General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 123 comments are related to the topic:
Do tipsters bring the price down?
Do tipsters bring the price down?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 123
|
By:
wouldnt mind getting access to elliotts tips on a monday..im not keen enough to pay for them though
|
|
By:
I don't know whether anybody else thinks like me (for your sake - hopefully not!) but for years I've struggled with several thoughts on horse racing. I'll attempt to explain...
With other sports such as tennis. snooker etc. you know exactly how a player is doing cos they're playing pretty much every week, BUT horses only run every so often, sometimes months inbetween races. It seems like a lot can happen in that time so how do we know what it's current state is like? The trainer might say it's good and the media might rave about it, but to me they don't run enough to be able to work things out well enough? Please tell me I'm wrong, it'll make me feel better! |
|
By:
as well as betting on golf i played alot of golf and wherever handicap systems are in operation there are plenty of people that will milk the system..
a little knowledge can be very rewarding my father in law lived next to a small stable, when they were getting one ready he would know as the horse would be ridden vigourously up an incline that he could see, that information was always welcome |
|
By:
simply, just avoid horses that havent run for lengthy periods unless the market vibes say otherwise..there are a few trainers where a long time out doesnt matter so much, you'll have to do some research but off the top of my head david pipe and alan kings horses can run very well after a significant break
|
|
By:
donny - WOW you've given me a great idea! I'll just go and live near some stables!
sweetchildofmine - I get it. So basically you're going off the trainer more than the actual horse itself? Do any of you guys actually know (most of the time) that a horse's price (or anything for that matter) will go down after you've backed it? I've thought things like "McCoy is on it, it's bound to go down" only to see that nobody's interested in it! |
|
By:
if only we knew when a horses price went down we would all be rich, however if you back a horse before the off at say 6.5, and you know its a confirmed front runner, you could put in a lay at around 5.0, and the chances are it will hit your lay price soon after the off..its not an exact science though, if it misses the break youre struggling
|
|
By:
SWOM - Thanks for the reply.
What I meant was, what percentage can people get it right? Obviously if it was very high, you'd make a profit. Most of the things I back, I manage to lay BUT because hardly any of them win I don't make a profit. This might be cos I do it with big odds cos the money difference. At a £2 stake, Back 21 Lay 20 etc. is £2 as opposed to 40p for 6.8 - 6.6. |
|
By:
theres no click and win with the horses, you have to serve a long apprenticeship, go through the highs and lows, it takes years to get to the bottom of all the variables and intricities
|
|
By:
I think what I'm after is some kinda strategy that is unique to Betfair. When you compare the BF odds to the bookies it looks like a cert to profit, BUT strangely it's not! I used to think that the bookies prices were right, and Betfair's were wrong meaning I could get an edge. BUT now, I've realised that BF is more right damn it!
If a horse was 17 with the bookies and 21 with BF I could get my head around it, BUT sometimes they could be much more! 100+ For months I was backing these horses thinking it was total value, but now I've realised that it's not the way to go. I started paper trading and it was going well so I jumped in for real and disaster struck! Paper trading can get boring and I only did it for a few weeks. |
|
By:
paper trading is no substitute for the real thing..use 2 pound stakes whilst youre learning
|
|
By:
it's best to look at something like this as a kind of meta-problem, imo. ie, not "what strategy is going to work on betfair for horses?" but "how easy is a winning horses strategy on BF likely to be to find and implement?"
this is a problem I would analyse as follows: *people have up to a 12 year headstart on me. *some people involved have advantages I can't replicate (technological or informational) *the amount of attention paid to the problem is likely to be proportionate to the amount of money involved, which is large. all those things would lead me to think that even looking is likely to be a waste of resources. |
|
By:
Thanks viva, I've thought pretty much everything you've said and it makes perfect sense.
BUT, I can't accept it! Like many people on here I keep trying different strategies and lose more money. I think I'll only give up when I'm broke! I definitely need to question the big odds more though. I've got this terrible habit of jumping straight in! It's like I'm worried that somebody's gonna beat me to it! The thing is, I'm not trying to become rich. It's the magical feeling of getting an edge I hunger for! |
|
By:
In answer to the OP question, certain tipsters affect the price(s)
Kevin Pullein for one, also Tom Segal another for the simple reason that they seek out out wrong prices, as that is where the profit comes from, anyone can guess at the outcomes. |
|
By:
''kevin pullein for one''
 did you really just type that?? |
|
By:
Thanks kenilworth!
I read a book by Kevin Pullein, and although it was really interesting, the way he works things out is like rocket science! I'm gonna look further into the variables that bring the prices down. |
|
By:
sheppy123,
You admitted elsewhere (I think) that maths is not your strong point. Do you not think that that will make it rather difficult for you to outwit the Betfair markets? |
|
By:
4/6 Italy u21s with Skybet v Israel sheppy. Won't last till tomorrow NAP
|
|
By:
4/9 now and the moral is be prepared, be alert and move quickly.
|
|
By:
Thanks for the advice guys. Been messing about with my horse racing database. Only got 6 months of data so need more. My programming skills aren't very good, even though I've been doing it since the 80s. I get there in the end but it always takes ages. It's funny (well not that funny!) that my program wasn't working correctly and I thought I'd found a profitable system damn it!
