General Betting
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Betfair Exchange advert just sighted on Sky Sports 1 during the Super Rugby!
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Yep this is the worst week i have ever known for horse racing, unless it is a big meeting its not worth turning my computer on
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wondering if we are in the grip of some recession , the pubs seem empty as well citing lack of funds .
Belts tightening |
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are the purple ones doing much?
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purple have never done much
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PC TAX KILLING THE SITE,Was bound to happen.
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Coner correct. Feels like I've been treading water this year but had a few wins and am already back paying pc. Laying out of some outright bets and putting them on elsewhere instead now.
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8th year in a row now exchange has "died because of pc"
i am sure there is nothing that can stop you guys from using this convenient excuse well into the 2020s..... |
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An excuse for what? Liquidity is down, I wouldn't say pc is the only reason but for a lot of existing customers it is one of the main ones.
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liquidity isn't even down, yet here "a lot of existing customers" (ca. 0,001% of them that is) manage to identify not one but multiple "main reasons" for something that isn't
it's comically bad. and it certainly won't stop |
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Taken from the betangel forum
pre off Horse Racing -4% - £10.31bn vs. £9.88bn Soccer -27% - £5.73bn vs. £4.16bn Tennis -31% - £1.36bn vs. £0.94bn Greyhound Racing -10% - £0.72bn vs. £0.65bn Cricket +57% - £0.37bn vs. £0.58bn Basketball -48% - £0.22bn vs. £0.11bn American Football -2% - £0.1bn vs. £0.09bn Golf -14% - £0.09bn vs. £0.08bn Australian Rules -39% - £0.07bn vs. £0.04bn inplay Soccer -13% - £13.73bn vs. £11.98bn Tennis -7% - £9.94bn vs. £9.24bn Cricket 73% - £5.17bn vs. £8.95bn Horse Racing -5% - £2.63bn vs. £2.49bn Basketball -16% - £0.7bn vs. £0.59bn Golf -1% - £0.25bn vs. £0.25bn Darts -11% - £0.17bn vs. £0.15bn Snooker -25% - £0.17bn vs. £0.13bn American Football -8% - £0.15bn vs. £0.14bn |
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Liquidity down in every sport bar cricket, yet some say liquidity isn't down!
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BB , what dates are they comparing the data too ?
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They exactly now whats happening. As long they are going to be happy from sportsbook profits, they wont change anything. Only ugly people remain here, people who cant have other work in real world are here yet. Smarter and normal people have gone. But hey! They just had an arguments for the first time since merger a week ago. Some of them were protesting because some of them received to small pay rise from 400k to 475k per head in board a year is not enough. Poor traders figting for every pounds vs rich board members earning 500 000 pa. Its them against us. Breon thinks that cash race with unreachable targets bring liquidity here
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https://www.paddypowerbetfair.com/~/media/Files/P/Paddy-Power-Betfair/documents/trading-update-2016.pdf
In their trading update word "sportsbook" was cited 13 times, "exchange"2 times - Its clear where their focus is. We are sportsbook, and we will be sportsbook forever now. |
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Those numbers show trading volume, not liquidity. Trading volume and liquidity usually move in opposite directions.
I do see decreased liquidity in some cricket markets, resulting from increased trading volume. I also see decreased trading volume and increased liquidity in AFL, to the point it's not worth the bother. |
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Whilst higher volume might not necessarily mean higher liquidity (although I think so generally), I'm sure they don't move in opposite directions.
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The high vloumes bets would have brought liquidity to the market on one condition: if those bets were taken by "traders, punters"(they would have tried try to sell bets later on) but those bet are taken by "betfair" who are offsetting their P/L they have on sportsbook for the partciluar game. Bigger volumes does not mean bigger liquidity. Liquidity is when we have constant flow, when someone is buying selling bets regularly.
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There maybe some smaller markets/sports where increased liquidity leads to fewer obvious misprices, and those are the only prices punters on bf are interested in, not surprising with the pc to contend with.
