NO LIQUIDITY ON BETFAIR

there are a lot of things i don't and never will understand

XM didn't add to liquidity, it's harder to get orders matched since XM came in. Guessing its financially beneficial for BF to have it switched on.

Liquidity on the Euro's is terrible. Significantly down on 2012 by a HUGE amount. Doesn't matter what the score is or whether England are playing, is so far behind 2012. Probably 50% of the last tournament.

Pre off has plunged further than inplay so that probably means that a lot of that money is going to the sportsbook now and never reaches the exchange.

I can only really comment on Horse Racing, Rugby League and Football markets. All are continuing to decline on the exchange.

Doesn't matter what the score is or whether England are playing, is so far behind 2012.
_____________

Hartani - yes ,that is without doubt .

I was comparing more with 2014 WC.

I think there was a huge drop off around 2013

i';d argue the overall volume still exists on the exchange.   Its just the volume of markets has also increased and money is spread far too thinly

I this it has declined outright, but I would concur that the vast number of markets don't help with liqudity.

JESUS CHRIST.
            The only thing that has f--ked this place is --- the TAX.
How the hell can you expect punters to pay 20--40--- 60 percent ,and spend hour after hour seeding markets.
I was very lucky i was about from day one,i used to seed all the time ,now never,every time i want a bet i have to look elsewhere.
I used to promote betfair every time i could NEVER now.
The old betfair crew promised me i would always be looked after,turns out all lies.
No i am not bitter i got a start from betfair,and will always be thankful.
BUT this is not how betfair was supposed to be.

also who would take the plunge and go full time on betfair now knowing about the PC

I used to trade horse racing place markets in 2007/08 and never had a problem getting £1k matched during the day up to half an hour before a race on just one horse, had a look yesterday at a couple of place markets around 40/50 mins before off time and only £1/2k matched on the whole market??? with just peanuts either side waiting to be matched. I give up trading the place market towards the end of 2008 as the recession and the PC killed the market and was then struggling to get just a few hundred matched.
I now trade cricket match odds and innings runs and liquidity is always good on these two markets but there is also another 25 sub markets that are a total waste of time and quite often you will see £0 matched on most of these markets with plenty of empty boxes and this is just half an hour before a match will start. The other day half an hour before England were playing only £2k had been matched in these sub markets.
BF sort the PC out and make it fair for everyone, how can someone make £10k in one year and pay more commission than someone who has made £100k in one year. IT'S A BONKERS BACKWARD SYSTEM.
Tax the winners that are hitting it hard day in day out but don't smash the small guys that are making just £20k a year.
Keep it simple and do it like our UK tax system and if I've paid £100 commission don't change it and tell me I've only paid £50 as implied commission.
I'm now not far off paying PC and I do like to have a punt every now and again but if I start paying PC my punts will have to be placed elsewhere so only BF loses.

I got the dreaded call that I was expecting this week. Going from 20% to 60% PC.

I've been on here full time for around 5-6 years.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do for work yet, but I certainly won't be full time on here for more than a couple of months.

I obviously don't expect any sympathy - I've made over £250k net and enjoyed myself doing so, but it doesn't half seem crazy driving liquidity providers like me away. On some of the biggest markets, I'll comfortably provide 10% of liquidity, so it only takes a handful of people like me to leave and certain former big markets will become wastelands.

If I could foresee the exchange growing, I might have considered committing myself to staying on. However, several markets that used to be very fruitful for me are now almost moribund, so carrying on is not a realistic option.

The delicate exchange ecosystem is being hit at both the top and bottom. PC and a lack of regular punters are forcing liquidity providers away. Regular punters are dwindling due to the dead side markets, sportsbook and almost no advertising. These twin issues have conspired to bring about the death spiral that is currently occurring.


Betfair are playing a game with the current PC levels - convincing themselves that full timers need Betfair more than Betfair needs the full timers. It's a game Betfair will ultimately lose.

has anyone spoke to betfair recently regarding all the concerning issues on this thread ?

