callan has been booked and the 25/1 with Korals stands out.
Philanthropy 1pt 25/1. |
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Looked closely at that one DD and agree that 25s does look fairly generous. My only concern was that given the likely field size he probably wont get his own way up front which I felt could comprimise his chances. But given my recent flat form I'm probably way off the mark ;)
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A little late but a market is now up!
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Comments on Tropical Strait anyone?
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Interesting given the trainer AR and his 2nd in the race last year. Hard to assess how good he is though given what hes beaten to date.
Can't believe there's doubt about the participation of MOM if it remains g/f. One of the reasons I like him is because he's won twice on it already ffs! |
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Think Akarem is ready to go with Darley booked. He's unquestionably well-treated, but I wouldn't touch him unless I was told it was going to rain.
As it is, Malt Or Mash really appeals as a progressive type. No idea what Hannon is on about as regards to ground, but for that reason my money remains in my pocket for the time being. |
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Coming round to DD's slection if it remains g/f. 3yr olds off a light wieght do well in this although not sure who will be on board if YM stays in. Ryan seems quietly confident about his chances and to a level stake his horses make a nice profit at Doncaster. At least he has some proper form in the book.
Still worried about being taken on up-front but that's mitigated by the price... |
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AR,
Tropical Strait is obviously improving , this is his first season and only run 5 times. Likeable sort and down the bottom of the weights. Apparently going for this so 16.0's on here looks a fair price.Firm ground will suit. He's my bet. |
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Utterly wasted on the main forum so nicked it for here :p
Albert Pickleweed 08 Nov 09:35 Last six runs: 14 of the last 15 winners had won at least once in their last six races. LTO: horses that won LTO, or were beaten less than 4L, have provided 14 of the last 15 winners. Negative 33-1 or bigger have recorded 1 win from 99 qualifiers. Market: 5 of the 15 winners have come from the top three in the betting; there have been no winners in the last seven years. Last six runs: horses that failed to win at least one of their last six races have provided just 1 winner from 89 qualifiers Course LTO: horses that raced at Doncaster LTO have provided just 1 winner from 64 runners. Distance LTO: runners dropping in trip have provided just 1 winner from 60 qualifiers for a loss General Favourites (inc. joints): there have been 2 winning favourites from 17; backing all selections would have made a small loss. In a big field handicap these stats are fairly normal. Age: Three year olds have provided 8 winners from 93 runners Four year olds have provided 4 winners from 119 runners Five year olds have provided 2 winners from 52 runners Six year olds and older have provided 1 winner from 69 runners The front end of the betting market has had a poor record in recent years, which is perhaps no surprise considering the large field and competitive nature of the race. Positives to focus on included horses that won or finished within 4L of Of the winner LTO. These runners have been14 times more likely to win than horses beaten 4L or more. Applying this trend should narrow down the field by around half, which in this type of race is a great starting point. If we combined this stat with horses that have finished in the first four in their last two runs, backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit, In terms of age groups, three year olds have by far the best record. My short list are Malt Or Mash Black Rock Pippa Greene :0 |
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gl with Tropical, SD.
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Shortlist of just two now AR :0
Just hope the forecast showers arrive so MoM runs... Still can't believe one of the few runners to have won on g/f (twice!) could be doubtfall without a shower. |
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Just added another pt e/w on MoM @ 8s NRNB. More I look, more I like him. Now one of my biggest bets of the seasion which is rather ironic given it's the final day...
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I'm just around the corner and whilst it's a bit overcast and rain is forcast it doesn't look like raining at all. Course looks incredibly well and if it doesn't change it looks as if it will be safe quick good ground. Fabulous surface with the new grass. It is though incredibly windy nad if this stays until saturday you will need a pretty strong horse to get home because it is in their faces all the way up the straight.
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lol indeed, but tis a nice voucher :) and a big run looks on the cards. Think they're being a bit ott regarding the ground concerns like you say.
