Golf
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Another tough one to predict with Conway Farms hosting for a Tour event for the first time. Had previously never heard of it. Taken the course tour online, fairly open and if the rough isn't too penal I think we'll see some low scoring. Fancy the bombers to take the course on, with plenty of bail out areas looks like a layout to be aggressive on.
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Bets so far - traded Furyk, backed Mahan at 48, Bubba at 80, Haas at 85/90 and Leishman at 250. Think Haas is excellent value coming off the MC in Boston. 5 MCs prior to Boston this year, the 5 events following those he has gone T9, MC, T4, Win and T7.
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in last 7 years, 4 aussies have come runner up. leish, sendo, goggin and badman.
which aussie this year? |
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GMac at 140 is a bit rude in a 70 man field. Had to take it, DJ too, has a solid track record in playoffs time. 44s very nice.
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In my limited experience new fathers rarely perform soon after their kids' birth. Ogilvy and Edo Mol have been garbage since their most recent little ones popped out. Hope DJ proves me wrong though rhino - it's not like my stats are comprehensive after all
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Nick Watney 110/1 E/W. Big price in a limited field. Also taken some on here @ 166
Patrick Reed 150/1 E/W. Recent winner and, unlike most of his competitors, he has course experience, with some decent amateur form around here. Debating over a few others. |
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C.Stroud @ 650 is the only interest I will be having in this.
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Spot on sandsave. Looks like I got my Mahan and DJ stories mixed up.
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Dufner,Spieth and Bradders - hoping at least one will go deep into the tournament.
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you forgot Ryan Moore from your list, Miss anomaly!
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Mahan should be right now. Had the standard shockers out of the system and came good last time out.
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Sneds at 50's and Billy Haas at 80's for me. GL.
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Just the two this time, DJ and Jason Day. May add a few more later on.
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@ omega - I didn't know Moore was on the list... I'll add him now :)
@ rhino - I can't share your optimism re: Hunter, but if he goes on to win I'll be sure to give you kudos! |
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Just added Hunter myself :)
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Luke Donsld lives locally and apparently a member of a course that will be new to many, so I've dabbled.
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Donald, McIlroy and D Johnson for me.
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Duffers (heart over head probably), Donald (local knowledge and needs a good finish) and McDowell (could go well if the wind picks up) for me. No doubt will be involved in about 30 of them by Sunday night! Good luck all!
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Considering this is the penultimate event on the golfing calendar it's awfully quiet in here this week
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9 man team this week
DJ +1527 Mahan +1339 Furyk +1166 Zach +1158 Bubba +1375 Haas +1445 GMac +1073 Watney +1575 Leishman +5284 The field -153 Also taken Piercy for top 10 at 10.5 as a side bet. |
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Donald
Furyk Dufner Woods Day Rose |
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From the PGA tour website, "The off week came at a perfect time for Tiger Woods and his problematic back.
"That was nice, it was nice to have that week of treatment, strengthening, so that was all good, and practicing towards the end of the week," Woods said on Wednesday lafter shooting a bogey-free 68 in the pro-am at the BMW Championship." A bogey-free 68 sounds decent, but I guess we have no idea what kind of scores to expect from the leaders. |
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Switched out Zach for Sneds. 65s simply too good to pass, now that he's finally had a week off hoping he may come good. Zach now the tiniest of greens, also taken some out of Leishman to add Piercy in the winner market.
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Rhino's team looks like a good place to start. Don't really like GMac, but can't argue with the logic at the price.
Not in the best of moods at the moment. The changes in the place terms on horse racing have caused a complete rethink, the over-rounds have settled down a bit, but I don't have the confidence to put my nose in at the moment. My returns on the flat this year are abysmal, have backed one winner in races of less than 1m 6f. Percentage has dropped to 61% profit on stakes, mainly due to lack of liquidity in the races I want to bet in. On top of all that, had a fall last week. Badly bruised or cracked ribs, pulled muscle in calf. Agony to laugh, cough or sneeze. All in all, not a happy bunny, good luck with yours. |
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Sorry to hear you're in the wars Quince. Off to Moonee Valley this weekend to watch the races, get to see Atlantic Jewel go round in what will be a demolition. Quite looking forward to it. Hope you mend quick mate.
