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Lay The Arse Of Imperial Commander

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Replies: 119
By:
CVByrne
When: 07 Apr 10 00:34
I think Kauto would have won in 08 bar the poor tactics, and ploughing into the second last. So you can then say Denman was the exception, which is fair since he is only ever trained to the minute for 2 races a season.

I'm leaning towards backing IC at close to evens being a good bet.
By:
Far From Trouble
When: 07 Apr 10 00:44
Kauto had an absolute humdinger of a Gold Cup and mad a huge mistake 2 out iirc, and Our Vic had a relatively easy Ryanair victory

Denman had his problems last season, and he clearly wasn't the same horse then

Imperial Commander won his Gold Cup well, and imo didn't have that hard a race.


The more I look at this the more I think it's a penalty kick.

Although What A Friend has been aimed at this since the Lexus, couldn't beat Denman receiving 22lbs in the Henessey, and beat Money Trix half a length in the Lexus

Nacarat ran well enough in the KG with Imperial behind, but Kempton would appear not to be to Imperial Commander's liking, and very much Nacarat's cup of tea. I'd fancy IC to reverse that form here

I see no reason why Carruthers and Calgary Bay should reverse the form.
By:
yaboya
When: 07 Apr 10 00:52
I personally don't think you can win a Gold Cup without having a hard race no matter how easy it looks. In fact, I'm not sure you can win any race at the Cheltenham Festival without putting in a huge effort.
Big Bucks victory at Newbury the day of the Hennessy was one of the easiest I've ever seen in a top class race, yet Nicholls said afterwards he blew more than Denman after his victory off top weight later on that day.
Of course Imperial Commander should win but horses are not machines and things that should happen don't always occur.
By:
Sacred Kingdom
When: 07 Apr 10 01:59
Bar Exotic Dancer, the last 11 horses in the Gold Cup to post a RPR of 150+ were all beaten ;) IMO Nacarat total and complete NAP.
By:
downallstar
When: 07 Apr 10 03:00
Pocket talk is amazing.
By:
Fistfulofdollars
When: 07 Apr 10 07:21
I remember going to Aintree the year Dawn Run had won the gold cup so memorably....this was a 3 horse race..D Run long odds on...I backed wayward lad....the 40/1 outsider was beau ranger....Dawn Run fell and W lad having looked all over the winner was beaten into second still think Bradley giving it a pull 3 out when cruising cost momentum)....the G cup can take a lot out of a horse.
By:
enjbenjy
When: 07 Apr 10 09:44
I think evens is a fair enough price when taking into account the doubts. Let's face it if this race was after a 3 month break he would be 2/5 to win.
By:
ewok2006
When: 07 Apr 10 09:47
lmao ^thicket!
By:
enjbenjy
When: 07 Apr 10 10:00
What you mean?
By:
ewok2006
When: 07 Apr 10 10:09
Comparing this price being a gift based on what it'd be when conditions suit - thicket!
By:
ewok2006
When: 07 Apr 10 10:10
Ok, fair price rather than gift.
By:
enjbenjy
When: 07 Apr 10 10:15
Yeah I say it's fair because you know the doubts before placing the bet. You're basically taking odds on whether you think IC will run to form or not. On official ratings he can run 15lb below form and still win. Evens is very fair taking this into the equation.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 07 Apr 10 10:27
most people (except the likes of me) were saying Denman was a steering job in this last year. Time and again we see horses run badly at Aintree following their exertions in the GC.
I backed IC to win the GC but would not touch him in this. I am concerned for the horse's welfare more than anything. I think he should be back at the stable resting up now. Should not be being asked to race again.
The race tomorrow is competitive, it's never a penalty kick, and as others say IC is a horse who runs his best fresh. I think running him again at Aintree is a poor decision.
By:
thedemps
When: 07 Apr 10 10:58
Would you back him at 4/1?
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 07 Apr 10 10:59
he is a monster. really is a steal at evens.
By:
cherry
When: 07 Apr 10 11:23
All donations gratefully received AR.
NB It was my nap lto.
By:
thedemps
When: 07 Apr 10 13:08
Nigel Twiston-Davies has no fears about the track as his Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander bids to follow up in the totesport Bowl at Aintree on Thursday.

