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Escapee
07 Aug 24 16:13
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 7,347 | Blogger: Escapee's blog
Trump 2.0--2.02
Harris 2.1--2.12

Trump's odds continue to slide since Biden stepped aside and AFAIK, Harris is now leading in the polls.
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Report A_T August 24, 2024 9:31 AM BST
all aboard the clown car
Report GeorgeBrush August 24, 2024 10:06 AM BST
Black guy on the cnn undecided panel exposed as a trump activist
Report GeorgeBrush August 24, 2024 10:07 AM BST
They needed him mind, everyone else seemed to be voting kamala
Report blank August 24, 2024 4:01 PM BST
RFK Jr will probably still be on ballots in MI, WI, NV and NC.

.https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/08/23/robert-f-kennedy-rfk-jr-suspends-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-michigan-ballot-natural-law/74923208007

.https://abc11.com/post/will-robert-kennedy-jr-appear-ballot-north-carolina-what-happens/15224454/
Report A_T August 24, 2024 5:21 PM BST
is the don still trying to get joe biden on the ballots?
Report blank August 24, 2024 5:42 PM BST
Laugh
Report SamuelMertensBertens August 25, 2024 3:56 AM BST

Aug 24, 2024 -- 10:01AM, blank wrote:


RFK Jr will probably still be on ballots in MI, WI, NV and NC..https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/08/23/robert-f-kennedy-rfk-jr-suspends-presidential-campaign-endorses-trump-michigan-ballot-natural-law/74923208007.https://abc11.com/post/will-robert-kennedy-jr-appear-ballot-north-carolina-what-happens/15224454/


There was some controversy on Poly about poorly written market rules, as in should this really count as dropping out when he will still be on ballots in some states. They settled as yes.

Report blank August 25, 2024 2:45 PM BST
It was weird because he said he was staying on the ballot in non-swing states and wanted people to vote for him.

Nate538's model with a net 0.3% vote shift to Trump with RFK removed, similar number to what ABC's G Elliot Morris said. It was always no big deal, more about stopping the momentum and shifting the narrative after the dem convention.
Report KIMBLE August 25, 2024 7:57 PM BST
where do we see the Don price at ko?

from memory he was 2.6 ish v Biden

but im thinking more 2.8 v Kamala

we won't be seeing the 6.0 v Hilary lol
Report GeorgeBrush August 25, 2024 8:38 PM BST
I backed him at around 15 - 16 on election night 2016.  I can't remember exactly when, i think polls had just closed
Report GeorgeBrush August 25, 2024 8:40 PM BST
Good time to ask, do we get exit polls?   I can't remember.  Or are they banned?

Do people make predictions on voting queues etc?
Report A_T August 25, 2024 9:35 PM BST
i suppose the networks "calling" the winners is an equivalent
Report tobermory August 25, 2024 10:37 PM BST
where do we see the Don price at ko?

from memory he was 2.6 ish v Biden

but im thinking more 2.8 v Kamala


Why??

Kamala's polling is nowhere near as strong as Biden 2020, and she is likely close to the biggest lead she will ever have.
Report tobermory August 25, 2024 10:40 PM BST

Aug 25, 2024 -- 2:38PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


I backed him at around 15 - 16 on election night 2016.

Report tobermory August 25, 2024 10:42 PM BST
Sad was saying my recollection was Hilary was 1.23 start of night and came in to maybe 1.12 early on so Trump was not double figures election night. Maybe I misremembered tho'
Report tobermory August 25, 2024 10:44 PM BST

Aug 25, 2024 -- 2:40PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Good time to ask, do we get exit polls?

Report tobermory August 25, 2024 10:44 PM BST
lol, I don't think we do
Report GeorgeBrush August 25, 2024 11:27 PM BST
Trump was definitely double figures at some point
Report Jack Bauer "24" August 25, 2024 11:32 PM BST
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/national-results

They do conduct exit polls but they don't use the data to make a prediction when the polls close like they do in other countries. They use the data to provide the pundits with some further information to discuss through the night as the results come in.
Report tobermory August 25, 2024 11:53 PM BST

Aug 25, 2024 -- 5:27PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


Trump was definitely double figures at some point


found a chit chat in running thread from the night and seems 1.08/1.09 was mentioned for the Hilary lowpoint. Also found several posts from myself predicting a Hilary landslide Blush

Report GeorgeBrush August 26, 2024 12:16 AM BST
Yeah, it was a pretty short time, but the money buyers were out for hilary.  I must have been thinking of 12 ish for trump.

