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thanks , i never knew that
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Yes, of course, generating £150k-a-year in implied commission and all-but breaking even is an absolute doddle.
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I must admit that I have no experience of churning at this scale, but suppose you want to do it quick and easy and are prepared to sacrifice a bit of money. (Naturally you wouldn't do it in one big bet, think 100 60k bets on big football matches or something.)
Back Team A £6,060,000 @1.98 Lay Team A (using another market) £6,000,000 @2.00 Team A wins: Back win = 6,060,000*0.98*0.98 = 5,820,024 Lay loss = 6,000,000 Commission generated = 6,060,000*0.98*0.01+6,000,000*0.015 = 149,388 Sum = 5,820,024-6,000,000+149,388 = -30,588 Team A loses: Back loss = 6,060,000 Lay win = 6,000,000*0.98 = 5,880,000 Commission generated = 6,060,000*0.015+6,000,000*0.01 = 150,900 Sum = 5,880,000-6,060,000+150,900 = -29,100 So, a 30k loss to generate 150k commission like that, and that's 30k that would be subject to 60% PC, so only 12k really. Still so worth it if you can't do better, and don't tell me it would be difficult to get matched if you're willing to give up value like in this example. Very short payback time on that investment if you intend to keep using your account like before. |
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What market would you use to offset a match odds bet? Asian handicaps are usually pretty dead on here (of course the commission on these is 0.75 atm). Maybe you can use correct scores, over/unders, total goals but then you have the risk of an abandoned match and the prices usually do reflect that.
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Don't correct scores, over unders and total goals all have the same rules regarding abandoned match? I didn't think there was a difference whether someone bets on 'over 2.5 goals' or '3 goals or more'...
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Mr.Anderson
07 Jan 14 15:07 Joined: 07 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 386 | Blogger: Mr.Anderson's blog I must admit that I have no experience of churning at this scale, but suppose you want to do it quick and easy and are prepared to sacrifice a bit of money. (Naturally you wouldn't do it in one big bet, think 100 60k bets on big football matches or something.) Back Team A £6,060,000 @1.98 Lay Team A (using another market) £6,000,000 @2.00 Team A wins: Back win = 6,060,000*0.98*0.98 = 5,820,024 Lay loss = 6,000,000 Commission generated = 6,060,000*0.98*0.01+6,000,000*0.015 = 149,388 Sum = 5,820,024-6,000,000+149,388 = -30,588 Team A loses: Back loss = 6,060,000 Lay win = 6,000,000*0.98 = 5,880,000 Commission generated = 6,060,000*0.015+6,000,000*0.01 = 150,900 Sum = 5,880,000-6,060,000+150,900 = -29,100 So, a 30k loss to generate 150k commission like that, and that's 30k that would be subject to 60% PC, so only 12k really. Still so worth it if you can't do better, and don't tell me it would be difficult to get matched if you're willing to give up value like in this example. Very short payback time on that investment if you intend to keep using your account like before. I'm afraid it's not that easy as this strategy of Yours would incurre a loss of 180 k and not 30 k as you say. You forgot that you actually has to pay Commission on winning bets. So it would cost 180 k to get 150 k commission generated and this is just to move you down from 60 % to 40 % on future Premium Charge. Churning like this isn't even recommended if breaking even or making a small win before commission. It's only recommended if you have a strategy that actually makes money before commission and makes a small loss after commission. And of course if you can make money after commission, but that goes without saying... |
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Eddie: I have deducted 2% commission from both wins by multiplying with 0.98, so if I have made any mistake I don't think it's that.
Bingo: Weird how more people haven't been attracted by the low commission on Asian handicap, but there are matches when the turnover is pretty big. Draw No Bet-bets can be done in the match odds market. Match odds bets can be done in the HT/FT-market. For certain matches To qualify, Qualifying method, or Group winner etc. could be useful I suppose. I haven't thought about it that match since my commission generated is way above 10%, and always has been. My point btw, is that I don't expect there to be many active players left in the 60% bracket, not even courtsiders or corrupt jockeys (who probably wouldn't have any qualms about getting a fresh account), and all players who have reached 250k since the charge was introduced will have avoided it if they intended to keep using their account like before. |
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Team A wins :
Back win : 5.820.024,- after Commission Lay loss : 6.000.000,- Whick means a total loss of 179.976,- Team A loses : Back loss : 6.060.000,- Lay win : 5.880.000,- after commission Which means a total loss of 180.000,- |
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Yeah, but you also generate 150,000 commission which in my example means that you pay 150,000 less in premium charges.
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No, it will only take you Down from 60 % to 40 %, so you will only pay 50 k less on that 250 k win in your example.
And unless you keep on churning this way(losing money) you'll soon be up to 50 % and in a few years time back on 60 %. |
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Sorry, I made an error here.