The nine-year-old was a brilliant winner of the blue riband event at last month's Festival, his sixth course victory from a total of seven wins under Rules.

Some would argue he is less effective at other tracks but Twiston-Davies points to this season's Betfair Chase at Haydock, where he was beaten just a nose by Kauto Star, as evidence to the contrary.

Joining Imperial Commander on the opening day of the Grand National meeting will be stablemates and fellow Festival winners Pigeon Island, who lines up in the Red Rum Handicap Chase, and Baby Run, who tackles the giant fences in the Fox Hunters' Chase.

"We're very much looking forward to it. We finished one Festival off with three winners on the final day and they all run on the first day of the next Festival, so it will be interesting," said Twiston-Davies.

"Imperial Commander is in very good form. The owners did take a bit of persuading to let him run again but we're ready to go and we'll see what happens.

"People will say he does most of his winning at Cheltenham but that doesn't worry me at all.

"There wasn't much wrong with his run at Haydock earlier in the season and Haydock is quite similar to Aintree in many ways.

"The only reason he's done most of his winning at Cheltenham is because that's where he runs most, and it's not a bad place to be winning."
By:
Fistfulofdollars
When: 07 Apr 10 14:16
Having been a big IC fan - backing him in a v impressive bumper win at Cheltenham...and the 2m 5f wins....his size and way of running is suited to Cheltenham and not Liverpool imo..on top of this the race is a graveyard or G cup winners..
By:
enjbenjy
When: 07 Apr 10 14:29
I've convinced myself to lump back him. As I've said on another thread last time he ran at Aintree over hurdles he ran up to form as to how good he was back then. I've got no worries about the track. The running well fresh does concern me but he did win 2 races back to back about 3 weeks apart and he did place both at the festival and at Aintree in 2007 albeit with 4 weeks apart.
By:
BarryM
When: 07 Apr 10 14:31
Laying the ar** of him makes sense. I didn't know yoiu could bet on body parts, but I reckon his nose will be the first bit over the line.
By:
thedemps
When: 07 Apr 10 14:35
enjbenjy - agree with everything you said - only worry is the closeness of race to the festival and at 5/6 and EVS I was happy to take the risk
By:
Steeplechasing
When: 07 Apr 10 15:30
IC is a big rangy type, not unlike Denman, and Aintree is a very tight track which might not play to his strengths. It will be a race to watch, for me, and I hope he wins for Bobby Dazzler.
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 07 Apr 10 16:06
Wants to be fresh - won't be

Hard Gold Cup - you do not put in a performance like that without it taking something out of you

Track 1 - very much doubt flat and sharp Aintree will suit him given he's quite a top heavy horse

Track 2 - IC has won 7 races under rules. 6 have been at Cheltenham. All his chase wins have been at HQ.

Afterthought - he was aimed at the Gold Cup and the Gold Cup alone, just as Kauto Star was 2 years ago before turning up here after a hard race and getting beaten.

Inconsistency - only once in his entire life has he won 2 races back to back. When he wins, he is stuffed next time out.

Ground - while he handles good to soft, he isn't best on it imo and may get outpaced when tiring on better going.

Nacarat - aimed at the race, course form when didn't have the pace in the Melling last year, very good on flat and sharp tracks (can't rule out WAF either though)

^^^^^^^^

8 reasons why this quality performer will be beaten
By:
top div
When: 07 Apr 10 16:12
Wasn't Nacarat aimed at the Racing Post chase and had a very hard race there ?.

I agree about IC and have instead backed WAF - mostly due to the fact that Nacarat apart i can't fancy any of the others and Nacarat will surely get taken on for the lead (or pressed for it by Carruthers) and will also not get proper fast ground which suits him best (and he had a hard race in the RP chase).

