General Betting
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Trump 2.0--2.02
Harris 2.1--2.12
Trump's odds continue to slide since Biden stepped aside and AFAIK, Harris is now leading in the polls.
Harris 2.1--2.12
Trump's odds continue to slide since Biden stepped aside and AFAIK, Harris is now leading in the polls.
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Hopefully this one won't get deleted.
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Let's hope some more people from the other Election threads find this hiding spot incase BF are killing off the Politics forum.
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Trump 2.02--2.04
Harris 2.08--2.10 |
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2.06.... choo x 2
Times claiming there was a trump staffer rebellion after the black journalist disaster |
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Parity!!!
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And it flipped for a second there
The only way back for the reds is to get rid of trump. But how can they do that? |
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Official flip
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Vance been stalking kamala round the airport today. Creepy
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EVERYTHING was going right for Trump for a while. And now he hasn't had a positive media day since Biden stepped down.
Still early in the race and I can still see things turn around, but it feels like need something to go wrong for the DEMS (some big controversy or scandal or a bad performance from Harris) for this to turn around at the moment. |
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Such is the bad smell around trump and vance i don't think the dems really need to do that much
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So the problems are intrinsic. Two bad candidates vs two humans
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Walz is calmer and less shouty than shapiro, better choice in my book
Audio unearthed of trump praising walz, and it's quite fulsome praise! |
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Trump 2.06
Harris 2.04 monumental moment, first time Dem candidate is shorter odds than Trump From an advertising perspective Kamala exudes smiles, Trump exudes Grumpy Whiney old man. It's a slam dunk, smiles sell so much better. |
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ah wondered where you had all gone
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DeSantis tried to exude smiles in contrast to Trump, but the circumstance that he probably had never worked on his smiling before he turned 45 kind of backfired on him and grumpy won over smiles.
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Trump 2.06
Harris 2.04 monumental moment, first time Dem candidate is shorter odds than Trump In a while. In recent times Biden was shorter than Trump after Trump got his verdict. |
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They did such a good job of destroying DeSantis early but they cant lay a glove on Kamala or Tim.
The Tim drank a gallon of horse semen and had to have his stomach pumped doesn't seem to be gaining traction. |
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How long before the calls for trump to go start?
I'm going with Melania being first |
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Polymarket has flipped too
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That video of all the kids hugging Walz is probably the most positive footage of a politician I've ever seen. Tremendous
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I see no chance of Trump withdrawing as there is too much at stake for him, but if he wanted to do so with some grace he could say he had a talk with the family and do some sob story about one of his grandkids saying they don't want grandpa to be shot again. But too much at stake so won't happen. I think the market is pricing in him withdrawing a bit as the Haley odds can't be explained just by the possibility of him being shot again.
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I had some 1000 lay on DeSantis matched earlier that I hadn't cancelled. I can't see Trump dropping out but Im seeing people asking questions about where he is, his schedule is very light the next week or 2, and he is 78.
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I think it will go to open nomination if Trump steps down before the election, and if so I find it very unlike the GOP will pick Vance. If Trump steps down after the election, then Vance becomes president if Trump has won it, but if so there wouldn't be any reason for Trump to resign. So if I have understood things correctly, backing Vance is almost throwing money away with your only hope being Trump getting elected and something then happens to Trump.
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Trump or his allies in the RNC would pick the successor. But Vance is the only option from September onwards. Ballots would have been sent out with his and Trump's name on, anyone else would have to be wrote in and would be up against that Trump/Vance option as well as Harris, plus campaign funds would be non transferable. With Vance you could get a rumour about Trump's health too, Pence was matched at 24 when Trump had covid, although that was serious.
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Is Trump gonna be saved from his charges if someone else from the GOP wins the election, and could pardon him for instance, or would he actually need to become president himself to get out of his mess?
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ah ok, then Vance at 300 is a decent hedge. This is good news for me as I backed him earlier as a hedge if something goes wrong with Trump, and thought I had done my money but then I just need Trump to hang on til September then.
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Mine was at 150 actually but that was before all the catladies comments etc.
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Yeah anyone can pardon him. I'm on Vance too from laying everyone else, hoping he might come in a bit when he is the only option left.
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Trump is still on course to win..
More chance of Kamala giving an interview than Trump withdrawing. |
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I thought Vance was pretty funny at the airport, but the GOP does themselves no favors by going to war with the press. Although I do understand their frustration.
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Harris has gone from 2.18 to 2 in the past 24 hrs or so, but in the popular vote winner from 1.3 to 1.33.
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but fairly low volume in popular winner market.
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1.28--1.29 on here
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I think the popular vote is catching a lot of people out this cycle. A lot of the models are saying Harris only needs a 1.5-2.5 national lead to win the electoral college. Biden only just scraped it with a 4.5% national advantage in 2020.
Nate Silvers odds winner Harris 1.89 Trump 2.14 Popular vote Harris 1.53 Trump 2.88 |
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graphic is on there
.https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1821313118997205469 |
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New Marquette National poll (A+), July 24-Aug 1 LV
Kamala Harris 53% Donald Trump 47% Kamala Harris 50% Donald Trump 42% Kennedy Jr. 6% Wow good pollster |
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Nikki Haley last price matched 70
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