However the vast majority of the volume comes from the main markets so I don't see this as an argument for lower volume being good for bf or customers, if enough punters are interested then liquidity = volume and vice versa. |
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There's is Chinav Japan volleyball game now. % years ago, olympic qulafication game I would have been able to make a profit of 50-100 pounds per game. Now...
86gb after 2 sets are mathed on whole market!- That's what lack of liquidity is. Thats how betfair changed. |
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higher volumes - fewer people . Seems quite straight forward and logical to me
is the higher volume simply BF laying off their sportsbook bets ? - surely so ,and is an automatic process |
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Coachbuster, the volumes have gone down. Therefore you think more people are using the exchange recently? I don't get how you've made that link and it isn't what I've noticed.
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what pxb says Bongo
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I believe fewer people are using the exchange but more using SB and other bookies ,but maybe more bookies are using BF to lay off their increased risk (maybe)
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aside from the PC etc ,you have to bear in mind that BF is still a new product and the sharp minds have given it a go and have moved on - a lot of those sharp minds eneded up as net LOSERS ,but sharp minds won't keep losing ,and you won't get a new sharp mind from someone who isn't sharp to start with .
The turnover of people being born won't keep pace and many countries have closed the doors anyway .You need another 300 million or so folk to appear from no-where (in this country). This isn't advanced science ,just a fact of life |
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but maybe more bookies are using BF to lay off their increased risk (maybe)
I've seen that for years in cricket markets, but there are indications in other sports. I was looking to trade an AFL market at the weekend, which traded 18.5k, normally enough for me to make a profit. However, 18k came in one lump, which would have been a bookie laying off. In Australia, Bookies advertise heavily, while there is zero advertising for the bf exchange, so it's not surprising we see a decline in small bet recreational punters on the exchange in Australian sports. |
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Yes the continual decline is sickening,
the idea of betfair is great but without market depth it becomes pathetic. Sadly most markets are now pathetic and a waste of time. TAB fixed odds prices being better then betfair prices on Australian pacing is the only way to go at the moment hence market depths in this area on betfair are worse then pathetic is an example... |
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Indeed.co.uk
Reed.co.uk |
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Would love to know where the horse racing backers/layers have disappeared to. Surely they won't have any accounts left with the bookies!
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So would i cause i would go with them, this is getting beyond a joke now, today was awful.
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Racing is awful - in many cases double figure amounts are barely on offer in the three back and three lay windows
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don't think they have gone anywhere else, just think that many would be pro gamblers are only going to give so much time and effort until it becomes more viable to sell ice creams or clean windows for a living
 seriously,investors expect a certain % yield . |
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I've improved my reading, work rate, French and sex life thanks to the the liquidity going mammaries up.
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the other people in the library, however, have started to complain.
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Very efficient markets combined with the steady leak in the bucket of 5% + commission makes profits hard to achieve and accelerates losses if you don't have a strong edge. Once the novelty of the interactive betting of an exchange wears off the reality of losses or very low earning per hour drive away sharper minds. Also the "we are gonna get rich" vibe has gone. The tennis forum live match trading used to be full of dreamers who thought they had hit the pot of gold. It was all comments about "huge green" "on board the Fed Express" etc. I used to skim read them in horror watching big amounts committed on some player close to match point who would go on to lose. The death of that forum was symptomatic of the peak and decline of betfair's market appeal.
The average punter who expects to lose goes elsewhere. The exchange has evolved to a point where it has lost its competitive advantage in terms of perceived potential to win heaps. Those who hang around are sober grinders, saddos and few who somehow have carved out a profitable niche. |
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It's a general malaise all round, look at all the forums for trading software no one posts anything anymore, betfair blogs are dying,,,,the whole scene needs a shot in the arm.
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As for someone like me always a small punter /mainly for fun
Don't bother now with horses unless big meeting as everytime a bet showing etc 9.00 you submit and it go's to 8.8 in running it goes to 8.00 trying to get you to move to lower odds Also in other markets you may get on at say 1.77 in cricket/tennis as soon as you are matched1.78 pops up instantly without the delay That is why small people like me are disappearing as no point wasting time like we did years ago. |