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NO LIQUIDITY ON BETFAIR

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Replies: 241
By:
pxb
When: 26 Jun 16 03:40
On a related point, how do people find S_Markets? I have been going back and forth with them for weeks trying to get my account working. If I ever do get it working, I intend to move some off my trading there. I can see why low liquidity is a problem for people, but it doesn't affect me that much, which means the lower liquidity at SM won't be an issue for me.
By:
romfordiron
When: 26 Jun 16 11:32
I completely agree that an income tax like structure is the way forward. The management obviously have to weigh up the short term loss in revenue from a reduction in PC with the long term loss from the status quo. Markets are dying. In the past few months I've withdrawn a significant part of my trading bank out and put it into purple and s.markets.

PXB, with regard to s.markets, I think for main market punting, they are now a genuinely serious competitor. The whole thing is pretty much run on bots following the Betfair odds, so if you have a price taken, the market has effectively moved through that price. This makes numerous methods that are profitable here, not yet possible there. However, if you're a punter, who wants to take a price on offer, the money offered at that price is very similar in big markets.

For much of the trading I do, purple is still better than s.markets. You don't have to go behind the big lumps that the bot is offering. Big markets on daq also tend to be independent and have their own mind. They are certainly influenced by, but don't just instantaneously follow market moves from here.

S.markets is also very tough to navigate and incredibly slow when you're wanting to place multiple bets on the same market. It's flashy and modern looking site, but light years behind in performance compared to both here and purple. Of course for simple punting, these things do not matter in the slightest.
By:
JML
When: 26 Jun 16 13:57
Less than an hour before the European match and there are gaps in the **** prices.
ie France 1.55 back---1.57 lay and only £286 on 1.57.

There's a thread on the Horse Racing forum about S_Markets(last post 7 June)

I suspect that any winning account on S_Markets would soon be restricted or closed and I recently read
that a winner on **** was placed on a fixed 5%.

Sporting Options used to follow Betfair prices and went bust owing £3.6 millions to punters.
By:
romfordiron
When: 26 Jun 16 14:20
JML is **** s.markets or purple?
By:
JML
When: 26 Jun 16 14:21
purple
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 26 Jun 16 14:36
I use Smarkets and I think it is excellent, 2% and no PC. Never had a problem with them so far. I believe they have only closed 1 winning account. Check out the traded amounts on football. They seem to be doing very well.
By:
JML
When: 26 Jun 16 14:41
Pointless checking out the traded amount if no one knows how they are calculated.
By:
YOMOMMA
When: 26 Jun 16 14:48
I do, they multiply the stake by the odds.

For example, £100 at odds of 1.5 = 150 traded.
By:
JML
When: 26 Jun 16 16:04
What makes you believe that they have only closed 1 winning account?
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 26 Jun 16 17:40
On most forums I only ever hear bad things about s_martkets either reneging on bets or closing accounts because they've beaten the markket makers. The fact the only people who seem to have access to their API are the market makers and their slow site have put me off using them.
By:
romfordiron
When: 26 Jun 16 17:59
Completely agree that for more sophisticated approaches to using an exchange, s.markets is still not an option. For punters, it's very good for main markets though. Lots of liquidity and no PC makes it a no-brainer compared to here if you want a simple bet.
By:
JML
When: 26 Jun 16 18:50
They face the same problem that many before them have faced---How do they attract the average punter.

Purple have tried everything over the years but are still tiny compared with Betfair,but having a
**** website doesn't help.

Their adverts in the Racing Post must have cost millions.

I have no idea how much it costs to run a website like S_Markets but I'd be amazed if they ever have
a profitable year.
By:
romfordiron
When: 26 Jun 16 20:14
http://www.standard.co.uk/business/qpr-sponsor-smarkets-considering-a-us-stock-market-float-a3159091.html

According to this article, it made £5m profit last year. Considering that most of the money traded will be from the select few (and highly protected) 'market makers', who presumably pay very little commission in order to create liquid markets, I'm not sure where that figure comes from. To be honest, it'd surprise me if it had £5m in revenue from the exchange.

Whatever its books look like, it certainly seems like it has some sizeable backers behind it.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 26 Jun 16 23:41
I'm liking some of the ideas here .

Joel's idea of a tax rebate after a losing week should come into play regardless imo.

The tax banding idea with an allowance must surely be the future for this place to survive .
By:
pxb
When: 27 Jun 16 07:48
S_Markets has traded about 25% of bf on the upcoming Euro matches, which is higher than I expected.