The whizz kids, indeed it was possible to get decent money matched 8 or 9 years ago without having to wait until 30 seconds before the off to get more than a pittance on. Hence if you knew your stuff on racing you were able to beat the SP for a grand or two.
Nowadays it is effectively SP bets only if you want to have more than a minimal amount on any horses that is not a short priced favourite or running at a big meeting. And if you want to bet with a bookmaker (if you can get on that is) you will find the prices driven by the shrapnel trade on this site as well.

There have been races that have jumped off today with less than 100k matched in total in the WIN market. There is no doubt in my mind that the decline is terminal for racing punting on here away from the big meetings.

If Ascot is anything to go by, the big meetings seem in trouble as well now.

Liquidity and volume traded seemed well down on last year

Bf do not want u nerds seeding markets that the can seed themselves ...they spend a fortune acquiring mug punters
if u guys win laying said mugs ..u will pay through the nose ..smell the coffee-it is over

It will be interesting to see what ppbf do if the liquidity and volume declines are as big as some are saying. I only trade Aus sports and cricket, and Aus sports never had much volume with no online inplay here and cricket volume has increased as noted below.

The merger valued bf as double that of PP (adjusted for profit). Assuming the exchange is half bf's business, and the rest is nothing special. That makes the exchange valued at 4 times the sportsbook etc. That valuation will be based on growth prospects. If the exchange volumes decline, the stock price will take a hammering as will executive bonuses.

PPBF may have painted themselves into a corner with the PC.

SpursTBB, it's not as simple as that. Betfair must taken a sizeable chunk of its revenue from PC. This must have already started to decline significantly, and is only going one way. If they end up interfering more and more in the markets, they no longer have an exchange. It's simply another sportsbook, but one for which you have to pay commission on winning bets.

Also, if winning exchange users were bad for the exchange and company overall, why wouldn't they just close accounts?

I had a listen to a few Q&A BF webcasts last night and every time the Banks asked about PC Breon avoided the question in the best possible way. The Banks are well aware of the Big liquidity players not happy about the PC which can only be a good thing.

It is a fundamental paradox at the heart of the business. They need PC to maintain their revenue stream, but it is something that is slowly but surely asphyxiating the exchange.

To me, it's symptomatic of the short-termism in today's business world. No CEO or board member wants to be the one to cut revenue for the sake of long term viability. After all, it will affect the share price, and thus their bonus and future employability. Many of the business' executives are likely to have jumped ship when the chickens come home to roost.

true dat

Would betfair and their shareholders be better off currently without the premium charge? I really couldn't say.
Will the exchange revenues keeping on falling and eventually bring down the value of the company? Almost certainly.

pablo-fanque
01 Jul 16 18:00 Joined: 22 Oct 14 | Topic/replies: 2,700 | Blogger: pablo-fanque's blog
has anyone spoke to betfair recently regarding all the concerning issues on this thread ?

I've spoken to a couple of people at Betfair recently and both saying there are positive developments in the pipeline.  They've just set up an exchange team/department and recently hired a head of exchange.  What they're going to do, I have no idea though.  Knowing them, it'll be more interference such as XMXM or seeding markets themselves.

I've been complaining about the side markets rapidly declining in terms of liquidity/number of participants but it appears main markets are now declining.  For example, in this week's PGA golf, £1m was matched before the start versus £2m for same tournament last year.  Euro 2016 QF match odds been £5.3m and £7.3m whereas in Euro 2012 the lowest amount for a QF was £10m. 

I have asked for some clarity for all of us as to what's happening and what the future holds and they've taken that on board.  Hopefully we'll start seeing some positive news before it's too late.

Golf has seen a very sharp decline in past few months. Really has fallen off a cliff. Never been huge in terms of volumes traded, but as you say Templeton, it feels like a good 50% down.

I've spoken to a couple of people at Betfair recently and both saying there are positive developments in the pipeline.  They've just set up an exchange team/department and recently hired a head of exchange.  What they're going to do, I have no idea though.  Knowing them, it'll be more interference such as XMXM or seeding markets themselves.
Well befair seeding there own markets no chance they would only strike a bet when they made a rick.

