Pod is a lunatic:

Sky Reporter: " why if your so against putting aids are you now using one?"

Pod: "Look,  if I am 100 yrds offline and land on a cartpath, I think I'll use it".

Went for Molinari, Sterne and Dubuisson. Think Quiros could have a big week as well if conditions remain calm and it looks more and more like they will.


Strengths

Event & Venue:

The Irish Open returns to Carton House for the first time since 2006 and for its 3rd staging of this prestigious event. Unfortunately it remains without a main sponsor although numerous secondary sponsors have come on board for this year’s renewal. Failte Ireland has pumped money into this event and it is hoped that with good weather forecast, that the crowds flock to the Maynooth venue in Kildare and the profile of the event can be raised to a level which will entice sponsors going forward.

The Open has visited Adare Manor, Baltray, Killarney and Royal Portrush since 2006 and has taken in many different types of golf course in these 6 renewals, from the parkland course in Killarney to the stunning old links course in Royal Portrush.
Carton House is best described as an inland links course and was designed by Colin Montgomerie in association with Stan Eby. It is one of two courses on the estate (the O’Meara course being the other one) and was opened in August 2003. It is believed that Monty took his influence for the design of the course from the many beautiful courses in Scotland such as Turnberry and his native Gleneagles and some of the features of Scottish courses, such as the very deep bunkers are very much in evidence on this track.

Course Characteristics:

The Montgomerie Course measures 7,301 yards and plays to a Par of 72. If you want to get a real appreciation of the venue then it is well worth watching the excellent interactive course map introduced by Shane Donoghue which can be found on www.irishopen.ie.
This is an inland links with deep cavernous bunkers that are positioned to challenge nearly every drive and also surround pretty much every green.
The fairways are of average width but there is barely a straight driving hole on the course and the ability to shape the ball from the tee is crucial this week. Driving accuracy has been hailed as being very important at this venue but with the wind likely to be relatively placid for at least the first two days, it does not strike us as the most important attribute.

The rough is not overly penal with both the semi and intermediate rough being 1.8 metres wide, providing further room for error, although the main rough has not been cut since last Friday and could prove quite challenging. However the approach shots to the very slopey greens are of paramount importance.

The greens themselves are set to run to between 10.6′ and 11′ on the stimpmeter which is far from quick, but they are undulating and sloped to feed into the very deep bunkers. Precision approach shots will be key and this may also persuade players to ease off on some of the Par 5s and try and approach with a 3rd shot wedge rather than go for the green in 2 shots. The Par 5s are all very reachable, with the exception of the 605 yard 4th hole, but a degree of caution may provide rewards on these longer holes.

The wind is expected to pick up over the weekend but at the moment it does not look to be a huge factor. However on this exposed venue, it will be at least blustery over the weekend and an ability to play in these type of conditions will certainly be of benefit.

The last time the event was staged at Carton House in 2006, the players had to endure some horrible conditions. The event finished on Monday and Thomas Bjorn managed to win despite shooting an opening round 78, with a 5 under par total of 283. With the weather looking set to be much better this week, we would expect that a winning score of at least -13 under will be required to be in contention and if the wind does not blow, it could take a few more shots under par than that to win on Sunday evening.

33/1 Francesco Molinari:

The 30 year old Molinari has not enjoyed one of his best seasons so far in 2013 but he still lies 40th in the Race To Dubai and has a couple of Top 10s to his name in the Volvo Golf Champions (9th) and the BMW PGA Championship (9th). His performance in the latter event was better than the finishing position suggests as he was bang in contention when he went bogey, triple bogey, bogey between holes 7 and 9 in the 3rd round, effectively ending his chances or at the very least, really stifling the momentum that he had built up. He did manage to keep things together after that and a final round of 70 was very creditable.

He has followed this up with a fair effort in the Nordea Masters where he was 21st before missing the cut at an exceptionally difficult US Open. Unlike many of his compatriots he did not tee it up last week in Munich and the break will have done him good and got him refocused for the tests ahead including this event and The Open Championship at Muirfield.

