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Cheltenham 2013
Cheltenham 2013
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I hope so Wonders, i persume Conor will have choice between Gevrey Chambertin and Edmund Kean where Pipe to run both, hopefully he stays on Edmund Kean but he has to get Saturday out of the way first
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sure PF, he has bellamy and edgar attached to him but o'farrell would be best
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Imperial Commander ruled out of Gold Cup
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Wonders ..... check the FACTS below
irish, the argument about number of winning favs in that race and that a 5/1 to 10/1 normally shot normally wins the race is incredibly flawed"" 2012 Sprinter Sacre 8/11F 2011 Captain Chris 6to1 2010 Sizing Europe 6to1 2009 Forpadydeplasterer 8to1 2008 Tidal Bay 6to1 2007 My Way De Solzen 7to2 2006 Voy Por Ustedes 15to2 2005 Contraband 7to1 2004 Well Chief 9to1 2003 Azertyuiop 5/4F 2002 Moscow Flyer 11to2 2001 No Race 2000 Tuitchev 8to1 |
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Pipe has an unbelievable record on gambles at cheltenham in handicaps, but you have to keep your eye on the market for it, its hard when you are totally pi55ed, the main races are over and the barmaids are miss worlds, anything over 20-1 from Pipe's dont bother with.
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For the first time, The OFFICIAL Cheltenham Preview Evening will be available to the public LIVE online
Streaming starts Sunday 10 March 19:00 live from Cheltenham Interact and engage with the panelists via Twitter. Tweet your questions to @OLBG with #askOLBG |
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above post will kill a hour sunday seen as no coventry on
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p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y • March 5, 2013 8:27 AM GMT 33/1 NR-NB Hisaabaat.
Would agree with you here PF , I was on it last year, but is it a ground dependent horse? They would still run it if the ground was against it imho as they did at punchestown where it won on heavy. Over the years at Cheltenham I have come to respect and recognise that the term "the ground was just right for it" as spoken by the winning trainers was the most important factor ..... but i dont think that applies in this case. This is a serious spring horse mate. |
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Another I will be on the look out for is LOST GLORY. JP owned, trained by Jonjo O’neil, (Cheltenham’s staying chase master). A bay gelding from New Zealand ,its entered in the staying chase on Tuesday with a current weight of 10st 13lb, the lightest it has ever carried. Last year Lost Glory put up a career best display winning a big handicap chase at Chepstow on ground definitely on the soft side for him. His fourth win in his last five starts. As a result the horse has been put away since October. He’s 14-1 on Tuesday ,and 20-1 for the Byrne Group Chase (carries 10-6 currently over 2m 5f) on Thursday, and 14-1 for the Kim Muir (class 2 , 3 miler+, carries 11st 9lb) later on Thursday if he doesn’t get in elsewhere. Clearly he is ripe to go and AP’s in the wings, for me it will be interesting to see if he gets in with AP upsides. Good Luck
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Poquelin 33/1 one entrie the Byrne
Nrnb |
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Wonder if any kind soul is going to volunteer to run a tipping competition this year?
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2012 Sprinter Sacre 8/11F (6 runners, 8/11,3/1,13/2, 10 bar)
2011 Captain Chris 6to1 (10 runners, 11/4, 7/2, 4/1, 6/1, 17/2, 10 bar) 2010 Sizing Europe 6to1 (12 runners, 5/2,4,6,7,17/2, 14 bar) 2009 Forpadydeplasterer 8to1 (17 runners, 4, 15/2, 8,8, 9, 10 bar) 2008 Tidal Bay 6to1 (14 runners,7/4,6,8,9, 10 bar) 2007 My Way De Solzen 7to2 (13 runners, 10/3,7/2,4,9,12 bar) 2006 Voy Por Ustedes 15to2 (14 runners, 9/2,5,6,7,15/2,8,8,14 bar) 2005 Contraband 7to1 (19 runners 11/4,7,10 bar) 2004 Well Chief 9to1 (16 runners,5/2, 7/2,15/2, 9,11 bar) 2003 Azertyuiop 5/4F (9 runners,5/4, 6,7,7, 10 bar) 2002 Moscow Flyer 11to2 (12 runners,5/2, 4,9/2,11/2,8,10 bar) 2001 No Race 2000 Tuitchev 8to1 (12 runners,7/4,9/2, 5,8, 10 bar) "this year's race is more like last year's race than most previous arkle which have been more competitive, in 5/2, 3/1 the field races with 8 to 10 runners so much of the market is taken up by horses at less than 10/1 the results have been in line with expectations imo" Wonders what are you on ? There has only been two eight to ten runner arkles in the last 13 years, Captain Chris won one at 6/1 (fav was 11/4 and Azertyiop the other at 5/4 fav. Currently there are 12 runners in Tuesdays race. "the statistical significance of it" is that if you had backed every arkle runner between 5/1 and 10/1 for 1 unit you would be over 30 points up. |
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MONKSLAND out of the World HUrdle .... Gutted
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Whispering Gallery trained by John Ferguson is another that has attracted my attention for next week. As a benefit of his remit as Sheikh Mohammed's bloodstock advisor, Ferguson picks up some useful equine material . This Daylami bay gelding was a six time winner on the flat before disappearing off the radar in January 2010. It came back to win over hurdles at Leicester in January 2013 (only given his head at the final flight, the 8/11 favourite tore two and three-quarter lengths clear of Wake Your Dreams at the finish) and Wetherby last month (6 lengths clear), both times the money was down on soft ground. It is in the neptune (20’s), world hurdle (100) and the albert bartlet (33). At Nr-NB these represent value for a very classy horse in form whether or not heavy going will suit him I don’t know, but I imagine if it didn't he'd be pulled out.
