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PugMunter1
07 May 14 15:42
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Date Joined: 20 Mar 14
| Topic/replies: 8,724 | Blogger: PugMunter1's blog
Hi all

looking to test out a system in backing away teams winning at ht and home teams winning at ft. Is there any sites i can access whick will give me the number of matches this result has occured in that particular league?

Thanks?
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Report kenilworth • May 7, 2014 8:55 PM BST
Try laying half time odds on shots, better than
the double results you are searching for. Anything
at 2/5 to win the match will give you an half time
odds on bet. Take it from there.
Report PugMunter1 • May 7, 2014 9:14 PM BST
thats an interesting idea ken although i am looking to back ht/ft for every match in a specific league. Average odds around 20/1. Looking to try doubles from 10. Aiming for the big money
Report kenilworth • May 7, 2014 9:36 PM BST
Good luck in your quest. Re my idea, there are two points
attract me, (a) the opponents are usually at their best in
the first half and capable of scoring (b)The odds on chance
won't be busting a gut as it gets near half time.
For the record, two to qualifiers this evening were ManC and Celtic.
Report PugMunter1 • May 7, 2014 10:03 PM BST
if i were to try this i would prefer to use a progressive staking system as can see quite a few losing lays are likely to occur one after another

its an interesting idea. I am looking at various systems at the moment and looking for the most profitable of course.

So a 2/5 shot would be roughly 10/11 at ht would you expect?
Report kenilworth • May 7, 2014 11:51 PM BST
The ratio is 40%. That means the favourite about 1.4
and the halftime 2.00. The shorter the win market,
1.40 or less, any bigger and the half time goes above
2.00. Still backable (or layable) but I think staying
odds on at half time is the value. Hard to watch though!!
Report SHAPESHIFTER • May 8, 2014 9:53 AM BST
I use this market extensively.

First, stats, etc, are too general and, as usual mean 'what is the return if I bet on every team that is odds on to win?' etc.  Sunderland's recent run would be an example of two or three matches that would contribute.

Throwing systems aside, my success came from a simple question:

Do I think a team can hold a superior team for 45 minutes?

So through the week, I would look at upcoming matches and look at how the teams would do during the first half.

After a few weeks of the season, the results help zero in on this.  A team may not be winning but they are strong defensively until broken later or the superior team takes a while to get going and needs a half time regroup to find the winner.

An example was Man U earlier this year who would go nil nil into the dressing room then Van Persie would score in the first few minutes of the second half.

Where I personally found the value was backing draw/Result rather than laying a team.
Report U.A. • May 8, 2014 10:39 AM BST
Soccerstats has got this info for some of the more major leagues. Bottom right corner in the League Stats there is a HT/FT home table.
Report Andriy • May 8, 2014 12:13 PM BST
Football-data.co.uk will give you this info in Excel form so you can adapt it yourself.
Report kenilworth • May 8, 2014 4:22 PM BST
Where I personally found the value was backing draw/Result rather than laying a team.

mmmmmm..I find the value in laying the favourite but
only when it is odds on. There is certainly no value
in backing it, the favourite that is.
Report SHAPESHIFTER • May 8, 2014 7:51 PM BST
Rare to find value odds on in HT FT to back.

Draw/Result pays 3/1 or better.  Will often put a flutter on a higher correct score, as well, to trade out if there is a goal in the first half.
Report kenilworth • May 8, 2014 8:40 PM BST
Laying long odds (2/5 or shorter) in the half time
market pays. it's a market I play in.
Report green army • May 8, 2014 9:59 PM BST
"mmmmmm..I find the value in laying the favourite but
only when it is odds on. There is certainly no value
in backing it, the favourite that is."

ooh you lying hound ken, you backed shef utd v Hartlepool at 2/5, and on the footy thread you backed unders at brighton tonite at long odds on, (against the top scorers in the championship) DOH!
Report PugMunter1 • May 9, 2014 6:15 PM BST
many thanks ua and andriy

will give them both a go

as i mentioned earlier i am going to use this bet for every match in a particular league next season.

I am after the big money here

may use a small progressive staking which could generate huge profits when i get the first winner
Report kenilworth • May 10, 2014 9:11 AM BST
You will need great patience.GL.
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