BF's financials are suspect in a number of ways. For example last year it spent 132 million on sales and marketing, more than technology  and operations combined. And there is no breakdown of costs between the exchange and the rest. I know more than most about how much it costs to operate a technology business like an exchange, and SM making 5 mill profit could well be the case.
By:
Templeton Peck
When: 27 Jun 16 10:21
Just taken a look at Wimbledon. Second match on Court No. 1 today is Groth v Nishikori.  Set Betting market has had £0 matched and the overround is 278.8% because only Nishikori 3v0 has any real money on it.  All the other scores are at odds of 2.28 thanks to Betfair's XM bot.  Whilst it's not a huge match, seeing the seeders disappear from such a market is a great example of what's happening.
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 27 Jun 16 22:25
That's the problem with  X Matching it was touted as increasing liquidity but does the exact opposite, doesn't put any extra liquidity into the market by displaying the XM prices and has driven away a whole host of seeders/market makers who used to put up reasonable prices.

In the old days if the market was anywhere overround/overbroke a whole host of players would come in to try and  take it, not all would be accomadated fully so money would be left up for matching or moved around to get matched. These days any overrounds are eaten at source on Betfair's server and never see light of day on the exchange to tempt in punters or arbers etc. So all that's usually on display are crappy xm prices from a bet someone's left up way off true prices cos no one can be bothered to price up a true market when Betfair will swoop to take advantage of their hard work if the opportunity arises.
By:
fixed
When: 28 Jun 16 00:13
slow manual 'hard work' made redundant by the big bad fast machines....

it's called progress and will NEVER be stopped, no matter how many aging overmatched humans want their 19th century slow motion world back
By:
pxb
When: 28 Jun 16 06:26
X Matching was already in place when bf came to Aus, and it's probably a net benefit to me as it makes it more likely my bets will be taken, which is rather the point of XM.
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 28 Jun 16 12:57
It's not about stopping progress , fixed, it's about having a level playing field. I'm sure we'd all love access to the bets as they come in, cherry picking any guaranteed profits and letting the rest thru to be displayed on the exchange. Sadly we  take the risks putting up offers to tempt in money for the XM to pounce, seems the next generation of market makers have wised up and decided it's pointless seeding the exchange for someone else's benefit.
By:
fixed
When: 28 Jun 16 13:46
no. the next generation is crossmatching and the old generation is crying about it

and there will be more bots operating at even higher speed in the future. no doubt about it
By:
Ghetto Joe
When: 28 Jun 16 14:52
Somehow I imagine you don't understand how the X Matcher makes it's money if you think people are competing against Betfair' XM engine.
By:
fixed
When: 29 Jun 16 04:12
there are a lot of things i don't and never will understand
By:
hartani
When: 30 Jun 16 09:41
XM didn't add to liquidity, it's harder to get orders matched since XM came in. Guessing its financially beneficial for BF to have it switched on.

Liquidity on the Euro's is terrible. Significantly down on 2012 by a HUGE amount. Doesn't matter what the score is or whether England are playing, is so far behind 2012. Probably 50% of the last tournament.

Pre off has plunged further than inplay so that probably means that a lot of that money is going to the sportsbook now and never reaches the exchange.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 30 Jun 16 13:28
I can only really comment on Horse Racing, Rugby League and Football markets. All are continuing to decline on the exchange.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 30 Jun 16 13:59
Doesn't matter what the score is or whether England are playing, is so far behind 2012.
_____________

Hartani - yes ,that is without doubt .

I was comparing more with 2014 WC.

