Horse Antepost
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12 Mar 10
23:57
Joined:
Date Joined:
26 Jun 07
Anybody else like this horse for this race?
Have looked at this race a lot in the last few weeks and have come to the conclusion that DPI has a massive chance
Working on the premise that Mon Mome will be top weight (I dont see the 5 above him lining up) he will carry 11st 8lb. You may say that he has no chance under that weight, and of course the stats would agree with that. However it is quite possible and very likely in my opinion this year that bottom weight could be as high as 10st 10lbs. The Package, currently at number 60 in the list holds this berth.
Given the compression of the handicap in recent years horses towards the top end of the weights have been given much more of a chance, the first 4 home last year carried 11st or more
When you look at the bare ratings of the form I look at those around him and see that he is giving one of the market leaders Niche Market 1lb. I would consider him to be more than a pound better than Niche Market
He is receiving weight from the likes of Vic Venturi, Joe Lively and Black Apalachi - I consider him a better horse than this trio
In fact, on these terms I consider him to be very well in.
Look at his 3 runs this season:
He was given a difficult task first time out in the Old Roan Chase, over a trip what now appears too short for him (who would have thought a horse going as well as he was in an Arkle would be a National horse a few years on???!!!) and he still ran a grand race
He was a close, staying on second to Ferdy's Galant Nuit over 3 and a half miles giving the winner the best part of 2 stone
His then finished a respectable third over 3 miles at Warwick giving Our Vic 4lbs and Miss Mitch 7bs. OV has since won off 152 at Haydock and ran a grand race off 158 a few weeks later. Miss Mitch narrowly failed to beat The Sawyer giving him well over a stone, and TS has since in turn franked that form
DPI has big field form. An obvious touch of class required to win a National. An Aintree victory to his name. Is in form and weight aside has an ideal profile for a National winner. Given how tight the handicap looks in this race I think weight will be less of an issue than ever before
At 40/1 I think he represents a good value bet
Have looked at this race a lot in the last few weeks and have come to the conclusion that DPI has a massive chance
Working on the premise that Mon Mome will be top weight (I dont see the 5 above him lining up) he will carry 11st 8lb. You may say that he has no chance under that weight, and of course the stats would agree with that. However it is quite possible and very likely in my opinion this year that bottom weight could be as high as 10st 10lbs. The Package, currently at number 60 in the list holds this berth.
Given the compression of the handicap in recent years horses towards the top end of the weights have been given much more of a chance, the first 4 home last year carried 11st or more
When you look at the bare ratings of the form I look at those around him and see that he is giving one of the market leaders Niche Market 1lb. I would consider him to be more than a pound better than Niche Market
He is receiving weight from the likes of Vic Venturi, Joe Lively and Black Apalachi - I consider him a better horse than this trio
In fact, on these terms I consider him to be very well in.
Look at his 3 runs this season:
He was given a difficult task first time out in the Old Roan Chase, over a trip what now appears too short for him (who would have thought a horse going as well as he was in an Arkle would be a National horse a few years on???!!!) and he still ran a grand race
He was a close, staying on second to Ferdy's Galant Nuit over 3 and a half miles giving the winner the best part of 2 stone
His then finished a respectable third over 3 miles at Warwick giving Our Vic 4lbs and Miss Mitch 7bs. OV has since won off 152 at Haydock and ran a grand race off 158 a few weeks later. Miss Mitch narrowly failed to beat The Sawyer giving him well over a stone, and TS has since in turn franked that form
DPI has big field form. An obvious touch of class required to win a National. An Aintree victory to his name. Is in form and weight aside has an ideal profile for a National winner. Given how tight the handicap looks in this race I think weight will be less of an issue than ever before
At 40/1 I think he represents a good value bet
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i agree, and is on my shortlist but still the weight putting me off!
fancied this a month ago. the fact he is still 40/1 puts me of a bit
FFT- Well done , feel sorry for those once a year punters who
didn't take the price and are on the s p .
didn't take the price and are on the s p .
