General Betting
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Does a football betting system that works exist?
Does a football betting system that works exist?
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Replies: 187
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@nathanrh
like i mentioned earlier, i am moving away from looking at fixtures purely in the quantitative sense. i look more at the qualitative research of fixtures and don't need to have an in depth knowledge of the league. as you may have already worked out, it is more of a ratings based selection process. your input is appreciated and as you correctly state, i am waiting for it to revert......... |
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@inner city sumo
thanks. it is fun coming up with an idea and giving it a go. in the old days on the forum there was always someone trialing something and going down in flames.... i was not going to bother doing this because of the attitudes of some forum users who instead of being constructive with criticism, just talk trash and bring a thread down. i'll see how this goes for now, not sure how disciplined i can be to post all selections as some come into force quite late, so i'll just take the after timing jibes  |
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there appear to only be a couple of possible selections until Thursday.
Lay Appalon Smirnis Lay AGF Aarhus As before, selections may slip in our out, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update |
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Lay Appalon Smirnis +0.95
Lay AGF Aarhus +0.95 14/16 (87.5%) profit 3.3pts |
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2 winners - just a thought, both of those (especially the Greek one) must have been pretty high prices, can you post up the prices you are laying at? An 87.5% S/R is meaningless unless we can see the prices taken ;-).
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i agree, a %figure is no good without having something to compare it to. the average odds for selections is 4.96 for the last 150 selections, of which the last 16 have been posted on here. this gives a value of 79.84% required to break even not taking into account commission. as you can see from the results the two losing selections were at 6.0. there is obviously an acceptable operating price range and i use automated software to make the selection 30 mins before kickoff, so it is literally fire and forget.
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lay Livingston
odds have drifted into the price range today. we'll see what happens @kickoff -30 mins |
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lay Livingston +0.95
15/17 (88.23%) Profit 4.25pts |
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Better factor in that commission rate - it isn't insignificant.
At some point you are going to have to think a little about how to maximise the profits with something other than level staking (correct me if you using something different). Of course I'm still projecting that your strike rate will mean revert to the prices you are taking and then you will at best lose to your commission rate. A couple of losers on the trot in this price range (they will most definitely happen) and you are down in flames. Good luck. |
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I factor in the commission with the results by allowing 0.95 points for a positive result.
I use level stakes on here as it is easier to keep track and then don’t then get into a discussions over the merits of various staking plans. I said at the start of this that I expect the results to tail off, with posting the selections on the forum to be the kiss of death... I’ll maybe go for a little longer and see how it goes. Thanks for the interest. |
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Lay Argentinos Jrs
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Lay Arminia Bielefeld
Lay Niort Possibles depending on odds @kickoff Lay ADO den Haag Lay Cremonese |
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Lay Argentinos Jrs +0.95
Lay Arminia Bielefeld -3.9 Lay Niort odds too high Possibles depending on odds @kickoff Lay ADO den Haag odds to short Lay Cremonese +0.95 -2 pts for the day 17/20 (85%) Profit 2.25pts |
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sat 15th
some of these will shorten too much or drift too high, but are possible lays. i expect 10-12 of the 17 to be in range; Ankaragucu Greuther Furth Bochum Spezia Cardiff Bournemouth Vejle Stoke Reading Sheff Weds Dundee Motherwell Oviedo Galatasary NAC Breda Grasshoppers Zurich Mouscron |
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Ankaragucu odds drifted outside
Greuther Furth +0.95 Bochum +0.95 19/22 (86.36%) Profit 4.15pts |
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Spezia +0.95
Cardiff odds too high Bournemouth +0.95 Vejle +0.95 Stoke odds too short Reading +0.95 Sheff Weds odds too high Dundee odds too high Motherwell -3.1 Oviedo +0.95 Galatasary +0.95 NAC Breda +0.95 Grasshoppers Zurich +0.95 Mouscron +0.95 sat 15th profit +7.35pts 28/32 (87.5%) Total Profit 9.6pts |
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Good performance. Even your non-selections would have done you proud ;-) (worth tracking these just to see if they deviate from your expected performance i.e. are you excluding potentially more profitable selections?).
One thing I don't like however is the number of selections and leagues you are playing in, since you aren't using anything data driven I remain to be convinced that you have a long term sustainable edge over so many markets (especially one as so well studied as match odds). Gl. |
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i understand the most common way to look at match selection is using recent form, h2h, team selection, etc, which needs knowledge of the league/teams et al.
i am looking at selections in a different way. i'm not sure 15 selections over a full friday/saturday fixture list is a large amount, but then again i don't know other peoples selection patterns or what is considered the norm. the leagues i play in are the top leagues of europe and south america, which have the data i require available and can provide enough selections. in fact, after analysis i only use about 40% of the selections that are identified. i too remain to be convinced about the strike rate, which is why i am on v small stakes while confidence is gained, or destroyed.... thanks for the interest. |
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sun 16th Lays
i only expect about 9-11 of these to be in range Antalayaspor Chievo Emmen Empoli Parma Venezia Lugano Trabzonspor Gimnastic Tenerife Zulte-Warengem Lugo Zaragoza Erzurum BB Pescara |
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Antalayaspor +0.95
Chievo +0.95 Emmen -4.6 Empoli +0.95 Parma +0.95 Venezia +0.95 Lugano +0.95 Trabzonspor +0.95 Gimnastic -4.3 Tenerife +0.95 Zulte-Warengem +0.95 Lugo +0.95 Zaragoza odds too high Lecce +0.95 odds came into range Erzurum BB mon 17th Pescara mon 17th sun 16th result 11/13 (84.6%) 1.55pts 39/45 (86.7%) Total Profit 11.15pts |
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Still above your target strike rate but as the number of selections increases you are at a point where 1 or 2 more losers will rapidly eat your profit (especially as you are laying well above your average lay odds in the Turkish game today).
