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14 a day strategy

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Replies: 147
By:
Emitdeb
When: 06 Mar 19 15:25
Do wah Diddy's correct imo  Sad..

Think we all love action, which is my downfall. If i could reach my target which isn't difficult at all with a fresh mind.

Had my Deposit limit set at £50pd for some time now. Stops me going rogue. 5 steps forward, 4 steps back would be great tbh.

Fresh mind set is the answer in my case.. Good sense often/eventually just wanders off into a fanciful dreamworld of BS... Blush
By:
The Management
When: 06 Mar 19 15:58
Do Wah Diddy knows the score and is always correct - but a bit worried about him since he stopped SHOUTING.
By:
Charlie
When: 06 Mar 19 16:59
I don't think G Hall is a wind-up merchant but not so sure about him being a lost cause. He's already received some very good advice and I'm interested to see how he intends to go about things.

The Management
I can't remember (not a good guide) you posting before but I do like your style please keep it up!
By:
The Management
When: 06 Mar 19 17:56
Thanks Charlie - ditto.

I stopped posting many years ago - it seems nearly everybody worth talking with has either stopped posting or been banned. 
One of the final straws was at about 6am one morning, my wife looked at my laptop (I had popped out, as smoking on your own patio was still legal back then) and she saw that I had been up all night arguing (about value) with a bloke called Fine As Frogs Hair!

I was actually also trading a market - but had to agree with her that there were better ways I could be spending my time!
By:
The Management
When: 06 Mar 19 19:10
If I remember correctly Fine As Frogs Hair was a millionaire tax exile that lived on a yacht, he had invented some gadget (about which he was very vague) and it had made him independently wealthy plus he had a foolproof profitable system on the football (about which he was even more vague). Despite all this he was on the forum most nights (due to the time difference - obviously he was sipping martinis on his yacht) whilst interrogating people about the "holy grail" - greedy fecker!
By:
roadrunner46
When: 06 Mar 19 19:12
no doubt he made a fortune buying betfair shares tooLaugh he was very interested in the share price
back then fine as frogs hairs.
By:
The Management
When: 06 Mar 19 19:19
That's him RR46!

- I wasted hours trying to explain that the holy grail was back high and/or lay low but he always felt it must be much more complicated than that. I can't imagine he ever had much joy with shares. Seemed to know a lot of complex financial terminology but couldn't grasp the basics of how repeatedly backing a coin flip at 11/10 might be a profitable strategy.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 07 Mar 19 15:09
Withdraw all of your funds apart from a tenner - if you can't grow a tenner you won't be able to grow 1k or 10k.

Probably the best piece of advice you'll ever get.
By:
G Hall
When: 07 Mar 19 18:10
Evening Dr C

So start with a bank of a tenner would seem inconceivable to me, for example what is your stake going to be. How long would it take to build a decent size bank, I'm not sure.
By:
G Hall
When: 07 Mar 19 20:54
I am going to try and grow my bank by 2% per week approximately, now that should be attainable.
By:
ericster
When: 10 Mar 19 14:02
Lose the targets GH Imo. Just concentrate on not losing.
By:
mega88
When: 10 Mar 19 17:28
GHall, invest your time starting a small business or finding a job you enjoy, you won't make any money long term on football. Stop kidding yourself, it's not obtainable ever. It does not matter how good a system you have.
By:
mega88
When: 10 Mar 19 17:32
How can you make money on something you have no control over, the only certainty in football is uncertainty, don't believe me start a Fred and I'll follow you.
By:
mega88
When: 10 Mar 19 17:44
There is a way though, a path to gold, I've seen it on this very forum,
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 10 Mar 19 20:41
Tony Bloom agrees
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 11 Mar 19 01:29
You would be Better placed Leafleting a couple of hours a day a Bit of fresh air As well , better than  sitting for Hours trying to make £14 Plain
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 11 Mar 19 01:33
Download Gruss or Other trading Software See if you can Judge which way a Market pre race will go . GREEN UP For pennies  and move on ,after a week of it you may well spend the Money on a Lenght of Rope Grin
By:
DiscoPete
When: 11 Mar 19 01:37
Ok this is a lengthy reply so do as you wish. If you could make £14 a day consistently then why not £150 or £1500? It’s not really about bank size hence the first reply on this thread meaning you’re thinking is flawed from the start. You’d be a handful out of tens of thousands making a consistent profit so why the small sum. A small sum doesn’t mean you’re be more successful than someone applying the same strategy going for £1500. If you could make that a day I’d retire knowing you’ve got the holy grail.  Instead of being profit focussed turn your attention of being loss focussed. Could you take a 20% drawdown on your bank? What about a 50% drawdown? You will have losing months maybe losing years. The best document of this mental challenge is dailyprofit . Com . Au where his goal is a bit larger than yours but it’s all relative. If you can’t afford to lose £10 a month tha your £14 is blown out of the window from the start. 10 PTS profit a month is good going but you have to be long term focussed which 99% of people aren’t and trying to get £14 a day i know you’ll be a loser.  What happens when you’re down £150 for the month which is very realistic? Will you chase (probably) to try and get back to your target? You loads then have a bad day and lose all your bank. Instead you should start a bank that you can afford to lose. Then look at stakes no more than 1% of bank. Expect long losing runs and being able to go through the losing runs is the holy grail, if you can overcome that then you’ll be in the top 1% on here. Backing 1.01 shots at £1400 or laying 10+ shots at £14 is a sure fire way to ruin. Good luck but re-orientate yourself to asking what you can afford to lose not how much profit you can make a year othwise you’re a dead cert to wipe out.
By:
G Hall
When: 11 Mar 19 12:28
Some good posts and excellent one from disco Pete.