Molinari is an excellent tee to green player and an exceptional ball striker. He ranks 8th in Driving Accuracy this year and he is a much better iron player than a current ranking of 77th for Greens In Regulation (“GIR”) would suggest. A ranking of 6th in 2012 is more reflective of just how good he is with his approach shots and this was demonstrated at Wentworth when he ranked 7th for GIR and 12th in Driving Accuracy.

Distance off the tee is not his strong point (ranks 142nd), but while our other selections can bomb it from the tee, the cautious approach that we referred to earlier is exactly the way Molinari will play the longer holes and we would expect plenty of birdies from him as a result. He lacks the power to easily reach all bar the 18th hole (measures 513 yards) but he should leave himself with wedge shots that he can target the flag with and eliminate a lot of risk.

Molinari has shown that he enjoys playing in the Irish Open and while his displays at Carton House are not noteworthy (was early in his career anyway), he has posted a 7th place finish in Adare in 2007, 8th in Killarney in 2010 and 10th in Royal Portrush last year. These venues are not similar to Carton House but the fact that he brings his A game to Ireland is important. However some people have pointed to the influence that courses like Gleneagles have had on the Carton House design and it is very encouraging to see that Molinari was 6th at Gleneagles last year and 3rd in 2010.

With the greens not likely to be too much of a test given that they are set to run relatively slow, this should also aid Molinari who is not among the elite players with the flat stick in the game and it is his precision with his irons that can create the opportunities to lift the title on Sunday. With so much focus on the Irish players this week, who occupy 4 of the top 6 positions in the betting, Molinari is a bigger price than we would have expected at 33/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral and this is worth taking each way. The 10/1 each way with Ladbrokes for Molinari to be Top Continental European (this will be in another SWOT) may also prove to be of interest.

Weaknesses

Slightly Below Best
While we can point to very encouraging signs from Molinari this year, he still needs to step it up a level in order to lift this title against a very competitive field this week. He cannot afford to have mid-round implosions like he did during Round 3 at Wentworth. With the weather set to be unusually favourable, low scoring will be key and a number of bogeys will soon drop a player out of contention.

Richard Sterne has dropped his level a little since his stellar start to the year, but he is priced accordingly as he would have been among the market leaders earlier in the year. At 50/1 the risk that he is not quite at his best is worth taking.

Opportunities

80/1 Victor Dubuisson:

Victor Dubuisson is a super talent but he very much falls into the “horses for courses” category at the moment. He is very powerful off the tee and is an excellent iron player, but his driving accuracy can be an issue.  He seems really well suited to exposed courses that allow a little bit of room off the tee and the links style course really seems to suit his game. So far this year he has finished 9th in the Qatar Masters (was also 9th in 2012), 3rd in the China Open (played at the links style Binhai Lake course) and also 9th in the Avantha Masters and 4th in the Malaysian Open.

He has mixed this with some poor displays at Wentworth and the Ballantines Championship (where he missed both cuts) but the tight Wentworth venue does not suit his game at all, while his Ballantines display needs to be put down to a bad week at the office (he finished 3rd there last year). Dubuisson showed in 2012 how well he can operate on links courses with a 5th in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, where he shot a 62 in the opening round that at one stage looked lie being a 59. He also has shown excellent form at Gleneagles with an 8th place finish in 2011 and 15th last year.

As stated earlier, he is a huge driver of the ball and ranks 33rd in driving distance while his approach play is generally very solid, ranking 34th in Greens In Regulation. Accuracy is an issue and he ranks 162nd in this category but there is room off the tee at Carton House and provided he can avoid the fairway bunkers, it should not present too much of a problem. He has the power to carry many of these bunkers in any case. His putting is also solid and this combination of excellent approach play and sound putting looks ideal.