I hadn't even been involved in the market, just saw it a scooped up a bit as a hedge against the horror of him winning lol
Report blank August 26, 2024 12:44 AM BST
RCP have Trump at 46.9%, 538 at 43.7%, RacetoTheWH at 45.2%, when you factor in undecideds it brings it in-line or higher than his 2016 and 2020 results. It's hard to believe he is still being under-polled with these numbers.
Report blank August 26, 2024 2:46 AM BST
My KO guess is Don at 6/4. Models are around 54/46 but I'm squeezing a bit more for Kamala based on cash, ground organisation and how the campaigns have gone since she joined the race.
Report GeorgeBrush August 26, 2024 8:20 AM BST
Not much poll action, just activote Kam +6
Report GeorgeBrush August 26, 2024 10:06 AM BST
Trump being fluffed on poly, new accounts backing at 200k a time.  So transparent
Report blank August 27, 2024 3:41 PM BST
Michael Adams, KY Secretary of State
@KYSecState
Today at 3:30, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. filed to run for president in Kentucky. Having just completed review of his submission of signatures, we are placing him on the ballot.


Tough pill for anyone that lost on him dropping out.
Report Jack Bauer "24" August 27, 2024 9:21 PM BST
Jack Smith has filed a superseding indictment in the Jan 6 case, removing anything relating to official acts that the Supreme Court ruled are immune from prosecution.
Report Jack Bauer "24" August 27, 2024 10:22 PM BST
Harris and Walz first interview on CNN, Friday 2am, UK time.
Report blank August 27, 2024 11:23 PM BST
A double interview is a bit unusual. Walz has the best favourables of anyone in the race so they must be wanting to tap into that.
Report blank August 28, 2024 12:35 PM BST
Not good polls post DNC for Kamala so far. She hasn't lost any support in polls from their previous poll but no huge DNC bump, perhaps because they're now polling Trump correctly and it's hard to knock up 2020 margins against that 45/46 support. Good news for her is that Silver's model gives her an 87% chance of winning the EC in a Dem +3 national environment, which all indicators point to rn.

It's hard to believe Haley and Michelle are still trading at 200 with 9 days until NC starts voting, that would be one for the courts to decide even if there was the political will to bring them in. They're pushing up the prices on Kamala and Trump, both now at least a 0.5% better price than Poly.
Report SamuelMertensBertens August 29, 2024 12:20 AM BST
Betfair made politics forum available again, but made it read only. But if anyone wants to check some old election threads, now you can.
Report Jack Bauer "24" August 29, 2024 12:21 AM BST
Trump is going to be fuming when he sees the latest Fox News polls. Kari Lake is getting slaughtered in her Senate race.

Report edy August 29, 2024 3:15 PM BST

Aug 28, 2024 -- 6:20PM, SamuelMertensBertens wrote:


Betfair made politics forum available again, but made it read only. But if anyone wants to check some old election threads, now you can.


...It was available for reading the entire time (or at least for some time already) for anyone not logged in.

Report blank August 29, 2024 5:15 PM BST
Lake looks done. AZ Police union endorsed Trump last weekend and then endorsed Lake's opponent, split ticket voting in full view. Question is do they drag Trump under in those states, they're not helping turnout.
Report tobermory August 29, 2024 8:27 PM BST
Lake is a bad candidate.

Royce White is something else though lol. I'd seen this guy a few times before, had no idea he was running in the Republican senate primaries. Stunned to see he won that Scared He was a BLM activist 4 years ago, became MAGA overnight and is now to the right of Trump.
Report tobermory August 29, 2024 8:33 PM BST
Trump doesn't need help with turnout. I expect there may be more split ticket voters.

This is the point I forecast for Peak Kamala, and she is well below the 2020 Biden polling. Toss up polls in every battleground , compared to 6+ leads in most states last time.

The chaperoned interview is absolute cringe. Even a bit 'weird'.
Report Escapee August 29, 2024 8:44 PM BST
Trump's last 'interview' was with weirdo musk.

is trump going to do any 'normal' interviews?