Contrarian - You're spot on, my maths skills are useless! There's been times where my calculations have lost me money due to overlaying etc. CLYDEBANK - I'm impressed how you knew the price was gonna go down! I didn't think anybody cared about under 21's football! I personly think Errani is good odds @ 32 to win the tournament, what do you think? |
|
By:
great call clydebank
|
|
By:
you don't need to be good at maths to make money on BF, imo.
obviously it helps, but it's not essential. |
|
By:
Totally agree Viva. For what sheppy123 is trying to do though - some form of data mining - it's certainly quite important.
Of course, it also depends on how big your operation is. If you're a one-man band, then it's (normally) important. If you're larger than that, you can always employ a mathematician. |
|
By:
Need and essential are strong words, but I'd say that poor mathematical and statistical skills must be a big handicap.
|
|
By:
I feel like I'm very absent minded. Some people double check things, I tend to do it lots of times. I need to find a way of improving my focus and concentration etc. I am also a bag of frustration cos of my personal problems and that affects things.
I spend hours messing about with data and stats etc. and can't find any winning angles BUT I guess I enjoy it so I'll keep on going... Here's one for you... I may be missing something here but Ferrer is 1.71, Tsonga is 2.38. So there's about a 40% difference. So shouldn't there be about a 40% for Tsonga to win the tournament. Ferrer is 13, Tsonga is 13.5. Shouldn't Tsonga be more like 18??? Sorry to do your heads in like this! |
|
By:
If you and I were in that semi-final, and (let us suppose), you were a bit better than me, but still basically rubbish, then our odds to win the tournament would be identical (1000).
Not precisely the same as the situation here, but you get the point. |
|
By:
. . and, of course, the odds for our match might be 1.7/2.4
|
|
By:
I know nothing about tennis, or these players, but it might be the case that Ferrer has a good head to head record against Tsonga, but that Tsonga has won more matches against Nadal and Djokovic.
|
|
By:
Thanks for the help, it's much appreciated!
Tsonga's odds are now identical to Ferrer's to win the tournament, I just don't get it! The only thing I can think of is that people have had a sudden urge to back Tsonga for the title. Hold on, something is coming to me... Tsonga is French so maybe if he was in the final he'd have the crowd behind him? It doesn't justify the odds though? |
|
By:
*people have up to a 12 year headstart on me.
this is a good point |
|
By:
sheppy I only have a passing interest in tennis and very rarely bet on it, although funnily enough I had this conversation with my youngest son who has been watching a bit of the tennis a couple of days ago. He asked me who was the better player Tsonga or Ferrer. Without having any idea of the odds I said from my passing knowledge that I thought Ferrer was probably the better player and that I thought he was probably the marginal favourite because he is more consistent, but I added this. That Tsonga would probably have a better chance in the final as he had bigger weapons that might trouble the big 2.
All that said, I think it's probably overdone and that either a lay of Tsonga or a back of Ferrer on the outright is a value bet. Problem is I don't know which one it is as I don't have more than a passing interest, although I suspect it's a lay of Tsonga. This is partly on the basis that I think betting momentum from Tsonga's high profile victory over Federer may have skewed the outright prices. |
|
By:
Thanks CLYDEBANK29, that was a great reply!
I too don't have a massive interest in tennis except for big tournaments like this one. That's interesting about Tsonga's price being skewed due to beating Federer. I bet this happens a lot? I remember when Murray got the gold last year, the first thing I thought of was SPOTY. I thought he would win it cos of this. So I started putting quite a bit on him. Later on that day I was horrified to see that his odds had doubled. About a week later they were massive! It was like people had suddenly come to their senses?!? You've given me another strategy here! |
|
By:
Kenilworth :-"...... wrong prices,as that is where the profit comes from,anyone can GUESS at outcomes".The whole truth,and nothing but the truth.
|
|
By:
prices are guesswork too...you have two pro punters for example, punter A thinks the current price of the derby favourite of 2.7 is too short and should be 2.9, punter B reckons 2.7 is a great price and makes it a 2.5 shot...now, who is to say which punter is correct? value is in the eye of the beholder
|
|
By:
Just picking winners without price consideration will not show a long term profit.
|
|
By:
I would defy anyone to win betting on football
without referring to the betting. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in dreamland. |
|
By:
prices are guesswork too...you have two pro punters for example, punter A thinks the current price of the derby favourite of 2.7 is too short and should be 2.9, punter B reckons 2.7 is a great price and makes it a 2.5 shot...now, who is to say which punter is correct? value is in the eye of the beholder
Is the form of your argument: it is possible for people to hold different beliefs about X, therefore X is subjective? |
|
By:
well for once i agree with you old boy, in fact i would go as far as to say that no-one has ever won on football betting without referring to the betting , in fact i would go as far as to say that no-one has ever lost on betting on football without referring to the betting, wise words indeed
|
|
By:
prices are guesswork too...you have two pro punters for example, punter A thinks the current price of the derby favourite of 2.7 is too short and should be 2.9, punter B reckons 2.7 is a great price and makes it a 2.5 shot...now, who is to say which punter is correct? value is in the eye of the beholder
the person with the long term profit on his profit loss is likely to be correct about which is value, but it doesnt mean that he will be on the winner and it doesnt mean on any given event he will be correct about the value nobody is perfect |
|
By:
anyone's outright price in a knockout tournament is essentially a multiple of the remaining games they have to win. so it's based on their ability and their probable route to the title.
you can have an easy next opponent and still be in the hard side of the draw. |
|
By:
I would be very surprised to find two professional punters
varying from 2.5 to 2.9, the difference being about 6% of a 100% book. |