Dubuisson is a European Tour winner waiting to happen and the victory of his compatriot Raphael Jacquelin earlier this year and the recent near miss from Romain Wattel should inspire him to some big performances over the coming weeks. The 80/1 with Coral looks very big on a course that promises to suit and is worth taking each way.

50/1 Richard Srerne:

Richard Sterne was highliughted by us ahead of the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth but he never really got himself into contention. However his finishing position of 57th (his worst in stroke play this year) was greatly exaggerated by a quadruple bogey on the closing hole. It is very possible that once he was out of contention, that his mind was focused on his wife expecting their child within the next 7 days and that effort at Wentworth is forgivable in the circumstances.

The 31 year old South African was 9th at this venue in 2005 but withdrew the following year. He has not contended on his last number of visits to Ireland but some of these were during his injury struggles. Sterne has looked a different player this year now that he is free from injury and his form on the European Tour in the early part of this year was exceptioonal. This included a 7th placing in the Alfred Dunhill Championship, followed by a 2nd placing in the Dubai Desert Classic (where he almost led from start to finish), and culminating in a hugely impressive 7 shot triumph from compatriot Charl Schwartzel at the Joburg Open.

Sterne is a a very solid tee to green player and he ranks 55th in driving distance and 47th in GIR this season, while he is 64th in Driving Accuracy. He is also a very good putter and ranks 13th in PuttsPer GIR and 22nd in Putts Per Round this season. His ability to scramble and play out of bunkers could also be crucial.

Sterne does not arrive here with the cast iron form that he was showing earlier in the year but other than his below par Wentworth display, he has very strong form in the book in fields that were every bit as strong as that which he faces at Celtic Manor. While the Irish golfers deserve maximum respect, it is difficult to see why Sterne at 50/1 with Skybet should be trading at double the odds of Shane Lowry (despite this being his home venue) and nearly 3 times the odds of Padraig Harrington.

Threats

The Home Players:

Padraig Harrington broke a very long sequence of Irish Opens without a home victory that spanned 25 years with his success in Adare in 2007 and Shane Lowry quickly followed up with victory two years later in Baltray.

The home team is headed by Rory McIlroy who could take this field apart if he is on his game this week. As a former member of the GUI Academy, McIlroy has plenty of course experience and I am sure that he will be keen to out some very disappointing recent displays behind him. He looked to be getting things together ahead of the Masters but in recent weeks he has looked a shadow for the player that was World Number 1 a few months ago.  At 8/1 he can be opposed this week despite the fact that he is a class apart at his best.

Graeme McDowell is next in the betting at a best price of 16/1 with Paddy Power which is bound to come under pressure. He has not excelled at this venue in the past with two missed cuts in 2005 & 2006, but is a far better player now. However his form since his victory in the RBC Heritage has dipped and he looks short enough on a course that demands accurate approach shots which has been his weakness this year (ranks 143rd in GIR on the PGA Tour).

Padraig Harrington really is becoming an enignma and after a promising start to the Travelers Championship last week, he closed out with an 80. He has very solid form of 11th and 5th in the two Irish Opens to be played here but he does not appeal as a betting proposition and the odds of 16/1 are very much influenced by this being a home event for him.

Shane Lowry makes the most appeal among the Irish players and he actually lives on the estate. He adores this venue ans has so much course experience that he has a significant advantage. We originally intended putting him up as a main bet, but odds of 25/1 are very much at the lower end of what we wanted. Odds of 7/1 to be Top Irish player make more appeal and will be dealt with in another SWOT. Damien McGrane is another Irish Player that appeals in this market.

Former Winners

Both Thomas Bjorn and Ross Fisher arrive here with their games in excellent shape and on the back of very good performances at the BMW International Open last week. After supporting Bjorn at 33/1 last week, he does not make the same appeal at 16/1 but should enjoy another good week.

Brett Rumford has cooled a little after going back to back in Asia but is worthy of respect as his putting will always give him a chance of contending.