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TRAINER Rebecca Curtis has issued a warning to supporters of At Fishers Cross ahead of his run in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham a week on Friday.
Winner of all four of his starts this season, he beat The New One at Cheltenham on trials day. However, all his winning form has come with plenty of cut in the ground and Curtis would like to see plenty of rain, which has been forecast, over the next few days. Curtis said: “He’s in really good form – we’ve never had him better – but the main thing is the ground. He’s not proven on anything other than heavy. “I think the horse would go on good ground but it seems to interrupt his jumping a bit when they go a bit quicker – he can get galloped off his feet. I think he’d be fine on the softer side of good but he wouldn’t want it too quick.” |
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Dunno if anyone else is interested in this statistics cr4pp
 but unearthed this little gem from the Cheltenham Forum ....."All trends correct to 90% over at least the last 10 years. All races covered. Everything covered from blinkers to conditional jockeys to which favourites to avoid. No charge, no catch, no ads. Please enjoy. https://sites.google.com/site/gaultstats/Home" |
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With overnight ground temperatures expected to fall to as low as -5C next Tuesday, the team at Prestbury Park are getting ready to put down frost covers on all vulnerable areas, including the take-offs and landings. And if even colder weather comes into the equation, the entire course will be covered.
However, milder conditions should arrive in time for the last two days of the meeting on Thursday and Friday. "The forecast hasn't really changed since the beginning of the week, which is rain tomorrow then bits and pieces until Monday so we're looking at between 12-14mm," said clerk of the course Simon Claisse. "But it is getting cold at the beginning of next week. We are looking at dawn temperatures on Monday/Tuesday of -3C, -4C. We had -4C yesterday and were schooling horses on the cross-country course by 10am, so it shouldn't be any concern for us. "However, just as a precaution we are using frost covers for take-offs and landings on the chase and hurdle courses for Tuesday. "They will go down on Sunday together with other vulnerable areas and parts of the cross-country course. "If that weather forecast deteriorates by Friday we may take the decision to do a full course deployment on Sunday. It's a little bit early to make that call. "We are geared up to do that as it looks to be a prudent measure given that it is going to turn cold again before getting mild again for Thursday and Friday. There is no frost forecast for the end of next week." The going is described as good to soft, good in places (chase and hurdle courses); good to soft, soft in places (cross country). |
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take it from me irish, a trends approach done well is invaluable
the problem is the media and most people break every rule going  that site is full of information, unfortunately (fortunately ) a lot of it is a load of old sh1te |
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RSA betting suspended this morning .... anyone know why ? (Dynaste non runner ?)
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Evens Sprinter Sacre to Coral on-line and telephone customers, upto a max £20. 1/4 in the betting shops!
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Hope you got on 10/1 Long Run with Hills the other day!
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anyone weather at Cheltenham today
Bad ? Raining ? |
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dull cloudy a coulpe of slight showers fatty
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Cheers
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Almost finished the card for Tuesday at Cheltenham. No Secrets, trained by David Pipe arouses a great deal of interest. Its entered in the staying chase handicap on Tuesday carrying 10st 2lb, the lowest race weight its ever carried, and is currently 16-1. I have backed this each way at this price nr-nb. I will be praying it gets in this Class 1 race at the weights. Its also in the Coral Cup Wednesday (unlikely to get in with 10st 2lb again) and the Kim Muir on Thursday at 14-1 (carrying 10-10 but again unlikely to get in). This horse did nothing wrong in its last two races, both class 3 over 3 miles carrying 11st 4lb and 11st 9lb to wins in soft and heavy ground. I will watch the betting on this one, if it drifts I wont bother anymore, if however there are moves for it on the day I for one will be playing again in the ring. Good Luck anyways lads.