I dunno about peak Harris, but peak Trump was 2016, 8 years ago.
Report keyboard_line August 29, 2024 11:58 PM BST
the 2.04/2.06 magnet for both of them could have its work cut out tonight
Report blank August 30, 2024 1:01 AM BST
Those Bloomberg polls were well timed for Kamala backers. It was looking a relatively poor day but now she has flipped RCP's battleground map. Big divergence with Silver's model that expects the polls to be giving a convention bump, and all the other models which look like they just ride through it as normal.

Regarding past polling errors. The pollsters defenders say that past errors don't carry over, pollsters recalibrate for each cycle, and an error is just as likely to go either way. Some people look at things like the WA primary and special elections and can see if anything is off, it matches polling this year apparently.

.https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/
Report keyboard_line August 30, 2024 2:21 AM BST
i think she said as part of that teaser about having a republican in her cabinet
Report keyboard_line August 30, 2024 2:51 AM BST
looks like its over with no real damage
Report tobermory August 30, 2024 2:20 PM BST

Aug 29, 2024 -- 7:01PM, blank wrote:


Those Bloomberg polls were well timed for Kamala backers. It was looking a relatively poor day but now she has flipped RCP's battleground map. Big divergence with Silver's model that expects the polls to be giving a convention bump, and all the other models which look like they just ride through it as normal.Regarding past polling errors. The pollsters defenders say that past errors don't carry over, pollsters recalibrate for each cycle, and an error is just as likely to go either way. Some people look at things like the WA primary and special elections and can see if anything is off, it matches polling this year apparently..https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/


Those polls are more like the Peak Kamala I expected. Though I do think it is the peak, and it is still weaker than Biden 2020. It would be good enough to win right now given accurate polling. But I expect she will struggle to maintain those numbers and I flatly don't believe they are polling Trump accurately. The reasons for underestimating Trump are that Trump has been toxified in the media. And this is more the case in this cycle than the previous two (Jan 6th & 'convicted felon'). And I don't see how they are gonna fix it if Trump voters simply don't tell them.

Report tobermory August 30, 2024 2:22 PM BST

Aug 23, 2024 -- 4:45PM, edy wrote:


Robert F. Kennedy Jr@RobertKennedyJrPresident Trump scammed American workers. He promised to bring back manufacturing, raise wages, fix trade deals, close the carried interest loophole, and help small farmers. But everything President Trump achieved were things the Republican machine wanted. We got a tax cut for Jeff Bezos, deregulation for special interests, and giveaways to agriculture conglomerates.President Trump let the Bush wing of the GOP run all his agencies. His Interior Secretary was an oil & gas lobbyist. His Defense Secretary was a Raytheon lobbyist. His EPA Administrator was a coal lobbyist. His HHS Secretary was a pharmaceutical lobbyist. And his Labor Secretary was a lawyer for mega corporations.President Trump’s supposed support for farmers ($28 billion) all went to Big Ag conglomerates. We had the worst rioting and looting this country had seen since the 60s under President Trump. He inflamed racial tensions and didn’t keep us safe. Instead of using federal law enforcement to stop the rioting, Trump thought it was good optics to let Democrat-run cities burn.President Trump bragged about arming Ukraine more than Obama did. He also walked away unilaterally from the intermediate range nuclear missile treaty with Russia, destabilizing our relationship. He also exacerbated tensions between Ukraine and Russia that ultimately caused a war.Trump appointed the worst neocons to the highest positions of power in his administration: John Bolton, HR McMaster, and Robert O’Brien. Now, Lindsey Graham is one of his top advisors and likely to be his Secretary of State.President Trump bombed Syria, killed an Iranian general, and failed to fulfill his promise of ending the war in Afghanistan.President Trump invented lockdowns. He shut down millions of small businesses and facilitated the greatest wealth transfer to billionaires in this country’s history.President Trump did nothing to solve the opioid crisis. It got far worse under his tenure while his appointees running HHS were in the pocket of big pharma.If you think a second Trump term would be any different, you are engaging in wishful thinking.4:08 AM · May 27, 2024·2.1M Viewshttps://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1794913465594962285What an inspirational man of true principles.


That's the biggest reversal since Kamala said Biden was a racist who she believed had raped a woman.

Report edy August 30, 2024 2:40 PM BST
What did Harris say exactly?
Report edy August 30, 2024 2:57 PM BST
I know that you know that I know you were lying (again), tobermory. There is merely a personal curiosity to learn if you are going to own it for a change.
Report tobermory August 30, 2024 7:08 PM BST
Is an edy fact check imminent?
Report edy August 30, 2024 7:31 PM BST
edy • August 30, 2024 2:57 PM BST
I know that you know that I know you were lying (again), tobermory. There is merely a personal curiosity to learn if you are going to own it for a change.