I enjoy reading this forum and there are plenty of people on here who come up with interesting ideas and analysis and who help sway my thoughts on races.
FFT is one of the best, keep up the good work.
FFT is one of the best, keep up the good work.
Well done FFT - hadn't seen this thread before. Hope you made plenty
This thread should be in a museum for folks to learn from. Fan**kingtastic.
£16.46 at average of 98s back in Nov after second to Galant Nuit..
Whoooosh
Whoooosh
Superb FFT ! nice one last post aswell (wow)...remember discussing this horses chances in The Paddy Power 4 years ago (i think) who would have thought eh...........
great shout FFT i was on but it was the McCoy factor that swayed me and by the looks of things half the british public have backed it 10/1 sp glad i took the 25 s
Brilliant stuff Far from trouble a fantastic reading! :-)
in all the time ive been on here
best write up bar far none
well done and enjoy winnings
best write up bar far none
well done and enjoy winnings
Well done FFT, remember seeing this run in its 1st chase at Stratford and being interviewed after the race on course, jonjo thought that this would develop into a Gold cup horse and only just got beat by Denman shortly afterwards,congrats.
Nice to see someone tipping something, giving his reasons and winning.
Makes a change on here.
Well done.
Makes a change on here.
Well done.
Well done FFT, great to see someone post something sensible and it work out for them.
FFS !! Just remembered reading this back in november. :(
Old marmite yet again !!
DON'T PUSH IT A SERIOUS GRAND NATIONAL PROSPECT
I suggested after his seasonal debut that DON'T PUSH IT (39) would do much better over a longer trip. He proved me right by staying on tremendously well in the valuable Servo Trophy over nearly three and a half miles at Cheltenham's Open meeting. He fairly stormed home from the last but couldn't quite get here, losing by a rapidly diminishing half length.
Don't Push It was hunted around by Tony McCoy in last place for most of the race but moved up smoothly coming down the hill approaching the third last. Unfortunately he collided in mid air with Russian Trigger jumping that fence and was turned sideways on landing. He had to get going again and did so in style. But for the mishap he would surely have won.
I liked the way Don't Push It navigated his way through traffic, recovered so well from being hampered and stayed on strongly in what was a stamina-sapping race. I can easily picture him doing very well in the Grand National after this performance. Indeed I'd say he's the best Grand National prospect we've seen so far this season.
Don't Push It certainly looks the best Grand National prospect Jonjo O'Neill has had since Clan Royal who ran second and third in the Aintree marathon. Clan Royal was given a very light campaign both seasons he placed in the race and was switched back to hurdles to protect his handicap mark, just as many of the top Irish candidates for the big race are. So I'd bet on Jonjo going the same route with Don't Push It who actually showed smart form over timber last term when he ran second to Fair Along and Big Buck's, two of the top staying hurdlers.
Old marmite yet again !!
DON'T PUSH IT A SERIOUS GRAND NATIONAL PROSPECT
I suggested after his seasonal debut that DON'T PUSH IT (39) would do much better over a longer trip. He proved me right by staying on tremendously well in the valuable Servo Trophy over nearly three and a half miles at Cheltenham's Open meeting. He fairly stormed home from the last but couldn't quite get here, losing by a rapidly diminishing half length.
Don't Push It was hunted around by Tony McCoy in last place for most of the race but moved up smoothly coming down the hill approaching the third last. Unfortunately he collided in mid air with Russian Trigger jumping that fence and was turned sideways on landing. He had to get going again and did so in style. But for the mishap he would surely have won.
I liked the way Don't Push It navigated his way through traffic, recovered so well from being hampered and stayed on strongly in what was a stamina-sapping race. I can easily picture him doing very well in the Grand National after this performance. Indeed I'd say he's the best Grand National prospect we've seen so far this season.
