Probability: how would you calculate this?

Er, how about the question:

With the difference of time just 5 minutes (65 v 60) + a coin toss shoot out:

- If a team is 2.00, what would be the odds for Money-line.

Sounds analogous to a football game with possible extra-time and penalties. Eg FA Cup final, 90 minute match result market and Overall Winners.

Agreed, but what is the starting point?

My thoughts:

Last night, I had a bet on the Chicago Blackhawks at 2.20 in 60 minutes.  The bet was successful.

I'm was in discussion with someone that had a bet on Money-line that was 1.70.

Same game/ same bet but my call was on RT and made roughly 70% more money.

Now, 65 minutes versus 60 minutes is a difference of 8%.  So someone is giving up, in my opinion, any edge and paying over the odds for it.

some teams must be better at shootouts


how would you price penalties, eng v germany at football



to compare your odds you can convert the markets to 100% book, and then compare without the bookies margin

Looking at the identical RT prices for New Jersey and Washington, initial thought was that i'd expect the Moneyline to consequently be the same for both as well, rather than 1.9 vs 2.02. However if Tie over 60 minutes is 4.0, the odds on a tie in an extra 5 minutes will be significantly sub 2 (be interesting to know what fraction of OT games go to a shootout); the shoot-out record will therefore be fundamental in shaping the ML prices. Only other factor could be a team based rule that applies in Overtime?

prices may also be changed by bookies due to weight of money, a big client , or a popular tipster

England v Germany shoot out?
5/6 whichever side go first.

You are going to need data. You need to know scoring rates in extra time and shoot out win probabilities all as a function of the strength of the teams.

can i have evens germany if england go first ?

please !

Anytime donny!

Yes, the data is there but my feeling on this is the following:

If you are going to bet on a team team, you need to have the confidence that they can do it without needing extra time or a shoot-out.

As well, the strike rate you need to attain if betting 3/5 would have to be, well, atleast 5 out of 8.

More so, the extra time in hockey is a mere 5 minutes.  So you are paying heavily for 5 minutes.  This is, in a sense, equivalent to betting each way on a 2/1 horse.

So how you put this into a mathematical formula?

a) first, starting point calculating the 1X2

b) then, once the odds are determined for Home Win / tie / Away win. 

Let's use this first game as a hypothetical:

WINNIPEG 3.25
PHILADELPHIA  2.00
TIE 4.30

This says the implied probability is around 23% for a tie.

Let's say both teams have played 20 games of which 3 each were in overtime.

Winnipeg's record: 0 wins and 3 losses in overtime
Philadelphia: 2 wins and 1 loss.

What would be the formula to go from
Regular time
to Money-line
?

The starting point surely has to be to take the regular time odds, remove the draw/tie and scale the odds back to 100%.

e.g.
WINNIPEG 3.25
PHILADELPHIA  2.00
TIE 4.30

becomes
WINNIPEG 2.62
PHILADELPHIA 1.62

From there, you've got to use your judgement about the chance of an overtime draw, then weigh up the teams' relative shoot-out strengths. Just scaling the regular time odds to 100% should give fair odds if you think both teams have an equal chance at shoot-outs.