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Guessing on FOOTBALL bets and not just going against the grain

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Replies: 1,661
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 14:23
GAME 1

    Fixtures 20 August / Shakhter Karagandy v Celtic / Half Time/Full Time     Draw/Celtic     Lay         20-Aug-13
14:11           5.5     24.00         5.5     20-Aug-13 14:11
========================================================================================

KO at 4.00 pm.....in KHAZAKSTAN .

Interesting factor is the match will be played on artificial surface.

AS home side beat BATE in previous KO games....winning both legs 1-0 , then CELTIC likely to be up against a team that defends reasonably well and are likely to find it hard to score against them away.

A 0-0 DRAW suits home team, but I suspect they will go for early goal on the artificial surface ....trying hard to exploit the artificial surface early in game when CELTIC might be more likely to err on such surface. So IMO a goal likely 1st half, thus the lay on DRAW/CELTIC.

MGOFS is 1-0 or 1-1.

GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 16:14
14'    Shakhtyor Karagandy    1-0 (-)    Celtic FC


They have their early goal ...so leaving position alone....til nearer HT....then likely to back HT DRAW as hedge re initial bet.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 16:39
Fixtures 20 August / Shakhter Karagandy v Celtic / Half Time    
    The Draw (HT)     Back     29114581229     20-Aug-13
16:15           6     8.00         6     20-Aug-13 16:37
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 16:51
1-0 at Ht..... so initial bet part won.

Not "clear" on how game goes from here.....but CELTIC seem to be creating crossing chances....and they may well score....but home team also devious enough to grab a 2nd......Hard to see CELTIC winning.....but DRAW could happen.......so may have a lay bet on 1-0 later in game.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 17:02
Oh to h.......I'm laying 1-0 ....as feel a goal will come from either.

   
Fixtures 20 August / Shakhter Karagandy v Celtic / Correct Score    
    1 - 0     Lay     29115853290     20-Aug-13
17:01           4.6     24.00         4.53     20-Aug-13 17:01
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 17:35
79'    Shakhtyor Karagandy    2-0 (1-0)    Celtic FC



Poor performance from CELTIC ...not giving 100% effort!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 17:43
GAME 2

    Fixtures 20 August / Wigan v Doncaster / Half Time/Full Time     Draw/Draw     Lay         20-Aug-13
17:41           8     24.00         8     20-Aug-13 17:41    
=========================================================================

Just believe the clash of styles of play will lead to a winner at FT. MGOFS 3-1.


GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 17:50
GAME 3

Fixtures 20 August / Lyon v Sociedad / Correct Score     0 - 1     Back     20-Aug-13
17:49           14.5     6.00         14.5     20-Aug-13 17:49    
    Fixtures 20 August / Lyon v Sociedad / Over/Under 1.5 Goals     Over 1.5 Goals     Back         20-Aug-13
17:48           1.37     72.00         1.37     20-Aug-13 17:48    
=============================================================================

Just believe the away team will score....and fair chance 2 goals in game. MGOFS 2-1.


Gl with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 17:56
GAME 4

    Fixtures 20 August / PSV v AC Milan / Half Time/Full Time     Draw/PSV     Lay         20-Aug-13
17:52           7.8     24.00    


Just likely one of them wins.....but hopefully at Ht one is ahead. MGOFS 1-2.


===================================================================================



GAME 5
    7.8     20-Aug-13 17:52    
    Fixtures 20 August / Pacos Ferreira v Zenit St Petersburg / Half Time/Full Time     Draw/Pacos Ferreira     Lay         20-Aug-13
17:51           14.5     24.00         14.5     20-Aug-13 17:51


Just believe ZENIT will be strong 2nd half. MGOFS 1-3.


GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 20:26
G 4 Currently 0-1 ...so backing DRAW HT to hedge a bit on initial lay on DRAW/PSV.




