PGA Championship early thoughts

Aug 7, 2014 -- 9:02AM, vegasdreams wrote:

double checked and all good ,it is on bet receipts -

vegasdreams, be careful you don't trade based on your skybet bets though, they have a habit of cancelling bets if they were 'put up in error'

don't leave yourself massive red cause of it, is what I mean

Just these for now.....will get others in running.

Rickie Fowler
Phil Mickelson
Matt Kuchar
Tiger Woods
Jordan Spieth    
Graeme McDowell
Martin Kaymer
Lee Westwood    
Brandt Snedeker
Nick Watney

Piercy out to 680 - probably the "wrongest" price I have seen on here for a few years

cheers forest will do - cant be wrong tho as there shorter prices than the W/O RORY markets and main being, the 4 named arn't in the betting!
i just think it's bookies trying to outdo each-other, but in my opinion they've gone a little too much with this one, just wish i'd seen it earlier, dont think i'd have had a bet anywhere else tbh, cue someonne coming on here to explain why it's actually a sh!t bet, really can't see how tho.

@ muppet moans - why we liking peircy? it is u who does the write ups for the majors aint it? where is it man? pull yer finger out!!!

It was put on here days ago.You must have been busy changing position again.

ty i think

Lay of Mcilroy makes sense. Very very very very unlikely he wins 3 tournaments in a row.

Just for you Vegas

When researching for this years US PGA Championship it becomes fairly obvious that of the last 15 winners 13 of them had already won that season - the two exceptions were oddly Micheel and Dufner who both won @ Oak Hill. For some reason Americans have a better record in this Major than the others - possibly down to the heat and humidity in August in the states where it is staged and don't be put off by backing outsiders - they have a good record. Lastly seven of the last ten winners had posted at least a top six finish in the Major before. I have come up with five golfers who fulfill at least some of these criteria.
My first selection was Jonas Blixt mainly due to his big price especially when you consider his recent form in Majors. He was a pretty consistent golfer over the last few years winning in both 2012 and 2013 and finishing 4th in this last year. 2014 has not been a great year for the Swede but he did pop up from nowhere on his Masters debut to finish 2nd @ Augusta. At 250/1 he has to be worth a small risk 0.2 ew - now available with 6 places on offer.
Hideki Matsuyama heads to Valhalla with that all important win earlier in the season and it could well be a good omen for him that it came on another Jack Nicklaus course @ Muirfield Village which some people think is a good fit for Valhalla. That win came after a consistent run of form on his return from injury and added to five wins the youngster had already achieved in Japan in his short career. In just 24 starts in the US he can also boast a 3rd a 4th and a 10th in the US Open last year and was an ever improving 12th last week @ Firestone. He is a huge talent and worthy of a decent bet 0.4 ew 66/1 6 places
Scott Stallings' performances on the golf course bear a remarkable similarity to Forrest Gumps' box of chocolates - you never know what you are going to get! However he has that all important win this season - coming in a top class event @ Torrey Pines. He also seems to have a penchant for Jack Nicklaus courses having won @ Annandale, finished 4th @ Muirfield and he should have won when we were on him in the Humana. Being from Tennessee he will be well used to the heat and humidity and if we can catch him on a going week he is a ridiculously big price 0.1 ew 400/1 6 places.
Talking of local players then we simply have to have Kentuckian JB Holmes in our line-up. He returned to form this year after taking time off for brain and elbow surgery and a broken ankle! He won @ Quail Hollow this year after a consistent run of form and that event is often taken by Major performers. He would clearly love to delight the home fans who probably still feel their other home grown player Kenny Perry should have won here back in 2000. Perry was a stalwart in the US Ryder Cup team that easily beat Europe here at Valhalla in 2008 and his efforts were actually surpassed by a young Holmes who was a Captains pick that year. He has been well tipped up because of his local connections which comes as no great surprise 0.25 ew 110/1 6 places.
My big outsider will come as a surprise to most but there is method in my madness so bear with me! Scott Piercy doesn't have a win under his belt this year but then again he did miss a big chunk having gone through elbow surgery - he does however fit the criteria of a top finish in the event before having been 5th @ Oak Hill last season. What first caught my attention was his his from at this time of year - his two Web.com wins came on the 10th and 28th of August and his two PGA wins on the 29th July and 7th August. Whilst looking for similar courses to Valhalla - namely tree lined parkland with elevation changes I identified Hamilton where Piercy won the Canadian Open and you could almost say that the Nicklaus designed Montreux course fits the bill as well - the scene of his other win. He played a couple of Web.com events as allowed on his return from surgery and his only start on the PGA tour was in Canada where he finished 25th. There was however plenty of encouragement in that as his second round 65 was the 3rd lowest of the day and the closing 66 was joint 8th lowest, he also finished 6th in scrambling and 5th for putts per round. Given that he has finished 5th and 6th after the opening rounds in the last two PGA Championships I have backed him in the first round leader market - 0.1 ew 200/1 and outright 0.4 ew 300/1 6 places.
There were numerous other players that nearly made the final list and I have had savers on Reed 100, Cabrera 150 and Ogilvy 250 all on Betfair.