Please keep on posting - will be an interesting outcome. |
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as you can see from the results, if odds are outside a desired range, the match isn't selected.
it is always an issue with mid/high odds ranges that a couple of poor results can make a dent, another reason to protect your bank with a decent staking plan and discipline.... on the other side of the coin, it is possible to have extended runs of positive results to insure against the bad runs, hopefully good runs come first..... |
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mon 17th
Erzurum BB odds too high Pescara mon 17th sun 16th result 1/1 (100%) 0.95pts 40/46 (86.9%) Total Profit 12.1pts |
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tue 18th
Lay Stuttgart selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update |
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weds 19th
Lay Hannover selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update |
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weds 19th
Lay Hannover selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update |
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weds 19th
Lay Hannover selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update |
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tue 18th
Lay Stuttgart odds to high |
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weds 19th
Lay Hannover. +0.95 41/47 (87.2%) 13.05pts |
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Fri 21st
Lay Greuther Furth Lay Ajjaccio GFCO Lay Alaves |
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2 of these currently winning.....
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Fri 21st
Lay Greuther Furth +0.95 Lay Ajjaccio GFCO -3.3 Lay Alaves odds too high -2.35pts 42/49 (85.7%) 9.75pts |
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correction
Fri 21st Lay Greuther Furth +0.95 Lay Ajjaccio GFCO -3.3 Lay Alaves odds too high -2.35pts 42/49 (85.7%) 10.7pts |
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@nathanrh
I saw that. i must admit I was happy when I saw the selection hadn't been taken on Alaves. |
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I'll believe you when you say you didn't take the Alaves selection; however if you intend for anyone to take the thread remotely seriously important to state your odds ranges because excluding losing bets or lying about prices taken is pretty much no.1 on the tipster scam list.
I appreciate you might not care about the above and that you aren't promoting any tipping service so this might not matter to you ;-). Holiday season might see you experience quite a degree of mean reversion - especially laying away teams. Continued Gl. |
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@nathanrh
you're correct, i am not on here to promote a service, or myself. i use an automated bot to lay teams at a certain time within an odds range depending on certain factors. as you have mentioned before, many of the teams that have not been in range have still been winners. i think the matches that haven't been in range would still be a plus figure, and also right at the start i took into account a 6.0 loss hat wasn't mentioned. people can make of that what they wish... although you are rightly sceptical, thanks for being poitive in your comments. i didn't start on this thread to be taen seriously, it was just a way to verify what I'm doing for a short period. if you are interested, I'm on a 89.2% strike rate after 132/148 lays since 3rd November. do the binomdist on this and see the odds of this being positive with a s/r of 85% (0.85). |
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correction of really poor spelling...
@nathanrh you're correct, i am not on here to promote a service, or myself. i use an automated bot to lay teams at a certain time within an odds range depending on certain factors. as you have mentioned before, many of the teams that have not been in range have still been winners. i think the matches that haven't been in range would still be a plus figure, and also right at the start i took into account a 6.0 loss that wasn't mentioned. people can make of that what they wish... although you are rightly sceptical, thanks for being positive in your comments. i didn't start on this thread to be taken seriously, it was just a way to verify what I'm doing for a short period. if you are interested, I'm on a 89.2% strike rate after 132/148 lays since 3rd November. do the binomdist on this and see the odds of this being positive with a s/r of 85% (0.85). |
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sat 23rd
lay: Magdeburg heidenheim ac Ajaccio frosinone carpi herha berlin werder Bremen Fulham qpr millwall st Mirren Livingston hearts santa clara aves lokeren Kortrijk Valladolid Dijon Toulouse caen guingamp nimes selections may slip in our out of range, unfortunately I'm not online full time to update |
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Magdeburg - WIN
heidenheim - LOST ac Ajaccio - LOST frosinone - WIN carpi - LOST herha berlin - WIN werder Bremen - WIN Fulham - WIN qpr - LOST millwall - WIN st Mirren - LOST Livingston - WIN hearts - WIN santa clara - LOST aves - WIN lokeren - WIN Kortrijk - WIN Valladolid - WIN Dijon - WIN Toulouse - LOST caen - WIN guingamp - LOST nimes - WIN Lost 8/23 - way below your 88% strike rate so far and way below the 80% you need to break even. Interesting to see how many of these 'losers' were bets you took. Because that will be a fairly substantial loss based on the above. Gl. |
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sat 22nd
lay: Magdeburg 0.95 heidenheim odds out of range ac Ajaccio odds out of range frosinone 0.95 carpi -4.8 herha berlin 0.95 werder Bremen odds out of range Fulham odds out of range qpr -3.5 millwall 0.95 st Mirren -4.75 Livingston 0.95 hearts odds out of range santa clara -3.4 aves odds out of range lokeren odds out of range Kortrijk odds out of range Valladolid odds out of range Dijon odds out of range Toulouse -4.9 caen odds out of range guingamp -3.2 nimes 0.95 -18.85pts 6/12 (50%) 48/61 (78.7%) -8.15pts |