Fixtures 20 August / PSV v AC Milan / Half Time    
    The Draw (HT)     Back     29123961194     20-Aug-13
20:24           7.2     8.00         9.4     20-Aug-13 20:24    
    =============================================================


G 5 Also 0-1 ..and similar bet here.
Fixtures 20 August / Pacos Ferreira v Zenit St Petersburg / Half Time    
    The Draw (HT)     Back     29123878452     20-Aug-13
20:22           12     6.00         12     20-Aug-13 20:22
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 20:29
G 2...Currently 0-1 ....DONCASTER ...and trying to get matched on HT DRAW as hedge against the initial lay on DRAW/DRAW.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 20:29
Fixtures 20 August / Wigan v Doncaster / Half Time    
    The Draw (HT)     Back     29123714009     20-Aug-13
20:19           7     8.00         7     20-Aug-13 20:28
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 20:34
G 2 ...now

42'    Wigan Athletic0-2Doncaster Rovers


So part profit made on initial lay on DRAW/DRAW.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 20:36
GAMES 4 and 5 ...similarly part profit made on both

HT    Paços de Ferreira    0-1 (0-1)    Zenit St Petersburg
       
UEFA CLQ    HT    PSV Eindhoven    0-1 (0-1)    AC Milan
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 20:43
GAME 3 ...currently 0-1 ....and just suspect the home team likely to equalise ...therefor a lay on away team and lay on 0-1 ...with small back on 1-2 as hedge .


   
Fixtures 20 August / Lyon v Sociedad / Correct Score    
    0 - 1     Lay     29124611443     20-Aug-13
20:41           4.6     24.00         4.6     20-Aug-13 20:41    
   
Fixtures 20 August / Lyon v Sociedad / Correct Score    
    1 - 2     Back     29124601337     20-Aug-13
20:41           8.2     5.00         8.2     20-Aug-13 20:41    
   
Fixtures 20 August / Lyon v Sociedad / Match Odds    
    Sociedad     Lay     29124590037     20-Aug-13
20:40           1.66     36.00         1.64     20-Aug-13 20:40
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 20:54
oh well ...now 0-2 REAL S.....so at least a couple bets landed.....but laying 0-2 ...as still a chance home team score...and already have 1-2 as cover for lay on away team.

   
Fixtures 20 August / Lyon v Sociedad / Correct Score    
    0 - 2     Lay     29124981953     20-Aug-13
20:53           4.1     15.00         3.85     20-Aug-13 20:53
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 21:36
RED CARD against LYON contributed to a small HIT on game over all.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 21:53
GAME 6

    Fixtures 20 August / Sport Recife v Nautico / Half Time/Full Time     Draw/Draw     Lay         20-Aug-13
21:50           5.9     33.00         5.72     20-Aug-13 21:50
====================================================================================

NAUTICO appear to struggle to score away from home.....but they probably will score tnight in 1st leg of COPA SUD tie.......as they will need to.

Home team appear to be capable of scoring goals......so clash of styles can lead to a winner FT....probably home team . MGOFS 3-1.


GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 22:05
GAME 7

    Fixtures 21 August / Guarani (Par) v Atletico Nacional / Half Time/Full Time     Draw/Guarani (Par)     Lay          20-Aug-13
22:00           8.4     24.00         8.4     20-Aug-13 22:00
=========================================================================

Away team appear a stuffy defensive team when away......and they are likely to be strong 2nd half, so just believe they won't lose the 2nd half. MGOFS 1-2.


GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 23:01
GAME 8

    Fixtures 20 August / Ceara v Guaratingueta / Half Time/Full Time     Draw/Guaratingueta     Lay          20-Aug-13
22:59           15     24.00         15     20-Aug-13 22:59
===============================================================

CEARA probably fancy winning this one....and likely to have a real go to win. Hopefully a goal comes 1st half. MGOFS is 2-1.


GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 23:06
GAME 9

    Fixtures 21 August / Univ Catolica (Chile) v Emelec / Half Time Score     1 - 1     Lay         20-Aug-13
23:04           11     24.00         11     20-Aug-13 23:04
===========================================================================

TIGHT game likely ...as home team probably cagey re conceding a goal.......and guessing they will try to win game in 2nd half last 20 mins. MGOFS 1-0 or 0-0.


GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 23:38
G 6 Currently

8'    Sport Club Recife/PE    1-0 (-)    Nautico/PE


so trying to get matched on HT DRAW to hedge initial lay on DRAW/DRAW.....
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 20 Aug 13 23:56
matched...   
Fixtures 20 August / Sport Recife v Nautico / Half Time    
    The Draw (HT)     Back     29127999800     20-Aug-13
23:37           6.6     11.00         6.6     20-Aug-13 23:54
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 00:39
G 7 ...currently 0-1 ...NACIONAL...so trying to get matched on DRAW at HT.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 00:41
MATCHED....BUT MADE A MISTAKE AND BACKED IT TWICEBlush

   
Fixtures 21 August / Guarani (Par) v Atletico Nacional / Half Time    
    The Draw (HT)     Back     29128756605     21-Aug-13
00:35           6.6     8.00         6.6     21-Aug-13 00:38    
   
Fixtures 21 August / Guarani (Par) v Atletico Nacional / Half Time    
    The Draw (HT)     Back     29128757532     21-Aug-13
00:36           6.6     8.00         6.6     21-Aug-13 00:38
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 00:43
G 9 ...currently 0-0...

27'    Universidad Católica    0-0 (-)    CS Emelec


so backed HT CS 1-1 to go all green.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 00:45
G 8........ CEARA might become a HIT on lay.........hopefully not!
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 00:46
G 9 Looks like came out the lay on HT 1-1 at reasonable time !


29'    Universidad Católica    1-0 (-)    CS Emelec
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 00:51
G 8 ....now

58'    Ceará SC/CE    1-0 (0-0)    Guaratinguetá/SP


so trying to back away team to eliminate liability on DRAW/GUAR
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 00:56
Just used £9 to cover liability + a bit more on CEARA match....so all green there.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 01:03
Into profit on all 4 matches....so G N the nooooooooooooo

72'    Ceará SC/CE
    2-0 (0-0)    Guaratinguetá/SP
       
    CON CSA    75'    Sport Club Recife/PE
    2-0 (2-0)    Nautico/PE
       
    CON CSA    HT    Club Guaraní
    0-1 (0-1)    Atlético Nacional
       
The best for in:play football betting! £50 Risk Free Bet!
    CON CSA    45+'    Universidad Católica
    2-0 (-)    CS Emelec
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 10:38
YESTERDAY RESULTS

