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Come on chaps, i think we better wait and see what happens nearer the time, Prima Donna, and Kirk are not going to convince each other that their opinions of Steinbeck / SNA are correct, who knows another horse may turn up to spoil the party.
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Push,Only someone like yourself would think poss' Crowded House for the GNS,One thing that horse does have in common with the great Steinbeck is his Fragile relation,IMO S'beck will be no better than C.House
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why should canford cliffs win if he stays, has a bit to find with arcano
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Steinbeck does not have to do much to be a better 3yo than Crowded House.
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why not a gosden horse come along and put them all in there place?
azmeel maybe |
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I am not decrying SNA as a top class colt before anyone comes on in May saying I am. I am giving people a reality check on the poor speed quality of the RPT as a guide to the Guineas and also the different challenge a Guineas takes and the record of Speed types over Staying/Speed types. He may miss the race, run / win or run / lose but a lot of that will depend on the ability of some to get the mile, tactics in the race and who has trained on the best.
The place is littered with winter favs for the 2000 Guineas and 2 yo Champions who didn't do the business in the Guineas .. the last was George Washington and he was special with a sprinters speed stretched to a mile. SNA is a different type altogether to him. |
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Kirk me old mate - you make some very valid points and clearly know a lot about the game, but irrespective of the situation with SNA, I cannot understand why you are so convinced that Steinbeck is such a certainty.
He is just one of about 15-20 realistic candidates who ran last season all of whom are closely matched and have pro's and con's. I'm not saying he can't or won't win , just that your inisistence that he 'is the one' is based more on hope and antepost vouchers, than anything in the form book, and, just like in the Zaynar thread, you seem unable or unwilling to listen to any other point of view. |
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Amen, brother.
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not sure what will win the GNS, but Unclepuncle seems to be bang on the money.
Guaranteed if Kirk had managed to snaffle double fig odds abount SNA(where he clearly missed the boat) then he would plauding him like Pegasus. Sometimes Graham there is another point of view. |
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I agree that Steinbeck is one of several entitled to be on many peoples shortlist; he is my only bet in the race at present and I am only on at 12's. I have no particular allegience with the stable and was unimpressed with his first run. It was the fact that the horse had the well documented lay off but still turned up in a group 1 for his 2nd run coupled by what I saw in the paddock, on the course and the potential improvement that led me to back it. I think that 12's is a fair price when everything is considered. A previous poster remarked that if Kirk had a double figure price on SNA he would be singing a different tune which might be right but I wonder how many people actually have a double figure price on him for the 2000 G? Indeed it would be interesting to know how many horses ran 3 times at 2 yrs, all over a mile and went on to win the guineas? I followed the horse from its first run, backed it for the Derby at 20's prior to the Beresford and did not consider it as a guineas choice because of its programme. That said IF it shows up on guineas day it will probably take a world of beating; total respect for anyone selecting it for the 2000 before the racing post although I would still be tempted to trade out for a profit if I were in your shoes.
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Excellent post lobster, agree with all that.
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Lobster Luck were you at the Champion Stakes meeting ? If yes, what did you make of the Dewhurst field as physical specimens especially Steinbeck? Thanks in advance.
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I have never said Steinbeck is a certainty for the race, though I do believe he is a leading contender along with SNA and Canford Cliffs who is my idea of the winner if he stays which is a leap of faith.
My main points surround the RPT the difference between the types of horses in that and a Dewhurst with regards the Guineas. SNA was the one speed horse in that and we will see if he runs whether he has enough speed to dominate the top milers though I think his participation will depend on how he measures up in late March against his speedy stablemates. To me there would be no shock if he was beaten in the Guineas as history dictates he is well up against it however if he ran and won then he again it would be no shock to me. |
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Kirk,I do agree with most, not all of what you say!
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Lobster Luck, I don't know whether any horse has won the 2000 Guineas after three runs at two, all over a mile, but Dancing Brave won the '86 Guineas after two runs as a juvenile, both over a mile.
As stated previously, I don't agree with Kirk that SNA was the only 'speed' horse in the RPT. Just check out the form and the pedigrees. |
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Like Julian Wilson I will walk naked to the Town Hall if Steinbeck manages to win the Guineas on 1st May....I said like NOT with.