Golf definitely gone into sharp decline the last few months, even the US Open felt pretty much dead.  Didn't help that we didn't know the score for half the final day mind you.   Put it partly down to the Euros but if the Open is as dead it looks like a real sign of decline.

If liquidity is decreasing because the customers are going on the sportsbook
it's very unlikely Betfair are going to worry too much about it.

Intresting stats by Templeton Peck about the Euro QFs.

There is no shortage of money available to back/lay on these markets,
which suggests that there are a lot less punters using the exchange
than 4 years ago.

I doubt very much that this has anything to do with the PC.

On tonights game the bookies 2nd best price on each selection comes to 101.86%.

IMO the way to improve buisness is to lower commission and increase PC.

Total Bosman, Peter from Bet Angel gave me the golf figures on Twitter. During the US Open he mentioned it was much lower than last year and so I asked him to compare to World Cup year as I thought Euros might be the reason.  It turns out that 2014 US Open was same as last year, so both well up on this year. You have any idea why it's fallen last few months?

PC needs to be more targeted than it currently is.  I still find it utterly absurd that a lifetime figure (which for some of us is 15 years plus) is being used as the basis for the calculation.  BF is a VERY different place to what it was even five years ago.

TP - can't think of anything specific that's occurred recently to make it fall off - no country restrictions I can think of and no charging changes.  But this year does feel a lot worse than in the past.  I guess liquidity breeds liquidity and decline breeds decline which is why it feels it's getting worse quicker, going to be pointless soon.  Question is whether BF can do anything before it's too late.  Suspect we know the answer.

TB, just realised Canada was kicked out a few months back when the merger took place.  I reckon it must be that.

Yeah, that makes sense, forgot about that.  Plus I guess the nature of golf (1 or 2 markets a week) means more and more traders will get caught up in PC and drift away and the downward spiral continues.  Difficult to say how BF can replenish all this liquidity, but they could at least try.

'On tonights game the bookies 2nd best price on each selection comes to 101.86%.'
_____________________________________________


Surely that's your answer .

its all about mobile these days ...tap tap boom ...exchanges dont work like that ...betting has gone mobile and IMHO exchange apps are not quite up to it compared to bookies

Jul 2, 2016 -- 5:35PM, Coachbuster wrote:

'On tonights game the bookies 2nd best price on each selection comes to 101.86%.'_____________________________________________Surely that's your answer .

I think we all know that CB, BF also know this as well, Breon did make a point of this a couple of years back and said that the exchange can't compete against Bookies 104% books on match odds.

The more liquid we all drink, the more p*ssed we get and the Landlord goes to bed at night knowing everyone is happy and can't wait to open it's doors tomorrow for another days trading. If only BF could act in this way????

If liquidity is decreasing because the customers are going on the sportsbook
it's very unlikely Betfair are going to worry too much about it.

They will worry about it, because it will hammer the stock price as I explained below.

FYI, the Aus and USA regulators don't allow bf to trade on their markets. Thus they cannot seed markets in these places.

We need seeders and breeders, not high end commission takers.

As said above, it's the backers that are most noticeably absent....  They return, so do the market makers.

If liquidity is decreasing because the customers are going on the sportsbook
it's very unlikely Betfair are going to worry too much about it.

They will worry about it, because it will hammer the stock price as I explained below.

FYI, the Aus and USA regulators don't allow bf to trade on their markets. Thus they cannot seed markets in these places.


There is NO evidence that Betfair seed markets,and the amount they make x-matching is very small compared to commission and PC.

Why will the stock price get hammered if the new customers they attract go to the more profitable sportsbook?

I don't think they hardly ever advertise the exchange these days,so it should come as no surprise that amounts matched is smaller
than they used to be.

Why will the stock price get hammered if the new customers they attract go to the more profitable sportsbook?

The stock market valued the exchange as being worth 4 times a sportsbook.