nice write up muppet, peircy eh, may well have a dabble,like the time of year bit, a thing i check quite  early when looking at someone.
also had missed (how i dont know) the fact holmes is a local!! another factor i class quite highly, i think frames is right, i may have been below par dealing with the 687 players i've backed then layed back, then backed again! i do need to find some control lol.

lol - timing on that!! ty mate :)

Hi seems really funny to be using BF again kinda got fed up when it became a bingo site so just dipping my toe into the sharkpool again. My own thoughts for this week are anything can happen so on side I have Mcdowell,Delaet,Bjorn,Matsuyama,stallings,Henley and some Tiger never thought i'd see the day tiger would trade @ 40+ on BF any way nice to be back :)

hmmm have had a dabble at peircy on here due to the inflated price but just looking at holmes 100 on here or 55/1 W/O big 4 opinions which is the best bet?

Been looking a lot at Total Driving stat this week.  Much been made of length off the tee, especially as conditions look likely to be damp.  But in wet conditions you don't want to be hitting out of the rough so I've been looking for a compromise of the two.  Obviously Rory stands out the way he's been driving, but always on the lookout for a juicy outsider so....

Backed Chappell (11th TD) heavily early in the week around the 600 mark and resisting temptation to trade now he's shortened to a more realistic price, and was somewhat excited when Stefani (1st TD) got added, especially at 1000.  Sitting on both for 6-figure wins, so here's hoping.

Good luck to everyone this week.

Why not do both Vegas JB loves this course will def be in amongst them is my tuppence worth

an extra bet guru, well why not, i have been playing this one a little tight!

gl bosman - it's nice to have one or two winning that life altering obscene amount :)

Backed to many at +500ish a week it feels like its all about the top 5 in market, well well gl guys and hopefully a bunched up leaderboard on sunday!

heres my  small bets(total £100) for what its worth, casey@280ish, illonen @800,  na@330, snedeker110, streelman 780, kj choi 570.only added sneds today as hes  gone beyond what I thought he should be, na was a totally ludicrous price as I think casey(deffo finding bits of old form) was.in truth  nearly all of the front end of market players are I form but all trading so much shorter tha ever before so ive avoided em.heres hoping  rory doesn't shoot 66 or better to spoil the fun.

added Harman @600, I know hes a shoprt hitter and probably at a big disadvantage but at those prices  you don't get everything!!!!!!

can't wait for saturday try-out my new irons! not for greeds sake but got 2 sets as i'm sorting a mate, i'd actually tried and picked out mine - the yonex ezone sd - the other set is the wilson staff DI11s , i'm pretty sure i'm gunna keep the yonex but looking forward to trying both.
anyone used or got an opinion on these two?

Hunter Mahan (PGA)
Colt Knost (Web.com)

I'm going to risk sounding like a complete idiot now but have they started???

There's no activity on Shot Tracker yet???

