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Oaks, early betting
Oaks, early betting
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bet molly and bridge ruth outright.
tonight i like seals babe at 11/2, heats my lady in the first and droopys hope is big at 11/10. however, last night nothing outside in 5 or 6 won ( i dont think). i know its a railer but ultimately it is drawn 6, with a poor drawn and bias concerns i cant take evens. if it gets 6/4 ish on the machine later with wides not really lifting a leg i may chance it. |
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think Ruth at 4/5 is a good bet tonight, is different class to the rest over 4 bends in race.
Good luck tonight Addy |
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Trap 1 in both 830 and 9pm, value prices
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Well done tonight Addy; great run from Molly again tonight
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bridge ruth
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wd addy
nice run 28.88 looking at the other times. |
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only watched ruths race
just seen molly won vwd addy g/l |
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Congratulations Addy, well pleased for you
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Well done addy great little bitch gl
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Well done Molly loves the don
 And hope all goes well with Mrs Addy |
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thanks lads, over the moon with it although havent seen the race - tried to get the wife to hold on with all sorts of contractions but had to get up the hospital, left literally 10 minutes before molly race. back now, bit of shut eye, back up there first thing in the morning for round 2, stubborn little blighter wont come out
 tough enough draw next race though, suppose 3 going through is the saving grace and if we do go through some decent animals got to go out. 4 winners in the race i think. |
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Tell her if she don't hurry up, you will lock Richard Birch in the room for 24 hours of stories
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do you think Birchy has a story about when he gave birth, and he took a massive price on it
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Seems like Loner still not getting home at Wimbledon and said was going to back 10/1 Droopys Hope, who beat Loner on merit recently. However, with Dublin on the agenda didnt get round to the Hope bet. Still, much more hopeful of my original bet with Ruth now and gave a 40/1 shout to Pinky, who won her heat.
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woody how would u price up droopys hope heat?
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Dont like saying really Bookie coz get stick for opening my mouth too soon, just at the mention of a dog's name sometimes.
I will say, looks a 2-dog race to me, with Hope a strong fav. If breaking like the heats, should be in front of and avoid a knock off Molly in the early stages and i fancy her very strongly to catch Skate. I reckon maybe around 4/6 Hope and 9/4 Skate. Think you could get most prices youre looking for about the others, oops, husha my mouth!  |
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Looking forward most to the Loner/Ruth clash though. Think it will be much closer this time, than when they last met, in front of the Sky cameras.
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chunks of early in this race woody, odds on droopys hope in 4 with 4 heat winners in the field looks very very skinny.
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It does Addy and maybe i've underestimated your Molly slightly but Hope in the form of her life and priced-up from the class point of view. A line through Loner (who outpointed Skate at Vue) gives her the clear edge. Not saying you may not get 8/11 odd on or thereabouts on here, but i think 4/6 could be a reasonable sp guide, but that's just my opinion. If what youre saying is right, maybe you get some levels-you-devils on here
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not so much molly when i just looked at the race, put her in a 9/2 chance, and i couldnt say i fancied anything specifically, but there is just stacks of early on hopes inner. i like a hope a lot as a dog and i think outright she has a great chance but she will have to do everything right at the boxes and fly out as anything 1-5 could lead. regardless of how good she is, think there are enough concerns with her draw and quality of race to say she shouldnt be odds on.
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just think there is a very real chance hope doesnt make the bend with a clear thats all, if she does she probably wins.
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Addy, you say Hope has to do everything right at the boxes, but i'm not so sure. She didnt when beating Loner and i dont see any Loner in this line up. Only trouble not qualifying, i think, is if your Molly whacks her. To be honest, i really dont rate Barbie or Sherrys too highly. Appreciate your opinion though, so maybe 4/5?
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we'll see and look for prices :-)
difference when she beat loner is she had rails and loner was always going to take bridge ruths ground. diva didnt run too well and wallis said both his would come on for the run. there was no immediate pressure on hope at the boxes or on the run up. this race i think hope has a lot of early to clear to get to the rails. barbie and sherrys arent good enough to beat hope in a clean run 4 bends but if one gets a ping and hope is only average away they might give hope a bump is all im saying. to play odds on i wouldnt want too many concerns, 4/6 hope id worry about the 4 box id worry about the early around it. you may well be right price wise, and if you are i'll be laying thats all, good luck anyway with whatever you do. |
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Thanks Addy but not betting in the race unless you wanna give me 2/1 Hope?
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Oh, and dont think Barbie nor Sherrys will ping either
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if hope is 2/1 id be betting her myself
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Cheers for ur thoughts woody, i really like this hope and I do think she is the class dog in race, but I can just see agg! All got early and middle, so it's whoever traps for me, I thought Molly ran very well, it's a good comp
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I've had a fair bet on hope at 10/1 hills, but if hope is odds on or even a litte odds on will be layin to get abit of stake back
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I mean odds against
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The terminology of laying odds on or odds against confuses me too sometimes Danny. Think if you lay at 1/2 instead of 2/1 your liability would be less. Price doesnt matter as long as it gets beat though, you would still only win your stake no matter what the price. Have i got that correct?
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Let's say you want to lay to win £100
£100 @ 2/1 - your liability = £200 £100 @ 1/2 - your liability = £50 that's without bringing commission into it |
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Thanks PF, thought so. Point i was trying to make was price dont affect your winnings if your correct predicting a loser. It's if it wins you have to fork out coz of the bigger liability at the bigger odds?
Still wrapping my head around some things like this. Never been, nor would like to be, a bookie, it's alien to me, being no good with numbers. You can count all the bets ive ever laid on the fingers of your right hand |
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Ok well I have hope Antepost at a massive 10/1, my view is reaches the final and lay off! But hopes heat looks like it cud be agg, so I will have to lay abit off now!
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Okay Danny but if Hope 9/2 to back, what price to lay? By the very dynamics of the exchanges, its always bigger, so youre in effect backing against yourself at worse than current odds?
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Il will lay off hope on its heat price be about 6/4 I rekon
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Sorry Danny, i know im just a simple tongue-tied Mancunian but what if you do as you say and lay Hope in the semis, she wins so you lose. Even though she's in the final then, say she loses there, doesnt that mean youve lost twice?
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Hi woody, don't forget I got 10/1. So if in final will be short price, so I can still lay abit off and still be in profit ;)
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Draw for semis:
1 Skate 2 Tilly 3 Ruth 4 Velvet 5 Sherrys 6 Hope 1 Forest 2 Scramble 3 Dot 4 Loner 5 Triangle 6 Cavan |
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Two very good semi finals
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tricky draw for Hope
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