In that case only the big markets survive, and the whole exchange becomes less attractive.

I'm not on the 'doom and gloom' side entirely - I still see plenty markets trading nicely with good liquidity (not all of course, but plenty still do).

Perhaps there has been a shift towards the central markets and away from smaller ones, but there are still enough opportunities. I do think there may have been a change in timings though - e.g. more money now arriving later in horse race markets, less early, but about the same overall as previous.

Yep, that's what I'm seeing, stu.  Money arriving later and concentrated into fewer markets.  Overall liquidity might be on the up, but it's not across the board.  I think that's where Betfair and us get wires crossed.  They say liquidity is going up but that's only because of what's happening in the 'central' markets.  Just look at the Set Betting in Andy Murray's match today: £259 matched.  That's not just a small drop but a real plummet from previous years.

That's betfair's official line.  They're using the sportsbook to bring in customers who would find the exchange too difficult.  Once they have them, they can slowly introduce the concept of the exchange to them.

Even if this were the case, there's no need to hide the exchange.  Why not have it half and half? 

The exchange is going to lose customers, the new sportsbook customers won't want to join the exchange, and Betfair get to fleece these idiots.  They assume the 'sharks' will continue to use the exchange as there's no identical alternative.  They continue to earn commission and 20%-60% PC from these people and don't need to spend anything on advertising the exchange as they assume sharks/potential sharks will know about it through means other than lowest common denomination tv/radio ads.  Easy money.

To be fair, CVC wanted to run the exchange as a sharks-only/no advertising type of business.

The question is to what extent do sharks need plankton to survive?  Will the 40%-60% create more position takers (this is what's happened to me) who can move to other sites more easily than those who rely on bots/trading/etc?

I've only bet on the sportsbook a handful of times, if I place a bet and lose my maximum bet stays the same, if I place a bet and win my max bet gets cut. Pathetic excuse for a bookmaker I've only had 2k off them so far, even Stan James is better.

But all they'd need to do to do THAT is have a mode of operation that's a simplified exchange. You could wrap up the exchange to be exactly like the sportsbook, and show just bets (no lays) etc.

They have tried that. There is, or used to be, an option to show only the back bets. Part of the problem of that, I think, was that just the front price was shown, and often this would be for a fairly paltry amount (less than £10, say).

For years, BF management have been trying to come up with ways of making the whole idea of exchange betting more user-friendly, but without much success. As originally conceived, of course, the betting exchange was modelled in financial exchanges: you place a (possibly unmatched) order (to buy/sell) at a certain price, and for a certain amount. Although this is not a very complex idea - and I'm sure that few recreational punters would have difficulty getting their heads around it - it does entail certain complications: what happens if I place my order to buy, and it's not matched? What happens to the unmatched order (particularly if it's still unmatched when the relevant in-play event starts)? How do I subsequent control/manage the unmatched order? Etc, etc. For seasoned users of Betfair, of course, these are all very simple matters. But actually, if you think about it, there is quite a lot to learn. Even more intelligent people will probably take a few days/weeks, to fully grasp the detailed mechanics of placing and managing orders. And if you want to do much more sophisticated stuff using the API, of course, this learning process could take many months.

There is a fundamental, possibly unsolvable problem here. Recreational punters are after a bit of fun. If they have to spend ages trying to 'learn' how to use the exchange, that's going to feel too much like hard work, and they'll just go elsewhere.

The fact is that the exchange popularity and user numbers were rising from the moment the exchange started until the moment they implemented the very first dreaded premium charge.  That suggests that there is definitely a demand for a good quality, reliable  and liquid exchange where commission is the only charge people ever have to worry about.

There are big gaps in the market for sure.

One thing that surprises me is nobody has created a niche exchange. By niche I mean, specializing in just one popular sport (Football for example) and nothing else whatsoever. No gimmicks, no silly casino nonsense.

It doesn't need to be sophisticated or flashy looking, it needs only to be harnessed with good liquidity, simple to use and a one-level commission rate that is always kept low but fair.

The internet is perfect for niche start-ups, it doesn't need to be hugely profitable, just a good moderate consistent earner for the small team running it and customers treated as valuable assets, rather than cash cows like they are on here.

Some people will say that isn't possible for a variety of reasons, but I truly believe there is a real strong desire (more now than ever) among exchange users to be treated fairly and that the moment the right models become available, bang goes Bf's outdated "great white shark swallows all" greed mentality.