I play with the yonex ezone irons. One of the best set of irons I've had. Long and forgiving. Got to love Japanese technology .

Well after spending the last 3 days trading what seems like nearly every player bar the below 100s and the 1000 shots, some good some bad, I ended up with a team of about 30. Seemed too much so decided to keep the ones I liked the best and take a profit. One of the other's will probably win now but what can you do.

Bubba +3350
Reed +3000
Horschel +3510
Senden +6910
Hoffman +6299
Chappell +6210
Martin +5900
Palmer +7699
Steele +6979
Piercy +21497

Field +500


gl everyone

added....Miguel Angel Jimenez

excellent work geesyerdosh

yeah appealed massively to me because they are insanely light! from the little go i had, i'm looking at 20 yards further! was the main reasoning, sick to death of seeing mates use 7 iron and i'm stood with the 5!! all because of my little girlie slow swing speed.

ive had a tiny bet on piercy due to the above excellent post

show us this swing vegas!

If you'd had told me years ago that I was gonna spend all day watching bars on the screen (Shot Tracker) I would've said "Don't be fooking daft!!!"

anyone got link to the best leaderboard to use?   the pga one keeps opening up stats on the #1 player and its fooking annoying

other thread above has links mate

lol pokeron - i will do it on saturday, weather it see's this place is another question i will be studying it first!!

added luke Donald, I know hes playing well below  form but at 180 worth a small bet I reckon

Backed Chappell (11th TD) heavily early in the week around the 600 mark and resisting temptation to trade now he's shortened to a more realistic price, and was somewhat excited when Stefani (1st TD) got added, especially at 1000.  Sitting on both for 6-figure wins, so here's hoping.

Early days, Rhino...

Of course mate, but still, better than a kick in the head

Absolutely.  Nice position on Palmer too so couldn't ask for a much better start so far.

You do love a long shot TB. Do you ever play the more fancied players?

Not really, no.  For majors I tend to lay a few from the front of the field and use the field green to back a few outsiders big time.  Then I just trade away as normal in-play.

Do you lose most weeks with that strategy but win big when the stars align?

I've never struck a really big win, I only have a few big punts for the majors when there's big money available on the outsiders.  To be honest, that's small preparation for the main event, whether I win or not depends entirely on my four days trading in-running.

Just moved a bit from Noh to Stefani, therhino. Backed him last week and 360 seems fair for someone on 3 under.  In a fair position with Palmer, just going to look back through this thread and try to find out why I backed him this week, even though I usually do.  Could have something to do with him being 470 on here and only 200/1 with the books.  Good luck with yours.

Worked it out. For some reason, I made a note of stonecold's post from yesterday.

stonecold- 06 Aug 14 22:18 
gone for  the folowing
patrick reed 90/1
ryan palmer 200/1 ew
cabrera 100/1 ew
billy horshel 150/1ew
graham de laet 125/ ew

couple smaller bets bigger prices

scott stalling 400/;1 ew
russel henley 300/1 ew

gl all

Swerved most of them. Backed Stallings at 560, DeLaet at 130 and Palmer at 470.

This harks back to the bad old days of Tiger's dominance; even in a tightly-bunched board the way Rory is playing it's hard to see him losing.  More important, takes away a lot of tradeability when the market is dominated by one guy.  With one of my two big wins co-leading, the other just three back and my third best (Palmer) also co-leading should be in a great position, but could all be for naught if they're all playing for second.  Need one more Freaky Friday for old times sake!

When they showed his driving stats for yesterday it looked worrying.Please no odds on shots before Sunday.

Rory does rather distort the market, Total Bosman.  Palmer one in front and 22 times the price, Westwood one in front and 9 times the price, Chappell one in front and 25 times the price. It's a puzzle to work out the next move.  Probably move a bit of Rory to Chappell and give me another green to trade with.

It's not really distorting the market, there is a reason why Palmer, Chappell and Westwood are those prices!!!