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woodmanchester • February 16, 2013 9:49 PM GMT
"Zarkandar won okay but dont fancy him to win Champion Hurdle." phew |
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ferguson .... county hurdle for cotton mill
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GRAND CRUS out , scoped badly this morning
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i know nothing about horses... except how they taste
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It's a bit like shreded lamb
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Woody expert on cooking now
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Has anyone not had a score on Sprinter Sacre at evens. If not, why not? Must be one of the best value bets of the year, so far
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id guess because most people dont have accounts left with them woody
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From the Betfair Cheltenham preview
Day one Supreme novices P Nicholls Dodging bullets decent chance highest rated 156 7/4 My Tent or yours terrible price flat bred speed horse may not get up the hill Bromley Jezki McManus (only 9th in the bumper though) Un Atout only won in small fileds form not worked out G Elliot Mozoltov go well at a big race Arkle Bromley Simonsig opposable at odds on Overturn street fighter McCain Overturn would prefer G2S or better (soft forecast) Overturn higher rated hurdler Champion hurdle Couch Hurricane Fly terricle price 9YO Couch Zarkander solid ew Rock on ruby prefer better ground probably front run Bromley hurricane fly if slowly run speed horse G Elliot hurricane fly form not worked out JLT McCain Our Mick is in great nick ran well last year comes there fresh Best bets Bromley Jezki supreme nov couch the jurys nephew in the last melodic rendevouz supreme Nicholls zarkander best chance McCain overturn all the way Elliot Mozoltov ew Day two Neptune Nicholls said Ruby is confident in Pont Alexander Couch Pont Alexander banker Bromley Pont Alexander hard to beat RSA chase Dynaste also declared in the Jewson Couch Houblon Des Obeaux 33/1 ew Super Duty 5/1 now go off much shorter Champion bumper Nicholls Fascino Rustico expensive purchase needs decent ground Elliot Blackmail Tony Martin Day Three Jewson Nicholls Third intention 16/1 ew value Bromley Captain Conan working really well, classy horse not quick enough to beat Dynaste if he runs here Ryanair chase Nicholls First Lieutenant will take a lot of beating if he runs (7/2 nr no bet) Couch Cue card doubtful stayer Bromley Like Sizing Europe if he runs. Don't fancy Riverside Theatre Couch First Lieutenant McCain Champion Court ew Elliot First Lieutenant World hurdle Bromley Oscar Whisky prefers flat track Reve De Sivola wants a bog Bromley Smad Place 3rd last year worked best he has all season A King fancies him Nicholls Tempted to run Wonderful Charm young improving horse Couch Fancies Oscar Whisky. Peddlers cross will trade shorter Pertemps Nicholls Sam Winner well handicapped, ready to run for his life Day Four Triumph Nicholls Far West working well with Zarkandar great chance Ruby likes him too one of our best chances at the meeting Elliot Our Conor might get outpaced early McCain Hidden Justice ew Bromley 3 horse race - Far West shown speed & stamina, lots of experience Rolling Star stable confidence very high Our Conor hugely impressive Couch Our Conor might not get up the hill Albert Bartlett Couch Champagne Fever working very well Bromley Utopie Des Bordes small ew Henderson's only entry Bromley At Fishers Cross great form Nicholls Aaim To Prosper lively outsider. likes At Fishers Cross Elliot Rule The World fancied (nr no bet as declared in other races) Mccain likes Gevrey Chambertin ew, but will probably run in the Martin Pipe race Gold cup Nicholls Silviniaco Conti made rapid improvement not much between the top 3 Couch Bobs Worth bomb proof 4/4 at Cheltenham, Hennesy is a great trial McCain Sir Des Champs won at the last 2 festiva;s, improve for the trip Bromley Sir Des Champs false price on reputation needs better ground 2 horse race Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti Elliot thinks it's between Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti Foxhunters Elliot Salsify nap of the meeting won't come off the bridle Best bet of the week Nicholls Wonderful charm ew if he runs world hurdle Bromley Sam winner Pertemps Final Couch Salubrious Martin pipe Elliot Salsify Foxhunters McCain Overturn Arkle Chase Worst fav of the week Bromley My Tent or Yours Supreme Nov Hrd & Hurricane Fly champion hurdle Couch Dynaste either RSA or Jewson Nicholls & McCain Captain Conan Jewson Nov Chase Elliot Bally casey Albert Bartlett Nov Hurdle |
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great work stow thanks
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if couch says Dynaste worst FAV thats my mind made up maximum bet, been to 4 previews hes done couldnt get R/F on boat race remember when he said Tidal Bay cant win the Arkle wony get round Nicholls fav best bet of the week dont know why he gets invited.
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went to a preview evening in galway several years ago, a cheltenham jockey in attendance
he was specifically asked what were his chances in the arkle after deflecting the question twice he was pursued to the point of embarrassment he said his mount had a problem on soft ground on an undulating track taking fences at speed the next obvious question was "why is it going to cheltenham then" but it was never asked he won the arkle, and i wouldn't go near one of them preview nights again |
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... anyway lads good luck on the week
its soft going now, the fingers are crossed for tuesday's meeting, the covers are down apparently but if frost gets into the ground that will be that! I'm on Sunnyhill boy, Whispering Gallery , Lost Glory, Bostons Angel, No Secrets, Hisaabaat, Blackmail, Zarkander.... The lay of simonsig would be a nice bonus If a few of them do happen to win thats the flights, the car and the hotel paid for but a postponement would be tragic. . |