Aug 24, 2024 -- 10:01AM, blank wrote:
RFK Jr will probably still be on ballots in MI, WI, NV and NC..https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/08/23/robert-f-kennedy-rfk-jr-suspends-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-michigan-ballot-natural-law/74923208007.https://abc11.com/post/will-robert-kennedy-jr-appear-ballot-north-carolina-what-happens/15224454/
There was some controversy on Poly about poorly written market rules, as in should this really count as dropping out when he will still be on ballots in some states. They settled as yes.
Aug 25, 2024 -- 2:38PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:
I backed him at around 15 - 16 on election night 2016.
Aug 25, 2024 -- 2:40PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:
Good time to ask, do we get exit polls?
Aug 25, 2024 -- 5:27PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:
Trump was definitely double figures at some point
found a chit chat in running thread from the night and seems 1.08/1.09 was mentioned for the Hilary lowpoint. Also found several posts from myself predicting a Hilary landslide
Aug 28, 2024 -- 6:20PM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:
Betfair made politics forum available again, but made it read only. But if anyone wants to check some old election threads, now you can.
...It was available for reading the entire time (or at least for some time already) for anyone not logged in.
Aug 29, 2024 -- 7:01PM, blank wrote:
Those Bloomberg polls were well timed for Kamala backers. It was looking a relatively poor day but now she has flipped RCP's battleground map. Big divergence with Silver's model that expects the polls to be giving a convention bump, and all the other models which look like they just ride through it as normal.Regarding past polling errors. The pollsters defenders say that past errors don't carry over, pollsters recalibrate for each cycle, and an error is just as likely to go either way. Some people look at things like the WA primary and special elections and can see if anything is off, it matches polling this year apparently..https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/
Those polls are more like the Peak Kamala I expected. Though I do think it is the peak, and it is still weaker than Biden 2020. It would be good enough to win right now given accurate polling. But I expect she will struggle to maintain those numbers and I flatly don't believe they are polling Trump accurately. The reasons for underestimating Trump are that Trump has been toxified in the media. And this is more the case in this cycle than the previous two (Jan 6th & 'convicted felon'). And I don't see how they are gonna fix it if Trump voters simply don't tell them.
Aug 23, 2024 -- 4:45PM, edy wrote:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr@RobertKennedyJrPresident Trump scammed American workers. He promised to bring back manufacturing, raise wages, fix trade deals, close the carried interest loophole, and help small farmers. But everything President Trump achieved were things the Republican machine wanted. We got a tax cut for Jeff Bezos, deregulation for special interests, and giveaways to agriculture conglomerates.President Trump let the Bush wing of the GOP run all his agencies. His Interior Secretary was an oil & gas lobbyist. His Defense Secretary was a Raytheon lobbyist. His EPA Administrator was a coal lobbyist. His HHS Secretary was a pharmaceutical lobbyist. And his Labor Secretary was a lawyer for mega corporations.President Trump’s supposed support for farmers ($28 billion) all went to Big Ag conglomerates. We had the worst rioting and looting this country had seen since the 60s under President Trump. He inflamed racial tensions and didn’t keep us safe. Instead of using federal law enforcement to stop the rioting, Trump thought it was good optics to let Democrat-run cities burn.President Trump bragged about arming Ukraine more than Obama did. He also walked away unilaterally from the intermediate range nuclear missile treaty with Russia, destabilizing our relationship. He also exacerbated tensions between Ukraine and Russia that ultimately caused a war.Trump appointed the worst neocons to the highest positions of power in his administration: John Bolton, HR McMaster, and Robert O’Brien. Now, Lindsey Graham is one of his top advisors and likely to be his Secretary of State.President Trump bombed Syria, killed an Iranian general, and failed to fulfill his promise of ending the war in Afghanistan.President Trump invented lockdowns. He shut down millions of small businesses and facilitated the greatest wealth transfer to billionaires in this country’s history.President Trump did nothing to solve the opioid crisis. It got far worse under his tenure while his appointees running HHS were in the pocket of big pharma.If you think a second Trump term would be any different, you are engaging in wishful thinking.4:08 AM · May 27, 2024·2.1M Viewshttps://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1794913465594962285What an inspirational man of true principles.
That's the biggest reversal since Kamala said Biden was a racist who she believed had raped a woman.
How far to we think the supreme court would go for trump?
In the context of election betting, One should assume the SC will continue to protect Trump from justice and go to great lengths to facilitate a Trump win in 2024.
Sep 4, 2024 -- 8:28AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:
That's assuming the senate stays democrat of course. Or is it based on the existing senate anyway?
The new session of Congress always begins January 3rd. Senators who lost in November or retired will be out.