Others

Mikko Ilonen was 10th last year at Portrush and is a fine exponent of links golf with one of the hottest putters on tour, He was runner up to Brett Rumford when we selected him at the China Open and has since notched up a victory to go along with an excellent 12th at Wentworth.

Joost Luiten won his second tour title a few weeks ago at the Lyoness Open and his accurate tee to green game gives him every possibility of being near the front of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Joakim Lagergren..  850 seems a more than fair price. Yep.

I was surprised not to see Mikko at Sunningdale this week, as I don't think that he has qualified for The Open yet.

Hence I have been lumping on him for Muirfield, as if he wins this week, then he is pretty much in at Muirfield, and his price will only go one way.

Just these for now....

Rory McIlroy
Graeme McDowell
Shane Lowry
Garth Mulroy
Eddie Pepperell
Seve Benson

is any of this on TV guys?

When I first did my research into the Irish Open the one thing that struck me was how well the Welsh have played Montys course at Carton House. Craig Smith won the Irish amateur in 2004, Stephen Dodd won the Irish Open in 2005 and Rhys Pugh won the European Amateur last year from fellow Welshman James Frazer. Sadly most of the Welsh players are in poor form and Jamie Donaldson who won the title last year on a very different course was awful when he played here before. I have ended up with rather a hotch potch assortment of players picked for varying reasons.
Mikko Ilonen on the face of it seems quite a generous price considering his recent form. Having finished runner up in Morocco and China he finally won in Sweden and one could hardly say he is golfed out with a quiet schedule 0.4 ew 40/1
Paul Waring has also been in good form following up his earlier 4th in Spain with a 5th and 10th in his last two starts. He seems to play the same events well from one year to the next which aren't necessarily played on the same courses 0.3 ew 80/1
Gregory Havret continues the theme of players in good form mainly due to some excellent scrambling stats which I believe is one aspect of the game which could prove handy around Carton House. Before his missed cut in Germany (never played that course well) last week he had reeled off four consecutive top 25 finishes which he attributes to a new coach and re-dedicating himself to the game. He played here back in 2006 finishing 15th and at a three figure price is worth backing 0.2 ew 100/1
Next we come to a couple of amateurs who are seeking to emulate Shane Lowry from a couple of years ago and why not! Rhys Pugh is my one from the Welsh theme who as mentioned earlier won the European amateur last year around this course. Finishing in 4th place that week was Irish amateur Kevin Phelan who this year managed to qualify for the US Open and actually played really well. With recent course knowledge an advantage I have backed them both in the same way - 0.1 ew 150/1 Round one leader + 0.1 ew 300/1 outright.

Another lovely winner last week with the Big Easy, its been a really profitable few weeks, remember, my posts can always be found at www.open4golf.com Irish Open this week and my selections are as follows;

Shane Lowry
Jamie Donaldson
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Marc Warren ( back to lay )

Good Luck

Win,Top 5,T 10.
lockerbie
lagergreen
lampert
lara
little
lundberg
lloyd
lee
levet
pete lawrie
paul lawrie
lewis
levy
larrazabal
luiten
lowry. as ime a learner ime going with the L,s.

its shocking how they dont sort it out, makes it look like a joke

We have lost connectivity on venue and are working on re-establishing. Funny how it always happens when the favourite tees off.

Just not @rsed are they?

No scoreboard.......no TV.........no wonder there's no sponsorship....going back to bed to read a book.

boy wonder angry again

live blog !

they'd be better off seting up a twitter thing and people could reply and tell them how rubbish their scoring is

shirley the live blog has realised the scoring is fecked, and could update us with other stuff as well as casey being -3

^^^^ no idea if that is true but its off twitter ....

lowry price came in so something good happening for me

on tv in 10 min so atleast we will know something soon, its a joke

lol at

https://twitter.com/BenColeyGolf


ben knows !!!

lost track of time i didnt realise they were thru so many holes