The exchange is hugely more profitable than a sportsbook. Although it's unclear as to how much bf's sportsbook is in fact one, or a thin layer over the exchange. Judging by the fact people get limited, I'd say it was intended to be the latter and morphed into the former by people who simply didn't understand the exchange model.

As an exchange only buisness,Betfair's share price was as low as £6.

It was only after they became a sportsbook that the price rose above £10
and the last recorded price was £41.

Sample system showing impact of commission

BETS 9178 over two years UK racing
Odds  2 to 20
Bet size 10 pounds
Profit with zero commission = 4000 pounds
ROI 4.35%
Steady growth pattern

But with 5% commission factored in
Profit = -368 pounds
ROI - 0.4%
Huges swings up and down touching -1200 pounds a few times   

So two things punters face due to commission stripping out profit:
- extreme difficulty making profits
- huge volatility over time with plunges and peaks that would stress out anyone who tracked them - on a graph they look like an earthquake tremor zipping up and down.

This is the environment today where the pros, bots, crossmatching and thousands of eyes studying the markets looking for edges strip out value to low levels over the long haul.

Hardly attractive compared to the early days.  Premium Charge is a side issue for most.  It is normal commission rates that are too high in today's marketplace. Stock market online brokers have driven down commission. BF is increasing it.

Are most punters paying more commission under the new system than the old one then?
Would presume yes, otherwise why change it?
There is zero doubt that a drop in commission rates would keep more punters in the game and increase liquidity but presumably Betfair don't think it would increase their profits so preumsably it is never going to happen.

The last Q&A on the forum was Jan 2015. I think it's only fair for BF to explain whats happening to the ever decreasing levels of liquidity, what's in the pipeline to get it back, empty sub markets and the crazy high levels of PC.

TWK , I have asked betfair a couple of times in as many months to hold another Q&A as like you say , the last one was 18 months or so ago .

I was told that there are no plans to hold one soon .

can't think why

Just re reading the last forum chat these 2 questions regarding the premium charge stand out for the ridiculous answers given. Its probably best they don't do another one or if they do ignore any pc related questions.

Why is the higher rate charged on the basis of lifetime P&L, rather than on hitting annual targets? It means you get stuck on the higher rate regardless of how you do in the future and punishes those that have been with the site a long time. It seems a strange way to treat loyal customers.
Congratulations on your success – Winning £250,000 is no small feat. We use your lifetime net P&L (after all charges) to measure how successful you have been on Betfair. Annual performance goes up and down so it isn’t a good indicator of just how well you have done.

Have you considered changing the premium charge period from a week to a month?
This is something we’ve talked about – the problem with charging premium charge monthly is that the monthly payments will be larger, which means that you will need to keep a higher account balance to cover the charge at the end of each month which we understand many customers are not keen to do.

Yeah, I mentioned the Q+A to them last week and said they would work well if they didn't try and fob us off with their non-answers.  It's as if they had a third-rate politician advise them on how to answer the questions.

they probably shouldn't answer at all.  the rules are clear and there are no questions


hundreds of thousands of people lose gambling on sports and then look for excuses...best to ignore them and leave them alone to post and post and post in some internet forum to let off steam

BUT MOST ARE ABLE TO BANK THERE WINNINGS,BUT NOT ALL ON BETUNFAIR

Are most punters paying more commission under the new system than the old one then?
Would presume yes, otherwise why change it?

If you have a particular edge that works well and gives you a good percentage of wins as I do, then you will pay more in PC than regular commission. I was in that situation for several years, and I only got regular commission higher by betting on a lot of stuff that I knew was only marginally profitable. But then I got bored/fed up with doing that and I am now back on the edge of paying the PC again.

As soon as I pay the PC again, I'll probably leave. It irritates me too much.

