NO way to beat the tax,no matter what you come up with,unless you lose overall with betfair.
NOW its great to have peace of mind and lay off on here.
But at the end of the day when you look at the p-l it just gives you the HUMP.
Think of all the on course bookies that lay off.They all lose. FACT.

optimistic *

cdog - the old site ,and under the Football subheading .

They have listed the games in chrono' order rather than in order of importance i note

can't imagine too many folk rushing to get bets on the Denmark game though

I just had a quick flick through all the different sub markets in the Ukraine v England match and not all that much has been matched 1 1/2 hours before kick off and it's World Cup qualifier.

Betfair pricing structure is all wrong. I turned down bets yesterday because I didn't want to win to try and stay clear of the PC.

"I just had a quick flick through all the different sub markets in the Ukraine v England match and not all that much has been matched 1 1/2 hours before kick off and it's World Cup qualifier."

Few better examples of 'mugs' leaving and only sharks left behind. Surely mugs bet as much on England v Ukraine  on ITV as they do on an EPL match? Sharks tend to rely on facts/stats/etc to take a position/trade and much more difficult with international football.

I'm on my worst ever run which started the day Murray won Wimbledon, so 9-10 weeks ago 

I've took time off, some for a holiday and some just faffing around, so it actually only equates to 6-7 weeks, but still I've had holidays and faffing around periods before and it's not been noticeable.  I feel I've been particularly unlucky (but then again maybe I haven't) and also made some uncharacteristic mistakes, some lazy and some because of pressure from dealing with the perceived bad breaks.  The most laughable was when I was watching TV once when I'd live paused the tv and hadn't realised I was about 5 minutes behind and the event had gone in play.  Lots of my betting and profit is not on here and that is the way it's always been for me, except for a period of around a year in 2007 when it was almost exclusively on here.  Having a big individual loss is easier to take, my biggest was in 2004 when I stupidly chose to chase a loss where I'd bet the wrong thing by mistake and went on tilt.  I was over it the next day.  It's when you have bad runs that and can't find good bets you question yourself.  It isn't the first time I've had a bad run and questioned things and myself.  I had one in February to April 2006
and one in 2011 when PC3 came into force, which really affected my motivation for a couple of months.  It's not just Betfair that gets more difficult, it's everywhere.  It just doesn't happen simultaneously and is dependent on what sport/events you bet on and in bigger sports what markets you bet on.  I had a big win last year off one bookmaker.  They made a mistake

Something tells me this time it is different too.  I noticed the abysmal turnover on the Ukraine v England game.  Markets where I thought I might find value I didn't.  It wasn't that the prices being offered were poor, the opposite was true, so I don't buy this people aren't betting because the prices are carp.  I think it's more that people aren't betting because the liquidity is poor rather than the value and it's an ever decreasing circle, because it's very risky to offer good liquidity in a market where there isn't much interest, as if you end up making a mistake the lot will get matched, whereas if you don't the chances are only a little will get matched, so you offer liquidity in a fashion whereby if you make a mistake it can be covered by the bets matched when you don't make a mistake.  One falls, the other falls and so on.  When there is less uniformed and casual money as a proportion the inevitable end result is falling liquidity.  Out of everything, the England/Ukraine market made me feel more pessimistic than anything else.  This was England in a HUGELY important WC QF match and interest was almost non existent.  OK, maybe in the eyes of the public faith in the England team is at an all time low, but still.

CLYDEBANK29
12 Sep 13 13:05
Joined:
10 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 3,750 | Blogger: CLYDEBANK29's blog
The most laughable was when I was watching TV once when I'd live paused the tv and hadn't realised I was about 5 minutes behind and the event had gone in play.


A few years ago a similar thing happened to me during an IPL match. I had rewound the tv to look at a wicket being taken and then walked out the room.

Towards the end of the game it was getting very close and I was surprised at the prices when I checked them so started betting accordingly, thinking that I was getting massive value.

At times the odds were moving the opposite direction to what I was watching on screen. Thinking that a bot had gone on "tilt" I carried on trading in and out and taking profits until out of the corner of my eye I saw the green circle of the Sky+ box spinning (indicating that the tv was behind real-time). I greened out immediately to show a profit of £400 and when I checked, I had been watching the TV with a 4 minute delay!

I was a lucky boy that day although there has been times since (when going through a bad patch) that I have though about rewinding the TV by four minutes and trying it again!!

Seriously though Clydebank, its tough when you go through those periods and you have done the right thing by taking time off and coming back to the market fresh. Also, I normally try to go back to basics and try to take volatility out of my returns until my confidence returns and then build back up again.

BETFAIR Are killing the great exchange they had,its just a joke to what it was.
IS IT PURE GREED,STUPIDITY,OR A MORE SINISTER AGENDA.

CORRECT

Same here just checking, it's bots arbing the exchange and the pro books, they are rife.

Keep a close eye on what the odds are with Pinnacle, IBCbet/12bet (they have the same odds), so you don't get arbed. Don't put too much money up in one go so if the odds move against you, you can red out without that much damage. Sometimes the odds can move sharply and you end up getting eaten, hate it when that happens.

After all the cobblers about the rugby and pc tax ,it has just got more pitiful,what the hell is betunfair playing at.

A very good post Latolomne.  The rugby promotion only addressed point 1.  That on it's own won't work, fundamentally because of points 3, 5 and 6.  Point 4 I feel is a cherry on the top once you get the fundamentals right, whereas point 2 I feel is something without a good solution and is an inherent weakness in the exchange model.

I would also like to add point 7, and that is the level of shrewdness and the relative level of shrewdness. 

The market grew very quickly in the early days because you didn't have to be that clever to make money or extremely knowledgeable to offer prices, because there weren't anywhere near as many pros.  As the level of shrewdness increases, liquidity/offers decrease as you become more respectful of the opposition.  It's an inherent weakness in the exchange system and something that can't be tackled. 

Much more important is the relative level of shrewdness.  As the level of shrewdness went up over the years, the relative level of shrewdness didn't go up by anywhere near the same amount, as the exchange was growing, new blood was entering, there was a feel good factor that everyone was working together etc etc.  Now what is happening is that as the exchange is contracting, the relative level of shrewdness is increasing by more than the level of shrewdness.  It's part of the reason why competitors can't get off the ground.

Death spiral in itself probably doesn't do it justice, it's an accelerating death spiral.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7RIgs3eygo