Let me take a deeper look at this and come back to you... |
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Surely you don't pay any premium charge if for a certain period of time your commission generated is 60% of your gross profit for that same time period?
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Latalomne 04 Jan 14 14:49
...The alternative, as frog has highlighted, is to increase the bet placement delay. There are pros and cons to that, particularly in a fast moving sport, and, while that would offer protection for layers, it wouldn't necessarily improve things for price takers. There is a far, far better alternative, and that is to:- 1) Do away with the delay entirely 2) In-play bets are, by default, "fill or kill" (If you want to be a market-maker, you must choose a "keep bet") 3) Additionally, you may specify an in-running bet/lay range which is acceptable to you. Eg, if you specify 5% and, at the instant that your bet must be filled or killed, the back/lay spread is more than 5%, then your bet is killed. Under those circumstances I would be quite happy to bet in-running with slow pictures or no pictures. The fast-pics boys (market-makers) will keep the prices fair, and when they aren't fair, my bet won't get matched. |
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Ok, the alternative without rewriting the bet placement logic....
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Dear
Since November 13 last year, we have waived all Premium Charges from the Spanish Primera Division football markets as an offer to our Premium Charge customers. To date, more than 1800 of you have benefited from this offer. We are contacting you today to inform you that the offer now finishes on February 1 2014 – as scheduled. Please note that there is no Premium Charge on Rugby Union markets until June 1 2014, and you only have to pay 0.75% on Asian Handicap markets until May 24 2014. Any Primera Division markets that have been fully settled before 00:00:00 on February 1 2014 will not be included in your Premium Charge calculations. Thanks Betfair Customer Service |
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"To date, more than 1800 of you have benefited from this offer."
Just shows the utter lies Betfair spout about the miniscule number of active accounts affected by the Premium Charge. If 1800 are playing in such a specialist and obscure market what percentage of all PC players would that be? 10% perhaps, if your lucky? |
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* you're
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1800 PC payers all playing on Spanish football? I find 1800 active PC payers total a surprise. Not sure why they'd choose to inflate that number, mind you...
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Yes and their just the people it benefited, it cost me - I would have paid less pc without it.
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I thought Betfair said there was only a few hundred paying the PC?
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480 was the figure quoted for the higher rates of PC when they were announced, but a lot more on 20% obviously.
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"I thought Betfair said there was only a few hundred paying the PC?"
If that was the case, how would the total PC thieved from winning punters accounts finance the multi million pound budget used to generate new customers, as claimed by Betfair themselves? |
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In a public company surely it should be a matter of public record how much revenue comes from the premium charge. How critical is it the business?
They break it down by exchange, sportsbook etc and have in the past by sports. Surely its time to reveal on the truth on how much the PC generates. |
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Come on Betfair.You are half the way to admitting the PC charge does not work on any level and harms liquidity.
You haven't scared the people who pay it as most of us have moved our money and doing fine elsewhere.Let's have done with it and scrap the charge now and have a return to good honest liquidiy not this low volume large spreads meelarky. |
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ttt
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something not right there that why it ttt (to the top)
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ok spill beans right why someone on 40% pc make 20k to upward of 500k or more a year while small timers on 5 to 10k a year pay the same 40 % get it sorted it not right
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it all to lifetime thing which today is a lot harder than the past
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and why the no link to pc on acc on betfair only found in feedback that sick
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something very wrong there as the no pc link in acc
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forget it and chin up as we all 5 to 10k trying to pay the bills and nice thanks for 40 % for the work
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before u know it just that i just cant get a full time job due to my Disability and betfair change my life long live betfair i love u in those 12 years all i see it gone downhill sad i know yes the pc must be dumped
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long live betfair love u betfair it do change our world
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I wonder if BF's biggest punter ZR pays PC??...me somehow thinks not, and if not why not?
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wow what a robust thread this one is
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Why would 'ZR' not pay the PC if the way his entity bets attracts the charge?
From what I understand his group are punters. I would imagine they are exactly the type of customer Andrew Black designed Betfair for. The PC is a lazy charge because Betfair failed to remove market failure from the markets they operate. If there was no market failure there really would be no need for the PC. (i.e. people could not make money from courtsiding etc because the markets were tightened up). |
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Lazy? Or criminal?
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criminal
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frog, ZR the worlds biggest punter (t/o billions per yr) is a master negotiator , tying up all manner of rebates on totes, so the more he bets the more he gets back in rebates.....happy to back losers and still win......I believe that he would not cop ANY PC whatsoever.....and in that belief if doesn't pay neither should anyone.......this would be a great question for anyone in senior BF management
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btw they punt and lay , win and place the bots are at it constantly..............
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