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Jesus Quincy, even the guessers would have more winners than that mate, probably why I gave up the flat years ago, NH due to begin in earnest next month, diff ball game. Hopefully the golf is paying for you, chin up.
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With two driveable Par 4's and three Par 5's i expect a winning score of about -18. Gary Woodland 120 should enjoy this course and Matt Every 300+ is overdue for a win.
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Deplasterer, until someone asked Ski about Returns on Investment with the golf, I only kept a combined record. I've bet in 121 what I call proper races, and backed 132 horses as a there a few races that I back two in. 29 winners, (just over 25%), profit on stakes is at 63%. It was upto 78&, but the last three have been beaten. I back the horse and then put a lay bet in for two thirds of my stake at 75% of the price. It works, but it is slow and getting on enough at the price I want is in the first place is a problem. Over 60% of my lay bets are matched before the race, by the way, so I'm doing something right.
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If it turns profit overall, keep at it Quincy
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That reminds me Quincy.
Had a think about the ROI. There is golf as regular trading, correct scores on selective football matches, X-factor and CBB. (backed Abz at 40 and turned a green book as Abz's prices collapsed in 1 week from 40 to 2 ish ). There are occasional jump races such as Cheltenham Festival and Grand National festival. So how does one calculate ROI when there are more than one events at the same time.Since my motto is 'a profit is a profit' as the banks pays practically nothing in interest on my savings, i've decided that the best and simple way of calculating ROI is the increased bank balance on a weekly basis. So the week would be Monday to Sunday night, except last week as the golf, same event, finished on Monday night. |
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Never tried to work out ROI on golf, Ski. Too many variables. One way would be to total all your stakes pre-tournament, ignoring your lays. Then multiply your final profit by 100 and divide by your total stakes. It will give you a worst case scenarion figure, if nothing else.
I know that in the last three tournaments, I have backed the winner and would have won more if I had traded no-one. The strange thing is I would still have won more if I had not backed the winner and done all the other trades. As they said in the X Files, the answer is out there somewhere. Good luck with yours. |
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I back the horse and then put a lay bet in for two thirds of my stake at 75% of the price sorry Quincy, explain that please?
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p.power are giving a special on tiger 7/1 with money back if he finishes 2nd inc ties, not a bad bet.
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DONEMYLOT, This is based on the worst case scenario that you are paying the maximum comminsion of 5% and the figures are the easiest to work out.
You have £60.00 on a horse at 6/1 (7.00 on Betfair). Wins you £342.00 (£360.00 minus £18.00 comm.) Your lay bet is £40.00 (Two thirds of £60.00) @ 9/2 (5.50, 6 x 0.75 + 1) You are left with £20 winning £180.00, less 5% comm = 171.00, equivalent to odds of 8.55/1 You have £60.00 on a horse at 3/1 (7.00 on Betfair). Wins you £171.00 (£180.00 minus £9.00 comm.) Your lay bet is £40.00 (Two thirds of £60.00) @ 9/4 (3.25, 3 x 0.75 + 1) You are left with £20 winning £90.00, less 5% comm = 85.50, equivalent to odds of 4.28/1 My criteria for bets are handicaps of 9 to 12 runners, trainer and jockey to have decent records at the track, and the trainer has had a handicap winner in the previous 10 days. And I like to have crossed out the favourite on the basis of out of form or poor record at the track. (For instance, Mark Johnson has a terrible record at Yarmouth.) I don't bet in condition races and rarely in three year old handicaps. Just make your own selections and see how it works out on paper. It shows a profit on second favourites starting at 3/1 or bigger, but nowhere near the same percentage. |
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Why is Sneds now trading at 70's? Can anyone fill me in please?
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Final team to begin with.
Day + 1,582.44 DJ + 1,956.04 Mahan + 4,473.48 Webb + 2,571.48 Haas + 2,381.28 Field - 296.02 Good luck all |
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Strange statement, Bruce. FINAL team to BEGIN with.
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Justin Rose ball in the water? hole 18?
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Failing to pull the trigger on Sneds at 80 will go down as a pretty big error.
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