Oct 30, 2013 -- 6:16PM, LordBobbin wrote:

Dave, I haven't read any of BJT's other posts on Frankel (from your tone, I'm guessing he's made some comments about him in the past), but I didn't see any hatred of Frankel coming out of his posts on this particular thread. All seemed pretty well reasoned to me.Of course plenty of horses are given less than optimum trips. Problem is, how do you know why the horse is drifting?  A lot of the time, you just can't tell whether there's a valid reason or not.   It's a good idea to be betting on horses that both have factors in their favour, and that seem to be going off at a bigger price than you expected. If they start to drift, then, as DFC said earlier, you shouldn't be put off. It's hard enough coming up with a pick given everything we can find out about a horse, without worrying about all of the factors that remain completely hidden.There are certain situations where the market is often a decent guide. If a horse is a first-time starter or is coming off a lay-off, a surprising move in the price can tell you a great deal. A rapidly shortening price isn't necessarily a reason to be backing blindly in that sort of race, but it might be a reason to hold off if your pick seems unfancied after several months off the track. (I do a lot of US Racing, and there I tend not to back horses who have been off the track for more than 5-6 weeks, unless I have a very good reason for thinking they can overcome that handicap.)

There is no secret I think that horse is very overrated and I have been very vocal in giving my opinions.  Problem here, is the horse is the highest profile horse in the world and the tactics used for it are very questionable in quite a few of his races.  What better example of problems in racing can you make when you have the option of showing rorted races involving the most publicised horse in the world?

To balance it out though, I also showed Obrien using a pacemaker for So You Think, an Australasian horse, and a very big rort involving another Australian horse and the most high profile trainer in the country and her son, the face of the Waterhouse bookmaking family carried out on national television, live, at a fully televised race meet, in the mounting yard before the race, and after the race when  the owner was proven right. We knew in that vision the horse couldn't win, but by then everybodies money was already down.

The thread is about UK horses, so I used UK examples.  But this industry is governed by money everywhere in the world, and where there is money, there is obviously foul play. 

My father for example, had the driver of his horse tell him on the way to putting his standard bet on his horse for a driver bonus should it win, not to waste his time, as it wasn't going to be his day today.  Needless to say he drove for himself after that.  One of the biggest names in Victorian harness racing.

I think UK is probably worse than anywhere to be honest, as the industry there is governed by 3 big stables, all the breeding operators that control the racing, and basically the races.  The prizemoney dictates that you can't be involved unless you are a big player, so they have the run of it. 
Australia is slightly better, because our prizemoney is dictated by the 2yos, which allows anybody to be involved in owning a horse.  There is a lot more fun owners than purely business owners.  It just makes sense that monopolies with more control get up to more.


In saying all that though, I certainly wouldn't say that all racing is dodgy, and all drifters have no chance.  But to blindly disregard market moves, is negligent to your bank balance.  Use the information, and find out the owners, the trainers, and history on their horses.
Some stables are gambling stables.  They hire people to gamble for them.  Nothing beats setting your horse up for a big plunge, and it happens very often.  Over here especially, with the accepted method of targetting a race in the future, and using the races preceding basically as fitness and competition to set up for that race.  A lot of cases is as bad as running them dead in my opinion, as if the horse isn't 100% for that race, I don't see why it should be in it.

Oct 31, 2013 -- 10:21AM, dave1357 wrote:

LordBobbin • October 30, 2013 5:16 PM GMTDave, I haven't read any of BJT's other posts on Frankel (from your tone, I'm guessing he's made some comments about him in the past), but I didn't see any hatred of Frankel coming out of his posts on this particular thread. All seemed pretty well reasoned to meIn a thread about pre-race drifts, BJT's first contribution to the thread is a Frankel race.  Re his obsession google "BJT frankel site:http://community.betfair.com" - at the end it says "n order to show you the most relevant results, we have omitted some entries very similar to the 95 already displayed." OP was obviously seeking info, so its important the he knows anything that emanates from BJT is tainted.

Say what?  Have you read the thread?

My first contribution?

Hmmmm

BJT • October 29, 2013 9:22 AM GMT
Oct 28, 2013 -- 11:06PM, HARRY22 wrote:

Unless you are in the know stay clear sheppy...spend your cash on a holiday and enjoy the sun    You will lose your entire bank trying to guess which horse will shorten or drift.

lol.  A horse that has gone from 8 to 9 to 11 is a pretty good place to start guessing.....LaughLaugh

Not sure what you are talking about really.....

Maybe my second contribution?
BJT • October 30, 2013 1:43 AM GMT
Realistically, horses drift for a number of reasons the same way that they get backed in, and to blindly ignore such events is negligent.  Obviously in some cases these are intertwined.