With the merest of tweaks my pick Heron Bay - who would not want any rain at all - also "fits". His last run should be ignored as he was apparently unsuited by the softened good ground, prior to that his 4 L last of nine to Yellowstone in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes would mark him as a serious enough animal off 105 and I'm presuming they haven't kept him for this just for a run around. We shall see but I'm tempted to top up the e/w 20s with some 12s if the ground dries up. gl ! |
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ty for that update lib.
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Took the RP ages to update the decs but ....
1(4) 11-241 New Guinea 12 Saeed Bin Suroor 65 4 9-10 Darryll Holland 105 110 98 2-4 2-4 2(18) 623198 Heron Bay 81 G Wragg 80 3 9-4 Steve Drowne 105 107 107 0-3 1-4 3(20) 7-1201 Greek Envoy 22 T P Tate 75 3 9-2 Micky Fenton 103 115 99 1-2 1-2 4(15) 624238 Lundys Lane 41 A M Balding 44 7 9-2 Francis Norton 97 118 114 0-13 0-5 5(12) /12-55 Rampallion 41 Saeed Bin Suroor 65 4 9-1 Eddie Ahern 96 116 116 0-0 0-2 6(19) 030016 Night Crescendo 14 Mrs A J Perrett 67 4 8-13 Martin Dwyer 94 118 102 1-2 0-0 7(10) 1-0641 Heaven Knows 14 W J Haggas 73 4 8-13 R Hills 94 118 113 1-2 0-1 8(17) 344122 Sanbuch 35 L M Cumani 43 3 8-12 Jimmy Fortune 99 118 119 0-2 0-3 9(14) 425507 Chicken Soup 7 D J Murphy 33 5 8-11 N Callan 92 106 88 0-7 0-0 10(6) 619295 John Terry 14 Mrs A J Perrett 67 4 8-10 Seb Sanders 91 116 110 0-4 1-6 11(13) 211471 Malt Or Mash 35 R Hannon 35 3 8-10 Ryan Moore 97 117 117 1-4 1-2 12(7) 111 Pippa Greene 32 P F I Cole 50 3 8-10 Jamie Spencer 97 113 75 0-0 1-1 13(16) 094932 Bandama 14 Mrs A J Perrett 67 4 8-9 Jim Crowley 90 118 119 1-4 0-7 14(8) 266441 Oh Glory Be 8 R Hannon 35 4 8-9v Richard Hughes 90 117 106 2-4 2-7 15(11) 750993 Akarem 14 K R Burke 67 6 8-9 K Darley 90 118 118 1-13 3-21 16(5) 599120 Realism 35 M W Easterby 29 7 8-8 Paul Mulrennan 89 115 108 3-9 0-6 17(1) 0-7008 Bazart 14 K R Burke 67 5 8-6 Andrew Elliott(3) 87 120 110 0-2 0-1 18(2) 42211 Tropical Strait 39 D W P Arbuthnot 50 4 8-5 Fergus Sweeney 86 89 72 0-0 2-3 19(9) 078471 La Estrella 20 D E Cantillon 100 4 8-3 Chris Catlin 84 108 89 1-6 2-9 20(22) 830134 Philanthropy 42 K A Ryan 26 3 8-3 Paul Hanagan 90 115 94 1-4 1-4 21(23) 438251 Dzesmin 49 R C Guest 29 5 8-2p Duran Fentiman(3) 83 115 96 3-10 3-11 22(3) 90-554 Inchloch 14 B G Powell 63 5 8-1 Dale Gibson 82 116 111 2-6 0-3 23(21) 211210 Turn Of Phrase 29 N Wilson 36 8 7-12b William Buick(3) 75 109 94 2-8 4-13 Happy with my high draw also. |
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why is ryan off philantrophy?
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Assume you mean Callan Plat ;) and I would guess that he can't do the weight judged by recent rides.
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Added some 16s Heron Bay (Billys) to the 20s.
Sit back, cross fingers, say bye bye to the flat season, either way twas a happy season ;) gl all B-) |
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B-) gooooo Luca.
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The Nanny have gone 25/1 Philanthropy which is like a red rag to a bull. Another 0.5 pts e/w :D
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