It's the old impossible position, hard to see him losing, but even harder to back at 2/1 in a crowded leaderboard with 54 still to play.  Still the streakiest guy out there, could shoot 61 today but there's always that glimmer that he could chuck in one of his stinkers.

Have Rory and Rickie just been spotted staggering back to their hotel after a night on the lash?

Fowler can go back to bed for 4.5 hours, Rory should have known better.

Like most, I hope for the sake of a contest and a lively market that Rory doesn't hit double figures under par this morning. But I'm kind of expecting it.

dlarssonf, I know there's a reason.  But, in my mind, they're still too big.

Its now nine straight rounds Rory been impeccable with his long game, it feels so unlikely that he'll have an off day at the moment

The only chance of him not going strident on this course is if he gets too complacent or chasing any dropped shots. He knows that he is mentally as relaxed as he has ever been when in contention. The nervous anticipation for these events is turning into just a walk in the park.

If he sticks to the game plan over the 4 days, his natural game is too good.

was very ominous the way he came back from his double yesterday. Hard to see him not shooting 3 or 4 under every day at the moment.

Torrential rain to start the day.

Quincy    08 Aug 14 12:22 
dlarssonf, I know there's a reason.  But, in my mind, they're still too big.

That's the beauty of the exchange I don't think they are too big at all.  Best of luck with your bets today Quincy

A lot will depend if he's out in or after the rain.  It's bucketing just now by the looks of things, but unclear how long they can / will play for.  If he's out in the heavy rain could be tough, if they stop and he goes out after he's caught a break and could go way low.

Well, i dont know weather to be pleased or pi$$ed at my little venture into trading of sorts, but plenty running for me and better than nowt if i'd left it, dont think i could try it in regular events!!

out 0f 69 selections 53 went green.

this means my book now reads -

10 people win - £500

35 people win - £250

8 people win - £200

rest of field lose - £125

out of the 53 green - 31 are under par so theoreticly have a chance.

Hmmm now its broken and wrote down looks worse than it did with loadsa green people in book.

it all depends who your red and greens are vegas as to whether you have a good book running for you

Chances of rain diminishes as they day goes on from 60% at 8am - 38% at 4pm.

Thunderstorms until 10 am but chances of more thunderstorms all day long.

Play suspended.  Still, nice of them to try.

Play suspended.  Still, nice of them to try.

Need it to clear before Rory arrives on the 10th tee.

As well as he's playing, the phrase "good break for Rory" has certainly been over-used recently.

dlarssonf - see it's not horrendous but not great

in the market order as it is now - i only have 2 of the top ten (furyk,palmer) so that does not seem good  - but then the next 15 players all win 200 + which look quite good.(sounds ok - 17 of top 25 onside)
suppose it's the same old same old - if rory fires i'm fooked, without him i's proper fancy my chances

Any chance they could start again playing preferred lies ?

knowing the forecast i would be surprised if they didn't. If they didn't then unlikely they will change

Didn't already have preferred lies in play MW ?

JasonSobelGC: Going to be an interesting second round. Started by playing the ball down. Which means they can't switch to lift, clean and place now.

So if rain stops and drys out a little in the afternoon the afternoon guys might have an advantage

vegasdreams, you're challenging Ski and me for the title of bigest teams. (Layers aren't counted by the way)
I'm well down the field this week. Only a team of 24, but I've got 7 of the top 11.  Need to do something about Stenson, Furyk, Garcia and Scott. The cash-out says I can take a profit of £73.00, my spreadsheet says I can green up for £76.00 and still have six multiK winners.  Rory is one of my smaller winners.  Good luck with yours.

so what if their ball plugs in the middle of the fairway?  it will just be tough luck?

Yeah, just introduces a huge element of luck even for the guys finding the centre of the fairway.  First bit of bad news for Rory.

Speaking of bad luck....apparently Ryan Palmer has been stuck in the tower next to the first green to wait it out because the players weren't taken in.  Resuming at 1.35 our time.  Seems odd as there seems to be a lot of standing water.

cheers quincy - see it's strange, i only have 2 of top 10 in market onside - but 7 of 10 on leaderboard onside!! lol

I just had to google what preffered lies means :p
Never heard winter rules called that, where I play.