The other night there was a pacer that was to go around with a price opening 21 dollars.  It went off at an SP of 2.80.
Now you can imagine that every other horse in the race drifted plenty, and there was a massive plunge on this horse.  If this was in the formbook, it simply wouldn't have opened up at 21.00 now would it.
This was a first starter, so more exaggerated, but did have trials under his belt for the form students.

While this is a massive example of why horses drift through no fault of their own, it does show that simple form systems really don't provide enough information.

It doesn't show in the formbook the temperament of the horse.  The coat of the horse on race day.  It doesn't show a horses training schedule, feed pattern, training times. 
So when a horse that is usually well mannered and relaxed in the mounting yard, shows up agitated, coat a little wooly, sweating up, then you can throw the formbook out the window because this is the first time it has been presented in such a state, and the results of the horse previous really don't add up to knowing anything about what it will do. 
You know the ability of the horse, but using up excess energy, lowers race performance.  Hence, a drift in the odds.

In the UK, it is legal to run your horse dead so really that decision may affect the odds, considering they are doing it for a reason.


There are many many reasons why a horse will drift in the market.  Very few of these reasons you will find in the formbook no matter how detailed it is unless it is a private formbook of a well informed race goer.

There are also different levels of drift.  There is the no hoper drift where it is already known the horse won't be allowed to win.  There is the mild sweat up drift, where the horse has been judged to present poorly at which point people become layers.  There is the "I have a lot of money to fool the traders and take their money" drift.

With each kind of drift, the line moves on what is value.  The no hoper drift, could go out to 1000/1 and still be a good lay.  The slightly agitated horse that was pushed from 10-15 may have a line closer to 12.50 (for example) but was pushed too far by the sheep.  The ones that got on early well done, the ones that followed later, may have been better backing.


Point being, there is no hard and fast rule about horses that drift or shorten.  There can be many reasons.  Just because it is drifting doesn't mean it can't win, but it probably does mean that its chances are less than what the formbook suggests.
There are 2 reasons why most of the drift happens on the day.
1.  Because there is more money to soak up from running a good horse with well hidden talents.
2.  Because the presentation of the horses on the day, shows where they are at in their campaign and if they are aimed at this race, need the run or really just unhappy to be there.

Nope.  Not in there either.  Hmmmm.  Oh there was a horse in there.  The Court Jester.  Hatred of UK?  Hatred of Frankel?  No, an Aussie pacer in a country Victorian pacing race.


No it was in a post combined with an Aussie horse.
The biggest reason a horse will drift and the reason a horse will drift so much, has a lot to do with how it is expected to run.
I didn't use Frankel as an example because of me.  I used it because of the UKs need to promote him as the best horse to ever race.  And what better way to show an example of the lack of legitimacy in UK racing, and horses running dead, than in a race promoted by Britain to the world to show off their wonder horse who can never be rivalled.
If they are prepared to rort a race like that, then one can only imagine the kind of siht that people get away with when very few are watching.
The fact that nobody in the UK even question anything about their races, when the obvious is staring them in the face, shows not only how patriotism allows fraud, but exactly how easy it is for them to get away with it.

I could show plenty of examples of it.  But why not head straight to the top of the pile and show a race they wouldn't dare rort due to the high profile of it.  Yet they did, they do, and they will continue to do so, because of gullible ignorant people like dave who rather than looking at the facts, sees a non Englishman showing his favourite horse in a less than favourable light and comes out on the attack.....
You are attacking the wrong person.  You should be going after the people that make your racing the rort that it is.  But no, not a sheep like dave.  Would rather watch some of the richest people in the world, rig races, take money out of the pocket of the punters, and then support them in their endeavour to control their whole industry.

Dave.  My last words to you.  You are a patriotic gullible fool.

Good day to you.

Oct 31, 2013 -- 12:16PM, dave1357 wrote:

ok lets look at the facts.  I have a database of betfair price info with 180k horses.  If I take a sample of horses with a betfair SP of less than 5 and with a SP of more than 1.1 times the average price traded - in other words, drifters - I have 3211 horses.  The SP return betting these horses is 3237.  It is not possible for these horses to win as expected, if the drifting means that they can't win.

Congratulations.  But what exactly is your point?  Are you suggesting that every one of them was running to win the race? 

Nowhere did anybody ever say that if a horse drifts it can't win.  Have you even read the thread?

And why did you cherry pick those stats?  I have nowhere near the stats that you do, but mine show up as 101% for your conditions although I don't use SP, I have price at race jump time.