All in all WAF has to be the bet at the prices.
By:
zilzal1
When: 07 Apr 10 16:26
WAF/Nacarat rfc for me, Nacarat goes in most ground for me and was impressive on very soft ground at Donny a year ago

As i said before i cant see Imperial finishing second, he either wins or runs well below form
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 07 Apr 10 16:30
good shout zz - may take green on win market and lay for a place now

td, he was aimed at the rp, but they still had this in mind for him, knowing he wouldnt be running in any GC's................plus the rp chase leaves more time to get ready for this than GC does, about 3 weeks I think, which is a big deal imo
By:
CVByrne
When: 07 Apr 10 17:48
johnnyrant 07 Apr 10:27
most people (except the likes of me) were saying Denman was a steering job in this last year.


I was all out to oppose Denman last year and went in heavy on Exotic e/w. Sad that the horse was dying as he battled to second.

I think IC at close to evens has to be a good bet and after considering it I'll be backing him
By:
enjbenjy
When: 07 Apr 10 18:55
He won the Ryanair on good to soft.
By:
Youmzain
When: 07 Apr 10 19:13
Imperial Commander a shocking price.
By:
Chad Collins number wan
When: 07 Apr 10 19:26
IC now 11/10 with korals
By:
comeonkautostar
When: 07 Apr 10 19:45
enjbenjy 07 Apr 18:55
He won the Ryanair on good to soft.


And he won a GC on good

So?


Dessie won a GC on heavy; does that mean he was best on heavy?

Imo, given the heavy-topped individual he is, IC would be best on softer ground.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 07 Apr 10 19:58
Its hard for some to accept this, but Imperial Commander has improved and may not be that far short of Kauto's best Gold Cup form. He beat Denman fair and square and there is no guarentee that Kauto would have won had be remembered how to jump - after all Kauto was a bit lucky to beat him at Haydock.
anyway the Gold Cup rather kicked all that "Denman/Kauto are better than Arkle ever was" bilge into touch. I am certain Imperial Commander would not have got Arkle off the bit, and Arkle, although he made a horrid mistake in an early Hennessy and one mistake in 3 Gold Cups, hardly ever made the sorts of complete horlicks of jumping that both Denman and Kauto seem to do with amazing frequency. Not only was Arkle way more talented, he was also a far better jumper.
Of course there will be some who mow claim that Imperial Commander is better than Arkle was too, but we know what that claim would amount to don't we.
By:
__O1
When: 07 Apr 10 20:02
I am one of IC's biggest fans but think this is a mistake to run him. Surely he should have a well deserved rest then take the route next season of Haydock - Lexus - Gold Cup. This horse is all about going fresh. Think the bookies have priced him this way knowing the general public will be all over him. I have him a 5-2 chance in my tissue. I just hope he comes home safe and sound think this is a pointless task.
By:
enjbenjy
When: 07 Apr 10 21:56
He puts his best performance of his career up on good but you think he's better on soft?
By:
thedemps
When: 07 Apr 10 22:10
O mOrOn
I'm not saying he will win for certain as the negatives are well documented but he isn't a 5/2 shot
By:
zilzal1
When: 08 Apr 10 00:16
its Maths silly, if you backed him at anywhere between 8/1 and 20/1 for the gold cup why would you have more than your stake at even money on a suspected rest horse??

he may win, but it aint the call
By:
sj
When: 08 Apr 10 07:40
^agreed cant have a bet in the race myself due to zilzal's point.
By:
the lay preacher
When: 08 Apr 10 07:40
cant see him beating what a friend imo.
By:
Askean
When: 08 Apr 10 09:04
if I was a backer - which I'm not - I'd definitely be worried after reading the owner's thoughts on the other thread
By:
__O1
When: 08 Apr 10 12:22
the Demps we will see if I am a Moron when he drifts out to 7/4 on the course as the money comes for WAF and Nacarat. For the record I consider myself one of IC biggest fans. Some people just dont understand the depth of horse racing. Its not all about ratings Demps.
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