GETTING WORSE EVERY SIDE MARKET IS NOW WASTE OF TIME

I have reduced the amount I bet now as Coner says side markets wide spreads zero chance of any edge.
Many USA harness racing tonight had £85 matched in total for the full race.
Really fed up of Betfair taking raiding my account at noon every Wednesday and putting next to nothing of that money
back into promoting the exchange.
I would like to know where that money goes ,as I have their original mail they sent me to say it would go back into the exchange.
Do the impotent Gambling Commision know anything about what's going on on Betunfair?

PREM GAME MAN CITY V SOUTHAMPTON 7 SECS UNDER OVER GOAL MARKETS VERY POOR,NO ONE SEEMS TO WANT TO PLAY IF OVER 5 SECONDS

Ask yourself - when was the last time you recommended a friend to join betair?  For me it was probably over 5 years ago.  It is a hard and frustrating way to make money. The small number who are making money would probably know that their friends would not have a hope these days.  Those making no money would not want to inflict the risk or pain on their friends.  This equals NO word of mouth promotion.  The exciting early days are gone.  Now it is a hard slog against the established sharps and the very high commission.

The average punter does not expect to win (deep down) and is happy with the ease of a sportbook where they can blame the bookie not themselves if they lose. On betfair, sharp minds are supposed to win so if you don't, it rubs salt in the wound.  A mug punter would prefer to not be made to feel even more of a loser by being on BF.  I see no change in the trend to decline - unless maybe they reduce commission radically - but they won't.

If you trade the stock market, liquidity is endless and emotions drive stock to do crazy stuff.  Markets are full of imperfections as no-one can really say what they price of a stock should really be within a wide margin (unlike the extremely accurate sports betting markets).  Far more scope than BF for trading these days.

It was all a bit like the Californian Gold Rush .

true dat ..previous two posts

Without a doubt, there's steady decline across the board in terms of liquidity. Aside from cricket, all sports seem to be suffering, with the side markets in particular becoming desolate wastelands. Even this section of the forum has started to die.

A big anomaly to all this is the big political markets. I can never remember them being big in the early days, but they're now setting all time records in terms of volumes matched. Brexit saw well over £100m matched and the US election is currently at £75m with 2 weeks to go. I wonder if some US money is starting to find its way onto the exchange, or whether there's just a growing appetite for political betting.

Laxman Shiva or whatever he's called has never made a valuable insight in all the time I'v heard him on comms.

^ Wrong thread above for my cricket observation ^........while I'm here I notice % of visitors from UK visiting Betfair is at 26% that seems on the low side, also notice Romania likes Betfair (quick check of population of Romania)  wonder if Brexit will have consequences for that market.

Couple of points:

How do people think the horse racing markets are doing in this respect - reasonable?

Not many recent mentions of the other big factor, coloured Purple?

How much is the other option affecting here?

Something else to add - there's recently been a BF exchange TV advert (sign of change poss?)

zooot , you say Now it is a hard slog against the established sharps and the very high commission

what percentage are you on ?

so aside from cricket...and aside from political markets...and aside from the main markets, in basically every sport  (all of that accounts for hundreds of millions each, peanuts of course for side-markets super-specialist big winners )....you sharps and sharks and whatever else you call yourself  have detected a very rapid, yet still multiyear terminal decline in liquidity


can't wait to see your whining 5 years from now

Racing markets particularly poor today. Most race markets are starting to look like Wolverhampton on a Saturday night. Weak and volatile.

there is certainly a downward  trend ...decent money in politics though ...City boys i reckon

how do you stop exchanges? Build a s*** new site that drains liquidity.

The new site might have put some people off but I reckon the biggest single factor is the decision to actively push all new customers towards the sportsbook. Obviously external factors out of Betfair's control are partly responsible also.

Think the tax has a lot to to do with it.

http://blog.paddypower.com/politics/2016/10/18/paddy-power-pay-out-hillary-clinton/

Enough said!

surely the vast majority of those complaining about paying the pc are bot users

either that or they are lying?

No

lewisham ranger
01 Nov 16 09:26
Joined: 08 Aug 02
| Topic/replies: 1,107 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
surely the vast majority of those complaining about paying the pc are bot users

either that or they are lying?