Haven't looked at the leaderboard. I'll have a look when I've fed the the dogs.  Theyr're getting twitchy waiting for 1.30.

Still get relief if the ball is plugged in the fairway don't you? Even without lift, clean & place.

I would think so BHLL. Would be a bit of a farce if not. Hit the middle of the fairway with the drive then play your 2nd 5 yards along the ground because it's buried?

Yes and in rough I believe

see i think Rory is a terrible price - yeah he's da boy at the moment BUT ON THIS BIRDIE FEST COURSE does that not kinda takeaway from his advantage???
The fact that most are capable of 6/7/8/9 birdies in becomes much more open imo.

Added
Rory
Furyk
Rose
Garcia
Scott
Bubba
C Wood
Lowry
Keegan
Jiminez

vegas, of all the tournaments he has won his worst score is -12, so I think it's the opposite. The birdie fest suits him, it doesn't hurt him. An attritional course or a plodders course wouldn't, but this type of track is in his wheelhouse. Not many who can go with him if he plays well for 4 days.

It going to be difficult to play well in this weather especially when one has to wear wear more clothings as it tends to interfere with one's swing.

big thing in that rhino is HIS SCORES the rest in alot of the other ones were playing a harder course!!

Could be to the advantage of Rory and Westwood, and to a lesser degree Stenson, Ski.  More used to playing in the rain than most of the US golfers.

vegasdreams, only have four of the top ten on the leaderboard.  Can add quite a few for not a lot of stake money.

I think I'm going to take some of my Rory green out and splash it about a bit.

Vegas he will win or he won't, think you're over analysing. If he doesn't, it wasn't because the course favoured others. He can have a so so day and shoot -4. Others will have to play well to shoot -4.

Looks like you and I are in the same boat, Ski.  Anti Stenson. I only half fancy him and I think he's too short.

In his press conf you can tell he already feels at home on the course, talking of how he feels comfortable he is now shaping the ball left and right and how receptive the course is.

You can just sense what is going to happen.

"Vegas he will win or he won't, think you're over analysing"  -  has been known to happen lol

convinced myself no anyway , taking 225 out of rory - so book now read - 31 of the people still "in it" winning 500 ish field + 100 - rory red for 600 - ven if he wins which obv has big chance there will be up's and downs in the market for him.

Rickie Fowler             133.42
Brendon De Jonge    4138.50
Scott Stallings            3221.00
Seung-Yul Noh             681.00
Shaun Micheel            3801.00
Colin Montgomery    2345.00
Phil Mickelson             173.00
Tiger Woods             377.00
Jordan Spieth         353.00
Graeme McDowell             151.00
Martin Kaymer             373.00
Lee Westwood         689.90
Nick Watney             525.80
Brandt Snedeker            4371.00
Scott Piercy            2241.00
Graham DeLaet             261.00
Miguel Angel Jimenez     601.00
Ryan Palmer            2164.05
Ryan Moore             781.00
Justin Rose             430.85
Brendon Todd             351.00
Rory McIlroy             135.13
Shawn Stefani            1241.00
Kevin Chappell             351.00
The Field            -199.00

Not the prettiest book you've ever seen, but I should end up with a plus sign.  Can write off Stallings, looks like a snowman at best on the par 5 tenth.

Didn't have a bet until 1.15 pm. UK time yesterday.  Had I started earlier, it would have been a bigger team.

Shot tracker will drive your crackers. Just given Stallings a shot back, only a 7 at the 10th.

Scary stuff @ the moment tbh thought Stallings after a qiet day yesterday would maybe rip it up a little seems the only thing he will be ripping is his and my hair out lol

He's getting worse, guru1.

hoe far behind is shot tracker form the action? 5 minutes? 10?

all over the place leroy imo, sometimes it's quite quick, sometimes a player takes 20 minutes to play another shot

Ah well, fun while it lasted.