I think there was a huge drop off around 2013
By:
takethestand
When: 30 Jun 16 22:34
i';d argue the overall volume still exists on the exchange.   Its just the volume of markets has also increased and money is spread far too thinly
By:
Barton Bank
When: 30 Jun 16 22:50
I this it has declined outright, but I would concur that the vast number of markets don't help with liqudity.
By:
CONER
When: 01 Jul 16 01:13
JESUS CHRIST.
            The only thing that has f--ked this place is --- the TAX.
How the hell can you expect punters to pay 20--40--- 60 percent ,and spend hour after hour seeding markets.
I was very lucky i was about from day one,i used to seed all the time ,now never,every time i want a bet i have to look elsewhere.
I used to promote betfair every time i could NEVER now.
The old betfair crew promised me i would always be looked after,turns out all lies.
No i am not bitter i got a start from betfair,and will always be thankful.
BUT this is not how betfair was supposed to be.
By:
Oceanfinance
When: 01 Jul 16 16:17
also who would take the plunge and go full time on betfair now knowing about the PC
By:
the whizz kids
When: 01 Jul 16 17:16
I used to trade horse racing place markets in 2007/08 and never had a problem getting £1k matched during the day up to half an hour before a race on just one horse, had a look yesterday at a couple of place markets around 40/50 mins before off time and only £1/2k matched on the whole market??? with just peanuts either side waiting to be matched. I give up trading the place market towards the end of 2008 as the recession and the PC killed the market and was then struggling to get just a few hundred matched.
I now trade cricket match odds and innings runs and liquidity is always good on these two markets but there is also another 25 sub markets that are a total waste of time and quite often you will see £0 matched on most of these markets with plenty of empty boxes and this is just half an hour before a match will start. The other day half an hour before England were playing only £2k had been matched in these sub markets.
BF sort the PC out and make it fair for everyone, how can someone make £10k in one year and pay more commission than someone who has made £100k in one year. IT'S A BONKERS BACKWARD SYSTEM.
Tax the winners that are hitting it hard day in day out but don't smash the small guys that are making just £20k a year.
Keep it simple and do it like our UK tax system and if I've paid £100 commission don't change it and tell me I've only paid £50 as implied commission.
I'm now not far off paying PC and I do like to have a punt every now and again but if I start paying PC my punts will have to be placed elsewhere so only BF loses.
By:
romfordiron
When: 01 Jul 16 17:34
I got the dreaded call that I was expecting this week. Going from 20% to 60% PC.

I've been on here full time for around 5-6 years.

I'm not sure what I'm going to do for work yet, but I certainly won't be full time on here for more than a couple of months.

I obviously don't expect any sympathy - I've made over £250k net and enjoyed myself doing so, but it doesn't half seem crazy driving liquidity providers like me away. On some of the biggest markets, I'll comfortably provide 10% of liquidity, so it only takes a handful of people like me to leave and certain former big markets will become wastelands.

If I could foresee the exchange growing, I might have considered committing myself to staying on. However, several markets that used to be very fruitful for me are now almost moribund, so carrying on is not a realistic option.

The delicate exchange ecosystem is being hit at both the top and bottom. PC and a lack of regular punters are forcing liquidity providers away. Regular punters are dwindling due to the dead side markets, sportsbook and almost no advertising. These twin issues have conspired to bring about the death spiral that is currently occurring.


Betfair are playing a game with the current PC levels - convincing themselves that full timers need Betfair more than Betfair needs the full timers. It's a game Betfair will ultimately lose.
By:
pablo-fanque
When: 01 Jul 16 18:00
has anyone spoke to betfair recently regarding all the concerning issues on this thread ?
By:
Barton Bank
When: 01 Jul 16 18:48
The whizz kids, indeed it was possible to get decent money matched 8 or 9 years ago without having to wait until 30 seconds before the off to get more than a pittance on. Hence if you knew your stuff on racing you were able to beat the SP for a grand or two.
Nowadays it is effectively SP bets only if you want to have more than a minimal amount on any horses that is not a short priced favourite or running at a big meeting. And if you want to bet with a bookmaker (if you can get on that is) you will find the prices driven by the shrapnel trade on this site as well.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 01 Jul 16 18:55
There have been races that have jumped off today with less than 100k matched in total in the WIN market. There is no doubt in my mind that the decline is terminal for racing punting on here away from the big meetings.
By:
romfordiron
When: 01 Jul 16 19:53
If Ascot is anything to go by, the big meetings seem in trouble as well now.
By:
romfordiron
When: 01 Jul 16 19:53
Liquidity and volume traded seemed well down on last year
By:
spurs to buy big
When: 02 Jul 16 02:36
Bf do not want u nerds seeding markets that the can seed themselves ...they spend a fortune acquiring mug punters
if u guys win laying said mugs ..u will pay through the nose ..smell the coffee-it is over
By:
pxb
When: 02 Jul 16 07:00
It will be interesting to see what ppbf do if the liquidity and volume declines are as big as some are saying. I only trade Aus sports and cricket, and Aus sports never had much volume with no online inplay here and cricket volume has increased as noted below.

The merger valued bf as double that of PP (adjusted for profit). Assuming the exchange is half bf's business, and the rest is nothing special. That makes the exchange valued at 4 times the sportsbook etc. That valuation will be based on growth prospects. If the exchange volumes decline, the stock price will take a hammering as will executive bonuses.

PPBF may have painted themselves into a corner with the PC.
By:
romfordiron
When: 02 Jul 16 11:45
SpursTBB, it's not as simple as that. Betfair must taken a sizeable chunk of its revenue from PC. This must have already started to decline significantly, and is only going one way. If they end up interfering more and more in the markets, they no longer have an exchange. It's simply another sportsbook, but one for which you have to pay commission on winning bets.
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