Don't Push It certainly looks the best Grand National prospect Jonjo O'Neill has had since Clan Royal who ran second and third in the Aintree marathon. Clan Royal was given a very light campaign both seasons he placed in the race and was switched back to hurdles to protect his handicap mark, just as many of the top Irish candidates for the big race are. So I'd bet on Jonjo going the same route with Don't Push It who actually showed smart form over timber last term when he ran second to Fair Along and Big Buck's, two of the top staying hurdlers.
Nice on eJC looked at this thread with the intention of putting the same article up myself!
Mordin.
Like him or loathe him, he's a friend to the punter.
Mordin.
Like him or loathe him, he's a friend to the punter.
Well I got really lucky this year. Having loaded up my scattergun with ammo I noticed that dpi and cant buy time had both drifted to 60s on the antepost market. I thought why not back the two of them and when mccoy decides what to ride I will lay it off as its odds will contract and lay the other one off as close to the odds id taken...sounds ok? Well mcccoy didnt announce officially which horse he was going to ride till the thursday morning and by this time the antepost market had closed and couldnt lay off on that market so just decided to let them both run for me.
simply brilliant. WD FFT. Wish I'd read this before the big race.
Excellent call and appraisal, FFT!
A gallon of SVOTRWL (or whatever it is!) whenever you like (and I neither saw this thread beforehand nor backed the 'oss).
A gallon of SVOTRWL (or whatever it is!) whenever you like (and I neither saw this thread beforehand nor backed the 'oss).
Great call FFT, I remember reading this and thinking, too much weight ..nah! Well done.
Great call FFT always read your selections with interest..well done again .. (Fav backer !! )
great tipping and the luckiestr or best part of it, was that you your homework before its lamentable run in the pertemps final which should have made it another 100 to 1 winner yesterday and not the laughable 10,s
great analysis - how much did you collect, if I may ask?
67 posts on this thread and just one asking about the money,dc.
downallstar 14 Nov 14:06
Would any of ye give DPI a chance in the national?
Far From Trouble 14 Nov 14:07
mark too high for the National down imo
This thread has me Seething. :|
Would any of ye give DPI a chance in the national?
Far From Trouble 14 Nov 14:07
mark too high for the National down imo
This thread has me Seething. :|
I can imagine ,but never let anyone change it,if a slight doubt,lower the stake ;)l
downy, sorry :(
I do remember posting that, just hope that it wouldn't have been remembered :^0
JB Smoove - I had 1 point on at 40/1, so I collected 41pts. Hope this helps ;)
I do remember posting that, just hope that it wouldn't have been remembered :^0
JB Smoove - I had 1 point on at 40/1, so I collected 41pts. Hope this helps ;)
Never seen so much fuss over someone who tipped a fav ;) LOLOLOL :)
Well done FFT.
Great analysis and a good tip. Glad it worked out well for you.
Great analysis and a good tip. Glad it worked out well for you.
Congrats FFT, of course, me being a right shrewdie, threw the beast out as soon as I saw the weight it was carrying. :(
I think it qualified on most stats I considered, but I had to draw a line somewhere.
:)
I think it qualified on most stats I considered, but I had to draw a line somewhere.
:)
Sorry for bringing that up fft :D
Don't worry you nor anyone else didn't put me off him, managed that all by myself :^0
Don't worry you nor anyone else didn't put me off him, managed that all by myself :^0
Yeah, that was mid November after he'd come second off 151, was only going up. Knew he'd be over 11st then so dismissed him almost instantaneously
Come March and then I look at the weights and see hardly anything under 11st that I like and then this boy is sitting there with the low end of 11st and a bit on his back, and some damn fine form
Goes to show a lot can happen in a few months :^0
Come March and then I look at the weights and see hardly anything under 11st that I like and then this boy is sitting there with the low end of 11st and a bit on his back, and some damn fine form
Goes to show a lot can happen in a few months :^0
Just picked up on this myself. Well done mate hope you kopped plenty
downy correct, don't think he'll ever get over it tbh 
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