Soccer: £110.77  PROFIT

Soccer     Showing 1 - 19 of 19 markets
Market     Start time     Settled date     Profit/loss (£)
Soccer / Guarani (Par) v Atletico Nacional : Half Time/Full Time     21-Aug-13 00:15     21-Aug-13 02:02     22.99
Soccer / Ceara v Guaratingueta : Match Odds     20-Aug-13 23:30     21-Aug-13 01:25     -9.00
Soccer / Ceara v Guaratingueta : Half Time/Full Time     20-Aug-13 23:30     21-Aug-13 01:25     22.99
Soccer / Sport Recife v Nautico : Half Time/Full Time     20-Aug-13 23:30     21-Aug-13 01:22     31.61
Soccer / Univ Catolica (Chile) v Emelec : Half Time Score     21-Aug-13 00:15     21-Aug-13 01:05     11.50
Soccer / Guarani (Par) v Atletico Nacional : Half Time     21-Aug-13 00:15     21-Aug-13 00:59     -16.00
Soccer / Sport Recife v Nautico : Half Time     20-Aug-13 23:30     21-Aug-13 00:16     -11.00
Soccer / Wigan v Doncaster : Half Time/Full Time     20-Aug-13 19:45     20-Aug-13 21:47     22.99
Soccer / PSV v AC Milan : Half Time/Full Time     20-Aug-13 19:45     20-Aug-13 21:37     22.99
Soccer / Pacos Ferreira v Zenit St Petersburg : Half Time/Full Time     20-Aug-13 19:45     20-Aug-13 21:37     22.99
Soccer / Lyon v Sociedad : Correct Score     20-Aug-13 19:45     20-Aug-13 21:37     -29.75
Soccer / Lyon v Sociedad : Match Odds     20-Aug-13 19:45     20-Aug-13 21:36     -23.04
Soccer / Lyon v Sociedad : Over/Under 1.5 Goals     20-Aug-13 19:45     20-Aug-13 20:53     25.52
Soccer / Wigan v Doncaster : Half Time     20-Aug-13 19:45     20-Aug-13 20:40     -8.00
Soccer / Pacos Ferreira v Zenit St Petersburg : Half Time     20-Aug-13 19:45     20-Aug-13 20:33     -6.00
Soccer / PSV v AC Milan : Half Time     20-Aug-13 19:45     20-Aug-13 20:33     -8.00
Soccer / Shakhter Karagandy v Celtic : Half Time/Full Time     20-Aug-13 16:00     20-Aug-13 17:50     22.99
Soccer / Shakhter Karagandy v Celtic : Correct Score     20-Aug-13 16:00     20-Aug-13 17:50     22.99
Soccer / Shakhter Karagandy v Celtic : Half Time     20-Aug-13 16:00     20-Aug-13 16:47     -8.00
Profit and Loss is shown net of commission.
All times are UKT     

     unless otherwise stated.
============================================================================================

LYON game RED CARD contributed to a loss on LAY on 0-2.....( the first lay on 0-1 "won").....Other than that match most games went the way I thought they might and a "good" profit made.

Not posting CUMULATIVE LOSS for thread until have clawed more back..........but have substantially reduced loss made, and now into more competitive matches I expect the "claw back" to continue.

GL with bets today.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 11:57
GAME 1  At Ht 1-1.....

   
Fixtures 21 August / Kashiwa v Al-Shabab (KSA) / Correct Score    
    1 - 2     Lay         21-Aug-13
11:56           8.4     24.00         8.4     21-Aug-13 11:56


Just believe home team will score 2nd half. MGOFS 3-2.

GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 12:01
GAME 2  At HT 0-0.


Fixtures 21 August / Kumamoto v Tokushima / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay          21-Aug-13
11:59           3.8     18.00         3.8     21-Aug-13 11:59

Hopefully one of them will try to win 2nd half and a goal can come. MGOFS is 2-0.


GL with bets.
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 12:04
GAME 3   IP at HT 0-0.


   
Fixtures 21 August / Mito v Fukuoka / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay         21-Aug-13
12:02           4.3     24.00         4.23     21-Aug-13 12:03
====================================================================================

Fair chance a goal comes 2nd half...probably from both sides. MGOFS 1-1   


GLWBs
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 12:10
G 2 ..bet landed on lay on 0-0.

53'    Roasso Kumamoto    1-0 (0-0)    Tokushima Vortis
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 12:11
AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH....goal not allowedSad
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 12:26
G 3.....................In again   
Fixtures 21 August / Mito v Fukuoka / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     29135145648     21-Aug-13
12:25           2.5     24.00         2.48     21-Aug-13 12:25
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 12:32
G 2.....in again on lay

   
Fixtures 21 August / Kumamoto v Tokushima / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     29135274026     21-Aug-13
12:31           1.95     33.00         1.94     21-Aug-13 12:31
By:
DFCIRONMAN
When: 21 Aug 13 12:40
In again on both games

   
Fixtures 21 August / Kumamoto v Tokushima / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     29135414003     21-Aug-13
12:39           1.58     66.00         1.55     21-Aug-13 12:39    
   
Fixtures 21 August / Mito v Fukuoka / Correct Score    
    0 - 0     Lay     29135403655     21-Aug-13
12:39           1.61     42.00         1.58     21-Aug-13 12:39    



Could be a costly start if no goals in either game.
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