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Although you've been here 8 years but I've never seen you on here I'll remember that....
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Ben, you wouldn't forget that sight in a hurry!
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Prima :D
Maybe he's a she ;/ ;) |
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How many legs will you be using 2 or 3 ?
Punterbaker 29 Jan 20:19 Like Julian Wilson I will walk naked to the Town Hall if Steinbeck manages to win the Guineas on 1st May....I said like NOT with. |
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How many Guineas winners won over 1 mile as 2yos ? 1994 Mister Baileys, 1998 King of Kings, 1997 Entrepreneur. 2009 Sea the stars, in recent years.
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How many won over only 1 mile as a 2yo ?
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.. and in what way does that advertise a horses speed for a Guineas?
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Non of the above Kirk, all had 7f form some even 6f.
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At 2yo ...
Mister Baileys won over 6f, 7f and 8f King Of Kings won over 6f, 6f, 7f and 8f Entrepreneur won over 7f and 8f Sea The Stars won over 7f and 8f However St Nicholas Abbey won over 8f, 8f and 8f, no sub mile speed victories which is extremely unusual, if not a first, for a Guineas favourite. push 30 Jan 10:51 How many Guineas winners won over 1 mile as 2yos ? 1994 Mister Baileys, 1998 King of Kings, 1997 Entrepreneur. 2009 Sea the stars, in recent years. |
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Kirk do you have a 2nd preference incase Steinbeck does not turn up ?
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As previously noted above, the 1986 Guineas winner Dancing Brave won only over a mile as a juvenile. He had more than enough speed to win the Guineas. Turning to the fillies, Hatoof ran only over a mile as a juvenile (she ran three times over that trip) before winning the 1000 Guineas (narrowly, from the speedier Marling).
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It is a rarity you are correct ... is he the next Dancing Brave ... I doubt it.
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push, if he stays I think Canford Cliffs will win.
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Kirk
However St Nicholas Abbey won over 8f, 8f and 8f, no sub mile speed victories which is extremely unusual, if not a first, for a Guineas favourite. No more unusual than Zaynar racing over 2m3/2m5/2m2(assuming Kelso) no sub 2m2 races which is extremly unusual for a Champion Hurdle fav cant recall any champion hurdle winner not prepping over the minimum distance in the same season of victory. Your using similar type negatives for SNA that could be applied to Zaynar you can see them in 1 but not tother. Its amazing how rose coloured ante post specs can blur the vision. |
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Hardly a similar comparison when Zaynar has won over course and trip at a Festival and has proven his credentials there. You dont have the same luxury with flat horses they rarely go to a Guineas having not been tried at under the trip before and they rarely have course experience.
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So if the R.Post trophy had been @ Newmarket that would be a big plus & make him a positive as it was Doncaster its a negative?
Both look big wide galloping tracks to me. |
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Sounds to me that Kirk is secretly terrified of SNA turning up at Newmarket and thrashing the field,if he runs he knows it could happen!
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He is covered in my book not terrified at all ....
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Greta post by geoff M.
KSM - Zaynar has not won over the course - the Champion hurdle 2m is a totally different test to the Triumph. As with Steinbeck, I'm not saying Zaynar cannot win, but the way you manipulate the form and history to prove your case would make Tony Blair look like an amateur ;) |
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I have posted facts above which is more than you can claim.
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Well for what its worth, I think that Beethoven 50-1 is better value at the prices against steinbeck 10-1, not that it means hes more likely to win necesarily. Also AOB's recent comments about the horse when he could easily have talked up steinbeck/fencing master who I would have thought would have been there 'untapped potential' stallion prospects to talk up.
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Jamies if you have Hatoofs Guineas on video, i think you will agree Marling was very unlucky not to win the Guineas, her following races proved just how good she was over 1 mile.
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Kirk , thanks for the reply ( Canford Cliffs ) i will be keeping an eye on what O Brien sends over, and if any money comes for Work Force.
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push, I agree about Marling, she should have won the Guineas that year. I'd backed her for the Guineas at 50/1 after her Queen Mary win the previous year - how's that for 'aftertiming'!
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