Mine show:
WAP >5
(PriceAtJump - 1) / (WAP - 1) > 1.1

101%

>1.15

88%

>1.2

81%

>1.25

77%

>1.3

75%


The sample size is significantly reduced at that point.

So while you claim "drifters", I stand by my comment that the more a horse drifts, the more the money makes sense.

And why are we using WAP 5? 

Using all prices, with the same drift %.
WAP > 0
Drift%>1.1

102%

>1.15

89%

>1.2

87%

>1.25

88%

>1.3

88%


The more the drift, the lower the return %.  Yeah?

Either way, if you actually care to read the thread, you would read the explanation of different drift.

What do your stats say about the percentage of pacemakers that win a race?

When Jan Vermeer went around at 28/1, and was sent out to try and kill the horse, how did it run?  What were its true odds knowing the tactics dictated it had more chance of dying of a heart attack than winning the race.  Lost by 60 lengths right?  Tailed off with about 4 furlongs to go after going flat out for the first half of the race, ridden out with 8 furlongs to go?

Oct 31, 2013 -- 12:11PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:

1.There is no secret I think that horse is very overrated and I have been very vocal in giving my opinions.  Problem here, is the horse is the highest profile horse in the world and the tactics used for it are very questionable in quite a few of his races.  What better example of problems in racing can you make when you have the option of showing rorted races involving the most publicised horse in the world?To balance it out though, I also showed Obrien using a pacemaker for So You Think, an Australasian horse, and a very big rort involving another Australian horse and the most high profile trainer in the country and her son, the face of the Waterhouse bookmaking family carried out on national television, live, at a fully televised race meet, in the mounting yard before the race, and after the race when  the owner was proven right. We knew in that vision the horse couldn't win, but by then everybodies money was already down.                                                         2.The thread is about UK horses, so I used UK examples.  But this industry is governed by money everywhere in the world, and where there is money, there is obviously foul play.                        3.My father for example, had the driver of his horse tell him on the way to putting his standard bet on his horse for a driver bonus should it win, not to waste his time, as it wasn't going to be his day today.  Needless to say he drove for himself after that.  One of the biggest names in Victorian harness racing.       4.I think UK is probably worse than anywhere to be honest, as the industry there is governed by 3 big stables, all the breeding operators that control the racing, and basically the races.  The prizemoney dictates that you can't be involved unless you are a big player, so they have the run of it. Australia is slightly better, because our prizemoney is dictated by the 2yos, which allows anybody to be involved in owning a horse.  There is a lot more fun owners than purely business owners.  It just makes sense that monopolies with more control get up to more.In saying all that though, I certainly wouldn't say that all racing is dodgy, and all drifters have no chance. 5.But to blindly disregard market moves, is negligent to your bank balance.  Use the information, and find out the owners, the trainers, and history on their horses.Some stables are gambling stables.  They hire people to gamble for them.  Nothing beats setting your horse up for a big plunge, and it happens very often.6.  Over here especially, with the accepted method of targetting a race in the future, and using the races preceding basically as fitness and competition to set up for that race.7.  A lot of cases is as bad as running them dead in my opinion, as if the horse isn't 100% for that race, I don't see why it should be in it.================================================================================1.There is no secret I think that horse is very overrated and I have been very vocal in giving my opinions.Most top horses are hyped up....so what is so different re hype with F.Generally.....I ignore "hype".....the only RATINGS I am interested in are my own!2.But this industry is governed by money everywhere in the world, and where there is money, there is obviously foul play"Obviously" is definitely over hyping your statement.The RACING INDUSTRY is a business ........and they have many rules to comply with......The British industry appears far cleaner than races run in other parts of world....not naming countries, but when jockeys continually keep looking down at horse, and their horse fades rapidly, this happening in almost every race ,then I really you should not be so critical of British racing. 3. had the driver of his horse tell him on the way to putting his standard bet on his horse for a driver bonus should it win, not to waste his timeHow many times did the driver get it wrong re horse not winning? You won't know.......OK you don't want anyone "bad-mouthing" your business.....and fair enough it is a sacking offence.....but what the feck does this heresay have to do with British racing?4.I think UK is probably worse than anywhere to be honest, as the industry there is governed by 3 big stables,[/b]"To be honest" ....you are just being blinkered re your opinion. No doubt at all in my opinion that a certain country is far more dubious in how they run their races.Racing conditions give rise to far greater range of GOINGS in UK and the TYPES of races run here are far more "interesting" than most overseas racing.......obviously excluding class races overseas.In terms of big money races in Britain......YUP probably the big 3 do very well .......but if you check the STATS on trainers and how well they so when they run horses, then there are far more than 3 trainers doing well in terms of horses winning and placing.Remember we have AW racing and NH racing, as well as TURF, and there are specialist trainers in each racing category........so racing here is fairly competitive compared to the boring racing from overseas. 5.But to blindly disregard market moves, is negligent to your bank balance.  Use the information, and find out the owners, the trainers, and history on their horses.Some stables are gambling stables.There is enough information on the race card and on STATS sites to enable a race to be rated.....no real benefit in going by all the hype out there. You might believe MARKET MOVES are important......but I believe my RATINGS are more informative than market moves. More likely you will be losing your bank if you be on market moves, as you really need a depth of knowledge to "interpret" such moves, and the average punter does not have that and is unlikely to have the ability to get to the level of knowledge required to "interpret" such moves.6.  Over here especially, with the accepted method of targetting a race in the future, and using the races preceding basically as fitness and competition to set up for that race.Trainers in UK will do this also.....they have to. Don't really understand what point you are making!7. A lot of cases is as bad as running them dead in my opinion, as if the horse isn't 100% for that race, I don't see why it should be in it.You have just said that FITNESS is important .....Trainers need to run horses to build up fitness and race experience, and to get used to certain types of courses.A trainer may enter a horse on basis the GOING will be GOOD TO FIRM.......then the rain teems down and goes HEAVY........should the trainer withdraw horse? If they did you would be down to 2/3 runners in a race.............A young horse MIGHT take to conditions......may hate them.....the trainer MIGHT have an idea they will hate going change....but until they run them ...how do they FIND OUT??????Weather in UK is highly variable......GOING CHANGES are frequent......and can be from race to race.I suspect in AUSTRALIA you going changes are few and far between.....so trainers are not faced with the "problem" of sudden weather changes as often as they do here.It is the variety of GOING that makes the racing "interesting" IMO here.....and variety of types of racing. Do you have NH racing in AUSTRALIA?Al in all ....the trainers in Britain do very well to cope with such variable weather....and I'm glad they do their best to rain a horse to win a race or run well.Your post above does seem to be very biased re British racing......perhaps you really don't understand how frequent GOING or WEATHER CHANGES occur in UK ????