"new exchange" "it needs only to be harnessed with good liquidity"

And therein is the problem. I've not looked recently but Betducks lack of liquity was the primary offputting thing.

would be a great marketing ploy too - 'only want footy, come to us!'

Stu....Yep, that is exactly what I meant.  Football, Tennis and Horses. All of these could have a core niche base of players.

Speaking purely for my own activity, 95% of what I do on here is Football or Tennis related, virtually nothing else. The sportsbook is of zero interest to me and in all honesty, i find it a bit insulting given the pricing is laughable compared to whats available elsewhere. As for the The games and Casino rubbish I never even look at those.

I would be gone in a shot if a quality liquid market with low comm was available in a niche trading site for either of my sports.

Agree with Sheppy123 also, more will come and if they aren't exchange models, something new and innovative based along the same philosophy will arrive instead, because what we are seeing here at BF is only good for the company now, the clients have been de-valued and that is very dangerous.

I am not so much talking about the specifics of why liquid markets can and can't work or who drives them, I am talking about a fair exchange, Fair for the client, fair for the owners, positive upsides for all and a community spirit that once existed here. This is perfectly viable within a smaller company structure, with the focus on everybody's best interests.

And perhaps more importantly, this is what I see becoming the most important aspect to any start-up in 2013 and beyond. People have become tired of corporate models, and the grow, grow, grow until you swallow everything and everyone mentality. It is going to die, I see this all the time in other business ventures i am involved with. The same core issue. People no longer want that, they want a fair exchange of energy, a win-win mentality, not a winner-takes-it-all.

The one thing the internet is great for, is allowing space for small enterprises and new ideas to fit into gaps in corporate controlled arena's and set up on low funding with a small team. I just believe this area here is ripe for the picking like never before.

You have a considerable number of people here now that are basically packed and waiting by the door, so to speak, ready to leave as soon as it is opened.

agree that the exchange these days is carrying to much bulk .

EPL,La Liga,Champions league football matches only domestically, horseracing and top events only regarding rugby and tennis .


totally cluttered up at the moment ..looks like a dogs dinner

And if you are now subject to the penalistic PC because you essentially have made over 250,000 pounds by fleecing punters in these sucker markets, then just be grateful that BF came along in the first place and gave you that wonderful, one off opportunity.
Those days are well and truly over, much to the benefit of the majority on here, even if some of them probably still don't realize it.
Markets evolve, players become more savvy, and " free rides" always get closed down.
C'est la vie.

... FAFH obviously trolling ..

"--sure glad it came along---"

That you're not qualified to find meaningful work in the non gambling world.
You sound pretty bright and buzzy to me.

I'm fine Coach.
I do understand and empathize with your predicament.
I'm a bit like you in my liking for working with numbers. Not much else interests my brain.
However, fortunately for me, I made a completely undeserved packet outside of the gambling world with my " skills" ( I use that word reservedly)and hence now only need to do things that interest me without the pressure of having to do them necessarily well and profitably.
Hence the key difference between me and a lot of others on here.
I know that a lot on here are quite often annoyed by my seemingly dismissive comments on their concerns over BF matters. I try not to be too casual about the whole evolving BF scenario, and the material effects it is  clearly having on the livelihoods of many people, but sometimes I fail miserably, that I know too well.

yeh you sound very similar to me coachbuster, ive been doing this full time for about 10 years

and as FAFH says, the good old days are well and truly over. i had a great period between 2004 and 2009 and

was basically printing money but then the pc kicked in at 20 then 40% and most of the markets i played on

literally dried up and its been a struggle for the past 2 years. if i was able to bet without the pc, i still wouldnt

make the money i used to but would certainly get a reasonable living. ive tried the purple one, but lack of markets

and mainly liquidity in running is such a pain.

I like anything to do with stats, odds and sport so clearly this my dream job.

i suppose i will just chug along and try and grind out something and hope for things to change either on this site

or another.

Well stu.
         First of all ,if you have to give betfair 40-50-60 percent when you win you have to find another way to get your bets on.If your playing with a bot that is a success i suppose you will let it run,as anything is better than nothing.But what has happend is a lot of pc players have gone elsewhere hence not a lot is being left in betfair,that in turn sends the smaller player away as there is no doe in a lot of markets.I do not use a bot, but i used to leave thousands of pounds in different markets now i leave nothing.I would say before the tax came 95 percent of my betting was on betfair now i hardly use them.The decline of a once great company has only happened becourse of the unacceptable pc tax.

£10 matched all in stalls.