General Betting
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Do tipsters bring the price down?
Do tipsters bring the price down?
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Replies: 123
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Wouldn't surprise me one bit. If odds compilers didn't copy each other and formed their own prices independently I reckon you'd have such a difference the vast majority of the time. Of course it depends on the complexity and subjectivity of the event.
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well, you'd want to know in what sense they were both pros. even if the "true" price is unknowable, it's a logical necessity that at least one of them's at least 3%+ out.
so either that's a rare miscalculation, or at least one of them's going to prove in the slightly longer term not to be a professional after all. |
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clydebank makes a good point, theres too much copying of outright odds these days..a few years ago at the racecourse, across the line of bookies it would be commonplace to see about the favourite.. 7/4, 15/8,2/1,9/4, 5/2...these days it would be 15/8 across the board
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I get the feeling that it'd be far easier to make money if the bookies didn't copy each other.
I hate to use the word "arbitrage" but trading would be easier. |
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.a few years ago at the racecourse, across the line of bookies it would be commonplace to see about the favourite.. 7/4, 15/8,2/1,9/4, 5/2...these days it would be 15/8 across the board
A ridiculous post. You clearly never went racing. If you did, you would see just a couple of books open up, in this case 7/4, no response, then 15/8, then 2/1, some nibbles, maybe a little 9/4, knock over back to 15/8, taken, the others join in now the market has settled, we would have all 5 books showing either 7/4 or 15/8, post time the firms move in to shorten up the fav SP 13/8. |
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A ridiculous post. You clearly never went racing. If you did, you would see just a couple of books
open up, in this case 7/4, no response, then 15/8, then 2/1, some nibbles, maybe a little 9/4, knock over back to 15/8, taken, the others join in now the market has settled, we would have all 5 books showing either 7/4 or 15/8, post time the firms move in to shorten up the fav SP 13/8. ok then .apart from every single racecourse in the country, travelling with various bookies, clerks, tic tacs etc..but no youre right, carry on |
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You may have been to a thousand race meetings but you never, ever
saw 5 different bookmakers showing 5 different prices for the favourite. |
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so out of 50 plus bookies they all used to show identikit odds? even in the 70's and 80's when bookies werent scared to have an opinion or stand a bet? come on man
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as an example you would get the fledgling twopence halfpenny bookies at the back going as skinny as possible, the ones in the middle outdoing them and the prominent front row/rails bookies going the bigger odds
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It doesn't happen. I shall have a look when I am working
at Newmarket this weekend and it won't happen. 5 different prices for the favourite at the same time? lol. |
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whats the point of having a look now? ive already said it doesnt happen nowadays, im referring to 70's and 80's
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I didn't say all the bookmakers show the same price, you said
5 bookmakers show different prices for the favourite, at the same time. That doesn't happen. |
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ken wash your ears out, scoms not saying it happens now , it doesn't , thats the whole point, in the 80s when i went regularly the odds were all over the shop , i can recall at cheltenham tearing around to get the best price, because a) certain bookmakers would take a stand eg oppose the favourite and b) others were balancing their books by amending the odds cos of weight of money on their book ie now on course bookmakers know what price to open at cos they're on the exchanges and they know they can lay any bets at these prices
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truth is probably somewhere between ken and scom, i remember first shows and most of them didnt even chalk up prices for many horses they had worries about
even bookies extel service reported favourites as no offers... ffs 5 mins before the race and the fav is no offers in the shops !!! |
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bookies in different areas had different methods, my local bookie wouldnt take sp on scottish tracks, or lay any price over 25/1 as he reckoned they were all crooks, lol
and he was worse than any of them.... |
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extel
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sweetchildofmine, your post at 09:23 yesterday should be the other way
round. The backline books have to go the bigger price, how would they take any money unless they pull the prices? lol. |
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trust me the backline bookies dont go the bigger prices and yes custom is poor but they are very reluctant to best price the bigger bookies
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they try and make up for this by accomodating small punters to £1,£2 bets etc that the bigger boys wont take
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Trust me, you really have no idea.
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"trust me the backline bookies dont go the bigger prices and yes custom is poor but they are very reluctant to best price the bigger bookies"
Sweetchild, Is that right? I must admit, my instinct was the same as Kenilworth's. I haven't been racing, other then the major festivals for some years now but when I used to regularly go, around 1997-2002, I got the impression the back of the ring books would sometimes (although not always) be more willing to sneak an extra point up for a punter, especially one who asked. This was obviously a time when "dead mans boots" had just been eradicated with the pitch auctions etc and not to mention, either before Betfair or in its early days so some of dynamics are probably different but curious to how it appears & operates now. |
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If you want to take any money betting in the 2nd row, you have
top the main men selectively, betting to an opinion, and most of the time your opinion is no better than anyone else, so near impossible to make it pay even on busy days. As it happens these days, there are only a few courses with two lines, and during the week only one. It's a very tough game. |
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Kenilworth,
Although I believe a lot of that is true, I used to know one bookie who had less then ideal pitches at various courses and with a lot of hard work and some ingenuity, was often nearly as busy as the prime pitches. Of course, Im talking about 10-15 years ago and this required a certain amount of ability to make it work but it showed to me that more things were possible then the status quo would have it. (On a side note, regarding your "top the main men selectively" bit, he used to use the phrase "hands in pockets" instead but in essence, meant the same thing. In fact, its good advice for all bookies, especially new entrants, in general anyway.) |
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im not going to argue with you kenilworth, you have your view i have mine, the last thing a decent thread needs is a slanging match, so lets respect it
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lost again SCOM you fool
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stalky's in meltdown , lets have a sweep on which day hejik gets banned , i'm going for wednesday
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SCOM you forgot to log on as yourself you fool. This Green Envy character is probably the dullest character ever invented.