That's a no then I guess. Shame. The kids these days simply aren't what they used to be.
Report edy August 30, 2024 7:35 PM BST
Back when I used to be young whippersnappers, the people had a basic set of morals, integrity, honour and backbone.
Report blank August 31, 2024 1:03 PM BST
They had hints that polling was wrong in 2020 but didn't address it.

Levy told me that, in 2020, the people working the phones for Siena frequently reported incidents of being yelled at by mistrustful Trump supporters. “In plain English, it was not uncommon for someone to say, ‘I’m voting for Trump—**** you,’” and then hang up before completing the rest of the survey, he said. (So much for the “shy Trump voter” hypothesis.) In 2020, those responses weren’t counted. This time around, they are. Levy told me that including these “partials” in 2020 would have erased nearly half of Siena’s error rate.

If the polls say 60/40 Kam in November but the market says 50/50, Im probably not going to put any extra on Kam. Polling errors maybe but also Trump is more likely to contest the election and be layable in the days after a defeat.
Report blank August 31, 2024 1:09 PM BST
Trump in a bit of a bind with Florida abortion vote. He said he would support it a couple of days ago but has now flipped after a backlash from the pro-life movement, potential to lose votes either way.
Report tobermory August 31, 2024 3:37 PM BST
Trump didn't handle that well though I think the number of votes lost would be tiny either way.

If someone has the right to abortion as a fundamental issue to them they likely have never voted Republican. While only the most fanatical pro life will dump Trump.

eg someone like Matt Walsh is actually fanatical pro life, but he is still supporting Trump.
Report tobermory August 31, 2024 3:48 PM BST
I read that article a while back re correcting the polls by including the 'Trump! fk you!' voters.

I'm a bit sceptical that it would account for half the error.

Usually with a cold calling structure you have to persuade the person to agree a conversation before asking the key questions and people typically terminate the call at that point, though fairly politely.

I think the 'shy' Trump supporters are more likely graduates who are working in environments where they dare not declare Trump support, and so get used to keeping it to themselves.
Report keyboard_line September 1, 2024 11:57 PM BST
blood ell, i turned 50 today
1.99 trump, 2.1 harris
makes total sense
time to roll a fat one
Report keyboard_line September 2, 2024 1:05 AM BST
so poly is going 24% she wins all 6 swings
interesting

https://polymarket.com/event/will-kamala-harris-win-every-swing-state?tid=1725235152982

surely thats not going to happen
Report keyboard_line September 2, 2024 1:16 AM BST
AZ, GE, MI, NV, PA, WI
Report keyboard_line September 2, 2024 1:21 AM BST
****, its ga isnt it ikll try again
Report keyboard_line September 2, 2024 1:22 AM BST
AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI
Report keyboard_line September 2, 2024 1:22 AM BST
****g bang on
Report keyboard_line September 2, 2024 1:24 AM BST
anyway, surely that wont happen
Report GeorgeBrush September 2, 2024 12:05 PM BST
Well, it's certainly more likely than trump winning them all
Report blank September 2, 2024 2:48 PM BST
There's probably only a couple of points difference between winning what she needs and winning all 6. Probably the same with Trump and the popular vote.
Report GeorgeBrush September 3, 2024 8:15 PM BST
Kamala leads on rasmussen lol
Report GeorgeBrush September 3, 2024 8:19 PM BST
Not a well respected poll, but still showing a big swing since the handover
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 9:55 AM BST
Interesting that the magas are saying one of their SC judges has gone a bit rogue, re voting decision in Arizona
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 10:19 AM BST
How far to we think the supreme court would go for trump?  Obviously he'll get the nod in a bush gore scenario, but I'm thinking they wouldn't do anything where they'd be open to ridicule
Report Escapee September 4, 2024 11:43 AM BST

How far to we think the supreme court would go for trump?


In the context of election betting, One should assume the SC will continue to protect Trump from justice and go to great lengths to facilitate a Trump win in 2024.

Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 11:50 AM BST
I think there's a limit to those lengths
Report dave1357 September 4, 2024 12:36 PM BST
not for a couple of them
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 12:53 PM BST
There's 9 iirc
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 1:17 PM BST
Reading between lines it seems that Thomas is starting to irk ACB
Report blank September 4, 2024 2:10 PM BST
They didn't save him in 2020 so he would need a bigger case and more evidence this time
Report blank September 4, 2024 2:17 PM BST
I suppose if it only came down to 1 or 2 states with a tight vote they could get involved, but that's like the bush gore scenario
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 2:18 PM BST
That's a fair point which is ignored by the market i think.  Also kamala having casting vote in the event of the ec tie
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 2:18 PM BST
(that they did nothing in 2020)
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 2:20 PM BST
I suppose the most likely scenario rearing the head is trouble in georgia with the suspected interference and election board
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 2:28 PM BST
That's assuming the senate stays democrat of course. Or is it based on the existing senate anyway?
Report blank September 4, 2024 2:37 PM BST
existing I think
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 2:39 PM BST
So the Sc undoubtedly helps trump out, but with caveats.

The immunity ruling, but leaving obvious ways for judges to say that Trump's actions weren't as part of being president. That seemed a way of putting off his trials until after the election basically, it doesn't stop them.

This arizona vote, where they upheld that new voters should prove citizenship, but didn't require it of existing voters
Report Escapee September 4, 2024 3:20 PM BST
"Need a bigger case"

They're going big.
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 3:56 PM BST
Needs to be high quality leather though, not some cheap plastic shyte that cracks open as soon as it falls off the baggage claim
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 3:56 PM BST
And they're clean out of good lawyers
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 4, 2024 6:21 PM BST
Looks like BF have opened up politics forum again. Are we staying here?
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 6:47 PM BST
Will mr macdonald be there? 

I'd just stay here
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 8:18 PM BST
Nate silver is just playing the market isn't he? Way out of line with every other forecast

Adjusts for the 'dnc bounce', when the polls just stayed the same. 

When it suits his bets he'll say kamala is back in the lead
Report GeorgeBrush September 4, 2024 8:46 PM BST
The jan 6th award ceremony cancelled :(
Report tobermory September 5, 2024 12:06 AM BST

Sep 4, 2024 -- 8:28AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:


That's assuming the senate stays democrat of course. Or is it based on the existing senate anyway?


The new session of Congress always begins January 3rd. Senators who lost in November or retired will be out.

Report blank September 5, 2024 12:50 PM BST
I find the popular vote interesting with the models. Nate has Trump at 2/1 to win over 50% of the vote and 6/4 to win the popular vote, 538 which has Kamala a decent favourite still has Trump 2/1 to win the popular vote. He is 3/1 on here and 5/2 on Poly. Maybe the models are treating Trump like a fresh candidate with plenty of room to grow his support.
Report blank September 5, 2024 12:57 PM BST
Professor Lichtman has called the race for Harris
Report GeorgeBrush September 5, 2024 9:00 PM BST
Jack Smith likely to reveal all the Trump dc case in a brief on 26th of sept

Trump's lawyer was desperately trying to delay it but seems to have failed
Report GeorgeBrush September 5, 2024 9:01 PM BST
This will contain lots of new evidence, previously unavailable
Report A_T September 6, 2024 9:18 AM BST
vlad says he's rooting for kamala
Report GeorgeBrush September 6, 2024 10:23 AM BST
Not sure anyone is fooled.  Magas probably believe it though, lets send some over to protest
Report GeorgeBrush September 6, 2024 6:34 PM BST
26th Sept confirmed for the evidence dump, unless the SC can find a way to intervene
Report GeorgeBrush September 6, 2024 6:56 PM BST
Trump slags off his own lawyers as they stand next to him
Report GeorgeBrush September 6, 2024 6:57 PM BST
Hello supreme court, this guy isn't worth saving is he?
Report GeorgeBrush September 6, 2024 7:42 PM BST
Merchan delays sentencing again
Report freddiewilliams September 11, 2024 2:44 PM BST
****.....zero com.....all.politics till January
Report freddiewilliams September 11, 2024 2:44 PM BST
Daq,,,,,,,,
Bet
Report SamuelMertensBertens September 13, 2024 4:35 PM BST
it's a shame they re-opened the politics phorum. The election thread there has gone to the dogs again.
Report Escapee September 17, 2024 5:23 PM BST
Yeah, the election thread on the politics forum is ruined to the point of it being useless for betting chat.
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