NO

lairs then

surely it's bots that have destroyed betfair- not the premium charge.

liars even

I only use gruss one click software , no automation .

no fast pics

no advantage

but I pay PC

I have paid six figures in Premium Charge. Have never used a robot, gruss or any form of autoamated software. Just an opinion based punter.

I don't use bots either. Would be fascinating to see the percentage of PC payers who do use bots. You still see bots operating that I'm almost certain aren't profitable, at least for the periods of time that you see them active. I'd imagine there's actually quite a few bot users who aren't on PC. At the end of the day, a bot is only as good as the person who can programme it.

Like the others, I play from home off vids and ruk for racing, only started using gruss when the classic website got canned. Maybe it was a blessing really - as I do regret not getting into the 1 click stuff before.
Have been stung for over 50K in pc2 since jan. How much have that has been spent on bringing new people to the exchange. Zero im sure.

I remember the days of betfair classic

they bring a tear to my face, just thinking of them

Problem is if you are a genuine position player and paying the premium charge then you're effectively acting as a bookmaker (or professional punter) under the betfair remit. But a bookmaker or professional with no rights, no power.

They don't give a monkey's about you. They care about their shareholders and what they can show them on the balance sheet, that's like any business really.

I'm not sure an exchange or bookmaker model exists which caters for the professional punter, and doesn't hit them with massive charges or shuts them down completely.

Sadly, that's a fact of life.

I have less of an issue with the PC than I do with betfair neglecting the exchange in favour of the sportsbook.

For me it's neither the site design, the PC, nor other users' bots that are the problem. It's been the introduction of betfair's own cross-matching bot that's decimated my already feeble returns. Every day I see numerous bets sitting at or near the front of the queue waiting to get matched, only to see hundreds, and sometimes thousands, trade at 'my' price without me getting a penny matched. This makes me ever more reluctant to provide liquidity, as doing so invariably leaves me getting matched on the bad moves and unmatched on the good ones.

I don't trade in the lesser side markets, but without doubt, the even more recent introduction of the cross-market cross-matching bot will have driven substantial amounts of liquidity from other customers away.

So betfair can continue to nick a pound here and a pound there, but there will ultimately be a hefty price to pay. A few years from now the entire betting landscape will be radically different to what we're seeing now, imo.

A few years from now the entire betting landscape will be radically different to what we're seeing now, imo.

But people have been saying this for years and no real evidence of changes. It's like the stock market, most people who make decent money out of it either work or own a company.

That's the capitalist economy we're in, people who own companies can make a fortune and everyone else is scrapping away for peanuts.

the exchange model does not work for the PLC..if the BF exchange still exists in years to come it will only exist as a very small part of the Betfair portal where a few hobbyists and nerds tinker about with a very limited number of markets

Lets see what the government enquiry brings about as the ability to cherry pick your customers and make fortunes out of FOBT's might be coming to an end and the exchange may look a better proposition.

I think the exchange is living on borrowed time, certainly for sports like Horse Racing. Unless Betfair changes direction and starts to actively promote the exchange, which imo they aren't going to do.

must say US politics markets are very impressive right now

must say US politics markets are very impressive right now

must say US politics markets are very impressive right now

in every way

us horse racing markets are DEAD

After 6 months or so away from sports betting all I can say is that it is a very pleasurable experience:
- time to do all sorts of fun stuff
- weekends are weekends - not work
- peace of mind - not the nagging sense that I should be trying some new system or approach that might work long term
- No longer the sense of being a loser (which you tend to feel even if you are profitable because of psychological impact of losing streaks)
- no more disappointments as the market adjusts to your approach and profits dry up yet again

If it aint paying you better than your daytime job per hour try a break - you'll be a happier person for it.

Exactly what I'm thinking after my worst consecutive four months on Betfair.

why are betfair trying to be a sportsbook

The only reason is the stupid pc charge.How much more commision would they get without the stupid tax

they have done the maths ...biz model does not work without premium charge