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hahahaha - amend that to tuesday - come on hejik my little jester entertain us before you go
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no more today as I have a life - have a nice day moderating & eating pizza SCOM
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yeah its roast today at the doncaster home for the infirm and unbalanced, a rare treat for hejik
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I would be very surprised to find two professional punters
varying from 2.5 to 2.9, the difference being about 6% of a 100% book. Imv this is highly possible for two different punters on the horses w/ completely different edges--even 2.38 to 3.2. The race might be a novice hurdle or other class of event on which both punters break even. Sheppy (who has got a lot of guidance out of you all) has to ask h/s how much he wants to win. Wd he be prepared not to bet for three years to 'go back to school' to get past arithmetic and onto statistics? If he wants to win on the horses (or almost anything else) here, he is going to be playing against people w/ a lifelong connection to the sport, long-term bettors and maths PhDs. |
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JPG, I used to bet on the second line and quite often got
a move up on a Saturday or a Bank holiday, to the front line and believe me, the difference in trade was staggering, at times taking bets at lower prices than behind me, which showed the strength of the front line, as many punters just go to the nearest joint, having a bet without looking at prices. I made my racecourse betting pay but the exes were the killer, around £300+ per day, which over 6 races, I had to win £50 per race just to get level, not easy when you are betting 4/5% on most races. Still, the fresh air was good and I used to enjoy my pint when finished!! sweetchildofmine ''doesn't want to get into an argument with me'' Well an argument with me would be a first, as the only thing you ever do regards my posts is disagree on everything I say, to a degree it can be quite funny. |
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the exes were the killer
The time has surely come when racecourses will pay bookies to come to the course. They can charge Leicester-style heavy entrance fees for 'punters' lounges' w/ superfast broadband and a good view of the action. |
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askan, perhaps I meant very unlikely that two
seasoned pros would disagree 6%, unlikely but not impossible. |
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I'd guess that winning players' tissues have huge differences one to the other--so great that an exchange like bf wd see hugely greater liquidity if it had morning markets.
The markets are tumbleweed b/c the layers who make up a significant portion of the main market want to price-find as cheaply as poss. i.e. w/out laying any serious money. Anyone w/ a serious information edge, meanwhile, as opposed to a judgment- or stats-based pricing advantage, will have avenues to exploit this via the bookies. There are things that bf cd do with the morning markets to get people betting w/ them, such as making the tick size comparable to that of bookies or reducing commission for price offerers. I'd guess they don't want to do it as their strategy is to follow their opposition and run a sportsbook. |
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Kenilworth,
Oh don't get me wrong, Im more then convinced that moving to a prime position will instantly bring noticeable changes for a bookie, just that I know of at least one guy (albeit some time ago as I stated) that could at least do better then his fellow 2nd line peers through some ingenuity and sheer hard work. I know many don't possess those qualities, at least to a relevant extent, that is why I was curious to hear from sweetchild that back line books were still reluctant to go a point/tick higher. |
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jpg iv been racing for years, not so much now with front and back line bookies, and the back line bookies were extremely reluctant to go a better price about a horse than the bigger guys on the advanced lines, they were more than happy to take the mug cash, the casual racegoers 5 and 10 pound bets..im not saying i agree with their stance but thats the way it was in my experience, i know kenilworth will return with ''im right youre wrong'' but i can only speak as i find
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The back line books don't top the front line books
because there is not enough margin to enable them to do so. The best they will do is lay at the price already layed by the front line, but definitely not bigger, and most definitely not on their own. Nowadays they have the buffer of the exchanges to bet back,and they won't go bigger than the machine prices. Some of them lay short ones on the exchanges as they can take exactly what they want, and cheaper say 1.95 about a 10/11 chance when they would have to go 1/1 on course. JPG, I can't comment on what your friend was doing without knowing exactly what it was. What I tried to do where possible was to always accommodate the smaller bets (£5/£10 etc) thinking it was better to take say £300 from maybe 30 punters than a single bet of £300 from one punter, finding that that they came back to you later on. Also I never had a minimum stake. Yesterday at Newmarket I saw a rails book refuse a bet as it was below his minimum. He was doing nothing at the time! |
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I think this thread has degenerated into a squabbling match, devoid of anything much to say about the original question.
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no moves, it happens when some poster decides to offer an opinion
or a claim that is clearly seen as false by others, provoking a response, on top of that there are the mischievous and it's clear who they are, it's almost always the same people. |