I am sick of losing on here, and just want to turn it around or give it up. I basically just want to turn it around and make a steady profit, year in year out.
By:
ericster
When: 11 Mar 19 16:12
Good post and some good points raised DiscoPete. I won't pretend to be one of the golden few. I'm on a bad run right now actually but I'm tweaking, always tweaking, and... I'm hopeful. I DO think that the strategy that I'm working with , at the very least, gives my a/c balance some hope of lasting. I won't throw my hard earned it, I'm way past that nonsense. It sinks or it swims. Full stop.

I like what you say about the draw-down.  I never have any expectation or calculated idea of what any particular play will give me. I play and I hope not to lose and when the situation goes green I'm out of there. The proof in the pudding, I would respectfully suggest, is whether or not the wins, over time, outstrip the losses. That really is the bottom line isn't it.
By:
Do wah Diddy
When: 11 Mar 19 16:17
Once a mug  punter  always a mug punter  .us mug punters will never learn we have a gene in us that won't  let us learn from  our mistakes .we suffer from mugnosis its well known throughout the medical world . Once you've been diagnosed with it there's no hope and no cure .you just have to go through life realising your a mug it's hard to admit it .but I'm lucky I knew at a very early age that i was a mug and lots and lots of other people realised I was a mug and took advantage of my mugnosis

Those who notice we have it seem to benefit from it. Loads and loads  of people have benefited from us mugs .were not hard to find we stick out like a sore thumb to a certain kind of person and there's millions who notice us and benefit
By:
Charlie
When: 11 Mar 19 20:41

Mar 11, 2019 -- 6:28AM, G Hall wrote:


Some good posts and excellent one from disco Pete.I am sick of losing on here, and just want to turn it around or give it up. I basically just want to turn it around and make a steady profit, year in year out.


G Hall
But what are you doing about it?

Stop dreaming about £14 a day and growing the bank by 2% a month. Get real.

I asked you to post 20 bets with reasoning and why the odds were good. You posted one without explanation. Even if you posted something like I just fancied it then that would give us something to go on. If you're going to win then you have to put in some effort.

How many bets a day to do have?

By:
trebor
When: 12 Mar 19 01:37
I agree with Charlie if you really want help it would be a good idea to give your thinking behind the bets you place,  maybe look back over your statement and give the last 10?

There is some good advice given on here, I like the withdraw all but £10 for a few reasons other than the obvious you lose less. firstly it may make you think about the best way to grow it, the reason I say that is because of your response to the suggestion So start with a bank of a tenner would seem inconceivable to me, for example what is your stake going to be. How long would it take to build a decent size bank, I'm not sure. this indicates to me that the only way you see to make a profit at present is to place bets, as I have said before you can treat this place as a bookies if you like, but it is an exchange and you are not using the advantage that gives.

That may make no sense to you at present, and probably means no more to you than the people telling you to 'find an edge', but where do you find an edge??   Well, another piece of advice given was to use some of the money you withdraw to get an API, it will enable you to see full market depth (all bets in the market), with that available you now have at least a chance of finding an edge, study the market and ask yourself why are people or lots of people asking for that bet? use print screen on your PC to keep the info and work things out.

So to answer your two questions, 1; what stake should I use?  well you can split your £10 down into mini little chunks if you like and bet with it and go for your 2% a week, or at least go half way to treating this place as an exchange and split it into 4x or 8x £10 chunks to bet with, but I would suggest you find the correct markets (some will be better than others) and empower your £10 using it over and over again in the same market, you might only have £10 but that should not stop you putting 100's of pounds through the market.

Question 2; How long to build a decent size bank?  well hopefully your £10 seems a little more valuable now and 2% rather small, that £10 will also be growing as well of course, keep searching and stay disciplined and it will grow quicker than you imagine.
By:
DenzilPenberthy
When: 12 Mar 19 04:59
There's simple facts here clearly the OP currently doesn't know enough to win betting in the first place and no magic staking plan will change that,if such a thing existed nobody would bother with work they'd just sit on exchanges all day with premium charges being the only concern.
The solution is to acquire more knowledge a given sport spend more time going over data,replays etc. and have factual reasoning for your bet without guessing,find a price that you think would be a value bet and go from there with some sensible staking and bank control (plenty advice above).
Give it 6 months or so and if you haven't won or at least can show ACTUAL FACTUAL REASONING why you may win in the future it's time to accept you don't know enough and will continue to lose,from here giving up is the best option imo. unless you enjoy losing (some like to think it's entertaining).
By:
nathanrh
When: 12 Mar 19 16:33
IMHO - the poster and anyone else for that matter looking for a system doesn't even need £10 (better to save it for when you have a tangible method / system to bet real money with). Just paper trade your proposals, record the odds, analyse the results, logic etc. Then when you discover the efficiency you are up against it won't have cost you anything ;-).