1.  Your ratings are irrelevant.  Your ratings don't affect public opinion and viewing numbers.
2.  ? 
3.  His brother was driving in the same race, no need to guess which horse won.  Our horse was pulled at the start and pulled to the line.  It is the racing industry.  Happens everywhere you go.  Completely relevant to why horses drift.
4. Racing is fairly competitive?  How many horses have you had with ridiculous winning records because they pick and choose G1s to race and G1s to dodge?
Check the stats on trainers?  Winning mickey mouse races?  How well are they doing if the horses they are beating are making more for their connections than the winner of the race?
5.  Yes, but there are very valid reasons to question why it is happening.  Why the market opinion is so rapidly changing.  Has nothing to do with the information readily available, or the price would have simply started long rather than drifting to get there.
6. You don't understand that if you are running your horse not completely fit for racing, you can't possibly be adhering to the rule that by being in the race, you must give your horse every possible chance of obtaining the best possible result for your horse?
7. Ground conditions has nothing to do with running a horse that isn't fit to race and be competitive.  Not sure what you are suggesting.
No, Melbourne, described as "4 seasons in 1 day" wouldn't ever have dodgy weather....


TBH, you really haven't argued your points well at all.  Was a long winded reply, and not sure why you wasted so much time when this is all you could come up with.

Oct 31, 2013 -- 1:09PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:

Change in GOING is probably the main factor in BRITAIN why horses can drift................not corruption!

Not at every course on a day etc etc etc.....who is putting words in whos' mouth!



Horses drift in EVERY race of every day.  You made the statement that the going is the main reason for a horse to drift.  Did you not?

Oct 31, 2013 -- 2:58PM, DFCIRONMAN wrote:

Your waffle is just that....To someone like sheppy...at least my opinion is something they can use practically, as with GOING CHANGES pre-race favorites are likely to drift......sheppy can't be in the ring or at the course etc etc for your opinions to be considered...but he can see RAIN teeming down...as it often does in BRITAIN......The GOING CHANGES factor is a more sound factor for horses drifting than your subjective stuff! Anyway ....GL with bets.

So knowing it will be raining, or is raining for that matter won't already have set the market?  So your advice, is when unexpected rain happens the favourite will drift, because no favourite can handle conditions any worse than what they are right now?

Ok.  Sound advice.  Much better than to simply take into consideration to tread carefully when strange moves happen that you have no idea about......

Well done and congratulations to you.  No doubt you have an ebook coming out soon filled with such wisdom.