General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 79 comments are related to the topic:
Dutching Good Jockeys - Martingale
Dutching Good Jockeys - Martingale
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 79
|
By:
Start bank
200 New bank 505.42 Profit/Loss 305.42 |
|
By:
BF SP odds and SP odds were :-
Intrinsic 17.5 / 11 Slip Sliding Away 20 / 17 WD  |
|
By:
With BF odds on winner being 6.5 points higher than SP odds.....then the stake of 29.14 would give you additional profit of 189.41 points...
Of course commission needs to be adjusted on profit. |
|
By:
if i decide to play with real money then will certainly be using betfair
just using sps so that its in black and white and can be verified the system will generate even more profit using betfair will continue doing martingale for time being but i am thinking its far too risky im not a greedy person. Even 5 points profit a day would be pleasing |
|
By:
MARTINGALE ?????
there is no chance of this working sorry |
|
By:
i am just seeing how far it will go
as i mentioned previously i will prob change to a fixed percentage of the bank or use a slight progressive staking plan |
|
By:
Hi Pug. I'm interested to see how well dutching the jockeys will do for you. How do you go about picking your 2 jockeys for each day though?
GL |
|
By:
hi cata
i just pick the 2 best jockeys riding at the meeting that day. If i am confident that both jockey are riding well at the time then i am happy to go with them. |
|
By:
altho my 2 jocks may be different to someone elses.
Its all about opinions |
|
By:
yeah that's what i was wondering, how you came to decide on what two jockeys to choose. i was also curious would you take any other factors into consideration e.g the draw before choosing on the 2 jockeys you are going to select?
|
|
By:
i dont look at the draw at all
only other possible factor i can possibly look at is the jockeys record at the particular course if they have a poor record then thats a negative but for now i will just blindly back both jocks and just see how successful it may be til end of jthe month. Afterwards i may refine a few things to help generate more profit. Good jockeys are always going to ride winners. For this system we concentrate solely on the jockey and not the horse |
|
By:
if you read through all my posts u will realise there is 'effort' involved
i am reviewing my system and calculating potential profit using an alternative staking plan. So there is a lot of effort involved. I am constantly looking at it and thinkin of ideas. Thanks |
|
By:
PM1 -
As it is a relatively "simple" method you are using to make selections, it is likely the VALUE in odds will generally be diminished when the popular "good" jockeys chosen for day get a winner. kenilworth indicated this earlier on thread. There are so many FACTORS taken into account when using a complex "system" to rate a race, and as there are so many "good" JOCKEYS my "system" does not allocate points for a named jockey, but it does take account of claims in weight made. If the "system" ends up rating 2 or more horses to have same points in ratings, then the JOCKEY FACTOR would be relevant to arrive at a top rated horse. The horse HUGHES won on , INTRINSIC I believe it was called, had some strong FACTORS in its favour for that particular race on the GOING and for distance and type of race at this time in season. There were numerous "good" JOCKEYS in the race and it is likely most of them would have won on that horse had they been given chance to ride it. The HORSE, and FACTORS other than the JOCKEY are far more relevant to finding VALUE in odds, and if you just go by "good" JOCKEYS at a course for selections, then the VALUE probably is likely to be diminished due to punters who back the JOCKEY. As you are also DUTCHING 2 selections, you are further diminishing the VALUE by spreading staking over 2 horses. INTRINSIC had better chance of winning IMO, due key factors being more in that horse's favour than the other horse selected. If you can filter it down to 1 horse and back that one to WIN/PLACE or EW, then this has a better chance of working than the method chosen on thread. It is an interesting thread though.....and from your posts you are well aware that your method is not suitable for MARTINGALE progression in staking, as very likely bank wipe out will happen. So toning down your staking and filtering it down to 1 horse selection might well be very successful for you. GL with thread. |
|
By:
Last thought for morning.......Why not allow the market to decide which 1 of 2 you back?
So far the lowest SP odds one has won for you between the 2 horses chosen for race.......this FILTER is a fairly reasonable way to narrow it down to 1 horse for a race. G M the noooooooooooooooooooooo |
|
By:
appreciate that dfc thanks
we were nearly in trouble at ascot as we wese putting on a nearly a quarter of the bank and that just doesnt appeal. I am thinkin of a progressive staking plan. Increase stake by a point if we hit a loser i will try this 2mro. Would be farm more comfortable doin this. Again i wil say that its the jockey we are interested in, not the horse. Cream always rises to the top |
|
By:
As one that follows racing extensively and will take on three meetings a day and find bets, here are some aspects to keep in mind:
- There are riders who win but, at the end of the day, there are some horses they cannot get improvement out of. So despite strong records at a track or in form, they still have to work for the wins. - Some jockey's are retained, some are paid per ride, etc. They need to work. So come a Monday after a long weekend of rides, they will fill their day with rides on horses that will pay the bills. - Jockey's will be called by trainers they have good records with to take a horse out that perhaps the trainer has lined up two or three races in three weeks, even over different distances, and wants the jockey to take the horse out and gauge the performance. There is no deceit in this. Just part of an ongoing strategy by a trainer. Nothing mentioned in this post appear in the stats. Where I find success is when a jockey is in form at various tracks and has atleast been in the mix on recent races at a track, then this is a plus. There are no click and win systems on betfair. |
|
By:
will be following paul hanagan and graham lee at doncaster
|
|
By:
also following tom eaves and kieron fallon at muss
|
|
By:
2.10 mus
! and 14 3 points |
|
By:
lost
|
|
By:
2.30 mus
1 and 2 6 points |
|
By:
lost
|
|
By:
3.05 mus
4 and 6 12 points |
|
By:
Something to consider......
If doing 2 meetings....should each meeting not stand on own staking plan? There is no link between performance of JOCKEYS at 2 different meetings. |
|
By:
lost
|
|
By:
315 don
3 and 6 24 points |
|
By:
dfc for the purpose of the system i will stick to the 1 staking plan
the idea being that at least one of the four jocks will have a winner |
|
By:
lost
|
|
By:
3.40 mus
2 and 3 48 points |
|
By:
lost
now entering dodgy territory |
|
By:
4.15 mus
7 and 8 98 points |
|
By:
lost
|
|
By:
4.50 mus
3 and 7 196 points |
|
By:
I don't think any of these jockeys are dutch
|
|
By:
not today they arent
 |
|
By:
lost
|
|
By:
There are no click and win systems on betfair.
That is totally untrue. |
|
By:
5.20 mus
1 and 4 392 points |
|
By:
I have Please Let Me Go EW before the two non-runners. Graham Lee's best ride on the day. GL
|
|
By:
unlucky there
looked like lee was getting close up until a furlong out |