And therein is the real rub, it just isn't fun unless you are playing with real money.....
By:
trebor
When: 12 Mar 19 20:17
You cant honestly believe that every horse starts the race at it's true odds surly? or if 30 horses start a race at 2/1 this week as long as 10 win is that the basis of your efficient market?  some should have been shorter and some longer, and someone who knows their racing will back or lay the ones they have a strong enough opinion on to finish ahead, subject to PC of course, which then I might start to agree with you.

What about the movement in odds leading up to the race, these horses that started at 3/1 will almost certainly have moved up and down in odds massively creating another chance to profit, in a tight efficient market they have to. Same with in running, the book is still about 103%, depending on your horses racing style may be better to wait till in running to place your bet.

What about when the race gets delayed while a horse or two take longer to load, is this a piece of luck for the market makers to correct what must have been mistakes in the book, as the odds still move, sometimes by a lot.

No imo a tight efficient market is an advantage not a disadvantage, makes the market more predictable and easier to read.
By:
nathanrh
When: 12 Mar 19 22:55
trebor - we agree.

The markets aren't totally efficient (they don't need to be, because the commission monster is also waiting); a few years back someone actually did a lot of data analytics with a spreadsheet covering I think some 220,000 horse races, he concluded there were often inefficient prices however they were in the very low single digit percentage range and they were almost always eroded over time), even the small edges that remained lost to commission.

I'm certain there are undoubtedly those making a living on horse racing where specialist knowledge (20 years at a particular track) / insider activity is prevalent, those are just the kind of edges the casual punter is very unlikely to stumble upon.

I wish the OP well, he has been given some very salient advice, I fear however he likes the thrill of the action more than the hard work and discipline required to profit here.
By:
Do wah Diddy
When: 12 Mar 19 23:04
I like trebors view on this
By:
peckerdunne
When: 13 Mar 19 00:12
If this lad wants to make money from betting the first thing he need to do is stop betting.
By:
G Hall
When: 13 Mar 19 12:47
The biggest problem I have is overstaking and chasing, I guess I'm not alone. I can have a period where I am doing OK, staking good, mindset good, in a pretty good place, then bang get caught on something then the urge to get back the losing stake asap takes over. There are times I get lucky but generally it spirals and next thing back to square one.

There are days I actually know I will do OK, put in the hard work, staking is good and all is good. The compulsion to retrieve losses ASAP is the biggest problem I have to overcome I think.
By:
G Hall
When: 13 Mar 19 13:09
An example of what I do when the mindset is good, in Azerbaijan at the moment Qarabag V agsu. The over 0.5 goals market was matched as low as 1.01 not for much but quite a bit at 1.02/03.The HT score is 0-0.

I have stepped in just after HT and backed over 1.5 goals at 1.51, when/if the first goal goes in I will cash out provided a profit can be made.
By:
G Hall
When: 13 Mar 19 13:44
I have now backed over 0.5 at 4 to recoup stakes on 1.5
By:
G Hall
When: 13 Mar 19 13:53
Ah well back to the gardening
By:
peckerdunne
When: 13 Mar 19 16:34
this is a mickey take
By:
The Management
When: 13 Mar 19 17:34
The Management    06 Mar 19 09:23 

It's official - you are either a lost cause or a wind up merchant (suspect the latter).
Either way - I'm out, You're fired!


A sad state of affairs though, that the busiest/only active thread on the General Betting Forum is a wind-up.
By:
G Hall
When: 13 Mar 19 19:02
What's up guys I put up my bet and it lost simple as
By:
The Management
When: 14 Mar 19 16:32
GH - i'm bored with all these cavalry charges and there's no more filthy each way races so I will humour you.

What is your view on the Chelsea price (away to Dynamo Kiev at 17:55) today?

They were 2.20 yesterday, now (at time of writing) they are 1.91/1.92 - Higuain hasn't travelled (not in the squad), the pitch is apparently a disgrace, Chelsea leading 3:0 from the first leg. You can google/twitter for more info.

Do you have a view on what price they will be by 17:55? Note: I'm not asking you to predict the outcome of the match or asking you to have a bet, just asking your view on what the price will be at 17:55.
By:
G Hall
When: 14 Mar 19 16:42
It is way to short imo at the moment but has been shortening all day. I think a more realistic price is about 2.25
By:
G Hall
When: 14 Mar 19 16:43
The price they will actually be at ko is more likely to be where it is at the moment
By:
G Hall
When: 14 Mar 19 16:49
I would request a lay at 1.9 with a few to green later, I will also back btts in Napoli V red bull
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