NORTHERN TRUST - Chit Chat

Looking forward to this. first proper tourney of the year and Riviera is a cracker. Watch out for the Aussies, they go alright here, I think the track has similarities with the Melbourne sandbelt so the lads probably feel comfortable at Riviera.

Jimmy Walker @36 sure to go well.T4 last two years and had a great start to this term with a good T3 at Pebble Beach.Pat Perez @150 worth a second look.

Backed Walker e.w last week at 45s. To be shorter in a different class of event is wrong, especially after showing a very weak side in laying up off tee on the last hole.

I think Walker's worth backing at 40/1 and 6 places with SJ

Agree about Walker will probably go well but no value at that price at all..... Matt Kuchar for me this week

Laid Walker.........poor value IMO.......already traded....

walker price   haas and piercy just two that are much better value as some of have already pointed out

who's jimmy walker ?

ONLY DUSTBIN FOR ME......have 90 euros here @ 27s still not matched

I'm with Peatysandy on Moore who I think will have a massive yr, also on CHIII, Badds and Walker who also I agree was good e/w value at 40s top 6.

My only 'outsider' this week is Cantlay who as a local guy with obvious class I thought was very big at the initial 150s with S James for top 6,on the back of his good week last week.

Garcia and Scott will drift now the draw has come out and they are out last

Walker 6th week on a trot though change him for Moore, out of the favourites i'd say Bubba

There's a lot of class at the top of the market, but I love having a lucky dip on long-odds people in tournaments like this.

Marino at 500s after being 70s last week, Vijay at ~300s, as well as Ben Curtis and YE Yang at ~400s each. Wagner terribly out of form but I can't say no at 800s.

The one key fact that was staring me in the face this week when looking at past winners at Riviera was the importance of good recent form but it was possible to pin it down even more precisely. Seven of the last nine winners (when 72 holes played) had finished in the top six at either Pebble Beach or Torrey Pines. The only two who hadn't were Mickelson in 2009 (although he came here as defending champion) and Stricker who didn't play either of those events that year. Stricker had been 3rd at the Sony and actually Sabbatini and Howell had both been runners up at that event. Course form is quite important as there have been many multiple winners of the event and an awful lot of players 1st and 2nd but players with average form also can perform well. Driving distance and accuracy are not really relevant but the ability to putt and particularly scramble are important. These things have led me to the first three picks whilst the final one has a bit of the old hidden course form!
Aaron Baddeley is a pick for the second week in a row and qualifies under a few criteria - obviously he has won this event before in 2011 and he was also 6th at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago. Were it not for a poor final round he could have actually followed Mickelson and Weir and won back to back titles last year - instead he finished 11th. Interestingly a few years ago he did something similar at Harbour Town - finishing 1st then 10th then nearly winning the following year just coming up shy in 2nd 0.6 ew 40/1
Chris Kirk is in great form and has already been 5th at the Sony Open and 2nd last week at Pebble Beach. Previously he had a pair of missed cuts next to his name for the AT&T much the same as he has for this weeks event. I didn't let bad course form put me off Stallings earlier this year and won't let it put me off Kirk this week especailly as he leads the scrambling stats on the PGA tour this season 0.4 ew 60/1
Russell Henley is a bit like Stricker in that he didn't play either Pebble or Torrey but of course did win at the Sony. He is a massive talent and hasn't played that poorly on his last two starts, having backed him at 66/1 last time out then getting three figures is worth having a stab at 0.25 ew 110/1
Patrick Cantlay is the one from left field for the week although he nearly qualified on the top six rule just missing out when 9th last week and that was all down to a snowman at the notorious 14th on Saturday. He played here last year on a sponsors invite and was very disappointed in his opening round that led to him missing the cut as he has played the course many times before. The last time he played was in the NCAA finals last year when he was tied 4th shooting a best of the week 66 in the final round 0.2 ew 150/1

Moore, Haas and Russell Henley for me.

Gl all.

Decided to have BVP 1st round leader e/w

This is played at Riviera.

Unless something freakish happens, then nobody starts 7 back.

Yeah last year's winner finished about -7 from memory. If that wind prediction is true Sergio might do nothing but shorten. Plus some people don't live on here and trade with each shot.

Time for a market re-shuffle please Betfair :)

Also Patrick Reed, Robert Streb, Cameron Beckman and Scott Harrington all have tee-times while Jhonattan Vegas doesn't.